http://stupidfrogs.org/articles/castro_cuba_obama_and_iran.html



*Castro, Cuba, Obama - and Iran*



By Elliott Abrams
WeeklyStandard.com

Imagine for a moment that you are a Saudi, Emirati, Jordanian, or Israeli.
Your main national security worry these days is Iran—Iran’s rise, its
nuclear program, its troops fighting in Iraq and Syria, its growing
influence from Yemen through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon.

[image: Obama in Cairo]

Obama in Cairo

Your main ally against Iran for the past decades has been the United
States. Naturally you worry about American policy. You remember President
Obama’s outreach to Iran in 2009, and his failure to back the Iranian
people’s protests in June of that year after the stolen election. You
wonder if the United States can be relied on, or will one day announce a
major policy shift.

What shift? A rapprochement with Iran that ends the sanctions, throws an
economic lifeline to the regime, re-establishes diplomatic relations with
it—in exchange for nothing. That is, the Islamic Republic would make no
concessions about its foreign or domestic policies. And the change in U.S.
policy would show that in the long struggle between the United States and
Iran since 1979, the Americans have finally blinked.

And now, you turn on the TV and see the announcement about the change in
American policy in Cuba. Re-establishment of diplomatic relations. Lots of
changes in the embargo that will mean plenty more cash for the Castros. A
change in the whole American official position vis-à-vis Cuba. In exchange,
the Castro brothers have pledged to let 53 political prisoners out, free
one American spy, and free the American hostage Alan Gross. As to real
changes in the regime—changes in its foreign or domestic policies—none.
Zero. Zip. So, you conclude that in the long struggle between the United
States and the Castro regime since 1959, the Americans have finally blinked.

Your conclusion about Iran is inevitable: that the Obama administration
cannot be relied upon and is quite likely to abandon America’s Iran policy
as well. Your only hope is, of course, the Ayatollah Khamenei, who appears
to oppose and to fear a rapprochement with the Americans. Perhaps you are
safe as long as he is alive, and now you start hoping that the old man
outlives the Obama administration.

The American collapse with respect to Cuba will have repercussions in the
Middle East and elsewhere—in Asia, for the nations facing a rising China,
and in Europe, for those near Putin’s newly aggressive Russia.  What are
American guarantees and promises worth if a fifty-year-old policy followed
by Democrats like Johnson, Carter, and Clinton can be discarded overnight?
In more than a few chanceries the question that will be asked as this year
ends is “who is next to find that America is today more interested in
propitiating its enemies than in protecting its allies?”




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