http://thehill.com/policy/defense/224273-gop-poised-to-dash-obamas-iran-hopes


GOP poised to dash Obama’s Iran hopes


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By Kristina Wong <http://thehill.com/author/kristina-wong> - 11/16/14 06:00
AM EST

Republicans are flexing their muscles and threatening to block President
Obama from cutting a nuclear deal with Iran on his own terms.

International negotiators have until Nov. 24 under an interim agreement to
reach a deal with Tehran that would curb its nuclear program in exchange
for sanctions relief, or seek another extension of talks.

While the GOP won’t take control of the Senate until Jan.3, they are
quickly making it clear they are serious about closely vetting any
agreement. As the deadline approaches, Republicans fear the administration
is too eager to reach a deal and could concede too much in talks.

A GOP Congress could doom what the president hopes will be a legacy foreign
policy achievement.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) took to the Senate floor on Thursday to ask
for unanimous consent to schedule a vote on a bill that would give Congress
final approval over any deal, or else reinstate tough sanctions on Iran.

Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy (Conn.) quickly rejected the request, arguing
that scheduling a vote on the deal would be "premature at this point." He
said it would "send a fairly chilling message" that U.S. officials at the
table with Iran did not have full authority to negotiate an agreement.

But when Republicans take control of the Senate, they could move to pass
that bill, or push legislation from Senate Foreign Relations Chairman Bob
Menendez (D-N.J.) and Sen. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) which would reinstate
sanctions if Iran violates any deal.

Their bill also pledges military support for Israel if it decides to strike
Iran's nuclear facilities, which it has threatened to do.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) delayed a vote on the bill
earlier this year under pressure from the White House, which argued that it
could sink any chance of reaching a deal. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), the
next majority leader, though has expressed support for tough sanctions.

The president has already threatened to veto the legislation, but doing so
would be politically risky. The bill already enjoys the support of 60
senators, including 16 Democrats, and there is sweeping support for a
similar bill in the House.

A deal that's not supported by Congress or seen as weak could also hurt the
2016 Democratic presidential nominee, especially if it fails to prevent
Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons capabilities.

Experts believe negotiators will extend their talks beyond the November
deadline for several months, which would allow Republicans to pass Iran
legislation before a deal is reached.

If negotiators do reach a deal before Republicans take power, the GOP can
still try to stand in the way. Republicans could move a bill requiring
congressional approval of any deal, pass legislation defunding
implementation, or pass a non-binding joint resolution expressing
disapproval.

Some experts said GOP pressure and oversight before a deal is reached would
strengthen U.S. negotiators by creating clear red lines they could not
cross in talks.

"In any negotiation, you need a good cop and a bad cop. People in the room
need to have the backstop that they can point to," said Mark Dubowitz,
executive director of the conservative Foundation for Defense of
Democracies.

Trita Parsi, founder and president of the National Iranian American
Council, which supports the talks, disagreed.

"If the U.S. Congress is moving forward with sanctions legislation, it
sends a signal that the U.S. is not serious in reaching a deal, and the
Iranians are not going to entertain this process," he said.

"This is good cop and crazy cop.”

A major point of contention between lawmakers and the White House is
whether Iran will be allowed to continue to enrich uranium. The interim
deal, known as the Joint Plan of Action, relaxed sanctions in exchange for
Iran limiting, but not ending, domestic enrichment of uranium.

Other issues that need to be negotiated include the duration of a final
deal before Iran is treated like other nuclear powers, the nature and pace
of sanctions relief, Iran’s ability to develop advanced centrifuges and
improve its enrichment capability, and the fate of two nuclear facilities,
the Arak heavy water reactor facility and the Fordo enrichment facility.

On Wednesday, Sens. Kirk and Menendez issued a statement seeking to set
their expectations on those issues.

“We believe that a good deal will dismantle, not just stall, Iran’s illicit
nuclear program and prevent Iran from ever becoming a threshold nuclear
weapons state,” they said.

“If a potential deal does not achieve these goals, we will work with our
colleagues in Congress to act decisively, as we have in the past,” they
warned.

Robert Einhorn, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and a former
Obama adviser on Iran negotiations, warned that if sanctions legislation
goes too far, it could risk unraveling international support for pressure
on Iran.

"It's important to keep the pressure on Iran," said.

"But it has to be done in a skillful way to avoid fracturing the sanctions
coalition that we need to sustain pressure on Iran."




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