Re: [EVDL] MIT: Why the electric-car revolution may take a lot longer than expected

[Paul Compton via EV]

The materials in a Lead acid battery are up to 98% recyclable.

That is not same as 98% of Lead acid batteries being recycled.

On Wed, 20 Nov 2019 at 21:57, Bill Dube via EV  wrote:
>
>  The ~50% recycled percentage is steady-state. Same for 80% of raw
> lead going into battery production. These percentages have not changed
> substantially for 50 years. (The percentage of raw lead going into
> battery production has actually grown to more than 85% in recent years.)
>
>  In order for lead-acid battery recycling to be 95%, there would
> have to be 25% growth in the number of batteries in service (or storage,
> or whatever.) This is a _lot_ of batteries. _*One quarter*_ of _*all*_
> lead acid batteries produced every year! Two million tons of batteries.
>
>  There is simply no way that "nearly 100%" of lead acid batteries
> are recycled. It is a good story, but if you simply look at the lead
> industries own figures, it doesn't hold water.
>
> https://www.ila-lead.org/lead-facts/lead-production--statistics
> https://www.ila-lead.org/lead-facts/lead-uses--statistics
>
>  The key is that the percentage has remained the same for many many
> years. There aren't non-polluting "reservoirs", (like hoards of used
> batteries in homes,) that are building steady for years and years at
> 25%. Folks /eventually/ do "something" with dead lead-acid batteries.
> The truth is, many get tossed in the land fill, especially the smaller
> ones, like UPS batteries, emergency light batteries, alarm batteries, etc.
>
>  Bill D.
>
> On 11/21/2019 9:26 AM, Mr. Sharkey via EV wrote:
> > > More to the point, lead-acid batteries are not recycled at "nearly
> > 100%" as
> > > claimed. If you look at the numbers provided by the lead industry
> > itself, at
> > > _least_ 30% of them escape the recycling stream
> >
> > Hopefully, whoever does this sort of bean counting took into account
> > the number of batteries still in useful service, and adjusted for
> > those that are still installed in inoperable or stored equipment and
> > vehicles that will eventually return them for recycling.
> >
> > There is also a portion of lead, which includes batteries, that gets
> > shunted to other uses outside the recycling stream. Private reuse of
> > lead for ammunition, nautical ballast, etc might account for some of
> > the discrepancy. I suspect that there may also be some hoarding of
> > lead for speculative purposes, and by preppers who worry about the
> > zombie apocalypse
> >
> > With commodity prices being what they are, and active gathering and
> > recycling of scrap, including non-ferrous metals, by a wide selection
> > of citizenry, I can't see 30% of batteries being dumped in rivers, etc.
> >
> > Home Power magazine did a couple of in-depth, first-person articles on
> > lead battery recycling some years back. While not absolutely
> > definitive, it represents some independent research on the subject. If
> > anyone is interested, I can rip and post some PDF's or dig up links to
> > the articles on the HP web site.
> > ___
> > UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub
> > ARCHIVE: http://www.evdl.org/archive/index.html
> > INFO: http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org
> > Please discuss EV drag racing at NEDRA
> > (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
> >
> >
>
> -- next part --
> An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
> URL: 
> 
> ___
> UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub
> ARCHIVE: http://www.evdl.org/archive/index.html
> INFO: http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org
> Please discuss EV drag racing at NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
>


-- 
Paul Compton
www.morini-mania.co.uk
www.paulcompton.co.uk (YouTube channel)
___
UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub
ARCHIVE: http://www.evdl.org/archive/index.html
INFO: http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org
Please discuss EV drag racing at NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)

Re: [EVDL] MIT: Why the electric-car revolution may take a lot longer than expected

[Bill Dube via EV]

    The ~50% recycled percentage is steady-state. Same for 80% of raw 
lead going into battery production. These percentages have not changed 
substantially for 50 years. (The percentage of raw lead going into 
battery production has actually grown to more than 85% in recent years.)


    In order for lead-acid battery recycling to be 95%, there would 
have to be 25% growth in the number of batteries in service (or storage, 
or whatever.) This is a _lot_ of batteries. _*One quarter*_ of _*all*_ 
lead acid batteries produced every year! Two million tons of batteries.


