[Assam] Sanjib Baruah on Kakopathar
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1060220/asp/opinion/story_5850159.asp The Telegraph (Calcutta) Monday, February 20, 2006 HOW THE STALEMATE MACHINE WORKS Sanjib Baruah The obvious lesson of Kakopathar is that counter-insurgency operations and negotiations towards peace do not go together, writes Sanjib Baruah The author is at the Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi, and Bard College, Annandale-on-Hudson, New York The developments in Assam over the past few days have made one thing clear: that reports in recent years of the United Liberation Front of Assam losing influence have been highly exaggerated. At least that is not the case in those parts of rural upper Assam the home ground of ULFAs exiled top leadership and the site of the recent unrest. For a number of days, pro-ULFA slogans and sentiments have been in open display as villagers of the Kakopathar region blocked a national highway, stormed army pickets, vandalized vehicles and even dug up the highway to protest against the custodial killing of a fellow villager by the Indian army. That the army describes the victim as an ULFA hit-man has had no effect on the publics sense of outrage. Nine persons were killed in a police firing of protesters. ULFA called an Assam bandh on February 13, protesting against the Kakopathar firing and its chairman, Arabinda Rajkhowa, compared the incident with the Jalianwalla Bagh massacre. The backdrop to these developments might initially seem awkward. The second meeting between the government of India and the ULFA-appointed peoples consultative group had just taken place in Delhi where the government even promised confidence-building measures to facilitate what could some day be called a peace process. However, important differences exist on the government side on whether to negotiate with ULFA. No less a person than Assams governor, Lieutenant General Ajai Singh architect of two counter-insurgency operations against ULFA publicly opposes negotiations. What is there to negotiate with them? he asks. Instead, he favours instilling fear in the rebels so that they cannot dictate terms. By contrast, Assams elected chief minister, Tarun Gogoi, has been strongly supportive of negotiations. Singh and some others in the security establishment would probably interpret Kakopathar as no more than a temporary setback. But if a single incident could become a trigger to such public anger and expression of pro-ULFA sentiments, one can hardly have confidence in the security establishments reading of the ground situation and its recipe for bringing about peace. Indias track record of ending internal armed conflicts is quite poor. Today the world has numerous intra-state armed conflicts, and everywhere they last long on average about seven years as opposed to six months for international wars according to one count. However, the duration of intra-state armed conflicts in India and in the rest of south Asia have been much longer than the world average. The Naga war despite the nine-year old ceasefire will soon enter the sixth decade, making it one of the worlds oldest armed conflicts. There are many reasons why most of our conflicts have been long-lasting. But one common factor seems to suggest itself. Those who study armed internal conflicts emphasize the role of a mutually hurting stalemate felt by conflicting parties as a necessary condition for pushing conflicts in the direction of a negotiated settlement. These theorists argue that when parties realize that further military escalation would not produce victory and that the costs of the status quo are unacceptably high, a conflict becomes ripe for resolution. But in India, even when conflicts have been terribly hurtful, localized suffering has not easily translated into high costs for the government side. Doing something about conflicts in the Northeast may be important for our national-level politicians, but no government has fallen because of the way it has handled or mishandled them. And after decades of counter-insurgency and attention to security, we have further cushioned our decision-making elites from the hurting effects of a stalemate. In a new two-tiered order, the top echelons of the bureaucracy, the army and the political establishment who live and travel with very high levels of security are now the security haves. Under these conditions, despite enormous suffering by civilians, those who favour a military solution or rather a victors peace tend to win policy arguments. They seem to believe that given the obvious military superiority of the governments side, all armed groups can be eventually bullied into submission. This of course has meant, in effect, stalemated long-duration armed conflicts and the costs being paid almost entirely by the security have-nots. One obvious lesson of Kakopathar is that counter-insurgency operations and efforts toward a negotiated peace do not go together.
