Longer Drough??? I have rain water coming in my basment. TODAY.
On Dec 25, 8:52�am, "mike [never forget] 532" <[email protected]> wrote: > Faster Climate Change Feared > New Report Points to Accelerated Melting, Longer > Droughthttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/24/AR200... > Ice sheets in the Antarctic and Greenland, above, are losing 48 cubic > miles per year, pushing up sea level worldwide. The United States > faces the possibility of much more rapid climate change by the end of > the century than previous studies have suggested, according to a new > report led by the U.S. Geological Survey. > > The survey -- which was commissioned by the U.S. Climate Change > Science Program and issued this month -- expands on the 2007 findings > of the United Nations Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change. Looking > at factors such as rapid sea ice loss in the Arctic and prolonged > drought in the Southwest, the new assessment suggests that earlier > projections may have underestimated the climatic shifts that could > take place by 2100. > > However, the assessment also suggests that some other feared effects > of global warming are not likely to occur by the end of the century, > such as an abrupt release of methane from the seabed and permafrost or > a shutdown of the Atlantic Ocean circulation system that brings warm > water north and colder water south. But the report projects an amount > of potential sea level rise during that period that may be greater > than what other researchers have anticipated, as well as a shift to a > more arid climate pattern in the Southwest by mid-century. > > Thirty-two scientists from federal and non-federal institutions > contributed to the report, which took nearly two years to complete. > The Climate Change Science Program, which was established in 1990, > coordinates the climate research of 13 different federal agencies. > > Tom Armstrong, senior adviser for global change programs at USGS, said > the report "shows how quickly the information is advancing" on > potential climate shifts. The prospect of abrupt climate change, he > said, "is one of those things that keeps people up at night, because > it's a low-probability but high-risk scenario. It's unlikely to happen > in our lifetimes, but if it were to occur, it would be life- > changing." > > In one of the report's most worrisome findings, the agency estimates > that in light of recent ice sheet melting, global sea level rise could > be as much as four feet by 2100. The IPCC had projected a sea level > rise of no more than 1.5 feet by that time, but satellite data over > the past two years show the world's major ice sheets are melting much > more rapidly than previously thought. The Antarctic and Greenland ice > sheets are now losing an average of 48 cubic miles of ice a year, > equivalent to twice the amount of ice that exists in the Alps. > > Konrad Steffen, who directs the Cooperative Institute for Research in > Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado at Boulder and > was lead author on the report's chapter on ice sheets, said the models > the IPCC used did not factor in some of the dynamics that scientists > now understand about ice sheet melting. Among other things, Steffen > and his collaborators have identified a process of "lubrication," in > which warmer ocean water gets in underneath coastal ice sheets and > accelerates melting. > > "This has to be put into models," said Steffen, who organized a > conference last summer in St. Petersburg, Russia, as part of an effort > to develop more sophisticated ice sheet models. "What we predicted is > sea level rise will be higher, but I have to be honest, we cannot > model it for 2100 yet." > > Still, Armstrong said the report "does take a step forward from where > the IPCC was," especially in terms of ice sheet melting. > > Scientists also looked at the prospect of prolonged drought over the > next 100 years. They said it is impossible to determine yet whether > human activity is responsible for the drought the Southwestern United > States has experienced over the past decade, but every indication > suggests the region will become consistently drier in the next several > decades. Richard Seager, a senior research scientist at Columbia > University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, said that nearly all of > the 24 computer models the group surveyed project the same climatic > conditions for the North American Southwest, which includes Mexico. > > "If the models are correct, it will transition in the coming years and > decades to a more arid climate, and that transition is already > underway," Seager said, adding that such conditions would probably > include prolonged droughts lasting more than a decade. > > The current models cover broad swaths of landscape, and Seager said > scientists need to work on developing versions that can make > projections on a much smaller scale. "That's what the water managers > out there really need," he said. Current models "don't give them the > hard numbers they need." > > CONTINUED � � 1 � �2 � �Next > --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ Thanks for being part of "PoliticalForum" at Google Groups. 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