On 2009-02-22, [email protected] <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>
> On Sun, 22 Feb 2009 12:46:36 -0800 (PST) delancey <[email protected]>
> writes:
> >
> >
>
> > .... And
> > folks like Vinge approach it with such a sense of inevitability that
> > they think 'ways it couldnot-happen' is a clever time-waster of a
> > parlor game.
>
>
> To be fair, Vernor Vinge himself has examined non-singularity future
> alternatives:
>
> http://www.transterrestrial.com/archives/010247.html
> http://www.kurzweilai.net/meme/frame.html?main=memelist.html?m=1%23696
> http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0696.html?printable=1(print-friendly 
> version of the above)
>
> http://media.longnow.org/seminars/salt-020070215-vinge/salt-020070215-vinge-web.mp3(.mp3
>  audio of the above, plus questions and answers)
>

I hadn't seen the others, but I've listened to the Long Now presentation.
Vinge's a rational guy, a scientist, so of course he admits of the
possibility that there won't be one. But as I recall that particular talk,
he frames it by saying that this is basically a game to him, because he's
sure it's going to happen (though far less sure what it will mean).

At one level, the future is always a singularity, so in a sense I suppose
'the singularity will happen' ends up being a tautology (because the future
will happen).




-- 
eric scoles ([email protected])

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