<http://www.thejakartapost.com/jakpost/landscape.htm>http://www.thejakartap ost.com/jakpost/landscape.htm Landscape of Potential Unrest Study finds Surabaya 'most vulnerable to unrest' JAKARTA (JP): The East Java capital of Surabaya is the most likely area to explode into unrest, a study reveals. The study, jointly conducted by Trisakti University, Suara 234 and Research Institute for Democracy and Peace researchers, put Surabaya ahead of South Jakarta, Medan in North Sumatra, East Jakarta and North Jakarta. According to the study, a series of conflicts within the society, either violent or nonviolent, contributed to the potential for unrest in the areas. Next in the list of top 10 potential trouble spots were Bandung regency, Bogor regency, both in West Java, West Jakarta, Bekasi regency in West Java and Malang regency in East Java. Head of Trisakti research institute Dadan Umar Daihani said the findings were an early warning for residents of those areas, the government and security authorities of possible violence, even in areas which had never been hit by riots, ahead of the June 7 general election. "Our mapping (of the situation) concludes the atmosphere now is not conducive for the polls. It's up to the government now to fix it up within the remaining weeks," Dadan said. He said the study was aimed at enabling people to go further than conventional analysis, which considered, among other things, the economic gap, unemployment and religious disharmony as the trigger for conflict. Regencies in East Timor had the least potential for unrest, despite persistent challenges mounted by rebel groups since it was integrated into Indonesia in 1976. "The province is volatile in terms of antigovernment movements, but it is canceled out by the fact the territory lacks religious and economic discrepancies which could trigger conflicts," Dadan said. Sambas, one of the country's latest hot spots, was also categorized as a low risk conflict area, in part because of its economic parity and low resistance to the government. Dadan warned that areas with a more or less equal division of religious groups could explode into communal clashes lasting generations. He specifically referred to Ambon, Maluku and its surrounding areas, where religious riots have left more than 400 killed since they first erupted mid-January.(amd)
