me:
> I think the puzzle is solved when we realize that the stats aren't
> very good. I think the fourth quarter 2006 stats for the US will be
> much worse when the final estimates come out.

Doug Henwood  wrote:
Why? What's the source of the error?

I don't know exactly, but nominal spending fell even as real spending rose.

> It's quite likely that
> 2007 will be a recession year. Consumer spending can't keep the US
> economy going much longer. Of course, I could be wrong about 2007, but
> if I am, it just pushes the problem back into 2008, which means a
> steeper recession.

And then what? More recession, or another recovery/expansion?

eventually a recovery/expansion (after consumer debts and other
depressive forces are worked off). The business cycle won't be
abolished until there is a qualitative change in the system of
production.
--
Jim Devine / "The truth is more important than the facts." -- Frank Lloyd Wright

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