On Feb 4, 2007, at 4:35 PM, Jim Devine wrote:
I think the puzzle is solved when we realize that the stats aren't very good. I think the fourth quarter 2006 stats for the US will be much worse when the final estimates come out.
Why? What's the source of the error?
It's quite likely that 2007 will be a recession year. Consumer spending can't keep the US economy going much longer. Of course, I could be wrong about 2007, but if I am, it just pushes the problem back into 2008, which means a steeper recession.
And then what? More recession, or another recovery/expansion? Doug
