[CTRL] Fwd: Ethiopia/Eritrea/Somalia
__ Stratfor's FREE Kosovo Crisis Center - http://www.stratfor.com/kosovo/crisis/ The most comprehensive coverage of the Kosovo Crisis anywhere on the Internet __ STRATFOR's Global Intelligence Update April 21, 1999 Conflict Spreads in Horn of Africa Summary: Somali warlords have accused Ethiopian troops of launching raids deep in Somali territory. While the allegations have been denied by the Ethiopian government, still it appears that the conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea is spreading by proxy, threatening to involve not only Somalia but also Sudan and even Egypt. Analysis: The Somali newspaper Mogadishu Times reported April 19 that Ethiopian troops have reached Bardaale in the Bay region of Somalia, northwest of Mogadishu. The newspaper charged that the Ethiopian forces had already seized many areas in the neighboring Gedo region, which borders Ethiopia and Kenya. Ethiopia denied allegations earlier this month that it had sent heavily armed forces to intervene in factional fighting in Gedo region, and will no doubt deny this deeper incursion into Somalia. However, evidence suggests that the conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea continues to spill over into neighboring states, intensifying local conflicts and threatening to destabilize the region. Somali warlords Hussein Mohamed Aideed, Ali Mahdi Mohamed, and Omar Haji Mohamed "Masale" sent a letter to UN Secretary General Kofi Annan on April 11, charging that heavily armed Ethiopian forces had launched a series of attacks in Gedo region beginning April 8, and demanding that the UN Security Council take action against Addis Ababa. Copies of the letter were sent to the Arab League, the OAU, and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD). The warlords alleged that Ethiopian forces had occupied the towns of Bulo Hawo and Dollo in Gedo region and had arrested local leaders. Ethiopian government spokeswoman Selome Tadesse called the Somali allegations "unfounded" and an attempt by "devious forces" to portray Ethiopia as an invader. She said that Ethiopia had captured a group of Somalis on the 10th or 11th near Dollo as they attempted to smuggle large amounts of explosives from multiple countries of origin into Ethiopia. However the BBC, Agence France Presse, and the Indian Ocean Newsletter all reported that Ethiopian troops had intervened in the area on behalf of one faction in a power struggle within the Somali National Front -- the faction opposed to Omar Haji Mohamed and the Mogadishu warlords. Kenya has reportedly closed its border with Somalia in the region, and the Arab League has stated its concern with the Ethiopian Army's presence within Somalia, and announced that it would ask Addis Ababa to withdraw the troops. Bulo Hawo is reportedly a stronghold of the fundamentalist rebel group Al-Ittihad Al-Islam, and Ethiopia has carried out attacks on the group several times in the past. Ethiopia's rebel Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), which has allegedly received Libyan- funded arms shipments from Eritrea, is also reportedly active in Gedo region. As we reported April 7, both Ethiopia and Eritrea are arming competing factions in Somalia in a growing proxy war [http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/040799.asp]. In addition to the list of countercharges outlined in our last report, Ethiopia has alleged that Arab doctors are tending to wounded Eritrean officers at a clinic in southern Somalia controlled by Hussein Mohamed Aideed. Ethiopia also suggested that the recent kidnapping of three people in eastern Ethiopia was carried out by the Ogaden National Liberation Front, also allegedly supported by Eritrea via Aideed in Somalia. Aideed, in turn, claimed his militia killed three Somali agents of the Ethiopian government sent to Mogadishu to abduct Oromo rebel leaders. An official at Ethiopia's embassy in Nairobi denied Aideed's allegation, calling it "a continuation of the fabrications made by certain forces in Somalia who are explicitly supported by Eritrea." While the spillover of the Ethiopian-Eritrean conflict into Somalia is apparently increasing, it is not the only potentially dangerous extension of that conflict. Sudan's foreign ministry on April 19 requested a postponement of peace talks with the opposition Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA), scheduled to be held April 20-25 in Nairobi, under the auspices of the IGAD. Sudan has charged the SPLA with repeatedly violating a cease fire agreement. While it was Khartoum that called off the talks, the Ethiopian-Eritrean war is having a serious impact on the peace process. Ethiopia and Eritrea are both members of the IGAD, and both have actively supported and hosted the Sudanese opposition forces. The Ethiopian-Eritrean conflict has thrown regional alliances into a flux, disrupting the Sudanese opposition, while the conflict has also undermined Ethiopia and Eritrea's contribution to IGAD's at
[CTRL] Fwd: Ethiopia/Eritrea/Somalia
