Productivity Growth Rebounds, Easing Pressure on Labor Costs By BRIAN BLACKSTONE Wall Street Journal February 7, 2007 4:21 p.m.
WASHINGTON -- U.S. productivity growth rebounded during the fourth quarter of 2006, easing pressure on labor costs and suggesting that the economy still has the potential to generate strong growth without inflationary pressures. Separately, the National Association of Realtors said that after bottoming out in the fourth quarter of 2006, existing home sales are expected to rise over the coming two years, while new home sales and construction will remain subdued. Meanwhile, consumers increased their borrowing at a more modest pace in December as credit-card debt increased at the slowest rate in nine months. Nonfarm business sector productivity was up at a 3% rate between October and December, the Labor Department said Wednesday, versus a revised 0.1% decline in the third quarter, which was originally reported as a 0.2% gain. "This solid performance indicates the growth potential of the U.S. economy remains formidable and greater than economists and policymakers have been inclined to acknowledge," said Peter Morici, professor at the University of Maryland, in a research note. Productivity was up 2.1% on average for 2006 as a whole, its slowest annual growth pace since 1997, due largely to very weak second and third quarters last year. Productivity is output divided by hours worked. Mr. Morici attributed last year's second and third quarter results -- second quarter productivity grew just 1.2% -- to a combination of higher energy prices and the housing slump. "Those were temporal events, and productivity growth should be strong in the months ahead," Mr. Morici said. Unit labor costs -- a gauge of inflationary pressures -- rose by just 1.7%, down from an upwardly revised 3.2% in the third quarter. They were up 2.8% from the same quarter a year ago and up 3.2% on average for 2006 as a whole, the sharpest annual increase since 2000. Labor is the most important cost to production of goods and services. If not matched by productivity, higher labor costs must be either passed through by a company in the form of higher prices to its customers or absorbed in the firm's profit margins. The latest figures, however, don't reflect upward revisions the Labor Department made to 2006 nonfarm payrolls that point to more hours worked and, thus, slower productivity when the data are revised in March. Last quarter's productivity results were well above Wall Street expectations for a 2.1% gain. The robust fourth quarter productivity figures should ease some concerns that the U.S. economy's noninflationary growth potential is dropping significantly. The growth potential is calculated by adding annual productivity growth to labor force expansion. The labor force, which once contributed about one percentage point per year to potential, should slow in coming years as Baby Boomers retire. Once thought to be as high as 3.5% to 4%, the growth potential has been marked down in recent months by many private-sector as well as Federal Reserve staff economists. The Congressional Budget Office recently pegged the U.S. growth potential over the next 10 years at just 2.6%. The economy doesn't create as much inflation-damping slack with a lower growth potential as it does when the economic speed limit is higher, making it harder for the Fed to lower rates when growth slows. It also makes rate increases more likely when growth accelerates since more pressure is put on resources. The Fed last week kept the federal funds rate at 5.25% for a fifth-straight meeting, and is expected to keep rates steady well into 2007. "The overall picture clearly is going to please the Fed, as it hints that the script of trend growth and moderating inflationary pressures is unfolding smoothly and according to their plan," said analysts at UniCredit MIB. "However, these figures show that it is no time yet to lower the guard against inflation." Given its recent volatility, the underlying trend in productivity remains an open question, though a return to the 3%-plus gains seen earlier this decade appears highly unlikely. Still, if the fourth-quarter productivity recovery continues and the underlying trend stays in the 2.5% range as optimists hope and the labor force keep expanding, then the economy should be able to generate noninflationary slack even if gross domestic product growth remains in the 2.5% to 3% range. But if the long-term trend instead looks more like 2006 as a whole and productivity growth settles in at 2% -- which is the rate CBO assumes over the next decade -- then the growth potential will be closer to 2.5% or a little higher, which would prove more problematic for the Fed. The Labor Department report Thursday said nonfarm business output grew 4.2% during the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter. Hours worked rose 1.2%. Hourly compensation increased 4.8%. Real compensation, adjusted for inflation, increased 7.1%. Manufacturing productivity increased 2.2% last quarter. Realtors' Forecast NAR projects existing-home sales will reach 6.44 million in 2007, and 6.64 million in the following year. For all of 2006, existing-home sales hit 6.48 million, the third highest total ever. New-home sales, after reaching 1.06 million in 2006, are projected to decline to 961,000 in 2007 and then rise to 971,000 in 2008. David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, said existing-home sales reached "what appears to be the bottom in the fourth quarter of 2006, [and] we expect existing-home sales to gradually rise all this year and well into 2008." New-home sales "should continue to slide," Mr. Lereah said, "but we look for that sector to turn around later in the year." Residential construction will likely be sluggish until inventories decline. Housing starts are likely to total 1.52 million in 2007, down from 1.80 million units in 2006, and then increase to 1.56 million next year, according to NAR. "When new home demand begins to catch up with supply, builders will slowly increase construction -- probably in the second half of this year," Mr. Lereah said. The national median existing-home price should grow 1.9% to $226,200 in 2007, after rising only 1.1% in 2006, NAR said. The median new-home price is expected to increase 1.8% to $249,800 in 2007, following a similar gain last year. Consumer Credit Expanded in December Consumer credit outstanding expanded about $6 billion in December to $2.401 trillion, according to the latest report from the Fed. That followed a $13.7 billion expansion in November, previously estimated as a $12.3 billion expansion. December's credit growth was near Wall Street estimates that consumer credit had expanded $6.7 billion during the month. The credit data are often volatile from month to month and are frequently revised. They exclude home mortgages and other real estate-secured loans. Revolving credit, which mainly reflects credit card financing, grew $608.9 million in December to $876.2 billion, compared with a $9.9 billion expansion in November. The December growth rate was the slowest since last March, when revolving credit shrank. Households' nonrevolving credit, such as car and boat loans, grew $5.4 billion in December. That followed a $3.7 billion increase in November and a $2.3 billion decline in October. For full-year 2006 consumer credit grew 4.6% compared with a 4.2% expansion in 2005. Within the overall figure, revolving credit accelerated to 6.0% growth last year from 3.2% the previous year, while nonrevolving credit slowed to a 3.8% expansion in 2006 from 4.8% growth the prior year. Overall consumer credit grew in December expanded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.0%, following November's 6.9% growth, the Fed said. Revolving credit grew at an 0.8% annual rate in December after a 13.8% growth rate the previous month. Meanwhile nonrevolving credit grew at a 4.3% annual rate after rising at a 2.9% rate in November.
