Re: [AFMUG] SpaceX Says Its 60 Starlink Satellites Are All Phoning Home (and Fading Out) | Space

[Nate Burke]

I can only hear Ford Prefect saying that now.



On 6/2/2019 5:57 PM, Ken Hohhof wrote:


It’s amazing how many companies that people assume are profitable are 
anything but.  At least for now.  I guess we said this about Amazon once.


But Uber lost $1 billion on $3 billion in revenue in the most recent 
quarter.  They already have the app.  They don’t own the cars.  The 
drivers are not employees.  How are they losing so much money, unless 
they are literally losing money on every sale and intending to make it 
up on volume?


*From:*AF  *On Behalf Of *Bill Prince
*Sent:* Sunday, June 2, 2019 5:15 PM
*To:* af@af.afmug.com
*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] SpaceX Says Its 60 Starlink Satellites Are All 
Phoning Home (and Fading Out) | Space


There are whole bunches of risk factors.

Assuming the satellite-mesh system works (and that is still an if; 
note that this first batch does not include the sat-sat laser link 
capability), I have not seen a real estimate of the system capacity. I 
would presume there would be separate earth stations for each orbital 
plane. There could even conceivably be multiple earth stations for 
each orbital plane, which would make the system capacity flexible.


IDK if they're making money or not, but they are serving body blows to 
the competition.


There was open speculation that the Falcon heavy was going into a 
limited demand situation, but now that it seems to be working (so 
far), that market opportunity may be shifting as well.


bp


On 6/2/2019 12:52 PM, Ken Hohhof wrote:

You’d think that SpaceX is highly profitable and is using those
profits to expand into the satellite Internet business.  But
actually there is debate whether SpaceX is profitable without
accounting tricks, and even if it is profitable, the margins are
very thin. Reportedly the geostationary launch business is
softening, and SpaceX is actually looking to Starlink for
profits.  No doubt it helps if you can launch your own satellites,
maybe even having them ride along while you get paid to launch
stuff for paying customers.  But this sounds like a pretty risky
venture, paid for with borrowed money.  If it wasn’t risky, it
wouldn’t be Elon, right?

*From:* AF 
 *On Behalf Of *Mike Hammett
*Sent:* Sunday, June 2, 2019 12:04 PM
*To:* AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group 

*Subject:* Re: [AFMUG] SpaceX Says Its 60 Starlink Satellites Are
All Phoning Home (and Fading Out) | Space

I would suspect they are going to have hundreds of earth stations
as opposed to one or two earth stations that legacy platforms
have. Up to the bird, maybe across one or two birds, and back down
to the fiber-fed earth stations. I've seen the numbers, but I
forgot the numbers. It's real bandwidth at each one.



-
Mike Hammett
Intelligent Computing Solutions 


Midwest Internet Exchange 


The Brothers WISP 







*From: *"Tim Withrow via AF" mailto:af@af.afmug.com>>
*To: *af@af.afmug.com 
*Cc: *"Tim Withrow" mailto:timwith...@aol.com>>
*Sent: *Saturday, June 1, 2019 4:43:01 PM
*Subject: *Re: [AFMUG] SpaceX Says Its 60 Starlink Satellites Are
All Phoning Home (and Fading Out) | Space

What kind of bandwidth  capacity could each satellite have at any
given point?
What is the usable bandwidth of their system?  Who makes a radio
that big to carry/transmit such capacity or is it an
aggregate of small radio's?



On Saturday, June 1, 2019 Bill Prince mailto:af@af.afmug.com>> wrote:

Naturally, we're all thinking about what effect this will have in
rural America, but I am also wondering if this would have some
effect on China's "great firewall"?

bp



  


On 6/1/2019 1:47 PM, Ken Hohhof wrote:

I think one factor advocacy groups and govt critters need to keep
in mind is that instead of robust competition, what could occur is
“disruptive” pricing, having the effect of discouraging or
bankrupting the competition. And now some new entrant is the only
game in town.  And if it turns out to be unreliable, or not to 
have enough capacity,  or their speeds are actually best effort,

or their satellites 

Re: [AFMUG] SpaceX Says Its 60 Starlink Satellites Are All Phoning Home (and Fading Out) | Space

[Ken Hohhof]

It’s amazing how many companies that people assume are profitable are anything 
but.  At least for now.  I guess we said this about Amazon once.

