I'm hoping this is all moot and that Theo will do the necessary housecleaning this year.
On Mon, Oct 4, 2010 at 1:12 PM, Steve Ouellette <[email protected]>wrote: > Hey, if the Sox allowed seven percent fewer runs, that would lop off 52 > runs. > > On Mon, Oct 4, 2010 at 12:28 PM, Ray Salemi > <[email protected]<[email protected]> > > wrote: > >> Well let's go back to the beginning of the debate. John said, "I'd take >> this year's team just as it is and it will win 99-100 games next year if it >> stays pretty healthy" >> >> Then when I pushed back on the "Team as it is" I got, "Well if we change >> the catching, the stopper, some of the bench players, and maybe a starter or >> two." >> >> So that's not the same team. >> >> In a case as gross as this, you can ignore the 7% that defense plays in >> season-long baseball. >> >> On Mon, Oct 4, 2010 at 9:21 AM, William Marino <[email protected]>wrote: >> >>> I think the debate is a little silly. Injuries AND awful pitching >>> contributed to the lack of performance. You guys are counting hairs on a >>> gnat’s ass to try to ascribe the effects of each. That’s really hard, to >>> impossible. If I were counting, though, it put it about 60 hairs on the >>> poor-pitching gnat’s ass, and 40 on the injuries gnat’s ass. >>> >>> >>> >>> But Ray, the one real problem with your thinking, as Steve points out, is >>> your analysis ignores defense. Can’t do that. >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> ------------------------------ >>> >>> *From:* [email protected] [mailto: >>> [email protected]] *On Behalf Of *Beaudoin, John >>> *Sent:* Monday, October 04, 2010 9:07 AM >>> *To:* [email protected] >>> >>> *Subject:* Re: "From the depths of Hell I stab at thee!" >>> >>> >>> >>> Yeah. >>> What he said. >>> So there. >>> Good job Steve. >>> >>> John >>> >>> >>> ------------------------------ >>> >>> *From*: [email protected] <[email protected]> >>> >>> *To*: [email protected] <[email protected]> >>> *Sent*: Mon Oct 04 06:01:57 2010 >>> *Subject*: Re: "From the depths of Hell I stab at thee!" >>> >>> I am so tired of baseball ... >>> >>> Since defense is hard to judge, you've decided to ignore it completely. >>> The difference defensively from Pedroia and Youkilis to their replacements >>> is enormous, as is the difference between an Ellsbury/Cameron outfield and >>> the detritus we ran out there this year. That alone would shave a number of >>> runs off the allowed column. >>> >>> The starting pitching does not need any kind of overhaul, unless you >>> expect that Josh Beckett will again miss a third of the season (another >>> inconsequential injury) and once more put up a 5.78 ERA -- which we have no >>> reason to expect -- and that John Lackey will continue to be terrible, which >>> again, we have no reason to expect. >>> >>> Last year the Sox scored 872 runs, allowed 736 (just eight fewer than >>> this horrendous year), won 95 games and the wild card (and exactly matched >>> their pythag record). >>> >>> Say that better defense could have cut 15 runs off the allowed total this >>> year-- a very small number, if you've ever watched Billy Hall play the OF -- >>> then how many more runs do the Sox have to score to get to 95 wins from 89? >>> >>> If healthy, could the Sox have matched 2009's 872 runs? They got better >>> production this year at SS (Scutaro over Nick Green/Lugo/Agon), a nearly >>> full season of Victor Martinez over Varitek, Adrian Beltre matched Jason >>> Bay's production, Big Papi boosted his OPS by 100 points. Why couldn't they? >>> Oh yeah, they were missing the first three guys in their lineup for most of >>> the year. >>> >>> Put another way -- do you think Dustin Pedroia is worth two wins more >>> than Billy Hall over a half season? Is Kevin Youkilis worth a win a month >>> over Lars Anderson/crippled Mike Lowell? Is Jacoby Ellsbury worth just two >>> wins over Daniel Nava/Darnell McDonald/Hall/Kalish/Hermida/Van Every/Reddick >>> over the course of a full year? Just two? >>> >>> That's six wins right there -- ignoring all the other injuries, and at >>> bats given to Gustavo Molina and Kevin Cash -- which would bring them to 95 >>> ... tied with the Yankees, one behind the Rays. And I'm figuring at least >>> one of those six wins would be against one of those teams ... >>> >>> It's just ludicrous to say that injuries didn't matter. If they just >>> revamped the bullpen and resigned Martinez and Beltre, I'd take that team. >>> >>> Steve O >>> >>> On Mon, Oct 4, 2010 at 7:40 AM, Ray Salemi <[email protected]> wrote: >>> >>> Steve, >>> >>> >>> >>> You're overestimating the impact of these players. While the press likes >>> to play up the monumental losses associated with these injuries, that's more >>> hype than reality. The Sox had excellent replacement players, and >>> demonstrated outstanding organizational depth at most player positions. >>> Otherwise they would not have scored the 2nd most runs in the league. >>> >>> >>> >>> The pitching was so bad that the Sox would have had to scored 80 more >>> runs to make the playoffs. That's not possible based simply on injuries. >>> >>> >>> >>> Ray >>> >>> >>> >>> PS. Here's the calc behind the 898. It's based on the Bill James >>> Pythagorean system. >>> >>> >>> >>> Projected Winning Percentage = (Runs Scored)^2/ (Runs Scored^2 + Runs >>> allowed ^2) (^2 = squared) >>> >>> >>> >>> Let's say the Sox, with no injuries, scored the most runs in baseball. >>> That would