Re: Religion and greed

[Gwern Branwen]

On Dec 13, 2007 3:50 PM, Lance A. Brown <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>
> jon louis mann wrote:
> > they do seem to go together.  there are greedy liberals as well,
> > although their religious beliefs are generally more progressive than
> > evangelical.  hopefully, there may be a way to medicate all varieties
> > of social and behavior disorders, some day...
>
> Welcome to Brave New World...
>
> --[Lance]

MIRANDA.

O, wonder!
How many goodly creatures are there here!
How beauteous mankind is! O brave new world
That has such people in't!

PROSPERO.

'Tis new to thee.

--
gwern
sarcastic gibe maru
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Is Robin Hanson right about harmful health care?

[Gwern Branwen]

'The Checklist: If something so simple can transform intensive care,
what else can it do?'




"This is the reality of intensive care: at any point, we are as apt to
harm as we are to heal. Line infections are so common that they are
considered a routine complication. I.C.U.s put five million lines into
patients each year, and national statistics show that, after ten days,
four per cent of those lines become infected. Line infections occur in
eighty thousand people a year in the United States, and are fatal
between five and twenty-eight per cent of the time, depending on how
sick one is at the start. Those who survive line infections spend on
average a week longer in intensive care. And this is just one of many
risks. After ten days with a urinary catheter, four per cent of
American I.C.U. patients develop a bladder infection. After ten days
on a ventilator, six per cent develop bacterial pneumonia, resulting
in death forty to fifty-five per cent of the time. All in all, about
half of I.C.U. patients end up experiencing a serious complication,
and, once a complication occurs, the chances of survival drop
sharply."

--
gwern
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Re: Death Note

[Gwern Branwen]

On 10/20/07, Robert Seeberger <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> Tonight on the Cartoon Network.
>
>
>
>
>
> xponent
> Watch It Maru
> rob

I watched a little of it.

Can't say I'm thrilled by the dub - Raito is not nearly as suave,
sophisticated, or sinister as he should be. (Although Ryuk and
everyone else introduced so far struck me as fine.)

--
gwern
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Re: Deathly Hallows - no spoilers

[Gwern Branwen]

On 7/21/07, Gautam Mukunda <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> I just finished it.  I'm in San Diego, so I lost three hours due to the time 
> change, but just finished it.  It's amazing, wonderful, deeply moving, and 
> not just everything I hoped for, but far more.  Happy reading to all of you 
> still working on it!!!
>
> Gautam Mukunda

YAR MATEY, SPOILERS MAY BE BELOW


I'm in agreement. It was action-packed, brought in all sorts of
details I had hoped to see again like Ollivanders and Gregorovitch,
did a decent job of persuading us how both evil and how pathetic
Voldemort and his group is (effectively brought home when Harry and
Dumbledore are talking on the King's Cross station and the little
thing - which I take as representing the state of Voldemort's soul -
keeps interrupting. It's quite nasty and sad, and for some reason
during that conversation I kept on thinking about Fullmetal Alchemist
and the sadness of the homunculi), and finally wound up in a
reasonably epic and moving climax. Most importantly, the ending was
satisfactory and didn't feel at all cheap or like a copout.

I'm not 100% pleased, though. The epilogue just felt kind of silly to
me; I'm still not convinced that a Ron/Hermione pairing isn't
ridiculous and just forced; I feel a little gyped that Harry has a
Deathly Hallow all 7 books but the first time we're given any inkling
that his cloak is particularly special is basically when the senior
Lovegood dismisses all other invisibility cloaks as being pathetic.
(And besides, if the Deathly Hallow cloak really is so perfect at
hiding, how did Dumbledore see Harry sneaking in to see the Mirror of
Erised? That little incident convinced me that the cloak was useful
but nothing more unusually special than other things people had like
Hermione's time-travel device. I feel a little betrayed at that.)
Other things didn't quite ring true either - why would Voldemort be
convinced the last Horcrux would be safe inside the Room of
Requirement's room for hiding things when it's so obviously full of
other people's stuff, implying that there's a quite regular traffic in
and out of it? Further, if knowledge of the Deathly Hallows is so
widespread that a kook like the senior Lovegood, Dumbeldore,
Grindelwald, and at least 2 wandmakers know about it, then how could
Voldemort (the first or second greatest wizard of all time, mind you,
who is absolutely obsessed with anything that influences death or
could offer immortality) *not* know about it and be so foolish as to
make a Hallow a Horcrux and leave it lying around?