    There is simply no way that "nearly 100%" of lead acid batteries 
are recycled. It is a good story, but if you simply look at the lead 
industries own figures, it doesn't hold water.


https://www.ila-lead.org/lead-facts/lead-production--statistics
https://www.ila-lead.org/lead-facts/lead-uses--statistics

    The key is that the percentage has remained the same for many many 
years. There aren't non-polluting "reservoirs", (like hoards of used 
batteries in homes,) that are building steady for years and years at 
25%. Folks /eventually/ do "something" with dead lead-acid batteries. 
The truth is, many get tossed in the land fill, especially the smaller 
ones, like UPS batteries, emergency light batteries, alarm batteries, etc.


    Bill D.

On 11/21/2019 9:26 AM, Mr. Sharkey via EV wrote:
> More to the point, lead-acid batteries are not recycled at "nearly 
100%" as
> claimed. If you look at the numbers provided by the lead industry 
itself, at

> _least_ 30% of them escape the recycling stream

Hopefully, whoever does this sort of bean counting took into account 
the number of batteries still in useful service, and adjusted for 
those that are still installed in inoperable or stored equipment and 
vehicles that will eventually return them for recycling.


There is also a portion of lead, which includes batteries, that gets 
shunted to other uses outside the recycling stream. Private reuse of 
lead for ammunition, nautical ballast, etc might account for some of 
the discrepancy. I suspect that there may also be some hoarding of 
lead for speculative purposes, and by preppers who worry about the 
zombie apocalypse


With commodity prices being what they are, and active gathering and 
recycling of scrap, including non-ferrous metals, by a wide selection 
of citizenry, I can't see 30% of batteries being dumped in rivers, etc.


Home Power magazine did a couple of in-depth, first-person articles on 
lead battery recycling some years back. While not absolutely 
definitive, it represents some independent research on the subject. If 
anyone is interested, I can rip and post some PDF's or dig up links to 
the articles on the HP web site.

___
UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub
ARCHIVE: http://www.evdl.org/archive/index.html
INFO: http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org
Please discuss EV drag racing at NEDRA 
(http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)





-- next part --
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: 

___
UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub
ARCHIVE: http://www.evdl.org/archive/index.html
INFO: http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org
Please discuss EV drag racing at NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)

Re: [EVDL] MIT: Why the electric-car revolution may take a lot longer than expected

[Mr. Sharkey via EV]

> More to the point, lead-acid batteries are not recycled at "nearly 100%" as
> claimed. If you look at the numbers provided by the lead industry 
itself, at

> _least_ 30% of them escape the recycling stream

Hopefully, whoever does this sort of bean counting took into account 
the number of batteries still in useful service, and adjusted for 
those that are still installed in inoperable or stored equipment and 
vehicles that will eventually return them for recycling.


There is also a portion of lead, which includes batteries, that gets 
shunted to other uses outside the recycling stream. Private reuse of 
lead for ammunition, nautical ballast, etc might account for some of 
the discrepancy. I suspect that there may also be some hoarding of 
lead for speculative purposes, and by preppers who worry about the 
zombie apocalypse


With commodity prices being what they are, and active gathering and 
recycling of scrap, including non-ferrous metals, by a wide selection 
of citizenry, I can't see 30% of batteries being dumped in rivers, etc.


Home Power magazine did a couple of in-depth, first-person articles 
on lead battery recycling some years back. While not absolutely 
definitive, it represents some independent research on the subject. 
If anyone is interested, I can rip and post some PDF's or dig up 
links to the articles on the HP web site. 


___
UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub
ARCHIVE: http://www.evdl.org/archive/index.html
INFO: http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org
Please discuss EV drag racing at NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)

Re: [EVDL] MIT: Why the electric-car revolution may take a lot longer than expected

[jkenny23 via EV]

Does this article also ignore that there will be scaling efficiencies for
even the raw material procurement/mining? Mines and foundries selling
materials for Li-Ion batteries would certainly want to scale to meet the
larger demand, and will probably find cheaper ways to make/procure
materials, unless they're just going to take advantage of the demand and
hike prices. 

