the Islamic State (ISIS or ISIL) has morphed into a worldwide jihadi 
network. Casting a vast net
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Number of ISIS fighters in Syria and Iraq declined by thousands – US 
intelligence report
Published time: 5 Feb, 2016 04:01Edited time: 5 Feb, 2016 19:48
Get short URL <http://on.rt.com/73ob>
[image: Fighters of the Islamic State © Stringer]
Fighters of the Islamic State © Stringer / Reuters

The Islamic State has lost thousands of fighters in Iraq and Syria, the 
White House said, praising the US-led coalition’s efforts. The latest 
American intelligence estimates show there are up to 25,000 militants, over 
6,000 less than before.

*“That means they continue to be a substantial threat, but the potential 
numbers have declined,”* White House spokesman Josh Earnest told 
<https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/02/04/press-briefing-press-secretary-josh-earnest-242016>
 reporters, 
though he did not give much detail on the source of the estimates.

According to the *“new assessment,”* Earnest said the ranks of the Islamic 
State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL) have thinned out from the previously 
estimated number of up to 31,500 militants.

*“The old assessment was a range of 20,000 to 31,500 fighters. The updated 
assessment is now a range of 19,000 to 25,000 fighters,”* he said.

Speaking on the factors behind the decline, the White House pointed out *“a 
number of airstrikes”* by the US and its partners, as well as *“success”*
 and *“some important progress”* in stopping the flow of foreign fighters 
into Syria and Iraq.

*“That’s a testament to the efforts of our partners on the ground who are 
taking the fight to ISIL on the ground. As a result of those efforts, ISIL 
has sustained significant casualties. It also is a testament to our 
aggressive military campaign in the air,”*Earnest concluded. *“ISIL is 
having more difficult time than they’ve had before in replenishing their 
ranks.”*

However, the threat of the terrorist group expanding its footprint in Iraq 
and in Syria is still there, the White House representative said, stressing 
that Washington has been *“mindful”* of Libya and Afghanistan, two other 
potential targets of IS.

*“We also know that ISIL has always had designs on looking for other areas 
that are experiencing political instability to try to establish another 
foothold,”* Earnst said.

On Tuesday, the Pentagon said it was exploring ways to increase *“the 
pressure on the enemy,”* which “could be coalition boots on the ground.”

According to US Central Command (CENTCOM), the coalition has conducted 20 
strikes 
<http://www.centcom.mil/en/news/articles/feb.-4-military-airstrikes-continue-against-isil-terrorists-in-syria-and-ir>
 on 
February 3.

The US Air Force began a bombing campaign on IS positions in Iraq on August 
8, 2014. On September 23 of that year, American warplanes started 
airstrikes in Syrian territory, provoking a highly negative reaction from 
Damascus, as Washington had not obtained the authorization of President 
Bashar Assad’s government to conduct operations in Syrian airspace.

The US-led anti-IS coalition (66 member states) has since been criticized 
for lack of significant progress.

On Wednesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also pointed out that 
the coalition’s *“operations have become more effective,”* while stressing 
that the success was not without Russia’s own efforts in Syria.

*“We’re glad that with the success of the Russian campaign in Syria, the 
[US-led] coalition’s operations have become more effective,”* Lavrov said.

The Russian task force in Syria began airstrikes on IS positions in Syria 
on September 30, 2015, at the request of the Syrian government. Lavrov 
advocated for real-time coordination between the Russian and American air 
forces, and the forces fighting terrorist groups on the ground.

*“Being pragmatic, we’re interested in coordination of our efforts with the 
US-led coalition. And not only to avoid incidents, but in something more 
practical and in-demand today: real-time coordination between those 
[forces] operating on the ground and the air force of Russia and the 
coalition,”* Lavrov said.

