Very insightful. My blue-sky price increase notation was only meant as an extremely
general statement. You're right of, course, price spirals usually aren't
straight-lined. I believe the same holds true for inflation in general. My personal
inflation rate this past year was lower than a family buying a house, a car and lots
of family/baby stuff. The national inflation rate is another extremely general
statement and doesn't apply to all equally.
Good comments, RB!
Later,
Tim
----- Original Message -----
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] ; [EMAIL PROTECTED] ; [EMAIL PROTECTED] ;
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Cc: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Sunday, September 22, 2002 2:14 PM
Subject: Re: [S-Trains] York - REASONABLE PRICES?
In a message dated 9/22/02 8:13:56 AM, [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:
<< Don't expect any reasonable prices on Flyer things in the near future. In
fact, my observation is that Flyer prices are up about 15% over last year.
Why? 1). Most dealers are now forced to buy collections rather than trains
out of an attic or basement (they've mostly been cleaned out of those places
years ago); 2) More and more baby boomers want their toys back. I look for
train prices to continue the upward spiral. >>
Permit me to comment to this extent. Other than for the few accessories
redone by Lionel and MTH, I certainly haven't seen a decrease in the value of
any vintage New Haven Gilbert Flyer. Placing a percentage on the increase in
values is problematical because the categories do not move in unison. There
are certain segments that are pretty steady, "flat" if you will (e.g., more
common rolling stock). After a healthy rise, some of the diecast steam
engines appear to be taking bit of a breather, but other areas continue to ap
preciate. The big passenger stuff has definitely shaken off the effects of
the LTI reintroductions. There are other pieces that are moving up (e.g.,
nice samples of the rare unbroken tender step version of the 21130 <grin>).
Like all vintage toys, nice examples with their OBs will be more highly
valued. It has become pretty clear that Lionel will not be reproducing large
portions of the old Gilbert catalogs and what they may import will be
Chinese-built and not "desirable" beyond its immediate play value. The total
supply of vintage Gilbert is decreasing each year due to attrition (fire,
flood, being dropped on the floor, etc.). New entrants to the collecting of
original Gilbert show up a tables in modest numbers every train show and
venues like ebay make it easier to B-S-T toy trains. A subgroup of 0 gaugers
also collect a bit of Flyer S gauge trains because they are early examples of
scale tinplate ("scaleplate"). On top of all of this, almost all toy train
production has ceased in the USA and will make vintage domestic stuff more
desirable with the passage of time. The marketplace can vary, but short of an
Armageddon, I find it hard to see prices of vintage Gilbert dropping sharply
over any extended length of time.
By the way, some motel rooms always open up just before York permitting a few
folks some lucky hits. Motel room building in the York area is also starting
to finally catch up with demand. I wouldn't read too much into the isolated
reporting of lucky folk getting a room.
RB
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