On Sun, May 4, 2008 at 7:38 AM, Bradley M. Kuhn <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> The work above is not terribly difficult, although there is a lot of
> grunt work involved. The hard part after that is making that kind of
> system accessible to non-programmers. This is the area where my
> expertise falls down; I can't imagine what a GUI would look like to make
> programming those objects easy to a non-programmer.
>
> But, that's where this becomes really interesting for some good UI
> designer out there. I imagine that a site that featured this sort of
> system, if the interface were strong, would be quite popular and could
> even support itself with advertising.
>
> Some ideas I had is a sort of domain-specific language for defining
> actions, which maybe would make it too much like programming. Another
> idea is some sort of line-based action rules like:
>
> HAND: { (ACTION, PERCENT), (ACTION, PERCENT) ... }
>
> which would give an easy interface to a subset of what the API can
> actually do.
Interesting post, I've actually been thinking about such a tool for a
while. I'm a pretty weak player (roughly break even at NL25) and want
to understand the merits of various types of plays, like *why*
c-betting is good, why it's bad to reraise an EP raise with AJ than
get it all in on an A high flop etc.
I've been approaching it as defining a mini strategy, or very simple
model for a given player in a given situation.
Regarding interface, my first thoughts have been to rigidly define PF
hand range notation (eg, 64+ includes 86o, but not 98 or AA), then to
define a notation for flop hand strength, roughly as follows:
1) Made hand strength: 1st to 3rd pair or straight etc, the quality of
that hand (eg, nut straight, middle straight, or bad straight). So
TPTK might be written "1P1" (first pair, best kicker), bottom two
might be "T3" ("two pair, third best")
2) Draws: what's being drawn to (same notation as above), plus a flag
if only one hole card is being used. AdKh on 5d6d9d might be "DF1*"
("draw to flush, best in category, using just one hole card")
And maybe a note for counter draws and scary boards etc, so the model
could include things like "don't bother drawing to an oesd on a 3
flush board" or "bet TPTK harder on 2-straight, 2-flush board" or
something.
This notation would be combined with actions and percentages, by
situation. You have a sort of game tree, so given your PF situation
above (AK OOP), I picture the interface being a sort of vertical
story, from preflop to river, with filters narrowing it down to what
you're interested in at the moment.
Hero preflop strategy UTG: Raise: 22+, AQ+, KQ 100%
Hero preflop strategy MP: ...
...
Villain preflop strategy OTB after 1 raise no callers: ...
<filter: Hero AK, UTG, 1 caller>
Hero flop strategy:
100 ("bet 100%, no matter what")
Villain flop strategy, after c-bet (rules are applied in order, until
something matches):
Z,S,F 0/100 ("never raise, always call with a 'zet', straight or flush")
1P {2S 2F} 100 ("always raise with top pair on a 2 straight, 2 flush board")
1P 80/20 ("raise 80%, call 20% with top pair any kicker")
2P DT2 10/65 ("bet/raise 10%, Call 65% with second pair, drawing to
2nd best two-pair combo")
2P 0/60 ("never raise, call 60% with second pair")
[you didn't specify what he does with two pair, draws, overpairs,
flopped trips...]
At this point, the program can tell you:
- What % of the time you see the turn
- How often you're ahead when you get there
- How often you have TPTK but are behind
- How often your c-bet folds out a hand that beats you
- What situations are not covered by the strategy (useful, I think...)
By extending the strategies above to the turn, it could tell you:
- What % double-barrelling will win you a pot you were losing.
- What % you're giving up a pot you're winning (depending on his strategy)
Precise EV calculations look tricky, because there will be a lot of
marginal, unspecified cases - what happens when he calls on a paired
board and you have the nut flush draw? What if he shoves? What if he
bets small? etc etc. I guess you write a series of rules for various
situations ("hero bets, villain calls, hero checks: villain's strategy
here"), then the program tells you what coverage you have of all
situations ("based on 95.3% coverage, your EV is +2.8 BB's...').
I actually came to this list to see how much of the hand evaluation
stuff is already written and I can use - last time I looked, I didn't
see much in the way of documentation?
Steve
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