Howard can lose,Trudy.----He loses if, despite his best efforts to weaken
the Republic case,and divide Republican supporters, the YES vote still gets
up on Nov.6.
He loses because there is one less major division in Australian
society ---Republicans v Monarchists---and division is the lifesblood of
unwanted politicians like Howard.
Laurie.
Laurie and Desley Forde [EMAIL PROTECTED]
--------------------------------------
Trudy Bray wrote........
-----Original Message-----
From: Trudy Bray <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: news-clip <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: Wednesday, October 27, 1999 10:04 AM
Subject: SMH - 'Yes' case on its last legs, say strategists
Bob Hogg has identified the culprit. Howard cheated the whole
process by manipulating to an outcome he wanted. He can't lose
either way. --- Trudy
===============================================
'Yes' case on its last legs, say strategists
Date: 27/10/99
By DAMIEN MURPHY
An Australian republic has all but been written off by some of the nation's
leading political strategists as supporters of the ''yes'' case
mount an all-out effort to attract voters in the last 10 days of the
referendum campaign.
Former ALP federal secretary and veteran campaigner Mr Bob Hogg said the
people running the republican movement were ''played off
a break'' by the Prime Minister, Mr Howard, in accepting a republican model
and were now paying the penalty of denying ordinary
people from ''having a say'' in what sort of republic they were voting on.
Mr Hogg said the Leader of the Opposition, Mr Beazley, was faced with the
daunting task of trying to convince Labor voters to ''suck it
and see'' when support for the republic was flagging.
Mr Tony Eggleton, the Liberal insider who served nine successive leaders
from Sir Robert Menzies, said the decline in ''yes'' support
simply reflected the truth of the political saying that ''disunity was
death''.
''I have been involved in a number of referenda campaigns since 1965. The
situation is reverting to form,'' Mr Eggleton said.
However, another former Liberal insider, Mr Andrew Robb, now convenor of
Conservatives for an Australian Head of State, said the
''yes'' case could be pulled from the fire if a number of leading
conservative figures came out in support of the republic.
''The 'no' case has been feeding off the 'Hanson factor' and people's fears
of the unknown,'' he said.
''The job ahead is to show the [republic] model is a safe step.''
Their comments came after a Herald-ACNielson poll showed the ''yes'' vote
had dropped 10 per cent to 33 per cent in the past fortnight,
with undecided voters ballooning 12 points to 26 per cent.
The Federal Minister for Employment Services, Mr Abbott, attempted to dampen
speculation that the republic was dead and buried by
talking down the ''no'' case.
He said the ''no'' case was still entitled to underdog status, despite the
poll indicating larger numbers of ''no'' voters, due to pressure from
the media in support of the republican case.
''The media are campaigning in this,'' Mr Abbott said.
''There's not a single person that anyone can identify in the Canberra press
gallery who has declared his or her hand as a 'no' voter.''
Mr Hogg said ''yes'' supporters had been ''manipulated'' by Mr Howard into
allowing a particular model republic be put to a vote.
''They should have just gone for a plebiscite to see if there was support
for a referendum and they probably would have got 65 per cent
support,'' he said. ''Then they could have worried about what sort of
republic it should be.
''Instead, they were rushed into it. All this talk about the Olympics, 2000,
it meant nothing.''
Mr Robb attributed the decline in ''yes'' support and rise in undecideds to
the fact that people polled some months back had backed the
republic in theory, but as referendum day neared they were faced with a
reality that made them baulk.
Mr Andrew McKenzie, assistant state secretary of the Victorian ALP, and the
man credited with developing the marginal seat strategy
successful in Mr Steve Bracks' victory over Mr Jeff Kennett in last month's
election, would not be drawn on pulling the ''yes' cause out
of the fire.
''I don't think it would be helpful at this stage to say anything in public
about the 'yes' campaign,'' he said.
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