But I guess you could argue that getting the big stuff right outweighs
all such small stuff.

--
gwern
mania 701 CTP CATO Phon-e Chicago Posse NSDM
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Re: transportation

[Gwern Branwen]

On  0, jon louis mann <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> scribbled:
> wonderful dream, max, but could you smole a pipe on a
> zeppelin; would they be hydrogen or helium?  how would
> you avoid another hindenberg?
> jlm

As I recall, wasn't the Hindenburg disaster due to the flammable paint and a 
known design flaw which allowed the buildup of static electricity? I have 
little doubt we could do better today.

--
Gwern
Inquiring minds want to know.

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Re: Sci-Fi Channel to add Anime Block

[Gwern Branwen]

On  0, Damon Agretto <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> scribbled:
> IIRC I watched mine in Sub format, and I almost never listen to commentaries
> (rather figure it out myself). With that in mind, the comment about
> commentaries has no point for me...
>
> Damon.

Symptomatic of the general quality of the work Manga Entertainment does. If I 
were considering watching them on Sci-Fi Channel (I think it's a safe bet what 
will be shown will be the dubs), I would find issues of bad or unfaithful 
translations, poor dubs, and misleading accompanying material to be germane.

--
Gwern
Inquiring minds want to know.

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Re: Sci-Fi Channel to add Anime Block

[Gwern Branwen]

On  0, Damon Agretto <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> scribbled:
> > Ack! They're licensing from Manga Entertainment? Call me crazy, but my
> > past impression of their localization has been that it was less than
> > stellar (the Evangelion movies being a particularly egregrious cause in
> > point).
>
> What was wrong with the Evangelion movies?
>
> Damon, has a vinyl statue of Rei on his desk...

Well, leaving entirely aside the merit of the movies (which has launched a 
thousand flamewars), chief amongst my complaints are these: Manga 
Entertainment's dub was poor; gratuitous changes to the script made; it took 
forever to be released; and the commentaries in particular must be singled out 
for particular disdain as unadulterated misleading garbage. For a more 
trenchant take, see  
(under "Commentary of Evil").

--
Gwern
Inquiring minds want to know.

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Re: Sci-Fi Channel to add Anime Block

[Gwern Branwen]

