What I'm saying is that the following analysis:

Catcher - Offense might be a bit better with Davis Salty
First Base - I think Napoli is a downgrade from Gonzalez.
SEcond base - same
3B - I hope Middlebrooks delivers. Not willing to say he's going to perform
better than Youk.
SS - Who knows.
LF - Crawford was a talent and certainly better than Jonny Gomes.
CF - Ellsbury should have a better year.
RF - Vittorino vs. Ross - I'll give V the upgrade.

is, at core, a prediction about how well the Sox will play given these
moves.  We say these things "upgrade" "downgrade" etc because we're
predicting that the Sox's chances of playing well given the moves.

As for avoiding big long term deals, I'm saying that these deals, more
often than not, do NOT help the improve the team's chances.  Instead they
tie up a lot of resources in one or two players.  Then when we get a Lackey
or  a Crawford or a Dice-K etc the result is a disaster for the team.


On Fri, Dec 14, 2012 at 12:07 PM, Tom Salemi <[email protected]> wrote:

> Blathering? Really? That seems like a criticism and honestly I don't think
> this list produces all that many emails.
>
>
>
> On Fri, Dec 14, 2012 at 11:54 AM, Ray Salemi <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>> All the blathering we do on the list about deals assumes a prediction.
>> Otherwise there's no real reason to support or oppose a move.
>>
>> Unless, of course, one just despises the guy.  I don't have any
>> confidence that Farrell will make a difference to the winning percentage,
>> but I'm glad that Bobby V is gone.
>>
>> Sent from my iPhone
>>
>> On Dec 14, 2012, at 9:43 AM, Tom Salemi <[email protected]> wrote:
>>
>> Where have I made a prediction?
>>
>> On Fri, Dec 14, 2012 at 11:41 AM, Ray Salemi <[email protected]> wrote:
>>
>>> You seem to be making some prediction about the Sox chances for success
>>> since you don't agree with last year's plan of creating financial
>>> flexibility.
>>>
>>> So what is that prediction?
>>>
>>> Sent from my iPhone
>>>
>>> On Dec 14, 2012, at 9:25 AM, Tom Salemi <[email protected]> wrote:
>>>
>>> I can't really see one that I'd be comfortable with. I won't bet against
>>> the Sox success.
>>>
>>>
>>> On Fri, Dec 14, 2012 at 11:24 AM, Ray Salemi <[email protected]> wrote:
>>>
>>>> I see a wager in the works.
>>>>
>>>> Sent from my iPhone
>>>>
>>>> On Dec 14, 2012, at 9:06 AM, Tom Salemi <[email protected]> wrote:
>>>>
>>>> Oh, it's gonna be a lively Christmas dinner discussion this year .... :)
>>>>
>>>> On Fri, Dec 14, 2012 at 11:04 AM, Ray Salemi <[email protected]> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> I'm not interested in blockbuster players anymore.  I think it's too
>>>>> many eggs in one basket.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On Thu, Dec 13, 2012 at 7:16 PM, Matt & Olga McSorley <
>>>>> [email protected]> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> Nick Cafardo writes that the Sox should have chased Josh Hamilton.
>>>>>> That, of course, means they did the right thing passing him up.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2012/12/sox_should_have.html
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>    ------------------------------
>>>>>> *From:* Matt & Olga McSorley <[email protected]>
>>>>>> *To:* "[email protected]" <
>>>>>> [email protected]>
>>>>>> *Sent:* Thursday, December 13, 2012 7:41 PM
>>>>>>
>>>>>> *Subject:* Re: Sox get Dempster
>>>>>>
>>>>>> He meets present Sox criteria:
>>>>>>
>>>>>> 1. Warm body.
>>>>>> 2. Short-term deal.
>>>>>> 3. No draft-pick compensation.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I'm not sold on the plan, but we can't say they don't have one.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>   ------------------------------
>>>>>> *From:* Steve Ouellette <[email protected]>
>>>>>> *To:* [email protected]
>>>>>> *Sent:* Thursday, December 13, 2012 4:20 PM
>>>>>> *Subject:* Re: Sox get Dempster
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Meh.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On Thu, Dec 13, 2012 at 3:59 PM, Tom Salemi <[email protected]>wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>> From EEI art
>>>>>>
>>>>>> One major league source suggested that the Sox should -- and likely
>>>>>> do  -- have “modest expectations” for the veteran, describing him as the
>>>>>> best option available on a relatively short-term deal that permits the 
>>>>>> team
>>>>>> to minimize risk, rather than a true impact starter who can transform a
>>>>>> rotation.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> “He’ll carve up weaker lineups and will be a positive clubhouse guy,”
>>>>>> said the source. “[But it's] hard to expect much against the deeper 
>>>>>> lineups
>>>>>> and I don’t think [the Sox] do.”
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Sounds about right. I guess $13m doesn't get you what it once did.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I guess he's making $2m less than Beckett
>>>>>>
>>>>>>                        ERA    WHIP       SO/9
>>>>>> Becket            4.65    1.327       7
>>>>>> Demps           3.85    1.319        8.7
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On Thu, Dec 13, 2012 at 3:51 PM, Dan DiBiase <[email protected]>wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Not crazy about the Dempster signing. Basically  career NL pitcher
>>>>>> who was rocked last year in the AL (except when
>>>>>> he pitched against us.............).
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Angels be crazy.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Dan D
>>>>>> Central NJ USA
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>   ------------------------------
>>>>>> *From:* Tom Salemi <[email protected]>
>>>>>> *To:* [email protected]
>>>>>> *Sent:* Thursday, December 13, 2012 3:28 PM
>>>>>> *Subject:* Sox get Dempster
>>>>>>
>>>>>> two years at $26.5 million ($13m per again)
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Josh Hamilton goes to Angels for 5 years/$125m.
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