http://thecipherbrief.com/article/middle-east/affiliates-isis
Containing the Cancer
March 10, 2016 | Bennett Seftel
>From its base in Syria and Iraq, the Islamic State (ISIS or ISIL) has
morphed into a worldwide jihadi network. Casting a vast net is part of
ISIS’s grand strategy, which focuses on using terrorist tactics to
establish an Islamic Caliphate across Muslim lands and attacking Western
targets as part of its apocalyptic vision.
“The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) has become the preeminent
terrorist threat because of its self-described caliphate in Syria and Iraq,
its branches and emerging branches in other countries, and its increasing
ability to direct and inspire attacks against a wide range of targets
around the world,” wrote Director of National Intelligence James Clapper in
his 2016 Worldwide Threat Assessment released in February.
On Monday, this sentiment was echoed by Lisa Monaco, a top counterterrorism
official at the White House, who stated that that terrorist threat today
“is broader, more diffuse—and less predictable—than at any time since 9/11.”
When offering their assessments of the campaign to degrade and ultimately
destroy ISIS, some U.S. officials, including Brett McGurk, the Special
Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL, are quick to
point out that “ISIL has not had a significant battlefield victory {in
Syria and Iraq} since May 2015 and over a dozen major cities have been
liberated from ISIL since the start of the campaign.” Such statements
indicate that the U.S.-led coalition is making headway in its effort to
eradicate ISIS.
Despite territorial losses to its self-declared caliphate, ISIS remains
committed to spreading its ideological message, harsh rule, and terrorist
objectives to new outposts. “ISIL has reacted to these losses in Iraq and
Syria by lashing out overseas – conducting the kinds of terrorist attacks
that Beirut and Paris witnessed in November and Istanbul and Jakarta
witnessed in January,” explained McGurk in his testimony before the House
Foreign Affairs Committee last month. “The Islamic State has indeed been
diverting resources for the larger cause,” writes The Cipher Brief expert
Aki Peritz.
And this strategy appears to be working. While much attention has been
directed at battling ISIS in Syria and Iraq, the terrorist group has also
been able to solidify key strongholds in Libya and Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula.
During the past few months, ISIS has sent several of its leaders to Libya
in an effort to avoid the U.S.-led aerial bombardment, and ISIS’s offshoot
in the Sinai continues to conduct smaller scale attacks.
ISIS’s metastasis does not stop there. The group has worked to cultivate
branches in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh,
Somalia, West Africa, and the Caucasus. Earlier this month, estimates
placed the number of ISIS global affiliates at 43, up from the 34 reported
last December. Since ISIS’s ascension to the spotlight of the global jihadi
scene two years ago, several terrorist organizations, most notably Boko
Haram in Nigeria and certain elements of al-Shabab in Somalia, have
switched their allegiance from al Qaeda’s emir, Ayman al Zawahiri, to ISIS
leader Abu Bakr al Baghdadi.
Furthermore, ISIS continues to grab headlines for attacks outside of Syria
and Iraq. Earlier this week, ISIS militants launched raids along the
Tunisian-Libyan border, killing several members of Tunisia’s security
forces. Last week, Jordanian authorities foiled an ISIS terrorist plot near
the Jordanian-Syrian border, killing seven militants. On Monday,
Metropolitan Police Assistant Commissioner and senior counterterrorism
coordinator in the UK, Mark Rowley, warned that the UK authorities should
be on alert for an “enormous and spectacular” terrorist atrocity planned by
ISIS.
Thus, “as ISIS faces an uncertain future, regular setbacks in Syria/Iraq
motivate them to expand into other areas,” writes The Cipher Brief expert
Dr. Michael W.S. Ryan. Ousting ISIS from its headquarters is critical for
curbing the group’s momentum and exposing its weaknesses, but an effective
counter-ISIS strategy must also take into account ISIS affiliates outside
of Syria and Iraq as they continue to threaten regional and global security
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