Re: [Keuangan] The global slump of 2008-09 has begun as poison spreads
At 06:48 PM 5/14/2008, you wrote: e Bush rescue package - $800 in rebate cheques per household === ini jelas2 ngarang.. rebate checknya $600 per orang.. untuk yang berpenghasilan kurang dari $75K.. Rasanya penjelasan anda juga tidak terlalu tepat (ada faktor pembeda antara household (seperti yang tertulis) dan orang (seperti yang anda sebut)) - karena masih ada tambahan rebate checks untuk setiap anak dibawah usia 17 dalam keluarga wah bang poltak mungkin anda perlu baca lebih lanjut tentang rebate check ini.. mungkin angka yang lebih bagus adalah $1800, 600 untuk bapaknya 600 untuk ibunya, dan 300 untuk anaknya.. Bung Glenn, - Tidak semua keluarga (household) punya orang tua lengkap. Ada single parent family. - Tidak semua keluarga (household) punya anak. Saya hanya hendak tunjukkan adalah bahwa anda sudah keliru ketika menyamakan begitu saja antara household (yang ditulis $800) dan per ORANG yang anda sebut $ 600. Anda mengatakan orang lain ngarang -- padahal anda tidak teliti membaca antara household dan person (orang). Itu saja.
Re: [Keuangan] The global slump of 2008-09 has begun as poison spreads
e Bush rescue package - $800 in rebate cheques per household === ini jelas2 ngarang.. rebate checknya $600 per orang.. untuk yang berpenghasilan kurang dari $75K.. Rasanya penjelasan anda juga tidak terlalu tepat (ada faktor pembeda antara household (seperti yang tertulis) dan orang (seperti yang anda sebut)) - karena masih ada tambahan rebate checks untuk setiap anak dibawah usia 17 dalam keluarga wah bang poltak mungkin anda perlu baca lebih lanjut tentang rebate check ini.. mungkin angka yang lebih bagus adalah $1800, 600 untuk bapaknya 600 untuk ibunya, dan 300 untuk anaknya.. kalau anda lihat average household income di america kira2 $48k di tahun 2006, mungkin lebih rendah sekarang. kalau kita lihat lebih lanjut, ternyata sekitar 70% household di america incomenya lebih rendah dari $75k.. jadi 70% bakal dapet kira2 lebih dari $1200 (mungkin banyak yang gak punya anak).. tapi jelas jumlahnya lebih dari 800.. jadi seperti saya bilang sebelumnya.. mendingan anda baca financial times atau economist.. daripada dengerin mas Ambrose yang nulis artikel di atas. soal cash balance dari SP500 mungkin lebih baik saya pas kerja nanti liat database di kantor dan analisa lebih lanjut supaya kita gak ngomong asal2an.. kalo soal debt Debt as a percentage of net worth for non-financial companies outside of farming was 61.3 in the fourth quarter of last year, compared with 68 at the start of the 2001 recession and 93.6 in the 1990- 91 contraction, Fed figures show. kalo anda mau saya bisa lihat lagi data2 ini supaya, seperti yang saya bilang, kita gak ngomong asal2an. Seluruh perusahaan di SP 500 menurut link yang anda referkan - punya $615 Billion in cash TAPI kelihatan sekali jomplangnya. Gabungan Exxon Mobil ($34.5 Billion), Pfizer Inc ($25.5 Billion) dan Cisco ($22.7 Billion) sudah setara dengan $82.7 Billion atau 13% dari seluruh cash SP500. Lha bagaimana dengan 497 perusahaan lainnya? Bagaimana juga dengan posisi liabilities (baik jangka panjang maupun pendek)...? Anda bilang artikel saya mengatakan seluruh perusahaan di SP500 punya $625 B in cash, tapi jelas2 artikelnya bilang industrial corporations lihat di bawah ini: As a result, industrial corporations in the Standard Poor's 500 have amassed $615.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents Berarti keadaan saat ini sangat ekstreme antara yang kelebihan duit dan yang kekurangan duit. Apalagi kalau kita membandingkan antara posisi cash terhadap asset secara historis. anda yakin ini yang terjadi saat ini? apakah benar cash as a percentage dari BV sekarang lebih rendah dari pada historical average? 