Hey, if the Sox allowed seven percent fewer runs, that would lop off 52 runs.
On Mon, Oct 4, 2010 at 12:28 PM, Ray Salemi <[email protected]> wrote: > Well let's go back to the beginning of the debate. John said, "I'd take > this year's team just as it is and it will win 99-100 games next year if it > stays pretty healthy" > > Then when I pushed back on the "Team as it is" I got, "Well if we change > the catching, the stopper, some of the bench players, and maybe a starter or > two." > > So that's not the same team. > > In a case as gross as this, you can ignore the 7% that defense plays in > season-long baseball. > > On Mon, Oct 4, 2010 at 9:21 AM, William Marino <[email protected]>wrote: > >> I think the debate is a little silly. Injuries AND awful pitching >> contributed to the lack of performance. You guys are counting hairs on a >> gnat’s ass to try to ascribe the effects of each. That’s really hard, to >> impossible. If I were counting, though, it put it about 60 hairs on the >> poor-pitching gnat’s ass, and 40 on the injuries gnat’s ass. >> >> >> >> But Ray, the one real problem with your thinking, as Steve points out, is >> your analysis ignores defense. Can’t do that. >> >> >> >> >> >> >> ------------------------------ >> >> *From:* [email protected] [mailto: >> [email protected]] *On Behalf Of *Beaudoin, John >> *Sent:* Monday, October 04, 2010 9:07 AM >> *To:* [email protected] >> >> *Subject:* Re: "From the depths of Hell I stab at thee!" >> >> >> >> Yeah. >> What he said. >> So there. >> Good job Steve. >> >> John >> >> >> ------------------------------ >> >> *From*: [email protected] <[email protected]> >> >> *To*: [email protected] <[email protected]> >> *Sent*: Mon Oct 04 06:01:57 2010 >> *Subject*: Re: "From the depths of Hell I stab at thee!" >> >> I am so tired of baseball ... >> >> Since defense is hard to judge, you've decided to ignore it completely. >> The difference defensively from Pedroia and Youkilis to their replacements >> is enormous, as is the difference between an Ellsbury/Cameron outfield and >> the detritus we ran out there this year. That alone would shave a number of >> runs off the allowed column. >> >> The starting pitching does not need any kind of overhaul, unless you >> expect that Josh Beckett will again miss a third of the season (another >> inconsequential injury) and once more put up a 5.78 ERA -- which we have no >> reason to expect -- and that John Lackey will continue to be terrible, which >> again, we have no reason to expect. >> >> Last year the Sox scored 872 runs, allowed 736 (just eight fewer than this >> horrendous year), won 95 games and the wild card (and exactly matched their >> pythag record). >> >> Say that better defense could have cut 15 runs off the allowed total this >> year-- a very small number, if you've ever watched Billy Hall play the OF -- >> then how many more runs do the Sox have to score to get to 95 wins from 89? >> >> If healthy, could the Sox have matched 2009's 872 runs? They got better >> production this year at SS (Scutaro over Nick Green/Lugo/Agon), a nearly >> full season of Victor Martinez over Varitek, Adrian Beltre matched Jason >> Bay's production, Big Papi boosted his OPS by 100 points. Why couldn't they? >> Oh yeah, they were missing the first three guys in their lineup for most of >> the year. >> >> Put another way -- do you think Dustin Pedroia is worth two wins more than >> Billy Hall over a half season? Is Kevin Youkilis worth a win a month over >> Lars Anderson/crippled Mike Lowell? Is Jacoby Ellsbury worth just two wins >> over Daniel Nava/Darnell McDonald/Hall/Kalish/Hermida/Van Every/Reddick over >> the course of a full year? Just two? >> >> That's six wins right there -- ignoring all the other injuries, and at >> bats given to Gustavo Molina and Kevin Cash -- which would bring them to 95 >> ... tied with the Yankees, one behind the Rays. And I'm figuring at least >> one of those six wins would be against one of those teams ... >> >> It's just ludicrous to say that injuries didn't matter. If they just >> revamped the bullpen and resigned Martinez and Beltre, I'd take that team. >> >> Steve O >> >> On Mon, Oct 4, 2010 at 7:40 AM, Ray Salemi <[email protected]> wrote: >> >> Steve, >> >> >> >> You're overestimating the impact of these players. While the press likes >> to play up the monumental losses associated with these injuries, that's more >> hype than reality. The Sox had excellent replacement players, and >> demonstrated outstanding organizational depth at most player positions. >> Otherwise they would not have scored the 2nd most runs in the league. >> >> >> >> The pitching was so bad that the Sox would have had to scored 80 more runs >> to make the playoffs. That's not possible based simply on injuries. >> >> >> >> Ray >> >> >> >> PS. Here's the calc behind the 898. It's based on the Bill James >> Pythagorean system. >> >> >> >> Projected Winning Percentage = (Runs Scored)^2/ (Runs Scored^2 + Runs >> allowed ^2) (^2 = squared) >> >> >> >> Let's say the Sox, with no injuries, scored the most runs in baseball. >> That would be 860 (Yanks had 859). >> >> >> >> With the runs we scored and gave up 818/744 the pythagorean system