Nah kalo dari dari Kim Eng berikut analisisnya
silahkan dikompare...
Regards,
H4
"Plan Your Trade and Trade Your Plan"
H4
"Plan Your Trade and Trade Your Plan"
v Unilever Indonesia (UNVR.IJ)’s share price fell 11% yesterday as the company announced that it had signed three agreements
with Unilever NV (Netherlands) as follows:
v Trade Mark License Agreement (TMLA): UNVR.IJ will be required to pay 3% of the revenue it generates from products with global brands, to be applied gradually: 1% in 2013, 2% in 2014 and 3% in 2015. This agreement replaces the 2% royalty UNVR.IJ currently pays its parent and is valid for five years, with an automatic rollover of three years thereafter.
v Technology License Agreement (TLA): UNVR.IJ will be required to pay 2% of revenue it generates from products with global brands. This too will be applied gradually: 1% in 2013, 1.5% in 2014 and 2% in 2015, replacing the 2% royalty UNVR.IJ currently pays its parent. The agreement is valid for five years with automatic rollover of three years thereafter.
v Central Service Agreement (CSA): UNVR.IJ will be required to pay a maximum of 3% of revenue generated from products with global brands. This replaces the 1.5% it used to pay under its previous CSA, and will be effective 1 Jan 2013.
v The new agreements will gradually increase UNVR.IJ’s costs from the current 3.5% (2% royalty, 1.5% services) of revenue from global brands it currently pays, to a maximum of 8% of this revenue when the agreements are fully applied in 2015.
v We revise our forecasts for the stock. Ceteris paribus and assuming the company does not raise ASPs nor take any drastic measures to overcome the impact of the higher costs, the increase in its cost structure justifies a new TP of IDR23,400 (11% below our previous TP of IDR26,350) in our view, pegging the stock at 35x FY13F PER. Following the deep share price correction yesterday, the stock is a HOLD.
Analyst
Katarina Setiawan
[email protected]
v Trade Mark License Agreement (TMLA): UNVR.IJ will be required to pay 3% of the revenue it generates from products with global brands, to be applied gradually: 1% in 2013, 2% in 2014 and 3% in 2015. This agreement replaces the 2% royalty UNVR.IJ currently pays its parent and is valid for five years, with an automatic rollover of three years thereafter.
v Technology License Agreement (TLA): UNVR.IJ will be required to pay 2% of revenue it generates from products with global brands. This too will be applied gradually: 1% in 2013, 1.5% in 2014 and 2% in 2015, replacing the 2% royalty UNVR.IJ currently pays its parent. The agreement is valid for five years with automatic rollover of three years thereafter.
v Central Service Agreement (CSA): UNVR.IJ will be required to pay a maximum of 3% of revenue generated from products with global brands. This replaces the 1.5% it used to pay under its previous CSA, and will be effective 1 Jan 2013.
v The new agreements will gradually increase UNVR.IJ’s costs from the current 3.5% (2% royalty, 1.5% services) of revenue from global brands it currently pays, to a maximum of 8% of this revenue when the agreements are fully applied in 2015.
v We revise our forecasts for the stock. Ceteris paribus and assuming the company does not raise ASPs nor take any drastic measures to overcome the impact of the higher costs, the increase in its cost structure justifies a new TP of IDR23,400 (11% below our previous TP of IDR26,350) in our view, pegging the stock at 35x FY13F PER. Following the deep share price correction yesterday, the stock is a HOLD.
Analyst
Katarina Setiawan
[email protected]
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"This e-mail and its attachment(s) are confidential and intended only for the use of the individual to whom it is addressed and may contain information that is privileged. If you are not the intended recipient, you are strictly prohibited to take any action based upon them, which also includes dissemination, distribution, printing and copying of this e-mail and its contents. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by reply and delete this message from your system. You may from time to time be provided with investment and financial related information and reports, including but not limited to, research reports and market or securities specific analysis. Please note that the information is provided to you for information only. All of the information report and analysis made should be taken as having been prepared for the purpose of general circulation and without regard to any specific investment objective, financial situation or the needs of any particular person who may receive the information, report or analysis (including yourself). Any recommendation or advice that may be expressed in or inferred from such information, reports or analysis therefore does not take into account and may not be suitable for your investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs. Any views or opinions expressed are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (Maybank-IB) or any of its affiliates"
From: "[email protected]" <[email protected]>
To: Saham <[email protected]>
Sent: Thursday, December 13, 2012 1:45 PM
Subject: Re: Bls: [saham] Saham UNVR
Kalau trader, chart sdh bilang beli ya kita buy, pasang CL + TP + MM
Kalau investor ya perhitungkan PER, dll"HiDuP Cm SkLi JgN DiBuAt SuSaH"From: "wandelon" <[email protected]>Sender: [email protected]Date: Thu, 13 Dec 2012 06:42:50 +0000To: <[email protected]>ReplyTo: [email protected]Subject: Re: Bls: [saham] Saham UNVRAsal bersabar simpan aja sih untuk invest long, ngga masalah pak buy :-) .....