Re: [Assam] Sanjib Baruah on Kakopathar
Very well said Baruah. Was surprised to all heck that the Telegraph decided to publish your analysis :-). Best, m At 5:50 PM -0500 2/19/06, Sanjib Baruah wrote: http://www.telegraphindia.com/1060220/asp/opinion/story_5850159.asp The Telegraph (Calcutta) Monday, February 20, 2006 HOW THE STALEMATE MACHINE WORKS Sanjib Baruah The obvious lesson of Kakopathar is that counter-insurgency operations and negotiations towards peace do not go together, writes Sanjib Baruah The author is at the Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi, and Bard College, Annandale-on-Hudson, New York The developments in Assam over the past few days have made one thing clear: that reports in recent years of the United Liberation Front of Assam losing influence have been highly exaggerated. At least that is not the case in those parts of rural upper Assam the home ground of ULFAs exiled top leadership and the site of the recent unrest. For a number of days, pro-ULFA slogans and sentiments have been in open display as villagers of the Kakopathar region blocked a national highway, stormed army pickets, vandalized vehicles and even dug up the highway to protest against the custodial killing of a fellow villager by the Indian army. That the army describes the victim as an ULFA hit-man has had no effect on the publics sense of outrage. Nine persons were killed in a police firing of protesters. ULFA called an Assam bandh on February 13, protesting against the Kakopathar firing and its chairman, Arabinda Rajkhowa, compared the incident with the Jalianwalla Bagh massacre. The backdrop to these developments might initially seem awkward. The second meeting between the government of India and the ULFA-appointed peoples consultative group had just taken place in Delhi where the government even promised confidence-building measures to facilitate what could some day be called a peace process. However, important differences exist on the government side on whether to negotiate with ULFA. No less a person than Assams governor, Lieutenant General Ajai Singh architect of two counter-insurgency operations against ULFA publicly opposes negotiations. What is there to negotiate with them? he asks. Instead, he favours instilling fear in the rebels so that they cannot dictate terms. By contrast, Assams elected chief minister, Tarun Gogoi, has been strongly supportive of negotiations. Singh and some others in the security establishment would probably interpret Kakopathar as no more than a temporary setback. But if a single incident could become a trigger to such public anger and expression of pro-ULFA sentiments, one can hardly have confidence in the security establishments reading of the ground situation and its recipe for bringing about peace. Indias track record of ending internal armed conflicts is quite poor. Today the world has numerous intra-state armed conflicts, and everywhere they last long on average about seven years as opposed to six months for international wars according to one count. However, the duration of intra-state armed conflicts in India and in the rest of south Asia have been much longer than the world average. The Naga war despite the nine-year old ceasefire will soon enter the sixth decade, making it one of the worlds oldest armed conflicts. There are many reasons why most of our conflicts have been long-lasting. But one common factor seems to suggest itself. Those who study armed internal conflicts emphasize the role of a mutually hurting stalemate felt by conflicting parties as a necessary condition for pushing conflicts in the direction of a negotiated settlement. These theorists argue that when parties realize that further military escalation would not produce victory and that the costs of the status quo are unacceptably high, a conflict becomes ripe for resolution. But in India, even when conflicts have been terribly hurtful, localized suffering has not easily translated into high costs for the government side. Doing something about conflicts in the Northeast may be important for our national-level politicians, but no government has fallen because of the way it has handled or mishandled them. And after decades of counter-insurgency and attention to security, we have further cushioned our decision-making elites from the hurting effects of a stalemate. In a new two-tiered order, the top echelons of the bureaucracy, the army and the political establishment who live and travel with very high levels of security are now the security haves. Under these conditions, despite enormous suffering by civilians, those who favour a military solution or rather a victors peace tend to win policy arguments. They seem to believe that given the obvious military superiority of the governments side, all armed groups can be eventually bullied into submission. This of course has meant, in effect, stalemated long-duration armed conflicts and the costs being paid almost entirely by the security have-nots. One obvious lesson of
