Hi all,

I have two corHMM models within 2 AICc units of each other. They differ in
the number of hidden states (2 versus 3). I'm trying to decide how to
proceed from here and wondering if model-averaging would be the way to go.
I'm interested in drawing biological conclusions based on
the parameter estimates, and in doing ancestral character estimation
(strictly for visualization purposes only--I'm well aware of the caveats of
over-interpreting ACE states).

corHMM doesn't seem to have an in-built model averaging utility. But by
analogy with the one in hisse (modelAveRates), it seems as if it's just a
matter of averaging the parameter estimates based on model AIC weights. Is
it really that simple? How would I deal with the param present in one model
and not the other (related to the additional hidden state)? And then would
it be appropriate to run ACE using the averaged rate parameters? Or would
it be more appropriate to perform ACE separately for each model and then
average the node likelihoods instead?

Thanks,

-Rafa

*--*
*Rafael S. Marcondes, Ph.D. (he/him)*
(The R in Rafael is pronounced like the h in "hat")
*https://www.rafaelmarcondes.com/ <https://www.rafaelmarcondes.com/>*
Faculty Fellow in EEB
Department of BioSciences
Rice University
Houston TX 77005


*"Eu quase que nada não sei. Mas desconfio de muita coisa"*
*"I almost don't know nothing. But I suspect many things"*
  -João Guimarães Rosa, Brazilian novelist
(Portuguese original and free English translation by me)

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