Rgds,Powered by Me®From: [email protected]Sender: [email protected]Date: Thu, 13 Dec 2012 06:39:44 +0000To: <[email protected]>ReplyTo: [email protected]Subject: Re: Bls: [saham] Saham UNVRDisaat semua sell semua..kesempatan beli murah untuk saham bluechip UNVR dimana2 masih pake pepsodent sunslik dllSent from BlackBerry® on 3From: "mega liefwarnadya" <[email protected]>Sender: [email protected]Date: Thu, 13 Dec 2012 06:28:45 +0000To: <[email protected]>ReplyTo: [email protected]Subject: Re: Bls: [saham] Saham UNVRMaksudnya ini bakalan 19rb? Sebagai TP?Powered by Telkomsel BlackBerry®From: H4 <[email protected]>Sender: [email protected]Date: Wed, 12 Dec 2012 22:24:08 -0800 (PST)ReplyTo: [email protected]Subject: Re: Bls: [saham] Saham UNVRBerikut analis dari MansekRegards,
H4
"Plan Your Trade and Trade Your Plan"Squeeze out the juiceUnilever Indonesia made a shocking announcement yesterday, raising the royalty charges it pays its parent firm from 3.5% of revenue currently to a maximum of 8%. This is significantly higher than the 3% median charged by other foreign subsidiaries listed in Indonesia, and we cut our 2013-15F EPS forecasts by 6.3%, 13.0% and 19.5% respectively. We downgrade to SELL with reduced T/P of Rp19,000/share, implying 28x 2013F PERNew royalty charges higher than the market. In our discussion with the company, it mentioned the change in royalty structure is to strengten UNVR’s position as the exclusive Indonesian arm of its parent company. But we are doubtful. We may see this as another way to maximize return of its Indonesia investment. The 8% new royalty charges is significantly higher than the 3% median charged by other foreign subsidiaries listed in Indonesia. Market perception may change and questioning UNVR legit premium of reputation. Interestingly, Unilever Global CEO made comment on the other occasion on its bearish european business outlook.A value dragger transaction. As we put the revision down in our calculation, we cut UNVR EPS for 13F, 14F and 15F by 6.3%, 13.0% and 19.5%, respectively. It suggests reduced dividend potential which has been the main attraction for the company. This is even assuming the same payout ratio, the EPS will be drastically reduced, so will the DPS.Uprising competition set backs price power. We are not optimistic on UNVR pricing power that will likely limit its ability to fully pass the higher charge to customers. Intensifying market competition backs our view, especially noting recent aggressive moves by major competitors such as P&G and Wings. P&G will have a new factory next year, while Wings has just made a big comeback with a new ad blast for its new So Klin detergent, the close competitor of UNVR’s main product Rinso..SELL at TP Rp19,000/sh. With added concern above, higher equity risk is applied in UNVR and given single digit EPS growth over the next three years, a valuation de-rating is likely. We capped our PE 2013 at 28x to derive our new TP for UNVR of Rp19,000/share. SELL.Octavius Oky PrakarsaPlaza Mandiri 28th floorPhone: +62 21 526 3445Fax: +62 21 527 5711
From: "[email protected]" <[email protected]>
To: "[email protected]" <[email protected]>
Sent: Thursday, December 13, 2012 1:20 PM
Subject: Re: Bls: [saham] Saham UNVR
Hwahhh saya sudah ambil unvr pada penurunan kemarin, ternyata skrng turun lg. :-( semoga lekas techreborn-nya.From: evita lusiani <[email protected]>Sender: [email protected]Date: Thu, 13 Dec 2012 13:00:00 +0800 (SGT)To: <[email protected]>ReplyTo: [email protected]Subject: Bls: [saham] Saham UNVR
UNVR stock fell in the morning after Unilever Indonesia announced change in rate of royalty to be paid to Unilever NV (parent company). The changes will be
done in stages from current royalty rate of ~3.5% sales to
estimated 5% sales in 2013, 6.5% sales in 2014, and 5% sales +
actual recovery cost up to 3% sales in 2015
--- Pada Kam, 13/12/12, Rio Suki <[email protected]> menulis:
Dari: Rio Suki <[email protected]>
Judul: Bls: [saham] Saham UNVR
Kepada: [email protected]
Tanggal: Kamis, 13 Desember, 2012, 6:08 AM
Salam
From: [email protected] <[email protected]>;
To: [email protected] <[email protected]>;
Subject: [saham] Saham UNVR
Sent: Wed, Dec 12, 2012 4:22:12 PM