 

But Uber lost $1 billion on $3 billion in revenue in the most recent quarter.  
They already have the app.  They don’t own the cars.  The drivers are not 
employees.  How are they losing so much money, unless they are literally losing 
money on every sale and intending to make it up on volume?

 

 

From: AF  On Behalf Of Bill Prince
Sent: Sunday, June 2, 2019 5:15 PM
To: af@af.afmug.com
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] SpaceX Says Its 60 Starlink Satellites Are All Phoning 
Home (and Fading Out) | Space

 

There are whole bunches of risk factors. 

Assuming the satellite-mesh system works (and that is still an if; note that 
this first batch does not include the sat-sat laser link capability), I have 
not seen a real estimate of the system capacity. I would presume there would be 
separate earth stations for each orbital plane. There could even conceivably be 
multiple earth stations for each orbital plane, which would make the system 
capacity flexible.

IDK if they're making money or not, but they are serving body blows to the 
competition.

There was open speculation that the Falcon heavy was going into a limited 
demand situation, but now that it seems to be working (so far), that market 
opportunity may be shifting as well.

 

bp

 

On 6/2/2019 12:52 PM, Ken Hohhof wrote:

You’d think that SpaceX is highly profitable and is using those profits to 
expand into the satellite Internet business.  But actually there is debate 
whether SpaceX is profitable without accounting tricks, and even if it is 
profitable, the margins are very thin.  Reportedly the geostationary launch 
business is softening, and SpaceX is actually looking to Starlink for profits.  
No doubt it helps if you can launch your own satellites, maybe even having them 
ride along while you get paid to launch stuff for paying customers.  But this 
sounds like a pretty risky venture, paid for with borrowed money.  If it wasn’t 
risky, it wouldn’t be Elon, right?

 

 

From: AF    On Behalf 
Of Mike Hammett
Sent: Sunday, June 2, 2019 12:04 PM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group   
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] SpaceX Says Its 60 Starlink Satellites Are All Phoning 
Home (and Fading Out) | Space

 

I would suspect they are going to have hundreds of earth stations as opposed to 
one or two earth stations that legacy platforms have. Up to the bird, maybe 
across one or two birds, and back down to the fiber-fed earth stations. I've 
seen the numbers, but I forgot the numbers. It's real bandwidth at each one.



-
Mike Hammett
  Intelligent Computing Solutions
   
  
  
 
  Midwest Internet Exchange
   
  
 
  The Brothers WISP
   
 





  _  


From: "Tim Withrow via AF" mailto:af@af.afmug.com> >
To: af@af.afmug.com  
Cc: "Tim Withrow" mailto:timwith...@aol.com> >
Sent: Saturday, June 1, 2019 4:43:01 PM
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] SpaceX Says Its 60 Starlink Satellites Are All Phoning 
Home (and Fading Out) | Space

What kind of bandwidth  capacity could each satellite have  at any given point? 
What is the usable bandwidth of their system?  Who makes a radio that big to 
carry/transmit such  capacity or is it an 
aggregate of small radio's?

 


  _  


On Saturday, June 1, 2019 Bill Prince mailto:af@af.afmug.com> 
> wrote:

Naturally, we're all thinking about what effect this will have in rural 
America, but I am also wondering if this would have some effect on China's 
"great firewall"?

 

bp

 

On 6/1/2019 1:47 PM, Ken Hohhof wrote:

I think one factor advocacy groups and govt critters need to keep in mind is 
that instead of robust competition, what could occur is “disruptive” pricing, 
having the effect of discouraging or bankrupting the competition.  And now some 
new entrant is the only game in town.  And if it turns out to be unreliable, or 
not to  have enough capacity,  or their speeds are actually best effort, or 
their satellites start dropping out of the sky, or whatever, people can’t 
switch back to their old provider.  Like being dissatisfied with online stores 
and assuming you can always switch back to the old brick and mortar store, from 
Uber and Lyft back to taxis and limos.  Sorry, they don’t exist anymore.

 

This is unlikely to happen in big cities, I doubt Comcast will go bankrupt 
because of Starlink.  But to 

Re: [AFMUG] SpaceX Says Its 60 Starlink Satellites Are All Phoning Home (and Fading Out) | Space

[Bill Prince]

  
  
There are whole bunches of risk factors. 