__ Stratfor's FREE Kosovo Crisis Center - http://www.stratfor.com/kosovo/crisis/ The most comprehensive coverage of the Kosovo Crisis anywhere on the Internet __ STRATFOR's Global Intelligence Update April 7, 1999 Somalia -- Emerging Third Front in the Ethiopia-Eritrea War? Summary: Reports continue to emerge that Asmara and Addis Ababa are arming competing factions in Somalia in order to create a third front that could break the deadlock on the Ethiopian-Eritrean battle front. While both sides deny the charges, the consistency and redundancy of the reports and the logic of the presumed underlying strategy suggests that Somalia may soon emerge as a third front in the war -- or at least as a new source of chaos in its own right. Analysis: According to the April 3 edition of the Mogadishu daily Xog- Ogaal, a truckload of ammunition arrived in Mogadishu on April 1 from the town of Beled Weyne near the Ethiopian border. The ammunition was allegedly part of a 40 metric ton shipment supplied to warlord Hussein Haji Bod by Ethiopia. Two similar truckloads were reportedly detained by members of the United Somali Congress-Patriotic Movement (USC-PM) in Beled Weyne. While Xog-Ogaal is supportive of Mogadishu warlords Hussein Mohamed Aideed and Ali Mahdi Mohamed, who are opposed to Ethiopia, an April 3 Agence France Presse article confirms the report. AFP cited witnesses, including one of the workers who reportedly unloaded the shipment, as saying that multiple cargo trucks escorted by gunmen in machine-gun mounted pickup trucks ["technicals"] delivered the ammunition to the Gedoole militia compound in northern Mogadishu. Adding to the paper trail, on March 31, Mahdi Mohamed charged Ethiopia with violating the arms embargo on Somalia by providing weapons and ammunition to various factions. In comments carried on April 1 in Xog-Ogaal and on March 31 in the Mogadishu daily Qaran, Mahdi Mohamed claimed that United Somali Congress splinter group leaders in Beled Weyne, including Hussein Bod, Umar Hashi, Muhammad Dhereh, and several others, had received arms from the Ethiopian government. Mahdi Mohamed alleged that technicals had been dispatched from Mogadishu to escort the arms from Beled Weyne. Qaran noted that this was the first time some of the warlords had received aid from Ethiopia, and that some rival factions were being armed by Eritrea. Both Eritrea and Ethiopia have denied the charges. This by no means the first allegation that the deadlocked battle between Ethiopia and Eritrea may be seeping into neighboring Somalia. The Mogadishu newspaper Tarik reported on March 6 that some 200 of Aideed's militiamen would travel to Eritrea for military training. In late January, the Rahanwein Resistance Army and the Digil Salvation Army factions in Somalia alleged that Eritrea had flown five plane-loads of arms and ammunition to the Balidogle airfield, west of Mogadishu, for distribution by Aideed to Ethiopian opposition forces based in Somalia. And the Addis Tribune reported on March 5 that, the previous week, an unidentified ship was spotted at the port of Merca, south of Mogadishu, unloading arms thought to be for Aideed. The arms reportedly included armored personnel carriers, as well as BRDM and Ferret type reconnaissance vehicles. The Mogadishu Times reported on March 8 that Ethiopian government officials held talks with USC-PM officials in Feerfeer, on the Ethiopian-Somali border north of Beled Weyne. According to sources cited by the Mogadishu Times, the meeting was in preparation for an Ethiopian offensive against some border districts of Somalia. On March 9, Somali National Front leader General Omer Haji Mohamed "Masale" claimed that an Ethiopian armored column crossed the border on March 7 near Balanballe, north of Feerfeer on the Ethiopian-Somali border in the Galguduud region. The troops allegedly looted Balanballe and kidnapped a local businessman before returning to Ethiopia on March 8. Eyewitnesses reported that the soldiers claimed to be chasing members of the fundamentalist Al-Itihad Al-Islam, an allegation repeated in the Mogadishu newspaper Ayaamaha on March 10, citing an Ethiopian government spokesman. The Ethiopian embassy in Nairobi denied Haji Mohamed's allegations, but did reserve the right to take steps against terrorist groups operating out of Somalia. Al-Itihad Al-Islam has been fighting to unite Ethiopia's Ogaden region, formerly Western Somalia, with Somalia. The London-based newspaper Al-Hayat on March 29 cited the head of the National Front for the Liberation of Ogaden (NFLO), Mohamed Umar Uthman, as stating that Addis Ababa's rejection of a dialogue with the NFLO left the group with no option but to intensify its military operations. Uthman denied his group had received military assistance from Eritrea, though he admitted the NFLO was in contact with Eritrea for political dialogue and i