2008/5/14 Poltak Hotradero [EMAIL PROTECTED]: At 10:23 AM 5/14/2008, you wrote: Diane Vazza, SP's credit chief, says defaults are rising at almost twice the rate of past downturns. Companies are heading into this recession with a much more toxic mix. Their margin for error is razor-thin, she said. Two-thirds have a speculative rating, compared to 50pc before the dotcom bust, and 40pc in the early 1990s. The culprit is debt. They ramped it up in the last 18 months of the credit boom. A lot of deals were funded that should not have been funded, she said. Ini orang ngarang apa nyolong motong quote orang? setau saya companies di sini malah flush with cash. coba anda baca artikel ini http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109sid=aUv3WCFs__qwrefer=homehttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109sid=aUv3WCFs__qwrefer=home Mungkin perlu diteliti dulu perusahaan mana yang flushed with cash - dan mana yang nggak. Seluruh perusahaan di SP 500 menurut link yang anda referkan - punya $615 Billion in cash TAPI kelihatan sekali jomplangnya. Gabungan Exxon Mobil ($34.5 Billion), Pfizer Inc ($25.5 Billion) dan Cisco ($22.7 Billion) sudah setara dengan $82.7 Billion atau 13% dari seluruh cash SP500. Lha bagaimana dengan 497 perusahaan lainnya? Bagaimana juga dengan posisi liabilities (baik jangka panjang maupun pendek)...? Berarti keadaan saat ini sangat ekstreme antara yang kelebihan duit dan yang kekurangan duit. Apalagi kalau kita membandingkan antara posisi cash terhadap asset secara historis. e Bush rescue package - $800 in rebate cheques per household === ini jelas2 ngarang.. rebate checknya $600 per orang.. untuk yang berpenghasilan kurang dari $75K.. Rasanya penjelasan anda juga tidak terlalu tepat (ada faktor pembeda antara household (seperti yang tertulis) dan orang (seperti yang anda sebut)) - karena masih ada tambahan rebate checks untuk setiap anak dibawah usia 17 dalam keluarga.
[Keuangan] The global slump of 2008-09 has begun as poison spreads
The global slump of 2008-09 has begun as poison spreads By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor Last Updated: 12:59amBST 13/05/2008http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/05/12/ccambrose112.xml The avalanche of bankruptcies has begun. Six UScompanies of substance have defaulted on bonds over the past fortnight, against 17 for the whole of last year. As a “non-believer” in the instant rebound story, I am not easily shocked by gloomy reports. But the latest note by Standard Poor’s - The Bust After The Boom - gave me a fright. The sick list is varied, though most for now are victims of the housing crash: Linens ‘n Things, ($650m), Kimball Hill ($703m), Home Interiors ($310m), French Lick Resorts ($142m), Recycled Paper Greetings ($187m), and Tropicana Entertainment ($2.49bn). As the Fed’s latest loan survey makes clear, lenders have dropped the guillotine. With the usual delay, the poison is spreading from banks to the real world. Diane Vazza, SP’s credit chief, says defaults are rising at almost twice the rate of past downturns. “Companies are heading into this recession with a much more toxic mix. Their margin for error is razor-thin,” she said. Two-thirds have a “speculative” rating, compared to 50pc before the dotcom bust, and 40pc in the early 1990s. The culprit is debt. “They ramped it up in the last 18 months of the credit boom. A lot of deals were funded that should not have been funded,” she said. Some 174 UScompanies are trading at “distress levels”. Spreads on their bonds have rocketed above 1,000 basis points. This does not cover the carnage among smaller firms outside the rating universe. The Californiacity of Vallejo(117,000 inhabitants) has just made history by opting for Chapter 9 bankruptcy, the result of tax erosion from a 26pc fall in local house prices. Half Moon Bay may be next. “This is the tip of the iceberg: everybody is going to line up for Chapter 9 in California,” said John Moorlach, OrangeCountyboard chief. USconsumers are juggling plastic to put off their day of reckoning. The Fed survey said credit card debt had jumped 6.7pc in the first quarter to $957bn, or $6,000 per working American, despite usury rates near 20pc. “My guess is that many Americans continue to run up massive credit card debt because they have little intention of paying it off,” said Peter Schiff at Euro Pacific Capital. Quite. Thankfully, the Fed’s monetary blitz has averted a depression. Emergency lending under the “unusual and exigent circumstances” clause of the Fed Act - the nuclear Article 13 (3), unused since the 1930s - has put a floor under the banking system. There will be no “reset Armaggedon” as rates vault on honey-trap mortgages. Drastic Fed cuts - to 2pc from 5.25pc in September - have conjured away that disaster, at least. One dreads to think what would have happened if Fed liquidationists (Plosser, Hoenig, Fisher) had prevailed, as they did in 1930 - and still do in Euroland, where Germany’s Axel Weber holds sway, and nobody of sense dares lead a