don't you just love a good science fiction story? On Dec 25, 9:13 am, "[email protected]" <[email protected]> wrote: > Longer Drough??? > > I have rain water coming in my basment. TODAY. > > On Dec 25, 8:52 am, "mike [never forget] 532" > > <[email protected]> wrote: > > Faster Climate Change Feared > > New Report Points to Accelerated Melting, Longer > > Droughthttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/24/AR200... > > Ice sheets in the Antarctic and Greenland, above, are losing 48 cubic > > miles per year, pushing up sea level worldwide. The United States > > faces the possibility of much more rapid climate change by the end of > > the century than previous studies have suggested, according to a new > > report led by the U.S. Geological Survey. > > > The survey -- which was commissioned by the U.S. Climate Change > > Science Program and issued this month -- expands on the 2007 findings > > of the United Nations Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change. Looking > > at factors such as rapid sea ice loss in the Arctic and prolonged > > drought in the Southwest, the new assessment suggests that earlier > > projections may have underestimated the climatic shifts that could > > take place by 2100. > > > However, the assessment also suggests that some other feared effects > > of global warming are not likely to occur by the end of the century, > > such as an abrupt release of methane from the seabed and permafrost or > > a shutdown of the Atlantic Ocean circulation system that brings warm > > water north and colder water south. But the report projects an amount > > of potential sea level rise during that period that may be greater > > than what other researchers have anticipated, as well as a shift to a > > more arid climate pattern in the Southwest by mid-century. > > > Thirty-two scientists from federal and non-federal institutions > > contributed to the report, which took nearly two years to complete. > > The Climate Change Science Program, which was established in 1990, > > coordinates the climate research of 13 different federal agencies. > > > Tom Armstrong, senior adviser for global change programs at USGS, said > > the report "shows how quickly the information is advancing" on > > potential climate shifts. The prospect of abrupt climate change, he > > said, "is one of those things that keeps people up at night, because > > it's a low-probability but high-risk scenario. It's unlikely to happen > > in our lifetimes, but if it were to occur, it would be life- > > changing." > > > In one of the report's most worrisome findings, the agency estimates > > that in light of recent ice sheet melting, global sea level rise could > > be as much as four feet by 2100. The IPCC had projected a sea level > > rise of no more than 1.5 feet by that time, but satellite data over > > the past two years show the world's major ice sheets are melting much > > more rapidly than previously thought. The Antarctic and Greenland ice > > sheets are now losing an average of 48 cubic miles of ice a year, > > equivalent to twice the amount of ice that exists in the Alps. > > > Konrad Steffen, who directs the Cooperative Institute for Research in > > Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado at Boulder and > > was lead author on the report's chapter on ice sheets, said the models > > the IPCC used did not factor in some of the dynamics that scientists > > now understand about ice sheet melting. Among other things, Steffen > > and his collaborators have identified a process of "lubrication," in > > which warmer ocean water gets in underneath coastal ice sheets and > > accelerates melting. > > > "This has to be put into models," said Steffen, who organized a > > conference last summer in St. Petersburg, Russia, as part of an effort > > to develop more sophisticated ice sheet models. "What we predicted is > > sea level rise will be higher, but I have to be honest, we cannot > > model it for 2100 yet." > > > Still, Armstrong said the report "does take a step forward from where > > the IPCC was," especially in terms of ice sheet melting. > > > Scientists also looked at the prospect of prolonged drought over the > > next 100 years. They said it is impossible to determine yet whether > > human activity is responsible for the drought the Southwestern United > > States has experienced over the past decade, but every indication > > suggests the region will become consistently drier in the next several > > decades. Richard Seager, a senior research scientist at Columbia > > University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, said that nearly all of > > the 24 computer models the group surveyed project the same climatic > > conditions for the North American Southwest, which includes Mexico. > > > "If the models are correct, it will transition in the coming years and > > decades to a more arid climate, and that transition is already > > underway," Seager said, adding that such conditions would probably > > include prolonged droughts lasting more than a decade. > > > The current models cover broad swaths of landscape, and Seager said > > scientists need to work on developing versions that can make > > projections on a much smaller scale. "That's what the water managers > > out there really need," he said. Current models "don't give them the > > hard numbers they need." > > > CONTINUED 1 2 Next > --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ Thanks for being part of "PoliticalForum" at Google Groups. For options & help see http://groups.google.com/group/PoliticalForum
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