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http://www.militarytimes.com/story/military/pentagon/2015/03/11/pentagon-unsure-how-to-support-syrian-rebels/70164908/


Pentagon unsure how to support Syrian rebels

By Andrew Tilghman, Staff writer 5:37 p.m. EDT March 11, 2015

[image: Syrian rebels]

Rebel fighters drive a tank near the front line north of the Syrian city of
Aleppo in February. The U.S. military has screened at least 1,200 Syrian
rebels who could participate in a new training program and eventually fight
against Islamic State extremists.(Photo: Getty)

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The U.S. military is preparing to provide protection and support for the
American-trained Syrian forces who will fight in that nation's
four-year-old civil war, top officials say.

But that prospect is reviving concerns about Syrian air defense systems and
the risk that U.S. aircraft face when flying bombing missions over the
war-torn country.

Top military officials say there is no doubt that some level of U.S.
support — most likely close-air support and intelligence — will be needed
to support the moderate Syrian rebel force that may emerge from an
American-led training effort later this year.

"The forces that we train in Syria, we will have some obligation to support
them after they're trained," Defense Secretary Ash Carter said at a press
briefing Wednesday. "That is something we are aware of and discussing."

The U.S. military has screened at least 1,200 Syrian rebels who could
participate in a new training program and eventually fight against Islamic
State extremists, also known as ISIS or ISIL, on the Syrian side of the
border. The goal is to select and train about 5,000 fighters over the next
year at facilities in Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.



"The program won't succeed unless they believe themselves to have a
reasonable chance of survival," Army Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the
Joint Chiefs, said on Capitol Hill on Wednesday.

"It was always my advice that we had to come to some conclusion to assure
them that they would be protected. Now, the scope and scale of that
protection is the part of this that's being actively debated," Dempsey told
lawmakers.

Yet supporting those fighters could be far riskier than the current
operations in Iraq because the U.S. has an adversarial relationship with
the embattled regime of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad. And Assad
controls an intimidating arsenal of surface-to-air missiles, including
medium-range SA-17s.

To date, Assad has not used his air-defense weapons against U.S. aircraft,
which began a bombing campaign last year and continue to make daily flights
into Syrian air space.

U.S. military officials say the Syrian air defense system so far has
remained "passive," part of an implicit agreement that U.S. aircraft limit
their targets to Islamic State forces, which the Syrian regime is also
seeking to defeat.

However, American-trained moderate Syrian rebels would be fighting both
Islamic State forces as well as the Syrian regime. Providing U.S. support
for those rebels could put the American military in direct contact with
Syrian forces for the first time.

Top military officials are wrestling with the question of how to respond if
and when the American-backed rebels confront the Syrian regime.

"We are still working through how we would react to that eventuality,"
Carter said Wednesday.

"It is a situation that we have foreseen and it's not a situation where
decisions have been made. It would depend very much on the situation or the
circumstances," Carter said.

Many experts say the Syrians could activate their surface-to-air missile
systems and immediately put U.S. fighters, bombers and manned and unmanned
surveillance aircraft at risk.

That, in turn, would require the U.S. operations over Syria to become far
more complex. More stealth and electronic attack capabilities would be
needed. It could potentially prompt a round of air strikes on the Syrian
military facilities that house the missile systems, which would
significantly escalate U.S. involvement in the conflict.

Some experts say Syrian air-defense systems have deteriorated over the past
few years, with the civil war limiting the Syrian military's ability to
maintain them in good working order. In addition, Islamic State forces have
seized several key facilities.

"My sense is that [the Syrian military's] capability has declined, from
loss of territory, lack of activity, lack of training," said Jeffrey White,
a defense fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy who has
studied the Syrian air-defense system.

"The great unknown what the Russians and others may be doing in order to
maintain at least part of it," White said.

He said U.S. or coalition air forces would be able to deal with Syria's air
defense system "without too much difficulty, but that doesn't mean it would
be no risk. You can't say it would not be a factor. I would imagine that
the military planners would devote quite a bit of effort to make sure we
could deal with this."




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