http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,15740332%255E2703,00.html
Iran back to Islamic future
Marie Colvin, Tehran
June 27, 2005
THE ultra-conservative mayor of Tehran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has surprised much
of Iran and most of the world by winning his country's presidency on a platform
of promises reminiscent of the early days of the 1979 Islamic revolution.
Mr Ahmadinejad, 49, who has threatened to "cut off the hands of the mafia" and
described Iran's access to nuclear power as its "inalienable right", won a
landslide victory over Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the 70-year-old former
president who had been tipped to win.
The populist mayor, who cast himself as the Robin Hood of Iran's devout and
impoverished masses, secured 61.7 per cent of the vote to Mr Rafsanjani's 35.9
per cent in Friday's second round run-off. The turnout was about 60 per cent.
Mr Rafsanjani, seen as a pragmatic if Machiavellian cleric, had narrowly led
the list of seven candidates in the first round of voting, held a week earlier,
and had been expected to pick up more votes from liberal-minded voters anxious
to prevent a victory by his hardline rival.
In his first statement as president-elect, Mr Ahmadinejad declared in a
national broadcast: "I seek to create a modern, advanced, powerful and Islamic
model for the world. Let us convert competition to friendship - we are all a
nation and a big family."
His words reminded observers of similar slogans chanted in the early days of
Ayatollah Khomeini, who led the revolution that ousted the Shah a quarter of a
century ago.
World reaction to Mr Ahmadinejad's victory was mixed.
In Washington, the State Department indicated that the result would not change
the US's view of Iran as "out of step with the rest of the region in the
currents of freedom and liberty that have been so apparent in Iraq, Afghanistan
and Lebanon".
British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw urged Mr Ahmadinejad to address
international concerns over Iran's nuclear program.
But Russia, which has angered Washington over its close nuclear ties with Iran,
congratulated the new leader and pledged to continue its co-operation.
Mr Ahmadinejad, who has promised to give the poor a greater share of the
Islamic republic's abundant oil wealth, swept to victory after a campaign
focused largely on the hardships of the majority of the country's 68 million
people.
For the rest of the world, probably the most worrying aspect of Iran's step
into the political unknown will be what his victory means for nuclear policy.
A top Iranian nuclear scientist told The Sunday Times of London last week the
country would be "a very few years" away from enriching its own uranium for
fuel if it lifted its current suspension of enrichment activity.
It would then be only a step, using the same process, to create weapons-grade
fuel for an atomic bomb.
Mr Ahmadinejad has described nuclear energy as "the scientific achievement of
the Iranian nation", declaring: "No one can deprive the Iranian nation of this
right."
His words contrasted with comments by Mr Rafsanjani, who had been viewed by
many in the West as having a more pragmatic approach to negotiations on nuclear
policy.
However, Mr Rafsanjani will continue to wield considerable influence.
Mr Ahmadinejad will not have sole control over nuclear policy. A decisive role
will be played by Ayatollah Khamenei, Khomeini's successor as supreme leader,
and the Supreme National Security Council, to which Mr Ahmadinejad will be
elevated as president.
Under Iran's political system, the elected president is subordinate to the
supreme leader, who has the last word on all domestic and foreign policy and
directly controls the armed forces and intelligence services.
Of equal interest to foreign capitals will be the effects of Mr Ahmadinejad's
poll victory on other aspects of Iran's international policy.
The question will be: is Iran returning to earlier days when Khomeini saw it as
the country that would export Islamic revolution to the world, or will it
continue to pursue the more pragmatic policies that it has followed since
Khomeini's death in 1989?
Mr Ahmadinejad, who looks back proudly on his role during the revolution as a
member of the Office for Strengthening Unity - the student group that staged
the seizure of hostages at the US embassy - has made no secret of his distaste
for the US, or the UN, which he has described as "one-sided and stacked against
the world of Islam".
But it is on domestic affairs that he is certain to make his mark. As mayor he
has made clear his distaste for all things Western, famously ordering the
removal of advertising billboards featuring English soccer star David Beckham,
the only foreign face to appear in Iranian advertising since the Shah's regime.
His slogan during the campaign - "We did not make a revolution to have a
democracy" - appeared to anticipate a closing down of what had been a gradual
relaxation of social and political controls.
"The ideological right will infiltrate everything," said one Iranian analyst.
"There will be an overhaul of all ministries, and people in the security
services who are seen as having been too lenient on political dissidents will
be out."
The first to face Mr Ahmadinejad's "purifying" approach is likely to be the
Ministry of Islamic Guidance and Culture, effectively the information ministry.
The question most frequently asked on the weekend was how Mr Ahmadinejad, a
blacksmith's son, had managed the meteoric rise from governor of an obscure
province to mayor of Tehran - and then to president of one of the world's oil
powers in only two years.
The explanation lay in his ability to appeal directly to the people who felt
left out, either because of poverty or because they felt there was no place for
them in the corrupt and exclusive political constellation that replaced the
Shah.
While Mr Rafsanjani rarely left his office in affluent northern Tehran during
the campaign, Mr Ahmadinejad traversed the provinces, often in his ramshackle
orange campaign bus, repeating: "I have no money to spend on my campaign. No
party is supporting me. I am the people's servant."
It was only after the first round that Mr Rafsanjani appeared to realise his
error in not doing more to court the poor - responding on Wednesday, the last
day of campaigning, with promises of a mass privatisation program that would
make the people rich. They were clearly not convinced.
Mr Ahmadinejad was also helped in both rounds by the 8 million to 10 million
votes of the Revolutionary Guard and the Basij, a voluntary militia that has an
office in every village and is organised through the mosques.
The new president may struggle to satisfy the economic expectations he has
raised during the election. But the people of impoverished southern Tehran were
jubilant on Saturday, shouting excitedly to each other on the street, while the
middle class and wealthier people were dourly anticipating the change they
expect when he takes the presidency in two months.
Their opinions could be encompassed by one office worker, who declared: "We're
going back 20 years in history."
Another said more simply: "Tomorrow I start growing a beard."
The Sunday Times
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