Wong disuspen kabeh..brms jg dikandangin yak?
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone -----Original Message----- From: Jefry CHANG <jefry_ch...@yahoo.com> Sender: saham@yahoogroups.com Date: Thu, 10 Oct 2013 08:40:28 To: saham@yahoogroups.com<saham@yahoogroups.com> Reply-To: saham@yahoogroups.com Cc: Saham<saham@yahoogroups.com> Subject: Re: [saham] Prediksi Bang Ian Terlalu banyak news ga jelas emiten ini. Jgn terpancing...... Sent from my iPhone > On Oct 10, 2013, at 8:32 AM, hengky...@hotmail.com wrote: > > Prediksi Bang Ian Bumi 5000 , mungkin ini langkah awal nya > > BUMI is repaying the money it owes to CIC plus penalties with 42% stake in > BRMS , 19% stake in KPC cs, and US$150mn worth of new BUMI shares. The debt > resolution deal came in unexpected, as most investors think that nothing can > happen before the EGM of Bumi Plc, which schedule has not been made public. > I expect a sharp and sustained rally in BRMS, for the following reasons: > > 1. Reduction, or even removal, of Bakrie group discount in BRMS. On paper, > CIC will become second biggest shareholder with 42%, after BUMI’s 45%. But > based on KSEI reports, BUMI’s ownership in BRMS hasdeclined significantly. > Looking at the number of BRMS shares transacted on the way down (BRMS share > price went from 510 toas low as 100 not too long ago), I find it hard to > believe that its real free float is only 13%. If BUMI still has the claim to > all of its 45% shares then there must have been very serious shorting of BRMS > shares by the repo lenders. The magnitude of BRMS shorting interests could > easily be 20-30% of its outstanding shares,dwarfing that of Volkswagen! If > BUMI lost even a few percent of its 45% (highly probable), then CIC will be > the real majority owner of BRMS. So BRMS share price is destined to go up, be > it driven by major short covering, reduction of Bakrie group discount as CIC > brings-infinancial and operational control, or full removal of Bakrie > groupdiscount if CIC were to become the controlling shareholder. > > 2. Fundamental value of US$2.0bn against current US$610mn market cap, a > potential triple bagger. When BRMS went IPO in 1Q11, Nomura, Credit Suisse, > and JPMorgan put up a fundamental value range of between US$1.5bn and > US$2.5bn for BRMS. Such value range did not include new reserves findings in > Gorontalo and Elang, both of which are rumored to be jackpots (no one is > interested to formalize JORC reports at this juncture due to their > self-interests). A large chunk of the US2bn value came from BRMS 18% share in > PT. Newmont NT, estimated to worth around US$1.5bn > > 3. Do not let tender offer prospect and the price that CIC pays bogyou down. > When Tata Power bought a minority stake in KPC and Arutmin coal mines, BUMI > share price went from Rp1,000 to as high as Rp8,000on perception of better > corporate governance alone. Back then, the investors failed to realize that > Tata Power came in at the subsidiaries level, and that governance may remain > weak at the listed company level. This time, CIC is coming in at the listed > company level, which will make a whole world of difference to BRMS corporate > governance. The Bakrie group and CIC may set an arbitrary official price for > BRMS due to various complexities, but by no means it indicates the true value > of BRMS. A million tons of gold beneath the ground could be worthless in > hands of the Bakrie group if their funding window is shut, but it could be > worth the full value in the hands of the world largest sovereign wealth fund. > > Disclaimer On. > > > "HiDuP Cm SkLi JgN DiBuAt SuSaH" > > ------------------------------------ > > Kunjungi situs http://www.info-saham.com untuk informasi seputar saham. > > SEMUA POSTING DI MILIS INI TANGGUNG JAWAB PENGIRIM EMAIL DAN BUKAN ADMIN > MILIS. SEMUA POSTING DI MILIS INI BUKAN UNTUK MENGAJAK MEMBELI ATAU MENJUAL > EFEK. SETIAP KEPUTUSAN INVESTASI MENJADI TANGGUNG JAWAB PIHAK PEMILIK > INVESTASI ATAU PEMILIK MODAL. > > saham-unsubscr...@yahoogroups.com untuk berhenti dari milis saham > saham-subscr...@yahoogroups.com untuk bergabung ke milis saham > Yahoo! Groups Links > > >
