http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200506/27/eng20050627_192610.html
UPDATED: 14:54, June 27, 2005
The Pentagon plays up "China threat theory"
The pentagon's evaluation on China's military spending is "seriously inflated",
said a Rand research report on the annual report on the military power of China
by US Department of Defence, which will be delivered to the Congress soon. The
report said that the play-up of "China military threat" theory on purpose
should be rectified.
China's military expenditure suffers repeated "inflation"
On May 19, the Rand Corporation referred a report to the US Air Force entitled
"The Modernization of Chinese National Defence: Opportunities and Challenges",
which gave an assessment of the future development of Chinese military power.
In this report, many senior Rand experts on China affairs believe that Chinese
spending on national defence accounts for about 2.3 to 2.8 percent of its GDP.
According to latest data Rand has gained, in 2003, the total military expenses
of China were between 31-38 billion US dollars.
The figure was already 70 per cent higher than that published by the Chinese
government. Yet the Pentagon claimed in its 2003 report that the year's
military outlay was as high as 65 billion US dollars, still 71 per cent higher
than the highest Rand estimation.
The US Congress passed its National Defence Authorization Act in 2000,
requiring the Department of Defence to hand in "report on Chinese military
power" to the Congress annually with analysis on China's present and future
military strategy. In such reports, the Pentagon has more than once viciously
exaggerated Chinese military outlay, spreading "China threat theory." In 2004,
Pentagon offered a 54-page report with tens of thousands of words, trying its
utmost for exaggeration and instigation. The report asserted luridly that
China's military expenditure reached between 50-70 billion US dollars.
Later, a Pentagon spokesman preached that the Chinese army is devoting itself
to the modernization drive and developing a capacity to win a partial war under
high-tech conditions. Accordingly, the Department of Defence will continue to
closely monitor Chinese army's modernization process, "especially that
involving Taiwan".
What is the Pentagon up to?
Therewith, on the expenses, the US government does not sit down to make an
earnest research on the first-hand data, but instead, indulges in guessing,
said James Mulvenon, an expert on international issues and one of the authors
of the Rand report. So, the Rand has to correct "many estimations from the US
government".
Many international observers pointed out that strong political motives and huge
economic interests have been driving the Pentagon to recklessly fabricate
"China threat" theory.
First, exaggeration of China's military power can not only exacerbate Congress
suspicion and hostility against China, but also dredge for benefits for all US
military departments in order to obtain a bigger defence budget. The
exaggeration can also enable the US to find a pretext for its opposition to the
European Union's lifting of arms embargo on China and for making public
opinions in order to enlarge its arms sales to Taiwan.
A long way for developing Chinese military power
The report believes that whether China's economy can maintain a rapid and
sustainable growth will be a decisive factor influencing the changes of its
defence expenses. As the world second largest economy in many fields, China has
enough economic strength to build a modernized powerful army. Experts from the
Rand forecast that, despite the prediction that by 2025, the growth rate will
be down to 3 per cent from the present 9 per cent, China will by then still
retain an economic scale more than three times the present size.
Meanwhile, Rand experts also pointed out that in the next 20 years, the speed
and way of the military power growth will be affected and conditioned by many
factors, including the reduced scale of cheap labor force, the sharp reduction
of bank savings caused by the use of savings due to the aging population,
dwindled exports and the decline of industrial output caused by market
saturation, financial frailty with high risks and problems existed in
agriculture and rural areas.
To sum up, the Rand report believes that although there is a good momentum for
the development of the military power, it will not be a smooth path. It is too
early to preach "China military threat" theory, as there is a long way to go
with heavy responsibilities ahead for Chinese national defence and the army
building.
This article is carried on the Global Times, June 24, and is translated by
People's Daily Online
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