Re: [Assam] Sanjib Baruah on Kakopathar
Assam, for that matter North East's insurgency is similar to that of Peru's Shining Path insurgency. Peru's majority didnot take along half the population in the developmental path, this led to a long 2 decades of fighting between the govt. forces and the guerrillas. The human rights violations there were worse than NE probably. The setting up of the truth commission is one idea we can borrow from that country. Let the govt. set up an international truth commission that will go into the reasons, rights abuses and suggest solutions. All the parties should abide by the commissions recommendations and find a lastign solution. MKD On 2/20/06, Roy, Santanu [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Dear Sanjib: Excellent piece - enjoyed reading it. Thanks for posting it, Hopefully your writings will inspire some innovative thinking in circles that think. Your characterization of the stalemate machine is quite apt. Your observation that ...in India, even when conflicts have been terribly hurtful, localized suffering has not easily translated into high costs for the government side. Doing something about conflicts in the Northeast may be important for our national-level politicians, but no government has fallen because of the way it has handled or mishandled them. And after decades of counter-insurgency and attention to security, we have further cushioned our decision-making elites from the hurting effects of a stalemate. is at the heart of the problem. Indeed, (at the risk of being repetitive) I have always felt that the very forces that cushion our decision making elites from the hurtful effects of a stalemate, the structures that ensure that localized suffering ...not easily translated into high costs for the government are also at the very root of the various reasons why local discontentment and localized insurgency emerge in the first place. There is a vicious circle here that acts as feedback mechanism and this to my view points to a fundamental failure of the Indian state. So, is there any hope? Perhaps, hope lies in some change of circumstances - something in the regular process of social change - or perhaps some turn of history that will make the ground reality in north eastern India (or Assam) extremely important to the interests of the political and bureucratic elite of the mainland. I can think of many examples. I can wish for some. But that would be wishful thinking. Take care- Santanu. -Original Message- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] on behalf of Sanjib Baruah Sent: Mon 2/20/2006 7:50 AM To: assam@assamnet.org Subject: [Assam] Sanjib Baruah on Kakopathar http://www.telegraphindia.com/1060220/asp/opinion/story_5850159.asp The Telegraph (Calcutta) Monday, February 20, 2006 HOW THE STALEMATE MACHINE WORKS Sanjib Baruah The obvious lesson of Kakopathar is that counter-insurgency operations and negotiations towards peace do not go together, writes Sanjib Baruah The author is at the Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi, and Bard College, Annandale-on-Hudson, New York The developments in Assam over the past few days have made one thing clear: that reports in recent years of the United Liberation Front of Assam losing influence have been highly exaggerated. At least that is not the case in those parts of rural upper Assam the home ground of ULFAs exiled top leadership and the site of the recent unrest. For a number of days, pro-ULFA slogans and sentiments have been in open display as villagers of the Kakopathar region blocked a national highway, stormed army pickets, vandalized vehicles and even dug up the highway to protest against the custodial killing of a fellow villager by the Indian army. That the army describes the victim as an ULFA hit-man has had no effect on the publics sense of outrage. Nine persons were killed in a police firing of protesters. ULFA called an Assam bandh on February 13, protesting against the Kakopathar firing and its chairman, Arabinda Rajkhowa, compared the incident with the Jalianwalla Bagh massacre. The backdrop to these developments might initially seem awkward. The second meeting between the government of India and the ULFA-appointed peoples consultative group had just taken place in Delhi where the government even promised confidence-building measures to facilitate what could some day be called a peace process. However, important differences exist on the government side on whether to negotiate with ULFA. No less a person than Assams governor, Lieutenant General Ajai Singh architect of two counter-insurgency operations against ULFA publicly opposes negotiations. What is there to negotiate with them? he asks. Instead, he favours instilling fear in the rebels so that they cannot dictate terms. By contrast, Assams elected chief minister, Tarun Gogoi, has been strongly supportive of negotiations. Singh and some others in the security establishment would probably interpret Kakopathar as no more