On  0, "Robert G. Seeberger" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> scribbled:
> http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/news/2007-05-05/sci-fi-channel-launches-anime-block
>
> http://tinyurl.com/2wu6pt
>
>
> Broadcasting & Cable reports that on June 11, the Sci Fi Channel will
> premiere Ani-Monday, a weekly two-hour block of anime programming.
> Episodes, films, and other content for the block will be provided by
> Manga Entertainment, a unit of Starz Media. Starz is the production
> company behind Sci Fi's original series Painkiller Jane. According to
> Sci Fi executive vice-president Dave Howe, this block is a part of an
> overall initiative to redefine Sci Fi as a "lifestyle brand," not just
> a cable TV channel.
>
> The new block, which will air from 11:00 p.m. to 1:00 a.m., is
> intended to directly compete with Cartoon Network's Adult Swim block.
> Broadcasting & Cable reports that through the first months of this
> year, Adult Swim has averaged 281,000 male viewers aged 18-34 during
> that timeslot. For the same age bracket and timeslot, Sci Fi Channel's
> average was 44,000 viewers.
>
>
>
> http://www.broadcastingcable.com/article/CA6439376.html
>
>
>
>
>
> In an attempt to lure younger viewers and expand the reach of its
> brand, Sci Fi Channel is launching Ani-Monday, a two-hour late-night
> block of anime programming. Set to premiere June 11, the slate will
> put the network in direct competition with Cartoon Network's
> late-night ratings powerhouse Adult Swim, which programs anime as
> well.
>
> Running from 11 p.m. to 1 a.m., the block will include acquired
> series, movies and shorts.
>
> The content comes from Manga, one of three major U.S. anime
> distributors and a unit of Starz Media, which produces Sci Fi's
> live-action original Painkiller Jane, among other network shows.
>
> Sci Fi, which signed a one-year deal with Starz, is aiming to better
> reach an 18- to 34-year-old male audience and convert those new
> viewers into fans of Sci Fi's other content.
>
> If successful, the move would lower the network's median age
> (currently about 45) and hopefully attract more advertising from young
> male-targeting categories, like movies and electronics. Sci Fi would
> then likely work the formula across other nights.
>
> The network recently got approval from parent company NBC Universal to
> start a business division, which is producing Sci Fi-branded comic
> books in partnership with Virgin Comics. Sci Fi is also considering
> feature films, videogames and mobile products.
>
> "This is part of a whole initiative to target a youth audience and
> figure out how we start to transform the Sci Fi brand away from just
> being a TV cable brand and more into a lifestyle brand that can move
> into other levels," says Executive VP/GM Dave Howe.
>
> Sci Fi has been eyeing late night for years and enters the market at a
> time when the daypart has never been more competitive. Late-night ad
> revenue reached nearly $1 billion for broadcast alone last year, and
> cable networks are increasingly programming in that time period as
> well.
>
> Sci Fi will most directly battle Adult Swim, which targets the same
> young-male audience and programs six nights a week for a total of 45
> hours. (Cartoon Network recently announced a move to expand the block
> to include Fridays.)
>
> For 2007 to date, Adult Swim has averaged 281,000 viewers among men
> 18-34 from 11 p.m. to 1 a.m. for the six days it programs. For the
> same period, Sci Fi averaged 44,000 males age 18-34 from 11 p.m. to 1
> a.m. on those days. Currently, Sci Fi runs acquired movies during
> those hours. By comparison, the network averaged 121,000 males 18-34
> during prime hours 8-11 p.m.
>
> Viacom's Comedy Central lures just as many 18-34 males as Cartoon with
> its Daily Show/Colbert Report late-night salvo.
>
> And Turner's comedy-focused TBS has also added originals to its
> late-night hours over the past year, including half-hour comedies and
> last summer's experimental, live interactive game show Midnight Money
> Madness.
>
>
>
> 
>
> Is it just me, or is Sci-Fi as a "lifestyle brand" hilarious?
>
> The blocks premier offering will be Ghost in the Shell: Stand Alone
> Complex - Solid State Society. This is a movie, not a half hour
> series.
>
>
>
> xponent
>
> Up Too Early Maru
>
> rob

Ack! They're licensing from Manga Entertainment? Call me crazy, but my past 
impression of their localization has been that it was less than stellar (the 
Evangelion movies being a particularly egregrious cause in point).

Oh well. Here's to them showing ''Legend of the Overfiend'' or ''Perfect Blue''!

--
Gwern
Inquiring minds want to know.

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Re: Brin: Actuarial Science Fiction

[Gwern Branwen]

message of "Thu, 8 Mar 2007 15:46:08 -0200") Message-ID: 
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]> User-Agent: Gnus/5.110006 (No 
Gnus v0.6) Emacs/22.0.95 (gnu/linux) --text follows this line--
"Alberto Monteiro" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes:
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; format=flowed
> Is there any serious attempt to apply Science Fiction methods
> to Actuarial Science?
>
> It amazes me that Actuarial Science takes a cohort of people 
> in their 20s and then projects their economical future until 
> they die - which may happen 100 years from now.
>
> Alberto Monteiro the Astrologer
Not really following you here. I don't think it's amazing - I 
think it works, as evidenced by the fact that the life insurance 
is a viable business which at the very least shows that it's a 
more rational model of calculating life spans than most people 
use.
Are you referring to people like Aubrey de Grey and his SENS, or 
the so-called actuarial escape velocity?
-- 
Gwern
Inquiring minds want to know.
Date: Thu, 08 Mar 2007 12:58:00 -0500 In-Reply-To:
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]> (Alberto Monteiro's
message of "Thu, 8 Mar 2007 15:46:08 -0200") Message-ID:
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]> User-Agent: Gnus/5.110006 (No
Gnus v0.6) Emacs/22.0.95 (gnu/linux)
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Re: UFO science key to halting climate change: former Canadian

