Extrem de pertinenta analiza si obiectiva. As gfi curioasa cum ar fi facut-o un
jurnalist roman.
A.D.
Vali Nas <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
The Economist
Bulgaria and Romania
The new kids on the block
Jan 4th 2007 | BUCHAREST AND SOFIA
>From The Economist print edition
The European Union's two newest members, Bulgaria and Romania, are both
economically and politically backward
WILL it work again? It is tempting to join the revellers in Bucharest and
Sofia who seem to believe that European Union membership promises untold
riches. The eight ex-communist states that joined in 2004 have done pretty
well. Bulgaria and Romania are already growing strongly; EU money will help.
Yet the Balkan pair differ from their predecessors. Bulgaria's GDP per head
in 2005 was only $3,480 and Romania's $4,490against $9,240 for the eight
entrants in 2004, and an EU-wide average of $29,330. And they are backward in
many other ways. Infrastructure and public services are worse than in the rest
of eastern Europe; corruption is more entrenched, and the political culture
more fragile.
Although united by weak institutions and their poverty, Bulgaria and Romania
differ in size, history, politics and economic structure. Romania, with some
22m people, is the second-biggest eastern European country after Poland.
Bulgaria is just over a third as big. This could be a plus, as small countries'
elites often work better. But Romania's political class has recently outscored
Bulgaria's. Big countries also matter more to foreign investors.
Both countries are on the edge of the EU, but whereas Bulgarians feel out of
the mainstream, Romanians do not. They see themselves as a Latin outpost in a
sea of Slavs. Their language is linked to Italian and French. Bulgarian is a
Slavic tongue, as close to Russian as Danish is to Swedish.
Each has a sizeable ethnic minority from a neighbour. In Romania some 7% of
the population are ethnic Hungarians. The Hungarian minority's party, the HDUR,
is a fixture in coalition governments, which has blunted its reforming edge.
About 9% of Bulgaria's population are ethnic Turks, poorer and less educated
than their fellow citizens. Their party, led by Ahmed Dogan, is a frequent
target of complaints by anti-corruption campaigners. Both countries also have
big Roma (gypsy) populations, often living in abominable conditions, worse than
under communism.
The Balkan pair view Russia differently. Bulgarians thanked Tsarist Russia
for liberating them from the Ottomans, and many recall communist rule as a time
of modernisation. To Romanians, Russia is a predator. It took an eastern
province from them in 1812. Romania regained it in 1918 and lost it again to
the Soviet Union in 1940-41. This region, plus a strip of land bordering
Ukraine, is now Moldova.
Romania, under its president, Traian Basescu, is a bastion of Atlanticism in
the Black Sea region. Bulgaria is largely passive in foreign policy, though it
has good relations with Russia. Bulgaria's prime minister, Sergei Stanishev,
studied in Moscow; past Romanian leaders did so too, but to admit it now would
spell political doom. Mr Basescu decries communism as criminal, but Bulgarian
leaders only mumble.
In politics, Romania is noted for the recurrent conflict between Mr Basescu
and his prime minister, Calin Popescu Tariceanu. Only the need to get into the
EU has held Mr Basescu's Democratic Party together in government with Mr
Tariceanu's National Liberal Party. In Bulgaria the prime minister and
president come from the same party. But the coalition combines the Socialists
(ex-communists), quasi-monarchists led by former King Simeon II and Mr Dogan's
lot. Elections may take place in both countries this year.
Joining the EU has meant intense pressure to meet Brussels standards, which
neither country yet does. The biggest worry is lawlessness. In Romania this
takes the form of corruption; in Bulgaria, of organised crime. Criminal-justice
systems are weak, and high-level sleaze widespread. Romania has made more
progress: its non-party justice minister, Monica Macovei, is an effective
administrator who has shaken up the structure and accountability of the
judiciary and the prosecutor's office.
Bulgaria has moved more slowly. Some politicians still seem untouchable, as
do some organised-crime groups. A recent OECD study rates Bulgaria higher for
investment promotion, but Romania higher on anti-corruption and business
integrity. Some senior Romanian officials and politicians have lost their jobs
and even their freedom. The investigation of a former prime minister, Adrian
Nastase, is a contrast to the immunity that Bulgaria's political class still
enjoys.
Managers with experience in both countries say that Romanians are more
individualistic than Bulgarians. In Romania the problem is getting them to
work in a team. In Bulgaria the problem is getting them to show any
initiative, says one. Higher education is bureaucratic and complacent.
Infrastructure is dire; transport links between the two countries are awful,
with just one road bridge across the Danube. A big road programme in Romania is
bogged down in tendering scandals. Improvements will take EU cash, which may
add 2% to GDP in 2007-13. It is hard to be confident that it will be well
spent.
The main macroeconomic difference is that Romania's currency floats, whereas
Bulgaria's is pegged to the euro. Both countries have huge current-account
deficits: Bulgaria's was some 13.5% of GDP in 2006, Romania's 10.3%. Continuing
inflation means that euro adoption is at least a decade away. Romania's
demographic outlook is good by post-communist standards, with only a mild
population decline that is expected to slow as income levels and health care
improve. But Bulgaria's is one of the worst in eastern Europe: its population
will fall below 7m by 2020.
Then there is emigration, encouraged by low pay, poor working conditions and
bad public services. As many as 2m Romanians and 800,000 Bulgarians live
abroad. Entry into the EU may stimulate emigration, though most existing
members have slapped on temporary labour-market restrictions. That is partly
because immigrants from Poland and other countries were more numerous than
expected.
Both countries' borders are leaky. Moldovans can work easily (if not always
legally) in Romania, as can Macedonians in Bulgaria. Although the two
governments try to restrict the issue of passports to ethnic kinsfolk in these
neighbours, they cannot stop them coming.
Romania has the advantage of size, demography and a newly confident elite
that wants to put the country on the map of Europe. Bulgaria has a stronger
industrial base. But given the political chaos that has taken hold in other
eastern European countries, most of them much richer and stronger than the two
newcomers, it is clear that the Balkan pair's road to EU prosperity and
stability will be harder. The only question is how much.
Copyright © 2007 The Economist Newspaper and The Economist Group
----------------------------
Vali
"Noble blood is an accident of fortune; noble actions are the chief mark of
greatness." (Carlo Goldoni)
"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know
peace." (Jimi Hendrix)
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