If the deliberative poll is unrepresentative, then so is every other poll in
the country as the methods of choosing participants are identical - in fact
it was done by one of the major polling companies, Newspoll, I think.
So if its results are deemed unrepresentative then so are the results of
every other poll that shows people favour direct election and that direct
electionists keep quoting.
The advantage the deliberative poll had was that it actually provided people
with information, allowed them to ask experts from both sides direct
questions, and allowed them to discuss the ideas amongst themselves. Not
like conventional polling which just asks for a yes or no. If it's a social
experiment, then it's one with a lot of merit and I'd like to see more of
them. Why Antony Green would suggest that it being a social experiment
invalidates it is beyond me. Everything is new at some stage; doesn't mean
its wrong. Reconciliation is a social experiment.
As to my position being entrenched - in terms of voting Yes on Nov 6, then I
guess it is, though "entrenched" is rather more pejorative than the amount
of discussion I've been willing to be involved in suggests. But when it
comes to actually preferring a direct election to indirect appointment, then
I'm not entrenched at all and have said from the beginning that I actually
favour direct election is some ways - I just don't happen to think that
voting No is a useful way of getting that result.
Tim
-----Original Message-----
From: Trudy and Rod Bray <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Date: Friday, October 29, 1999 1:04 AM
Subject: Re: [recoznet2] Re: SMH - 'Yes' case on its last legs, say
strategists
>Tim,
>Your position is entrenched and so are many others. I just want to mention
that Anthony Green called the
>'deliberative poll' a social experiment and not a poll.
>A lot of people would disagree with you also about the 'poll' being
properly representative.
>
>Trudy
>
>tim:
>
>This is not true. The deliberative poll - which fulfils a reasonable
>defintion of being properly representative and of being an opportunity for
>ordinary people to assess the arguments - shows beyond doubt that once they
>are properly consulted and informed, people reject the direct election
>model. The figures were astounding - support for direct election dropped
>from 50% to 19% over the six weeks of the process. And the only response
>the No case has had is to denigrate the process, saying it was rigged. But
>the real lesson in this result was for direct electionists - it showed that
>they can't rely on a direct election model getting up. It doesn't
guarantee
>that it will be beaten, but it does show that the current figures of the
>regular polls showing high support for a direct election model can't be
>relied on once a concerted No campaign starts.
>
>
>
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