RealClearPolitics HorseRaceBlog<http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/index.xml>By Jay Cost
« Amateur Hour at the White House<http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2009/08/amateur_hour_at_the_white_hous_1.html> | HorseRaceBlog Home Page <http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/> August 25, 2009Obama's Worst Poll Number Gallup's breakdown of Obama's job approval by age was illuminating. [image: x0z-ph19ruicafak5uwtqa.gif] First off, note Obama's drop-off among young people. Young people were supposed to be a critical component of the new Democratic majority. Granted their approval is still slightly higher than the other groups, but it has far and away been the most volatile, dropping more than any other. This should not come as a huge surprise. Baby Boomers were partial to McGovern in 1972, but swung around to Reagan in the 80s. Young people's political dispositions are still being formed. Yet, Obama's worst poll number here is actually his share among seniors. I'm guessing it relates to the health care debate. The White House should be * very* concerned, and for one simple reason: seniors vote. Here are some empirics on that claim. I looked at states that featured hotly contested midterm Senate elections in 2006. I counted ten: Maryland, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, and Virginia. For each of these, I pulled out the share of the electorate that was 65 and over for President in 2008, Senate in 2006, and President in 2004. [image: Seniors.jpg] First off, there was not a noticeable drop-off among senior voters from 2004 to 2008. Only Ohio shows a significant change, and it has an increase. About half have a slight increase and half have a slight decrease. That's consistent with national polls, which have seniors contributing 16% of the total electorate in 2004 *and* 2008. Second, notice 2006. In seven of the ten states, seniors accounted for a larger share of the electorate during the midterm. In several of them, the differences were substantial. At least in the hotly contested Senate elections, the 2006 electorate was noticeably older. This corresponds with national data as well. The national House exit poll in 2006 found 19% of the electorate was 65 or older, compared to 16% in the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections. One reason for this might be that there is a lot of stimulation to vote in a presidential election - especially the last two matchups, which were hotly contested - but that stimulation drops off for the midterms. Thus, you're left with an electorate voting more out of habit, rather than being drawn to participate by the excitement of the spectacle. That could give seniors an advantage. If Obama's numbers with seniors stay in the cellar, this could mean midterm problems next year for the Democrats. The silver lining here for the White House is that most of the drop-off occurred recently, which suggests that Obama might be able to win at least some of these people back. If he can improve his overall standing on the health care issue, he'll probably pick up with seniors. On Wed, Aug 26, 2009 at 8:57 AM, "Lone Wolf" <[email protected]> wrote: > > Leftaards. Kennedy was a right wing demogouge just like Obamas > > On Aug 26, 10:35 pm, Bruce Majors <[email protected]> wrote: > > Like I said in another group, let the lionizing, wailing, and gnashing of > > teeth by leftards around the world begin. Ugh. > > > > Cat > > > > "Were we directed from Washington when to sow, & when to reap, we should > > soon want bread." > > > > Thomas Jefferson > > > > ------------------------------ > > *From:* Rich Martin <[email protected]> > > *To:* 3.2 texaskerry <[email protected]>; 3.3 > > tomtancredoforpresident <[email protected]>; 4 > > Impeach_Obama_Now <[email protected]>; 4 > > ronpaulgrassrootsaction <[email protected]> > > *Cc:* 6.1 ronpaulcampaign08 <[email protected]>; 6.2 > > OBama_SUCKS <[email protected]>; 6.3 ponderaa1 Shonda < > > [email protected]> > > *Sent:* Wednesday, August 26, 2009 3:15:24 AM > > *Subject:* [OBama_SUCKS] Ted Kennedy > > > > Ted Kennedy > > > > Plz pass on to friend or list > > > > Don't depend on the MSM to do their job > > > > From the Home of Rich & Peggy Martin* * > > > > “*Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We > didn't > > pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, > > protected, and handed on for them to do the same*." Ronald Reagan > > > > *NOTHING BUT THE ISSUES* > > > > ‘Twasn’t but an hour ago, and the MSM is re-writing Kennedy biography. > The > > big black hole, Chappaquiddick ( Island ), cut short his bid to become > > president after Readers Digest, of all publications, brought