To see photos of the crowd yesterday in Mexico City's Zócalo, click here:
http://www.jornada.unam.mx/2006/07/09/index.php
Marv wrote:
And I suppose a third reality which
has to be taken into account is that
the Mexican PRD, like the Brazilian
PT, may be able to elect their
candidates as President, but their
respective legislatures are still
firmly controlled by their political
opponents. They can't be expected to
enact much progressive legislation
unless this obstacle is removed.
Unlike the hapless Venezuelan
bourgeoisie, Lula and Obrador can't
count on the voluntary abstention from
the legislative arena of the Brazilian
and Mexican bourgeoisies or for them
to engage in recklessly unnecessary
coups and other provocative actions
which further antagonize the masses
and shrink their support.
In these elections, the PRD increased its, traditionally weak,
presence in congress. Marv is right that they will still be a
minority. But López Obrador has said, repeatedly, that he doesn't
consider an adverse congress as a valid excuse for a president not to
deliver on his promises. So he's setting the bar high for himself.
And since much hinges on his personal qualities, I'll say something
about his personal traits as a politician. I'm going to look like a
sucker, but I've gotten to think this guy is the real thing.
One reason why they fear him so much (in 2004, they removed his
constitutional immunity as Mexico City mayor and tried to prosecute
him criminally to keep him from running for office) is that he is a
man capable of advancing in what appear to be very constrained
political spaces.
How? Of course, the key is the organization and mobilization of his
popular base of support. But the interesting story is the way he
connects with his base -- the poor -- and how he administers that
political capital.
He's shrewd and calculating like any politician at that level, he uses
silence effectively, but what is disarming is that he has a robust
sense of morality in his actions -- a sense of what's "right" and
"fair" for him and Mexican politics and what's not -- that regular
people relate to. This is refreshing in a country where cynicism and
deceit prevail in politics. That's how he connects with regular
people.
If you ask folks what they like about him, they don't say, his
economic policies (although that is somewhat implicit). They say I
like that he is a straight shooter, without being unnecessarily
strident or "radical." He speaks truth to power. And he doesn't back
down when he thinks he's right or defending the interest of his
constituency. (On the other hand, if you ask Marcos what he doesn't
like about him [they've met and talked], Marcos will say that he
doesn't like the content of his politics.)
I believe him when he says he's not vengeful or rancorous. I've seen
videos of the guy at times of high pressure, and he looks incredibly
calm and at peace. It almost seems as if he's enjoying himself. He
seems to have no problem talking to political rivals, negotiating with
them on good faith. He is flexible, but not duplicitous. Everybody
-- friend or foe -- knows where he stands in each particular issue and
the range of he's willing to compromise.
When he reaches a compromise, he seems to be sure he can explain it
candidly to the people. If he feels the compromise is fair or really
necessary to advance, chances are the people will agree with him.
Since his enemies cannot prove that his moves are driven by personal
or petty political gain, he's a formidable force.
He studies history in detail. And he believes that, with the
constitutional prerogatives and resources at the president's disposal,
he can accomplish his agenda. He speaks with certainty, as if it's
done already. Is he right? It depends, I guess. Even though the
powers of the presidency have shrunk in the last 12 years, the power
of a Mexican president, with popular backing and artfully used, can
still be huge.
And then there's a law of unintended consequences.
Given the PRD's legislative status, what
initiatives and alliances would be open
to Obrador, if he were to succeed in his
electoral challenge, which would propel
the Mexican "dynamics of the class
struggle" forward? I'd be surprised if
the answers to this question bring any
sharp differences to light between Julio,
Yoshie, Doug, and Louis, but they might.
It would, in any case, advance the
discussion of what is realizable by the
Mexican left in current circumstances.
López Obrador has a very specific agenda in the area of economic
policy. Nothing particularly new, since he's been repeating his views
for a good while. If his performance as mayor of Mexico City is any
guide, in principle, his *entire* agenda is realizable within the
confines of Mexico's capitalism. But that's in principle.
What disturb the bourgeoisie are not his economic policies per se, or
their effects on their financial bottom line, but their effects on
their *political* bottom line -- on their power. One, these policies
steer resources to the people and thus empower them. And two, the
people are not passive receivers of benefits, but actors in
implementing these policies. For all the talk about his
"authoritarianism," López Obrador needs the involvement of people at
the grassroots. He does listen.
So, if he were to win (especially, in these contested circumstances),
I can anticipate that a good portion of the rich class would resist
his policies bitterly. That would unleash the "dynamics of the class
struggle" I mention. The possibilities are many. What can be
accomplished is only limited by the ability of the toiling masses to
advance, now with the presidency, but not "all the power," on their
side -- which depends on their organization, unity, etc. -- vis-a-vis
the ability of the opposition (assisted by Washington?) to resist
their advance.
* * *
I was asked online to elaborate on the relation with the U.S. I can
only repeat what López Obrador has said. Consistent with his slogan
("For the common good, the poor first") his primary focus is going to
be real people -- the workers who emigrate to the U.S.
Next, and connected to the previous point, he's going to push for a
NAFTA renegotiation to take into account Mexico's initial economic
disadvantage. He thinks he can persuade the U.S. and Canada to
suspend the removal of barriers to trade in corn and beans, food
staples in Mexico. He is saying it is in their best interest, for
instance, to prevent rural migration. Also, he'll defend industrial
capitalism (jobs) in Mexico against what he deems unfair competition
from abroad (mainly, the U.S.).
He's also said that he won't pursue a high profile foreign policy
agenda a la Castañeda/Fox -- "the best foreign policy is a sound
domestic policy," he's fond of saying. He said his foreign minister
will be Jose Maria Perez Gay. So it can be expected that the emphasis
on mutual respect, national sovereignty, and other traditional values
in Mexican foreign policy (before Jorge G Castañeda and Luis Ernesto
Derbez wrecked it) will be asserted.
He says that his favorite hero in Mexico's history is Benito Juárez,
the first (post-independence) Indian president in the history of this
continent. A guy who fought foreign interventions and most strongly
asserted Mexico's national sovereignty at a time (mid 19th century)
when Mexico was particularly weak.
Julio