says we >> should have had 88 wins. And we did. >> >> >> >> With the most runs in the league 860/744 the pythagorean system says we >> would have had 93 wins. Still not enough for the playoffs. >> >> >> >> The Red Sox would have had to score 898 runs to get to 96 wins based on >> their pitching. So you're saying that the injuries made a difference of 80 >> runs over the course of the season. >> >> >> >> That's a fantasy. >> >> >> >> The pitching on this team was so bad that no amount of health on the part >> of our starting players would have made up for it. The Sox gave up 744 >> runs. The Yankees gave up 693 runs, and the Rays gave up 649 runs--almost >> 100 fewer runs. >> >> >> >> Ray >> >> >> >> On Mon, Oct 4, 2010 at 6:38 AM, Steve Ouellette <[email protected]> >> wrote: >> >> Yes, the bullpen needs to be fixed. The pitching was a huge disappointment >> -- particularly Beckett and Lackey. But to say that the losses of Pedroia, >> Youkilis, Ellsbury, Cameron, et al. had a "marginal" effect on the team is >> ridiculous and illogical. >> >> Sure, the offense was productive -- does that mean that scoring more runs >> would NOT have led to more victories? Run differential leads to victories, >> doesn't matter which side it comes on. And don't forget that the players >> missing were also some of our best defensive players -- the drop from >> Pedroia, Youkilis and Ellsbury to Hall, Lowell and Nava is huge. I don't >> know what the defensive numbers say, but I'm guessing the Sox defense once >> again will measure as sub par. >> >> For sanity, we have to replace Papelbon, and bring in more bullpen arms. >> Beltre and Victor have to be resigned or replaced. But the team doesn't need >> a massive overhaul. >> >> Steve O >> >> On Sun, Oct 3, 2010 at 10:28 PM, Ray Salemi <[email protected]> wrote: >> >> This team, if we kept them next year, would struggle to reach the 91 >> games I predicted for them this year. >> >> >> >> The injuries actually had a marginal effect on this team. We mostly lost >> hitters and still came in 2nd in runs scored. >> >> >> >> The problem was pitching, and these problems were not due to injuries. If >> we go into next year with this rotation and bullpen we might, indeed, reach >> my prediction of 91 games. >> >> >> >> Here's what we'd have if we kept this year's "dream team". >> >> >> >> 1. Varitek -- 1 year older >> >> 2. Ortiz -- 1 year older >> >> 3. Lowell -- 1 year older >> >> 4. Wakefield -- 1 year older >> >> >> >> Then for a rotation we'd have (League average ERA was 4.14) >> >> >> >> Beckett -- 5.78 ERA >> >> Dice-K -- 4.69 ERA >> >> Lackey -- 4.40 ERA >> >> >> >> Closer Papelbon -- 3.90 ERA >> >> >> >> >> >> This is a 100-win team? What does this team have in common with any >> 100-win teams in the past? >> >> >> >> Nothing, that's what. >> >> >> >> As my friend said at the game today, "It's time to pull the bandaid off >> all at once." >> >> >> >> This team needs a major house cleaning. >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> >> On Sun, Oct 3, 2010 at 7:34 PM, Beaudoin, John <[email protected]> >> wrote: >> >> I want the same team next year. >> If marginally healthy, then they'll win 99 games. If average healthy then >> they'll win 102 games or more. >> >> John >> >> >> >> ----- Original Message ----- >> From: [email protected] <[email protected]> >> To: [email protected] <[email protected]> >> Sent: Sun Oct 03 16:14:25 2010 >> Subject: Re: "From the depths of Hell I stab at thee!" >> >> I wanted to take a swing at Swisher when he dove somewhat into the >> stands trying to catch the HR however instead watched him lay on the >> ground in pain while the guys 3 rows back fought over the ball. >> >> Great game - I'm not a Lackey fan however if he can pitch like he did >> today for the most part next year, we have a solid 1,2, and 3 starting >> pitcher punch already in place. >> >> -larry >> >> On Sun, Oct 3, 2010 at 6:35 PM, Dan DiBiase <[email protected]> wrote: >> > But did you get Lowrie's??!! >> > >> > Dan D >> > Central NJ USA >> > >> > >> > >> > ________________________________ >> > From: Larry Rupp <[email protected]> >> > To: [email protected] >> > Sent: Sun, October 3, 2010 12:12:50 PM >> > Subject: Re: "From the depths of Hell I stab at thee!" >> > >> > See you there Ray - I'll be manning the Pesky pole area for an Ortiz >> > homerun! >> > >> > On Sun, Oct 3, 2010 at 11:20 AM, Ray Salemi <[email protected]> wrote: >> >> I'm off to Fenway to see if the Sox can put a final hurt on the >> Yankees. >> >> It turned out to be a big game after all. >> >> >> >> -- >> >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >> Groups >> >> "Red Sox Citizens" group. >> >> To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >> >> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >> >> [email protected]<redsoxcitizens%[email protected]> >> . >> >> For more options, visit this group at >> >> http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. >> >> >> > >> > -- >> > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >> Groups >> > "Red Sox Citizens" group. >> > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >> > To 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