Assuming the satellite-mesh system works (and that is still an
  if; note that this first batch does not include the sat-sat laser
  link capability), I have not seen a real estimate of the system
  capacity. I would presume there would be separate earth stations
  for each orbital plane. There could even conceivably be multiple
  earth stations for each orbital plane, which would make the system
  capacity flexible.
IDK if they're making money or not, but they are serving body
  blows to the competition.
There was open speculation that the Falcon heavy was going into a
  limited demand situation, but now that it seems to be working (so
  far), that market opportunity may be shifting as well.


bp



On 6/2/2019 12:52 PM, Ken Hohhof wrote:


  
  
  
  
  
You’d think that SpaceX is highly
  profitable and is using those profits to expand into the
  satellite Internet business.  But actually there is debate
  whether SpaceX is profitable without accounting tricks, and
  even if it is profitable, the margins are very thin. 
  Reportedly the geostationary launch business is softening, and
  SpaceX is actually looking to Starlink for profits.  No doubt
  it helps if you can launch your own satellites, maybe even
  having them ride along while you get paid to launch stuff for
  paying customers.  But this sounds like a pretty risky
  venture, paid for with borrowed money.  If it wasn’t risky, it
  wouldn’t be Elon, right?
 
 

  
From: AF
   On Behalf Of Mike
  Hammett
  Sent: Sunday, June 2, 2019 12:04 PM
  To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
  
  Subject: Re: [AFMUG] SpaceX Says Its 60 Starlink
  Satellites Are All Phoning Home (and Fading Out) | Space
  

 

  I
  would suspect they are going to have hundreds of earth
  stations as opposed to one or two earth stations that
  legacy platforms have. Up to the bird, maybe across one or
  two birds, and back down to the fiber-fed earth stations.
  I've seen the numbers, but I forgot the numbers. It's real
  bandwidth at each one.
  


-
Mike Hammett
  Intelligent Computing Solutions
  
  Midwest Internet Exchange
  
  The Brothers WISP
  


  
  
  
  
  
From:
"Tim
Withrow via AF" 
To: af@af.afmug.com
Cc: "Tim Withrow" 
Sent: Saturday, June 1, 2019 4:43:01 PM
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] SpaceX Says Its 60 Starlink
Satellites Are All Phoning Home (and Fading Out) | Space
What
kind of bandwidth  capacity could each satellite have 
at any given point? 
What is the usable bandwidth of their system?  Who makes
a radio that big to carry/transmit such  capacity or is
it an 
aggregate of small radio's?
 


On
Saturday, June 1, 2019 Bill Prince 
wrote:

  
Naturally,
we're all thinking about what effect this will have
in rural America, but I am also wondering if this
would have some effect on China's "great firewall"?
 
bp

 

  
On
6/1/2019 1:47 PM, Ken Hohhof wrote:
  

  
  

  
I
think one factor advocacy groups and govt
critters need to keep in mind is that instead of
robust competition, what could occur is
“disruptive” pricing, having the effect of
discouraging or bankrupting the competition. 
And now some new entrant is the only game in
town.  And if it turns out to be unreliable, or
not to  have enough capacity,  or their speeds
are actually best effort, or their satellites
start dropping out of the sky, or whatever,
  

Re: [AFMUG] SpaceX Says Its 60 Starlink Satellites Are All Phoning Home (and Fading Out) | Space

[Ken Hohhof]

You’d think that SpaceX is highly profitable and is using those profits to 
expand into the satellite Internet business.  But actually there is debate 
whether SpaceX is profitable without accounting tricks, and even if it is 
profitable, the margins are very thin.  Reportedly the geostationary launch 
business is softening, and SpaceX is actually looking to Starlink for profits.  
No doubt it helps if you can launch your own satellites, maybe even having them 
ride along while you get paid to launch stuff for paying customers.  But this 
sounds like a pretty risky venture, paid for with borrowed money.  If it wasn’t 
risky, it wouldn’t be Elon, right?

 

 

From: AF  On Behalf Of Mike Hammett
Sent: Sunday, June 2, 2019 12:04 PM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] SpaceX Says Its 60 Starlink Satellites Are All Phoning 
Home (and Fading Out) | Space

 

I would suspect they are going to have hundreds of earth stations as opposed to 
one or two earth stations that legacy platforms have. Up to the bird, maybe 
across one or two birds, and back down to the fiber-fed earth stations. I've 
seen the numbers, but I forgot the numbers. It's real bandwidth at each one.