[Gwern Branwen]

Date: Fri, 02 Mar 2007 11:24:40 -0500
In-Reply-To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> (Ronn's
message of "Fri, 02 Mar 2007 09:59:38 -0600")
Message-ID: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
User-Agent: Gnus/5.110006 (No Gnus v0.6) Emacs/22.0.94 (gnu/linux)
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; format=flowed
--text follows this line--
Ronn! Blankenship <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes:

> UFO science key to halting climate change: former Canadian 
defense minister
>
> Wed Feb 28, 1:04 PM ET
>
> OTTAWA (AFP) - A former Canadian defense minister is demanding 
> governments worldwide disclose and use secret alien technologies 
> obtained in alleged UFO crashes to stem climate change, a local 
  paper 
> said Wednesday.
>
> [Illustration]
> AFP/Illustration Photo: A former Canadian defense minister is 
> demanding governments worldwide disclose and use secret alien 
technologies...
>
> "I would like to see what (alien) technology there might be that 
> could eliminate the burning of fossil fuels within a generation 
  ... 
> that could be a way to save our planet," Paul Hellyer, 83, told 
  the 
> Ottawa Citizen.
>
> Alien spacecrafts would have traveled vast distances to reach 
  Earth, 
> and so must be equipped with advanced propulsion systems or used 
> exceptional fuels, he told the newspaper.
>
> Such alien technologies could offer humanity alternatives to 
  fossil 
> fuels, he said, pointing to the enigmatic 1947 incident in 
  Roswell, 
> New Mexico -- which has become a shrine for UFO believers -- as 
  an 
> example of alien contact.
>
> "We need to persuade governments to come clean on what they 
  know. 
> Some of us suspect they know quite a lot, and it might be enough 
  to 
> save our planet if applied quickly enough," he said.
>
> Hellyer became defense minister in former prime minister Lester 
> Pearson's cabinet in 1963, and oversaw the controversial 
  integration 
> and unification of Canada's army, air force and navy into the 
Canadian Forces.
>
> He shocked Canadians in September 2005 by announcing he once saw 
a UFO.
>
> 
  
>
> -- Ronn!  :)

Good thing he's *former*, eh? Can't really blame him, though - ol' 
Paul's pushing 84 or 85 by now.
 
-- 
Gwern
Inquiring minds want to know.
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Re: ADMIN: Network outage

[Gwern Branwen]

Charlie Bell <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes:

> On 24/01/2007, at 2:51 PM, Doug wrote:
>
>>
>> Any feeling of privacy we might get by not having an archive is a  
>> facade; email is not a very private medium.
>>
>> We've almost always been publicly archived here and I can't think  
>> of any problems the list or anyone subscribed to it has encountered  
>> as a result.  I'm curious what sort of problems do you anticipate?
>
> It's pretty commonplace these days for companies to google  
> applicants. Just as what my personal views down the pub are on  
> certain subjects are no-one's business if they weren't there at the  
> time, what I say in a mailing list is only the business of the people  
> on that list, but a public archive changes that dynamic.
>
> As it is, the archives have mainly been only accessible to  
> subscribers as far as I'm aware, which is enough of a firewall for  
> me. Yes, email isn't very private, neither are conversations in the  
> street, but you wouldn't want someone you never met to be able to see  
> snippets of conversations out of context long after the fact.
>
> Charlie

Accessible only to subscribers? But I thought Gmane offered Brin-l and
public archives.