mutiny. Despite the rescue, UShouse prices are likely to fall 25pc from peak to trough (Lehman Brothers, Goldman Sachs). We are barely half done, yet 10m-12m households are in negative equity already. The bears at Société Générale are going into Siberian hibernation, issuing an “Ice Age” alert. They have slashed exposure to global equities to a minimum 30pc for the first time ever. Their weighting of super-safe “AAA” government bonds has been raised to a maximum 50pc. This is a bet on gruelling “Japanese” deflation. The bank expects equities to fall by 50pc to 75pc. “Nowhere and nothing will be immune. We are on the cusp of an equity meltdown that will slash and shred portfolios,” said Albert Edward, SG’s global strategist. “We see a global recession unfolding. Liquidity will drain away and crush the twin emerging market and commodity bubbles. The recent hope that ‘the worst might be over’ is truly staggering. Profits are disintegrating,” he said. Today’s “bear rally” may live on into June. Don’t count on it. Global bourses are no longer rising hand-in-hand with oil in exuberant celebration of liquidity relief (US, UK, and Canadian rate cuts). Crude ceased to be a friend of equities when it reached around $110 a barrel. At last week’s close of $126, it became an outright threat. The Bush rescue package - $800 in rebate cheques per household - has been rendered null and void by the latest spike. The average UShome is now spending over 8pc of income on energy or fuel. OPEC is playing with fire by refusing to pump more oil to offset rebel attacks in Nigeria. The cartel’s output drop of 350,000 barrels a day in April is a hostile act at this point. But there again, why should Middle Eastern states help America as long as the White House keeps filling the US petroleum reserve to prepare for war with Iran? Bush is playing with fire, too. The oil spike will burn itself out. Chinahas hit the buffers. With
Re: [Keuangan] The global slump of 2008-09 has begun as poison spreads
Linens 'n Things, ($650m), Kimball Hill ($703m), Home Interiors ($310m), French Lick Resorts ($142m), Recycled Paper Greetings ($187m), and Tropicana Entertainment ($2.49bn). Mas, kalo menurut saya problem dari perusahaan2 diatas adalah fundamental dan gak seluruhnya gara2 kredit krisis.. kalo anda pernah ke linen n things dan ke tropicana di vegas.. anda pasti ngerti apa yang saya bilang.. Diane Vazza, SP's credit chief, says defaults are rising at almost twice the rate of past downturns. Companies are heading into this recession with a much more toxic mix. Their margin for error is razor-thin, she said. Two-thirds have a speculative rating, compared to 50pc before the dotcom bust, and 40pc in the early 1990s. The culprit is debt. They ramped it up in the last 18 months of the credit boom. A lot of deals were funded that should not have been funded, she said. Ini orang ngarang apa nyolong motong quote orang? setau saya companies di sini malah flush with cash. coba anda baca artikel ini http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109sid=aUv3WCFs__qwrefer=home kalo saya rasa dia ngambil quote dari diane pas diane ngomong soal private equity deal. contoh dia bilang a lot of deals were funded that should not have been funded kalo itu sih emang bener.. tapi kalo mister ambrose bilang ini untuk semua companies. itu mah dia ngarang.. e Bush rescue package - $800 in rebate cheques per household === ini jelas2 ngarang.. rebate checknya $600 per orang.. untuk yang berpenghasilan kurang dari $75K.. mendingan mas sidqy baca bloomberg atau cnbc atau wall street journal daripada baca tabloid.. masalahnya kita gak tau bener apa enggak faktanya.. On Tue, May 13, 2008 at 7:37 AM, sidqy suyitno [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: The global slump of 2008-09 has begun as poison spreads By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor Last Updated: 12:59amBST 13/05/2008http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/05/12/ccambrose112.xml The avalanche of bankruptcies has begun. Six UScompanies of substance have defaulted on bonds over the past fortnight, against 17 for the whole of last year. As a non-believer in the instant rebound story, I am not easily shocked by gloomy reports. But the latest note by Standard Poor's - The Bust After The Boom - gave me a fright. The sick list is varied, though most for now are victims of the housing crash: Linens 