Bakrie emang canggih cara bayar utangnya. :D Dana Sekolah Saham
________________________________ From: "hengky...@hotmail.com" <hengky...@hotmail.com> To: Saham <saham@yahoogroups.com> Sent: Thursday, October 10, 2013 8:32 AM Subject: [saham] Prediksi Bang Ian Prediksi Bang Ian Bumi 5000 , mungkin ini langkah awal nya BUMI is repaying the money it owes to CIC plus penalties with 42% stake in BRMS , 19% stake in KPC cs, and US$150mn worth of new BUMI shares. The debt resolution deal came in unexpected, as most investors think that nothing can happen before the EGM of Bumi Plc, which schedule has not been made public. I expect a sharp and sustained rally in BRMS, for the following reasons: 1. Reduction, or even removal, of Bakrie group discount in BRMS. On paper, CIC will become second biggest shareholder with 42%, after BUMI’s 45%. But based on KSEI reports, BUMI’s ownership in BRMS hasdeclined significantly. Looking at the number of BRMS shares transacted on the way down (BRMS share price went from 510 toas low as 100 not too long ago), I find it hard to believe that its real free float is only 13%. If BUMI still has the claim to all of its 45% shares then there must have been very serious shorting of BRMS shares by the repo lenders. The magnitude of BRMS shorting interests could easily be 20-30% of its outstanding shares,dwarfing that of Volkswagen! If BUMI lost even a few percent of its 45% (highly probable), then CIC will be the real majority owner of BRMS. So BRMS share price is destined to go up, be it driven by major short covering, reduction of Bakrie group discount as CIC brings-infinancial and operational control, or full removal of Bakrie groupdiscount if CIC were to become the controlling shareholder. 2. Fundamental value of US$2.0bn against current US$610mn market cap, a potential triple bagger. When BRMS went IPO in 1Q11, Nomura, Credit Suisse, and JPMorgan put up a fundamental value range of between US$1.5bn and US$2.5bn for BRMS. Such value range did not include new reserves findings in Gorontalo and Elang, both of which are rumored to be jackpots (no one is interested to formalize JORC reports at this juncture due to their self-interests). A large chunk of the US2bn value came from BRMS 18% share in PT. Newmont NT, estimated to worth around US$1.5bn 3. Do not let tender offer prospect and the price that CIC pays bogyou down. When Tata Power bought a minority stake in KPC and Arutmin coal mines, BUMI share price went from Rp1,000 to as high as Rp8,000on perception of better corporate governance alone. Back then, the investors failed to realize that Tata Power came in at the subsidiaries level, and that governance may remain weak at the listed company level. This time, CIC is coming in at the listed company level, which will make a whole world of difference to BRMS corporate governance. The Bakrie group and CIC may set an arbitrary official price for BRMS due to various complexities, but by no means it indicates the true value of BRMS. A million tons of gold beneath the ground could be worthless in hands of the Bakrie group if their funding window is shut, but it could be worth the full value in the hands of the world largest sovereign wealth fund. Disclaimer On. "HiDuP Cm SkLi JgN DiBuAt SuSaH" ------------------------------------ Kunjungi situs http://www.info-saham.com untuk informasi seputar saham. SEMUA POSTING DI MILIS INI TANGGUNG JAWAB PENGIRIM EMAIL DAN BUKAN ADMIN MILIS. SEMUA POSTING DI MILIS INI BUKAN UNTUK MENGAJAK MEMBELI ATAU MENJUAL EFEK. SETIAP KEPUTUSAN INVESTASI MENJADI TANGGUNG JAWAB PIHAK PEMILIK INVESTASI ATAU PEMILIK MODAL. saham-unsubscr...@yahoogroups.com untuk berhenti dari milis saham saham-subscr...@yahoogroups.com untuk bergabung ke milis saham Yahoo! Groups Links http://info.yahoo.com/legal/us/yahoo/utos/terms/
