Last Updated: Wednesday, 26 February, 2003, 13:57 GMT
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Can the US sway the Security Council?
Can US influence and cajoling sway the Security Council?
The United States has the backing at the Security Council of the
United Kingdom, Spain and Bulgaria for its position on Iraq. How easy is it
going to be for the US to win over the other 11 members of the current
council?
Angola:
Stated position: At a Franco-African summit, Angola backed the
French position calling for continued and strengthened inspections.
Room for manoeuvre: Angola is expected to abstain but may
eventually come round to the US position because of its dependence on the US
for aid and trade. American oil companies are the biggest investors in
Angola and the US is its biggest single aid donor. The UK's Minister of
State for Africa, Baroness Amos, is visiting Angola, Guinea and Cameroon in
support of a second Iraq resolution.
Other factors: Angola is emerging form 25 years of civil war.
The majority of Angolans do not benefit from country's huge oil wealth. Life
expectancy in Angola, for example, is the lowest in Africa.
Cameroon:
Stated position: Cameroon has backed the French position calling
for continued and strengthened inspections.
Room for manoeuvre: As a member of the Commonwealth, Cameroon
may be susceptible to pressure from Britain.
Chile:
Stated position: Chile is staunchly opposed to a war in Iraq,
and insists that the final decision on a war should be the UN's alone. It is
expected to vote against a second resolution on Iraq.
Other factors: Chile is hoping to negotiate a free trade
agreement with the US. This is awaiting ratification by the legislatures of
both countries.
China:
Stated position: Beijing supports further weapons inspections
and has argued that there is no justification for military action, nor any
need for a new resolution.
Room for manoeuvre: Analysts say that China is unlikely to veto
the new draft resolution on Iraq, but is more likely to abstain.
Other factors: China is susceptible to US pressure on a range of
issues, above all trade. A recent visit to Beijing by US Secretary of State
Colin Powell did not reveal which way China was likely to go.
France:
Stated position: Paris has serious reservations about an attack
on Iraq and continues to press for a diplomatic solution. France and
Germany, backed by Russia, have countered the new Anglo-American draft
resolution with their own memorandum pushing for an extra four months of
enhanced weapons inspections.
Room for manoeuvre: France has led the opposition to a war in
Iraq at the Security Council and has borne angry criticism and scorn from US
officials as a result. There is some room for manoeuvre - France has not
ruled out the use of force against Iraq; it is arguing that inspections are
working and diplomacy has not been exhausted.
Other factors: US officials has argued that French opposition to
war is based not on principle but on oil interests negotiated since the last
Gulf War.
Germany:
Stated position: Germany is the only major European nation that
has said it will not take part in an attack on Iraq, even if endorsed by the
Security Council.
Room for manoeuvre: There is little ambiguity in Chancellor
Gerhard Schroeder's position. He was re-elected in 2002 on a ticket of
opposing a war in Iraq. The traditionally close relationship between Germany
and the US has come under severe strain because of differences over Iraq.
Other factors: A consequence of the US-German estrangement may
be that Washington will cut and downgrade its network of military bases in
Germany and move them to the more sympathetic states of Eastern Europe.
Guinea:
Stated position: Guinea has backed the French position calling
for continued and strengthened inspections.
Room for manoeuvre: Guinea is seen as one of the undecided
states on the council. It receives $50m of aid, arms and military assistance
from the US, and therefore may vote with Washington.
Mexico:
Stated position: The government line is that Iraq should be
disarmed, but that weapons inspections should be given more time.
Room for manoeuvre: Mexico is having to balance delicately
between popular domestic opinion which is overwhelming against the war and
the wishes of its powerful northern neighbour. Mexican officials have said
they are seeking "a consensus position" between the US and UK sponsored
resolution and the French and German proposals. Mexico is expected, in the
end, to vote with the US.
Other factors: Mexico is massively reliant on US trade and aid -
80% of its trade is with America. Mexico and the US are currently
negotiating a comprehensive immigration treaty to safeguard the rights of
the estimated 10 to 12 million legal and illegal Mexican immigrants in the
US.
Pakistan:
Stated position: As a member of the Non-Aligned Movement,
Pakistan has backed a statement opposing unilateral action on Iraq,
stressing the importance of the UN as the avenue for dealing with
international crises.
Room for manoeuvre: Pakistan's relations with the US have
improved dramatically in recent years, and it might be persuaded by an
analysis of its national interest to back Washington.
Other factors: Karachi's alliance with the US over Afghanistan
and in the "war on terror" after 11 September was a very significant
decision, winning it aid and trade and gaining it international recognition
in its disputes with India.
Russia:
Stated position: Russia has called for the UN weapons inspectors
to be given more time to complete their work and insisted that the
inspections have not provided evidence that would justify a war in Iraq.
Room for manoeuvre: Though clearly opposed to a war in Iraq,
Moscow might in fact abstain from a vote on a second resolution rather than
use its veto. President Vladimir Putin has assiduously worked to build up
relations with the US and has carefully avoided committing himself
absolutely on Iraq. He may on the other hand balance this desire for close
relations with the US with Russia's important ties with Germany, the biggest
foreign investor in his country.
Other factors: President Putin may be looking for US guarantees
that a future Iraqi Government would honour its debt to Russia of about $8bn
for past purchases of weapons and other goods.
Syria:
Stated position: Syria is adamantly opposed to a war in Iraq and
is expected to vote against a second resolution.
Room for manoeuvre: Syria has traditionally opposed Saddam
Hussein and sent forces to the Gulf War in 1991. It is highly unlikely to do
so again, as it views US military action as part of an attempt to install
puppet regimes in the region to serve US and Israeli interests.
c/
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