http://www.spacewar.com/news/nuclear-doctrine-05m.html
What is the strategic purpose of North Korea's nuclear weapons drive?
Does it want to use them against the United States, South Korea or
other nations? Or is it seeking to sell nuclear material to
terrorists?
If not, is the program aimed at gathering greater bargaining strength
with the United States?
The question has dominated South Korean security officials and
scholars since North Korea's nuclear weapons program became public in
1993.
Few analysts in Seoul believe North Korea will use nuclear weapons
because it knows such a move would be catastrophic. At the least,
U.N.-backed sanctions would lead the North's already faltering economy
to collapse, resulting in political turmoil.
Pyongyang says its pursuit of nuclear weapons is defensive to cope
with U.S. "reckless moves for military aggression," but analysts
dismiss the claim because if North Korea had no weapons, the United
States would have no reason to attack it.
This is why many analysts in South Korea say the North's nuclear
threats are aimed at gaining leverage.
With the nuclear card in hand, Kim Jong Il's regime seeks massive
economic assistance from the outside world and diplomatic ties with
Washington, which can ensure its political and economic survival.
For this purpose, North Korea employs a "strategy of ambiguity" in
dealing with U.S.-led anti-proliferation efforts. It has asserted its
right to have atomic weapons, but has remained vague about whether
they already exist, leading to confusion.
Some experts say Pyongyang's claim of a nuclear arsenal is a lie,
while others say it could be real.
If North Korea's nuclear brinkmanship for the past 10 years is aimed
at buying time to develop nuclear bombs, it may have succeeded. The
United States and South Korea believe the North has made one or two
bombs. North Korea declared in February it had nuclear weapons.
But Pyongyang's attempt to use the nuclear threat to win economic aid
and political concessions has failed to yield results.
The country's economy has become weaker, forcing Kim's regime to ease
communist economic rule. The nation is also under more political
pressure from the outside.
The United States has floated the possibility of taking North Korea to
the U.N. Security Council for action if it continues to refuse to
return to multilateral talks, following Pyongyang's apparent move
toward additional weapons-grade plutonium.
North Korea has refused to return to the six-nation process that also
involves the United States, South Korea, China, Japan and Russia.
June, which marks a year since the talks were last held, is widely
considered a deadline for a return to negotiations.
Washington's Proliferation Security Initiative, an international
effort that allows for the seizure of missiles and other potential
components of weapons of mass destruction shipped from North Korea and
other countries of concern, could also be used against the North.
"It is a very effective tool to deal with the problems of
proliferation that might resort from any place of the world," U.S.
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said this week.
Analysts in Seoul say Kim must make a decision because U.S. patience
is wearing thin.
Kim Tae-hyun, a professor at Chung-Ang University in Seoul, says the
United States is waiting one last time before seeking tougher options.
"Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has stepped up efforts to
maintain the dialogue momentum to resolve the North Korean nuclear
problem, dispatching chief U.S. nuclear negotiator Christopher Hill to
Seoul, Beijing and Tokyo," he said.
Hill, assistant secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific affairs,
flew to Seoul Saturday and met with South Korean officials before
leaving for Beijing Tuesday.
"What we are focusing on is the diplomatic track and the need to get
the talks going, and more importantly, once they get going, to achieve
progress in the talks," he said after meeting with his South Korean
counterpart, Song Min-soon.
In Beijing, Hill said he was trying "to get the six-party process
going."
"We have got five countries that are there and one that continues to
stay away, so as soon as we get the North Koreans to the talks, we
look forward to vigorous negotiations," he said.
South Korean officials, however, say Hill also hinted for the first
time his nation could explore other options to prevent North Korea
from building a nuclear arsenal.
"As North Korea gas refused to return the bargaining table for almost
a year, U.S. patience is rapidly running out," Kim said.
"If North Korea's nuclear diplomacy is aimed at securing economic and
political benefits, it should recognize time is running out and move
to get them."
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