-
Mike Hammett
  Intelligent Computing Solutions
   
  
  
 
  Midwest Internet Exchange
   
  
 
  The Brothers WISP
   
 




  _  

From: "Tim Withrow via AF" mailto:af@af.afmug.com> >
To: af@af.afmug.com  
Cc: "Tim Withrow" mailto:timwith...@aol.com> >
Sent: Saturday, June 1, 2019 4:43:01 PM
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] SpaceX Says Its 60 Starlink Satellites Are All Phoning 
Home (and Fading Out) | Space

What kind of bandwidth  capacity could each satellite have  at any given point? 
What is the usable bandwidth of their system?  Who makes a radio that big to 
carry/transmit such  capacity or is it an 
aggregate of small radio's?

 

  _  

On Saturday, June 1, 2019 Bill Prince mailto:af@af.afmug.com> 
> wrote:

Naturally, we're all thinking about what effect this will have in rural 
America, but I am also wondering if this would have some effect on China's 
"great firewall"?

 

bp

 

On 6/1/2019 1:47 PM, Ken Hohhof wrote:

I think one factor advocacy groups and govt critters need to keep in mind is 
that instead of robust competition, what could occur is “disruptive” pricing, 
having the effect of discouraging or bankrupting the competition.  And now some 
new entrant is the only game in town.  And if it turns out to be unreliable, or 
not to  have enough capacity,  or their speeds are actually best effort, or 
their satellites start dropping out of the sky, or whatever, people can’t 
switch back to their old provider.  Like being dissatisfied with online stores 
and assuming you can always switch back to the old brick and mortar store, from 
Uber and Lyft back to taxis and limos.  Sorry, they don’t exist anymore.

 

This is unlikely to happen in big cities, I doubt Comcast will go bankrupt 
because of Starlink.  But to just assume there will be lots of choices out in 
the middle of nowhere driving the price down without any of them turning off 
the lights, seems a little naïve.

 

And to assume big megacorps like SpaceX, Amazon, Googe,  Facebook, etc. would 
never price below cost to be “disruptive” also seems naïve.

 

 

From: AF    On Behalf 
Of Bill Prince
Sent: Saturday, June 1, 2019 3:20 PM
To: af@af.afmug.com  
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] SpaceX Says Its 60 Starlink Satellites Are All Phoning 
Home (and Fading Out) | Space

 

Sure. But after the clouds, geostationary still needs to go another 23,000 
miles. LEO only has to go a few hundred.

 

bp

  

On 6/1/2019 10:47 AM, Mathew Howard wrote:

Clouds are generally a lot lower than a couple hundred miles... 

 

On Sat, Jun 1, 2019, 10:58 AM Bill Prince mailto:part15...@gmail.com> > wrote:

Maybe at geostationary distances, but these are only a few hundred miles up.

bp


On 6/1/2019 8:56 AM, Matt Hoppes wrote:
> Don't those bands have significant attenuation issues with like... 
> clouds?
>
> On 6/1/19 10:55 AM, Bill Prince wrote:
>> According to Wikipedia, they will be on Ku, Ka, and V bands.
>>
>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)
>>
>> bp
>> 
>>
>> On 6/1/2019 7:46 AM, Jaime Solorza wrote:
>>> Wonder what frequencies they will use?
>>>
>>> https://www.space.com/spacex-starlink-satellites-phone-home-dimming.html 
>>>
>>>
>>

-- 
AF mailing list

Re: [AFMUG] SpaceX Says Its 60 Starlink Satellites Are All Phoning Home (and Fading Out) | Space

[Mike Hammett]

I would suspect they are going to have hundreds of earth stations as opposed to 
one or two earth stations that legacy platforms have. Up to the bird, maybe 
across one or two birds, and back down to the fiber-fed earth stations. I've 
seen the numbers, but I forgot the numbers. It's real bandwidth at each one. 




- 
Mike Hammett 
Intelligent Computing Solutions 

Midwest Internet Exchange 

The Brothers WISP 




- Original Message -

From: "Tim Withrow via AF"  
To: af@af.afmug.com 
Cc: "Tim Withrow"  
Sent: Saturday, June 1, 2019 4:43:01 PM 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] SpaceX Says Its 60 Starlink Satellites Are All Phoning 
Home (and Fading Out) | Space 


What kind of bandwidth capacity could each satellite have at any given point? 
What is the usable bandwidth of their system? Who makes a radio that big to 
carry/transmit such capacity or is it an 
aggregate of small radio's? 