On Thursday, March 10, 2016 at 1:50:31 PM UTC-6, Travis wrote:
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> http://thecipherbrief.com/article/middle-east/affiliates-isis
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> Containing the Cancer
>
> March 10, 2016 | Bennett Seftel
>
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>
> From its base in Syria and Iraq, the Islamic State (ISIS or ISIL) has 
> morphed into a worldwide jihadi network. Casting a vast net is part of 
> ISIS’s grand strategy, which focuses on using terrorist tactics to 
> establish an Islamic Caliphate across Muslim lands and attacking Western 
> targets as part of its apocalyptic vision.
>
> “The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) has become the preeminent 
> terrorist threat because of its self-described caliphate in Syria and Iraq, 
> its branches and emerging branches in other countries, and its increasing 
> ability to direct and inspire attacks against a wide range of targets 
> around the world,” wrote Director of National Intelligence James Clapper in 
> his 2016 Worldwide Threat Assessment released in February.
>
> On Monday, this sentiment was echoed by Lisa Monaco, a top 
> counterterrorism official at the White House, who stated that that 
> terrorist threat today “is broader, more diffuse—and less predictable—than 
> at any time since 9/11.”
>
> When offering their assessments of the campaign to degrade and ultimately 
> destroy ISIS, some U.S. officials, including Brett McGurk, the Special 
> Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL, are quick to 
> point out that “ISIL has not had a significant battlefield victory {in 
> Syria and Iraq} since May 2015 and over a dozen major cities have been 
> liberated from ISIL since the start of the campaign.” Such statements 
> indicate that the U.S.-led coalition is making headway in its effort to 
> eradicate ISIS.
>
> Despite territorial losses to its self-declared caliphate, ISIS remains 
> committed to spreading its ideological message, harsh rule, and terrorist 
> objectives to new outposts. “ISIL has reacted to these losses in Iraq and 
> Syria by lashing out overseas – conducting the kinds of terrorist attacks 
> that Beirut and Paris witnessed in November and Istanbul and Jakarta 
> witnessed in January,” explained McGurk in his testimony before the House 
> Foreign Affairs Committee last month. “The Islamic State has indeed been 
> diverting resources for the larger cause,” writes The Cipher Brief expert 
> Aki Peritz.
>
> And this strategy appears to be working. While much attention has been 
> directed at battling ISIS in Syria and Iraq, the terrorist group has also 
> been able to solidify key strongholds in Libya and Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula. 
> During the past few months, ISIS has sent several of its leaders to Libya 
> in an effort to avoid the U.S.-led aerial bombardment, and ISIS’s offshoot 
> in the Sinai continues to conduct smaller scale attacks.
>
> ISIS’s metastasis does not stop there. The group has worked to cultivate 
> branches in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, 
> Somalia, West Africa, and the Caucasus. Earlier this month, estimates 
> placed the number of ISIS global affiliates at 43, up from the 34 reported 
> last December. Since ISIS’s ascension to the spotlight of the global jihadi 
> scene two years ago, several terrorist organizations, most notably Boko 
> Haram in Nigeria and certain elements of al-Shabab in Somalia, have 
> switched their allegiance from al Qaeda’s emir, Ayman al Zawahiri, to ISIS 
> leader Abu Bakr al Baghdadi.
>
> Furthermore, ISIS continues to grab headlines for attacks outside of Syria 
> and Iraq. Earlier this week, ISIS militants launched raids along the 
> Tunisian-Libyan border, killing several members of Tunisia’s security 
> forces. Last week, Jordanian authorities foiled an ISIS terrorist plot near 
> the Jordanian-Syrian border, killing seven militants. On Monday, 
> Metropolitan Police Assistant Commissioner and senior counterterrorism 
> coordinator in the UK, Mark Rowley, warned that the UK authorities should 
> be on alert for an “enormous and spectacular” terrorist atrocity planned by 
> ISIS.
>
> Thus, “as ISIS faces an uncertain future, regular setbacks in Syria/Iraq 
> motivate them to expand into other areas,” writes The Cipher Brief expert 
> Dr. Michael W.S. Ryan. Ousting ISIS from its headquarters is critical for 
> curbing the group’s momentum and exposing its weaknesses, but an effective 
> counter-ISIS strategy must also take into account ISIS affiliates outside 
> of Syria and Iraq as they continue to threaten regional and global security
>
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