The Pioneer Saturday, October 24, 2009
US treads path to disaster Hiranmay Karlekar Judging by media reports of President Barack Obama’s Afghan policy, the United States may well end up on a course that spells disaster for Afghanistan, South Asia as well as itself. For, the policy is likely to be, albeit unintentionally, tailor-made to further Pakistan’s goals at the cost of the security of the US, India and even Russia and China. Some of the developments have been startling. A report by Erich Schmitt and Jane Perlez in The New York Times of July 21 stated that Pakistani officials had told the Obama Administration that the US Marines’ offensive in Afghanistan’s Helmand province, launched at the beginning of the month, would “force militants across the border into Pakistan with the potential to further inflame the troubled province of Balochistan”. Pakistan, it added, did not have enough troops to deploy against the Taliban in Balochistan without denuding its border with India of troops, which it would not do. Dialogue with the Taliban, not fighting it, was in Pakistan’s national interest. The report further stated that in an exclusive two-hour briefing to The New York Times on July 17, analysts and officials of the Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate argued that a surge of US troops in Afghanistan would reinforce perceptions of foreign occupation, result in more civilian casualties, further alienate the local population and lead to greater resistance to foreign troops. A report by Anwar Iqbal in Dawn on October 19 stated that Senator John Kerry, Chairman of the US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, had warned on October 18 that sending more troops to Afghanistan would be irresponsible and would have a destabilising effect on Pakistan. It further stated, “White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel also indicated that US policy-makers were deeply concerned about the impact on Pakistan of a US troop-build-up in neighbouring Afghanistan.” It has long been clear that the present strength of US troops is grossly inadequate for a large country like Afghanistan. A report by Dexter Filkins in The New York Times of January 21 begins thus: “The Taliban are everywhere the soldiers are not, the saying goes in the southern part of the country. And that is a lot of places.” He quoted a US Brigadier-General as saying, “We don’t have enough forces to secure the population.” The result? Filkins writes, “While the American-led coalition holds the cities and highways, it appears to have ceded much of the countryside to the Taliban, because it lacks sufficient forces to confront them.” He adds, “American commanders say the open borders allow the opium to move unimpeded into Pakistan and other places, and for weapons and other supplies to flow in. Five of the six busiest Taliban infiltration routes are in the south, American officers said. Filkins’s report further states, “Across much of the countryside, the Taliban appear to hold the upper hand, not necessarily because they are popular, but because they are unopposed.” What happens if the Afghan Taliban, who are not the target of the Pakistani Army’s current offensive in South Waziristan, disgorge into Afghanistan from their strongholds in South and North Waziristan respectively? The failure of the numerically grossly inadequate American and Nato troops to stop them will mean a humiliating defeat for the US and, perhaps, a final takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban and Al Qaeda. There is a genuine danger of this happening. One does not know whether Islamabad’s current offensive in South Waziristan will succeed, or fail miserably like the earlier ones. With media totally kept out of the operational areas, one has only the Pakistani military’s claims to go by, which are often far removed from reality. One needs to be particularly wary. Powerful sections in the Pakistani armed forces and the ISI have close links with the Taliban and Al Qaeda, and even others regard both as instruments for a future takeover of Afghanistan after the US pulls out. They will want to proclaim victory leaving sizeable sections of both fanatical organisations intact for a future offensive. The belief that that the Americans are already looking for a way to quit Afghanistan without losing face grows as the Obama Administration agonisingly weighs various options, including making peace with the “good Taliban”. Who are these elements? Who will identify them? Who will guarantee that they will remain good? The CIA did not expect the Taliban to become Frankenstein’s monster when it colluded with the ISI to create them in 1994. Meanwhile, the vacillation undermines Pakistan’s offensive against the Taliban and Al Qaeda. While their supporters hinder it because they want to preserve them for the future, their opponents are increasingly stymied by the fear of retribution when the Americans leave. The first consequence of an inglorious American withdrawal from Afghanistan will be their taking over Pakistan. The next will be Afghanistan which will relapse into medieval savagery and its women into slavery. The argument that the US cannot look after everybody reminds one of the 1930s when the same attitude was in evidence in respect of the Jews as Adolf Hitler prepared for his ‘Final Solution’. In the event, the holocaust claimed six million Jews and the world went through World War II which did not leave the US untouched. In this case too the US and the world will suffer terribly. Exit from Afghanistan in the midst of defeat will not be the same as exit from Vietnam, which did not lead to attacks on the US. Vietnam was too exhausted by war, the Soviet Union had become a stable, status-quoist power, and China was initially in the grip of the Cultural Revolution and then on the path of reform. By contrast, the Taliban and Al Qaeda will be flush with success and determined to implement their agenda of imposing on the world their version of reductionist Islam which is a gross distortion of the great religion. Even if they do not succeed, their effort can devastate the world, particularly since control over Pakistan will mean access to its nuclear armory. India will be the first country to bear the brunt of their fanatical offensive and must prepare for the worst. There is not a day to lose. The turn of the other countries will come later. But none will escape. --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ Thanks for being part of "PoliticalForum" at Google Groups. For options & help see http://groups.google.com/group/PoliticalForum * Visit our other community at http://www.PoliticalForum.com/ * It's active and moderated. Register and vote in our polls. * Read the latest breaking news, and more. -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
