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Bernanke quiet on next Fed moves, stresses job crisis

Fri, Aug 26 10:31 AM EDT

By Mark Felsenthal and Ann Saphir

JACKSON HOLE, Wyoming (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on 
Friday stopped short of signaling further action to boost the U.S. recovery, 
but said it was critical for the economy's health to reduce unemployment.

Bernanke said the central bank had marked down its outlook for U.S. economic 
growth and made clear the policy focus was still on spurring a stronger 
recovery, but he did not provide any fresh details on steps the Fed could take.

"It is clear the recovery from the crisis has been much less robust than we had 
hoped," he said.

Bernanke's speech at a central banking conference appeared to disappoint some 
market participants who had hoped the Fed chairman would make a clear case for 
a further easing of monetary policy. The U.S. dollar strengthened and stocks 
added to losses on his comments.

"The growth fundamentals of the United States do not appear to have been 
permanently altered by the shocks of the past four years," Bernanke said. "The 
economic healing will take a while, and there may be setbacks along the way," 
he added. "However ... the healing process should not leave major scars."

While expressing long-term optimism, Bernanke made plain the central bank found 
recent developments troubling, and he said the Fed would expand its September 
policy meeting to two days from one to discuss its options.

However, Bernanke also stressed that most of the burden for ensuring a solid 
foundation for long-term growth lay at the feet of the White House and U.S. 
Congress.

"Financial stress has been and continues to be a significant drag on the 
recovery, both here and abroad," he said. "It is difficult to judge by how much 
these developments have affected economic activity thus far, but there seems 
little doubt that they have hurt household and business confidence and that 
they pose ongoing risks to growth."

Earlier this month, the Fed said it expected to hold overnight U.S. interest 
rates near zero for at least the next two years and it was examining other 
steps it could take to bolster growth.

Some investors have begun to hope the central bank, which has already bought 
$2.3 trillion in bonds, would launch a fresh round of asset purchases, although 
many analysts think more modest steps, such as shifting the Fed's securities 
holdings into longer maturities, are more likely.

Bernanke simply reiterated language from the Fed's latest policy statement that 
the central bank was examining its options and was prepared to act as needed.

"Monetary policy must be responsive to changes in the economy and, in 
particular, to the outlook for growth and inflation," he said. He repeated the 
Fed's view that easing commodity prices should bring inflation into line with 
the Fed's 2 percent or under goal.

RECESSION WATCH

A weak raft of economic data have led economists to say chances of a fresh U.S. 
recession could range as high as 50 percent.

The economy grew at a paltry 1 percent annual rate in the second quarter as 
consumer spending notched its smallest gain since the final three months of 
2009, the government said on Friday. It grew only 0.4 percent in the first 
quarter.

At the same time, Europe is strangled by a debt crisis that is undercutting 
growth prospects there.

As gloomy news on the U.S. economy mounted in recent weeks, stock markets 
plunged and speculation grew the Fed would crank up its crisis-fighting 
operation. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note hit a new low.

In an interview with CNBC ahead of Bernanke's remarks, Philadelphia Federal 
Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser said further bond purchases by the Fed 
would do the economy little good.

"I'm not sure it would be beneficial to the problems that we are facing," 
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser told CNBC.

Plosser is one of the central bank's leading inflation hawks, and he dissented 
earlier this month against the central bank's decision to inform markets that 
it expected to hold interest rates ultra-low for at least two years.

A BALANCE SHEET FIX

Fed officials have discussed buying more longer-term debt and selling 
short-term securities, an operation that could increase downward pressures on 
long-term interest rates without further bloating the central bank's balance 
sheet.

Beyond providing a psychological boost, lower long-term rates could encourage 
home and car purchases, and business investments.

"These are small moves," Wells Fargo economist John Silvia said ahead of 
Bernanke's remarks. "This is not the time to put up full sails."

Even some Fed policymakers admit changing the Fed's holdings to twist down the 
longer end of the interest rate curve might do little good.

"A twist operation would not have every much effect. It's been analyzed many 
times," St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard told Reuters on 
the conference sidelines.

(Writing by Mark Felsenthal and Tim Ahmann; additional reporting by Leah 
Schnurr; Editing by Neil Stempleman)


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