be 860 (Yanks had 859). >>> >>> >>> >>> With the runs we scored and gave up 818/744 the pythagorean system says >>> we should have had 88 wins. And we did. >>> >>> >>> >>> With the most runs in the league 860/744 the pythagorean system says we >>> would have had 93 wins. Still not enough for the playoffs. >>> >>> >>> >>> The Red Sox would have had to score 898 runs to get to 96 wins based on >>> their pitching. So you're saying that the injuries made a difference of 80 >>> runs over the course of the season. >>> >>> >>> >>> That's a fantasy. >>> >>> >>> >>> The pitching on this team was so bad that no amount of health on the part >>> of our starting players would have made up for it. The Sox gave up 744 >>> runs. The Yankees gave up 693 runs, and the Rays gave up 649 runs--almost >>> 100 fewer runs. >>> >>> >>> >>> Ray >>> >>> >>> >>> On Mon, Oct 4, 2010 at 6:38 AM, Steve Ouellette <[email protected]> >>> wrote: >>> >>> Yes, the bullpen needs to be fixed. The pitching was a huge >>> disappointment -- particularly Beckett and Lackey. But to say that the >>> losses of Pedroia, Youkilis, Ellsbury, Cameron, et al. had a "marginal" >>> effect on the team is ridiculous and illogical. >>> >>> Sure, the offense was productive -- does that mean that scoring more runs >>> would NOT have led to more victories? Run differential leads to victories, >>> doesn't matter which side it comes on. And don't forget that the players >>> missing were also some of our best defensive players -- the drop from >>> Pedroia, Youkilis and Ellsbury to Hall, Lowell and Nava is huge. I don't >>> know what the defensive numbers say, but I'm guessing the Sox defense once >>> again will measure as sub par. >>> >>> For sanity, we have to replace Papelbon, and bring in more bullpen arms. >>> Beltre and Victor have to be resigned or replaced. But the team doesn't need >>> a massive overhaul. >>> >>> Steve O >>> >>> On Sun, Oct 3, 2010 at 10:28 PM, Ray Salemi <[email protected]> wrote: >>> >>> This team, if we kept them next year, would struggle to reach the 91 >>> games I predicted for them this year. >>> >>> >>> >>> The injuries actually had a marginal effect on this team. We mostly lost >>> hitters and still came in 2nd in runs scored. >>> >>> >>> >>> The problem was pitching, and these problems were not due to injuries. >>> If we go into next year with this rotation and bullpen we might, indeed, >>> reach my prediction of 91 games. >>> >>> >>> >>> Here's what we'd have if we kept this year's "dream team". >>> >>> >>> >>> 1. Varitek -- 1 year older >>> >>> 2. Ortiz -- 1 year older >>> >>> 3. Lowell -- 1 year older >>> >>> 4. Wakefield -- 1 year older >>> >>> >>> >>> Then for a rotation we'd have (League average ERA was 4.14) >>> >>> >>> >>> Beckett -- 5.78 ERA >>> >>> Dice-K -- 4.69 ERA >>> >>> Lackey -- 4.40 ERA >>> >>> >>> >>> Closer Papelbon -- 3.90 ERA >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> This is a 100-win team? What does this team have in common with any >>> 100-win teams in the past? >>> >>> >>> >>> Nothing, that's what. >>> >>> >>> >>> As my friend said at the game today, "It's time to pull the bandaid off >>> all at once." >>> >>> >>> >>> This team needs a major house cleaning. >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> On Sun, Oct 3, 2010 at 7:34 PM, Beaudoin, John <[email protected]> >>> wrote: >>> >>> I want the same team next year. >>> If marginally healthy, then they'll win 99 games. If average healthy >>> then they'll win 102 games or more. >>> >>> John >>> >>> >>> >>> ----- Original Message ----- >>> From: [email protected] <[email protected]> >>> To: [email protected] <[email protected]> >>> Sent: Sun Oct 03 16:14:25 2010 >>> Subject: Re: "From the depths of Hell I stab at thee!" >>> >>> I wanted to take a swing at Swisher when he dove somewhat into the >>> stands trying to catch the HR however instead watched him lay on the >>> ground in pain while the guys 3 rows back fought over the ball. >>> >>> Great game - I'm not a Lackey fan however if he can pitch like he did >>> today for the most part next year, we have a solid 1,2, and 3 starting >>> pitcher punch already in place. >>> >>> -larry >>> >>> On Sun, Oct 3, 2010 at 6:35 PM, Dan DiBiase <[email protected]> wrote: >>> > But did you get Lowrie's??!! >>> > >>> > Dan D >>> > Central NJ USA >>> > >>> > >>> > >>> > ________________________________ >>> > From: Larry Rupp <[email protected]> >>> > To: [email protected] >>> > Sent: Sun, October 3, 2010 12:12:50 PM >>> > Subject: Re: "From the depths of Hell I stab at thee!" >>> > >>> > See you there Ray - I'll be manning the Pesky pole area for an Ortiz >>> > homerun! >>> > >>> > On Sun, Oct 3, 2010 at 11:20 AM, Ray Salemi <[email protected]> wrote: >>> >> I'm off to Fenway to see if the Sox can put a final hurt on the >>> Yankees. >>> >> It turned out to be a big game after all. >>> >> >>> >> -- >>> >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>> Groups >>> >> "Red Sox Citizens" group. >>> >> To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. >>> >> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >>> >> [email protected]<redsoxcitizens%[email protected]> >>> . >>> >> For more options, visit this group at >>> >> http://groups.google.com/group/redsoxcitizens?hl=en. >>> >> >>> > >>> > -- >>> > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >>> Groups >>> > "Red Sox Citizens" group. >>> > To 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