Keeping this in mind:

Half of the overall cases are expected within a period of a few weeks, with 95% 
in a period of around 10 weeks.

>From columnist Megan McArdle: There’s an old brain teaser that goes like this: 
>You have a pond of a certain size, and upon that pond, a single lilypad. This 
>particular species of lily pad reproduces once a day, so that on day two, you 
>have two lily pads. On day three, you have four, and so on.
Now the teaser. “If it takes the lily pads 48 days to cover the pond 
completely, how long will it take for the pond to be covered halfway?”
The answer is 47 days. Moreover, at day 40, you’ll barely know the lily pads 
are there.

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