-- 
Gwern
Inquiring minds want to know.
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Re: New take on Fermi Paradox

[Gwern Branwen]

"[EMAIL PROTECTED]" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes:

> Original Message:
> -----
> From: Gwern Branwen [EMAIL PROTECTED]
> Date: Thu, 18 Jan 2007 23:39:06 -0500
> To: brin-l@mccmedia.com
> Subject: Re: New take on Fermi Paradox
>
>
>
>>This seems way too pessimistic, or I'm missing something. If there are
>>only 8^2 probes (each one builds 8 more, and the making stops there),
>>that might make sense, but if each probe can make another 8 - which
>>the article doesn't seem to clearly specify either way - then it
>>doesn't take too many generations before the limit is something more
>>reasonable like how long it takes to cross the galaxy: at ~100,000
>>light-years in diameter, and travelling at .10 c, one would expect to
>>see visitors within one or 2 million years of the first batch of
>>replicators sent out.
>
> If we were a long lived (in terms of millions of years) civilization and it
> were important to us to explore the galaxy, then one obvious solution would
> be the development of Von Neumann machines: self-replicating machines to
> explore the galaxy.  Even if it took each machine a century to build two
> more, being used up by the process, within 5000 years, there would be >
> 10^15 of these machines, spread through the galaxy.  
>
> Thus, this type of solution to the Fermi Paradox asumes that there is a
> very good reason that advanced civilizations do not build Von Neumann
> machines to explore the galaxy. I bet many of us could write short stories
> explaining why.
>
> Dan M.  

I won't belabor y'all with the usual suspects, but I'd like to note an
interesting and new one I saw recently on the SL4 mailing list:
<http://sl4.org/archive/0701/16139.html>

The germane bit is: 
"The key factor here is that ET can do a lot more in a lot
less time than us. This may lead to an interest rate of, say, 100%
per day. There is also the posthuman equivalent of discounting for
deathIf you do the math, you may find that the payoff from harvesting a
sun's energy, is not high enough to justify the energy investment for
a space probe, due to the very high discounting rate."

A high-speed economy as the reason for stay-at-home aliens? Well, it's
definitely a new one on me.

--Gwern
Inquiring minds want to know.
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Re: New take on Fermi Paradox

[Gwern Branwen]

William T Goodall <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes:

> http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/story/0,,1993006,00.html
>
> "So much space, so little time: why aliens haven't found us yet
>
>
> Ian Sample, science correspondent
> Thursday January 18, 2007
> The Guardian
>
> It ranks among the most enduring mysteries of the cosmos. Physicists  
> call it the Fermi paradox after the Italian Nobel laureate Enrico  
> Fermi, who, in 1950, pointed out the glaring conflict between  
> predictions that life was elsewhere in the universe - and the  
> conspicuous lack of aliens who have come to visit.
>
> Now a Danish researcher believes he may have solved the paradox.  
> Extra-terrestrials have yet to find us because they haven't had  
> enough time to look.
>
> Using a computer simulation of our own galaxy, the Milky Way, Rasmus  
> Bjork, a physicist at the Niels Bohr institute in Copenhagen,  
> proposed that a single civilisation might build eight intergalactic  
> probes and launch them on missions to search for life. Once on their  
> way each probe would send out eight more mini-probes, which would  
> head for the nearest stars and look for habitable planets.

>
> -- 
> William T Goodall

This seems way too pessimistic, or I'm missing something. If there are
only 8^2 probes (each one builds 8 more, and the making stops there),
that might make sense, but if each probe can make another 8 - which
the article doesn't seem to clearly specify either way - then it
doesn't take too many generations before the limit is something more
reasonable like how long it takes to cross the galaxy: at ~100,000
light-years in diameter, and travelling at .10 c, one would expect to
see visitors within one or 2 million years of the first batch of
replicators sent out.

--Gwern
-- 
Inquiring minds want to know.
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