-------- Original Message --------
Subject: DAILY KOS GOD WRITING FOR CHRISITAN SCIENCE MONITOR
Date: Tue, 9 Nov 2010 19:56:13 -0500 (EST)
From: [email protected]
To: [email protected]
rofl his followers at DailyKos )must be gulping hard and hoping no one
notices this! :-P
The Christian Science Monitor - CSMonitor.com
Boehner will fail, and Democrats will pounce in 2012
Republicans didn't sweep these elections for grand ideological reasons,
but because not enough of the Democratic base showed up to vote. Exit
polls also show that angry voters who flocked to Republicans will end up
disappointed in their actual policies. And in 2012, Democrats will be ready.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
By Markos Moulitsas Zúniga
<http://www.csmonitor.com/layout/set/print/About/Contact-Us-Feedback>
posted November 8, 2010 at 9:05 am EST
Berkeley, Calif. —
The 2010 elections
<http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Election-2010/2010/1103/After-GOP-landslide-of-Election-2010-what-next-for-Obama%20>
have come and gone, and Democrats found out what happens when they
neglect their base
<http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Robert-Reich-s-Blog/2010/1102/Obama-learn-the-lesson-of-1936-not-1996>
and fail to deliver jobs for the American people.
First things first, the exit polls
<http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#USH00p1> tell us what
this election was /not/. It was not an embrace of the Republican Party.
As counterintuitive as it sounds, the voter opinion of the Republican
Party (42 percent favorable) was /less/ favorable than that of the
Democratic Party (43 percent favorable). Yet 23 percent of those who
viewed the GOP unfavorably still voted for them anyway.
*IN PICTURES: John Boehner*
<http://www.csmonitor.com/layout/set/print/CSM-Photo-Galleries/In-Pictures/John-Boehner>
Full of contradictions
While 35 percent of voters believed that Wall Street was to blame for
the terrible economy, that cohort still voted for Republicans by a 56 to
42 margin. It’s a GOP con of masterful proportions – embrace Wall Street
and its money, yet still win the votes of the financial industry’s
biggest critics.
Of the 47 percent of voters who want the health care law as is or even
/expanded/, 44 percent of them voted Republican. The GOP, of course, has
made repeal of the law
<http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Election-2010/2010/1103/Health-care-reform-After-big-GOP-gains-will-it-be-repealed>
a central tenet of its agenda.
And of the 37 percent of voters who felt the next Congress’s highest
priority should be more government spending to create jobs, 30 percent
voted for Republicans. Boy, will that bunch be disappointed!
Voters had to punish someone
Bottom line, Democrats didn't lose because Republicans are suddenly
popular, or people embrace their agenda. Democrats lost because people
are angry and desperate and flailing and had to punish someone for the
nation's economic woes
<http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/The-Vote/2010/1025/Why-independent-voters-are-abandoning-the-Democrats>.
Of course, it didn’t help that core Democratic voters didn’t turn out in
the necessary numbers.
The 2008 electorate
<http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#USP00p1> was 74 percent
white, 13 percent black, and 9 percent Latino. This week, it was 78, 10,
and 8 percent, respectively. That’s a four-point swing in favor of white
voters. That doesn’t sound like much, but it’s an extra net 3.6 million
white votes. And given whites voted Republican by a 60 to 37 margin,
that was 2.2 million votes banked by Republicans in a contest that
featured myriad tight races. Flip just 150,000 votes in Pennsylvania and
Illinois, and the Democrats
<http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/The-Vote/2010/1103/Democrats-lose-Obama-s-old-Senate-seat-to-Mark-Kirk>
hold both those Senate seats.
In addition, the white voters most likely to vote Democratic – the
millennials – suffered from depressed turnout
<http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2010/1028/How-can-Democrats-stop-the-Republican-tide-this-election-Young-voters>.
In 2008, 18-to-29-year-olds made up 18 percent of the electorate, while
those 65-plus made up 16 percent. More youngsters voted than seniors.
This year, the young cohort was down to 11 percent, while seniors were a
whopping 23 percent of the electorate. That's a 24-point flip,
significant because the youngsters voted Democratic 57 to 40, while the
seniors opted GOP by a 59 to 38 margin.
Weak turnout hurt Democrats – a lot
Without the core Democratic base
<http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Election-2010/From-the-Wires/2010/1018/Obama-targets-key-supporters-down-the-stretch-in-midterm-election-campaign>
at the polls, conservatives dominated the electorate, making up 41
percent of voters. In 2008, they were 34 percent of the total. Given
that even moderates opted strongly for Democrats by a 55 to 42 margin
this election, their relative scarcity compared to fired up
conservatives wasn’t enough to offset those massive Republican gains.
The exit polls are clear, Democrats didn’t lose because of a sudden
rightward switch in the country, but because elections are won by
thosewhose voters show up to the polls
<http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Election-2010/2010/1021/In-California-midterm-election-s-tight-races-voter-turnout-is-key>.
And last Tuesday, it was Republicans.
Don't get too comfortable, Boehner
Now, this new GOP-led House
<http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Election-2010/House/2010/1103/On-historic-night-Republicans-sweep-House-Democrats-from-power>
will make sure that nothing of note passes, and will try to gum up the
works
<http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Tax-VOX/2010/1104/Election-2010-What-does-the-Democratic-debacle-mean-for-fiscal-policy>
further with investigations into President Obama’s birth certificate and
other such insanities. There’s nothing Democrats can do about that, but
with power comes responsibility, and presumptive Speaker John Boehner
<http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Election-2010/House/2010/1103/Speaker-to-be-John-Boehner-More-confrontation-or-a-hint-of-compromise>
will be under pressure to walk the line between the ideological purity
his tea party base
<http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Election-2010/2010/1103/Tea-Party-Top-10-biggest-winners-and-losers/Marco-Rubio-Florida>
demands, and the pragmatism of governing. When he fails (and he will),
Democrats need to be ready to pounce.
The last three cycles have proven that the House can swing wildly from
extreme to extreme. We truly have an angry, downright schizophrenic
electorate, ready to take out its frustrations
<http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Election-2010/Vox-News/2010/1104/Obama-calls-midterm-elections-a-shellacking-for-Democrats>
on whomever is in power. The Democrats took the brunt of that anger in
2010. Unless they help turn things around in America, Republicans
shouldn’t get too comfortable in their new congressional digs before
2012. Especially in a year when the Democratic base /will/ turn out.
/Markos Moulitsas Zúniga
<http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2008/1028/p09s01-coop.html>
is publisher of Daily Kos <http://dailykos.com/> and author of "American
Taliban: How War, Sex, Sin, and Power Bind Jihadists to the Radical
Right."/
*IN PICTURES: John Boehner*
<http://www.csmonitor.com/layout/set/print/CSM-Photo-Galleries/In-Pictures/John-Boehner>
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