I wrote:>>> Yes -- Chavez, or rather the Venezuelans, MUST think ahead to the future, when oil prices are going to fall and the "free ride" provided by oil scarcity rents will disappear <<<
Cristobal Senior-Ruiz writes: >Comment: The oil prices are going to fall? Why? Is the "magic" of the market going to alter the deep geology of the fields and produce more oil so that scarcity is eliminated? And China, India, Brazil's growth (and the ROW) is going to come to a halt? < the folks in favor of the Hubbert's Peak theory like empiricism, so I'll use it: market prices _usually_ go up and down rather than staying at a "permanently high plateau." There is no reason to expect things to change in the future. Julio wrote:>> It may be my temperament, but I tend to stress the exact opposite: The horrible thing about these oil rents is that they lead people to complacency by creating the impression that waste is affordable.<< Cristobal Senior-Ruiz: >Comment:This very condescending reasoning. It assumes that oil revenues when invested in physical and social infrastructure are being "wasted". Julio and you should show proof of this before making this accusation. < I can't speak for Julio, but I interpreted what he said as NOT referring to investment in "in physical and social infrastructure." Instead, I interpreted it referring to something else, like unneeded bureaucracy. I wrote:>>>But in context, I was discussing the likely small impact of not having economists on Chavez's team.<<< Cristobal Senior-Ruiz: >Comment: Well. if he is going to receive advices like the ones quoted above, then not having economists is to his benefit.< getting beyond the gratuitous insult, that was one of my points, too. Cristobal Senior-Ruiz continues: >But, more seriously, this again a strong assumption. Of course Venezuela has a team of very capable economists all schooled in the Structural economics of Ecla. No need for neo-classical economics or expertise in the FROP theory or the transformation problem, or thank god! < well, Michael Lebowitz had said that Chavez lacked economists. That was the premise of our discussion. Maybe I'm tired, but I'm little sick of being insulted on lbo-talk today. But don't worry, I don't take it personally. The use of insults usually means an effort to patch up weaknesses in reasoning. -- Jim Devine / "There can be no real individual freedom in the presence of economic insecurity." -- Chester Bowles