it back to > > life. > > > > The way FOX is reporting it, after he crashed and Jo Kopechne drowned, he > > “didn’t report it for several hours.” That’s B.S. *He never reported it*. > > The last ferry had already left for the main land and he supposedly swam > > back fighty ocean currents (acolades for being a remarkable swimmer) and > got > > himself a hotel room. Next morning, he appeared in his bath robe, totally > > surprised at the news of Kopechne’s demise. > > > > The investigation by the Sheriff of Edgar County collected evidence for a > > litany of crimes from DUI, manslaughter, leaving the scene, etc, later > > disappeared into thin air, never to be seen again. > > > > * * > > > > *For more information, Google: “Ted Kennedy Mary Jo Kopechne” * and > > > > *“Ted Kennedy Sheriff Edgartown” *and* “Readers Digest Edgartown”* > > > > * * > > ------------------------------ > > > > (If you don't know where your tea Party is, google tea Party, [name of > > town] > > > > Tea Party Commercial. > > > > http://www.youtube. com/watch? > > v=bkFFwyyjZC8<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bkFFwyyjZC8> > > > > COMING SOON > > > > *Aug 28 – Calif to Washington DC with 35 pick-up points.* > > > > *Join the Car-avan. Become a real patriot.* > > > > www.teapartyexpress.org <http://www.teapartyexpress.org/> > > > > (with before and after) > > > > *Labor Day Tea Party ???* First Monday in Sept > > *http://www.teapartyday.com/* <http://www.teapartyday.com/> > > > > *March on Washington Washington DC* > > *19,396 members and growing*www.the912project. us < > http://www.the912project.us/> > > > > Nov 4, 2009 - National Strike > > > > *http://accdf. com/blog/ 2009/07/21/ national- strike-against- > the-dictator/ > > * > > > > ------------------------------ > > > > ** **Shout Out ** > > ** > > *Looking for others who want or plan to go to Washington DC on Sept 12, > 2009 > > * > > > > You are welcome to join the ElectionDayMarch- subscr...@yahoogroups. > > com< > http://us.mc553.mail.yahoo.com/mc/[email protected] > > > > > > * Rich Martin * > > ** > > *.* > > > > __._,_.___ > > Messages in this topic > > <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/OBama_SUCKS/message/1526;_ylc=X3oDMTM1c.. > .>( > > 2) Reply (via web post) > > <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/OBama_SUCKS/post;_ylc=X3oDMTJxN2lnZzlnB.. > .>| > > Start > > a new topic > > <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/OBama_SUCKS/post;_ylc=X3oDMTJmcjZ2MHBqB.. > .> > > Messages< > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/OBama_SUCKS/messages;_ylc=X3oDMTJmZHZiY...>| > > Files< > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/OBama_SUCKS/files;_ylc=X3oDMTJnZmkycWRk...>| > > Photos< > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/OBama_SUCKS/photos;_ylc=X3oDMTJmYmRsaWR...>| > > Links< > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/OBama_SUCKS/links;_ylc=X3oDMTJnNGwxdGhn...>| > > Database< > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/OBama_SUCKS/database;_ylc=X3oDMTJkbGR2c...>| > > Polls< > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/OBama_SUCKS/polls;_ylc=X3oDMTJnam8wdWE3...>| > > Members< > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/OBama_SUCKS/members;_ylc=X3oDMTJmczliY2...>| > > Calendar< > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/OBama_SUCKS/calendar;_ylc=X3oDMTJlOGlzc...> > > [image: Yahoo! > > Groups]< > http://groups.yahoo.com/;_ylc=X3oDMTJldW43anBuBF9TAzk3NDc2NTkwBGdycEl...> > > Change settings via the > > Web< > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/OBama_SUCKS/join;_ylc=X3oDMTJnOXZhcmNtB.. > .>(Yahoo! > > ID required) > > Change settings via email: Switch delivery to Daily > > Digest<[email protected]?subject=email+delivery:+Digest > >| > > Switch > > format to Traditional< > [email protected]?subject=change+delivery+format:+Traditional > > > > Visit Your Group > > <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/OBama_SUCKS;_ylc=X3oDMTJlbW12a25wBF9TAz.. > .>| > > Yahoo! > > Groups Terms of Use <http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/> | Unsubscribe > > <[email protected]?subject=> > > Recent Activity > > > > - 1 > > New Members< > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/OBama_SUCKS/members;_ylc=X3oDMTJnZWxwOT...> > > > > Visit Your Group > > <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/OBama_SUCKS;_ylc=X3oDMTJmamNkcms2BF9TAz.. > .> > > Give Back > > > > Yahoo! for Good< > http://us.lrd.yahoo.com/_ylc=X3oDMTJuZmpsbXNwBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BF9wAzEE...> > > > > Get inspired > > > > by a good cause. > > Y! 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