'n Things, ($650m), Kimball Hill ($703m), Home Interiors ($310m), French Lick Resorts ($142m), Recycled Paper Greetings ($187m), and Tropicana Entertainment ($2.49bn). As the Fed's latest loan survey makes clear, lenders have dropped the guillotine. With the usual delay, the poison is spreading from banks to the real world. Diane Vazza, SP's credit chief, says defaults are rising at almost twice the rate of past downturns. Companies are heading into this recession with a much more toxic mix. Their margin for error is razor-thin, she said. Two-thirds have a speculative rating, compared to 50pc before the dotcom bust, and 40pc in the early 1990s. The culprit is debt. They ramped it up in the last 18 months of the credit boom. A lot of deals were funded that should not have been funded, she said. Some 174 UScompanies are trading at distress levels. Spreads on their bonds have rocketed above 1,000 basis points. This does not cover the carnage among smaller firms outside the rating universe. The Californiacity of Vallejo(117,000 inhabitants) has just made history by opting for Chapter 9 bankruptcy, the result of tax erosion from a 26pc fall in local house prices. Half Moon Bay may be next. This is the tip of the iceberg: everybody is going to line up for Chapter 9 in California, said John Moorlach, OrangeCountyboard chief. USconsumers are juggling plastic to put off their day of reckoning. The Fed survey said credit card debt had jumped 6.7pc in the first quarter to $957bn, or $6,000 per working American, despite usury rates near 20pc. My guess is that many Americans continue to run up massive credit card debt because they have little intention of paying it off, said Peter Schiff at Euro Pacific Capital. Quite. Thankfully, the Fed's monetary blitz has averted a depression. Emergency lending under the unusual and exigent circumstances clause of the Fed Act - the nuclear Article 13 (3), unused since the 1930s - has put a floor under the banking system. There will be no reset Armaggedon as rates vault on honey-trap mortgages. Drastic Fed cuts - to 2pc from 5.25pc in September - have conjured away that disaster, at least. One dreads to think what would have happened if Fed liquidationists (Plosser, Hoenig, Fisher) had prevailed, as they did in 1930 - and still do in Euroland, where Germany's Axel Weber holds sway, and nobody of sense dares lead a mutiny. Despite the rescue, UShouse prices are likely to fall 25pc from peak
Re: [Keuangan] The global slump of 2008-09 has begun as poison spreads
At 10:23 AM 5/14/2008, you wrote: Diane Vazza, SP's credit chief, says defaults are rising at almost twice the rate of past downturns. Companies are heading into this recession with a much more toxic mix. Their margin for error is razor-thin, she said. Two-thirds have a speculative rating, compared to 50pc before the dotcom bust, and 40pc in the early 1990s. The culprit is debt. They ramped it up in the last 18 months of the credit boom. A lot of deals were funded that should not have been funded, she said. Ini orang ngarang apa nyolong motong quote orang? setau saya companies di sini malah flush with cash. coba anda baca artikel ini http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109sid=aUv3WCFs__qwrefer=homehttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109sid=aUv3WCFs__qwrefer=home Mungkin perlu diteliti dulu perusahaan mana yang flushed with cash - dan mana yang nggak. Seluruh perusahaan di SP 500 menurut link yang anda referkan - punya $615 Billion in cash TAPI kelihatan sekali jomplangnya. Gabungan Exxon Mobil ($34.5 Billion), Pfizer Inc ($25.5 Billion) dan Cisco ($22.7 Billion) sudah setara dengan $82.7 Billion atau 13% dari seluruh cash SP500. Lha bagaimana dengan 497 perusahaan lainnya? Bagaimana juga dengan posisi liabilities (baik jangka panjang maupun pendek)...? Berarti keadaan saat ini sangat ekstreme antara yang kelebihan duit dan yang kekurangan duit. Apalagi kalau kita membandingkan antara posisi cash terhadap asset secara historis. e Bush rescue package - $800 in rebate cheques per household === ini jelas2 ngarang.. rebate checknya $600 per orang.. untuk yang berpenghasilan kurang dari $75K.. Rasanya penjelasan anda juga tidak terlalu tepat (ada faktor pembeda antara household (seperti yang tertulis) dan orang (seperti yang anda sebut)) - karena masih ada tambahan rebate checks untuk setiap anak dibawah usia 17 dalam keluarga.