On Saturday, June 1, 2019 Bill Prince < af@af.afmug.com > wrote: 




Naturally, we're all thinking about what effect this will have in rural 
America, but I am also wondering if this would have some effect on China's 
"great firewall"? 

bp
 

On 6/1/2019 1:47 PM, Ken Hohhof wrote: 








I think one factor advocacy groups and govt critters need to keep in mind is 
that instead of robust competition, what could occur is “disruptive” pricing, 
having the effect of discouraging or bankrupting the competition. And now some 
new entrant is the only game in town. And if it turns out to be unreliable, or 
not to have enough capacity, or their speeds are actually best effort, or their 
satellites start dropping out of the sky, or whatever, people can’t switch back 
to their old provider. Like being dissatisfied with online stores and assuming 
you can always switch back to the old brick and mortar store, from Uber and 
Lyft back to taxis and limos. Sorry, they don’t exist anymore. 

This is unlikely to happen in big cities, I doubt Comcast will go bankrupt 
because of Starlink. But to just assume there will be lots of choices out in 
the middle of nowhere driving the price down without any of them turning off 
the lights, seems a little naïve. 

And to assume big megacorps like SpaceX, Amazon, Googe, Facebook, etc. would 
never price below cost to be “disruptive” also seems naïve. 




From: AF  On Behalf Of Bill Prince 
Sent: Saturday, June 1, 2019 3:20 PM 
To: af@af.afmug.com 
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] SpaceX Says Its 60 Starlink Satellites Are All Phoning 
Home (and Fading Out) | Space 

Sure. But after the clouds, geostationary still needs to go another 23,000 
miles. LEO only has to go a few hundred. 
bp  

On 6/1/2019 10:47 AM, Mathew Howard wrote: 



Clouds are generally a lot lower than a couple hundred miles... 



On Sat, Jun 1, 2019, 10:58 AM Bill Prince < part15...@gmail.com > wrote: 


Maybe at geostationary distances, but these are only a few hundred miles up. 

bp 
 

On 6/1/2019 8:56 AM, Matt Hoppes wrote: 
> Don't those bands have significant attenuation issues with like... 
> clouds? 
> 
> On 6/1/19 10:55 AM, Bill Prince wrote: 
>> According to Wikipedia, they will be on Ku, Ka, and V bands. 
>> 
>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation) 
>> 
>> bp 
>>  
>> 
>> On 6/1/2019 7:46 AM, Jaime Solorza wrote: 
>>> Wonder what frequencies they will use? 
>>> 
>>> https://www.space.com/spacex-starlink-satellites-phone-home-dimming.html 
>>> 
>>> 
>> 

-- 
AF mailing list 
AF@af.afmug.com 
http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com 








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Re: [AFMUG] OT Heavyweight Title

[chuck]

https://www.foxnews.com/sports/andy-ruiz-jr-anthony-joshua-heavyweight-titles

-Original Message- 
From: Jay Weekley

Sent: Sunday, June 2, 2019 10:30 AM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT Heavyweight Title

Boxing?

Chuck McCown wrote:
Like I tell my sons, just because I may carry a few extra pounds does not 
mean I cannot knock them down.
That was a fun victory last night.  I loved the look on his face when he 
got knocked down in the third.  It was like “ok now I am pissed and I am 
going to hammer you”.





--
*Jay Weekley*
*Cyber Broadband
*

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Re: [AFMUG] OT Heavyweight Title

[Jay Weekley]

Boxing?

Chuck McCown wrote:
Like I tell my sons, just because I may carry a few extra pounds does 
not mean I cannot knock them down.
That was a fun victory last night.  I loved the look on his face when 
he got knocked down in the third.  It was like “ok now I am pissed and 
I am going to hammer you”.





--
*Jay Weekley*
*Cyber Broadband
*

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AF@af.afmug.com
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[AFMUG] OT Heavyweight Title

[Chuck McCown]

Like I tell my sons, just because I may carry a few extra pounds does not mean 
I cannot knock them down.  

That was a fun victory last night.  I loved the look on his face when he got 
knocked down in the third.  It was like “ok now I am pissed and I am going to 
hammer you”.  -- 
AF mailing list
AF@af.afmug.com
http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com