Also not accounting for battery improvements and breakthroughs to reduce
material usage, or find cheaper materials to meet the same energy density.
Tesla and VW already claim they are near $100/kWH for cell level, is the
pack assembly really that much more expensive?

https://www.businessinsider.com/vw-electric-cars-battery-costs-versus-tesla-2019-9


--
Sent from: http://electric-vehicle-discussion-list.413529.n4.nabble.com/
___
UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub
ARCHIVE: http://www.evdl.org/archive/index.html
INFO: http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org
Please discuss EV drag racing at NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)

Re: [EVDL] MIT: Why the electric-car revolution may take a lot longer than expected

[EVDL Administrator via EV]

This report ignores the fact that EVs are mechanically much simpler than 
ICEVs.  A motor, controller, and single-speed transaxle should cost less 
than an ICE, ECU, and automatic transaxle, once the development costs are 
amortized.

Also, with battery leasing, it's also possible to shift the battery cost 
from part of the vehicle's up front cost to something more like fuel costs 
in an ICEV. It's pretty likely that ICEV fuel costs are going to rise over 
time.

The fact that a report comes from a  university doesn't say much about its 
credibility.  Anybody can start with a desired conclusion and work toward 
it.  I'm thinking of the infamous Carnegie-Mellon study in the 1990s that 
claimed that EVs would produce higher lead emissions than ICEVs fueled by 
leaded gasoline.  It turned out that C-M's researchers conveniently "forgot" 
to figure in battery recycling.  Oops!

Don't get me wrong; I don't mean to impugn MIT.  This study might be totally 
legit.  Just  make sure you check who funded it, and what the participants' 
previous activities suggest.

David Roden - Akron, Ohio, USA
EVDL Administrator

= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
EVDL Information: http://www.evdl.org/help/
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = 
Note: mail sent to "evpost" and "etpost" addresses will not 
reach me.  To send a private message, please obtain my 
email address from the webpage http://www.evdl.org/help/ .
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =


___
UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub
ARCHIVE: http://www.evdl.org/archive/index.html
INFO: http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org
Please discuss EV drag racing at NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)

[EVDL] MIT: Why the electric-car revolution may take a lot longer than expected

[moskowitz via EV]

Why the electric-car revolution may take a lot longer than expected

An MIT analysis finds that steady declines in battery costs will stall in the 
next few years.
by James Temple
Nov 19, 2019

Don’t expect electric cars and trucks to get as cheap as their gas-powered 
rivals anytime soon.

A new report from the MIT Energy Initiative warns that EVs may never reach the 
same sticker price so long as they rely on lithium-ion batteries, the energy 
storage technology that powers most of today’s consumer electronics. In fact, 
it’s likely to take another decade just to eliminate the difference in the 
lifetime costs between the vehicle categories, which factors in the higher fuel 
and maintenance expenses of standard cars and trucks.

The findings sharply contradict those of other research groups, which have 
concluded that electric vehicles could achieve price parity with gas-powered 
ones in the next five years. The lingering price difference predicted by the 
MIT report could stunt the transition to lower-emission vehicles, requiring 
governments to extend subsides or enact stricter mandates to achieve the same 
adoption of EVs and cuts in climate pollution.

Transportation is the largest source of greenhouse-gas emissions in the US and 
fourth largest globally, so there’s no way to achieve the reductions necessary 
to avoid dangerous levels of global warming without major shifts to cleaner 
vehicles and mass transit systems.

The problem is that the steady decline in the cost of lithium-ion batteries, 
which power electric vehicles and account for about a third of their total 
cost, is likely to slow in the next few years as they approach limits set by 
the cost of raw materials.

“If you follow some of these other projections, you basically end up with the 
cost of batteries being less than the ingredients required to make it,” says 
Randall Field, executive director of the Mobility of the Future group at MIT. 
“We see that as a flaw.”

The numbers

Current lithium-ion battery packs are estimated to cost from around $175 to 
$300 per kilowatt-hour. (A typical midrange EV has a 60/kWh battery pack.)

A number of commercial and academic researchers have projected that the costs 
of such batteries will reach $100/kWh by 2025 or before, which many proclaim is 
the “magic number” where EVs and gas-fueled vehicles reach retail price parity 
without subsidies. And they would continue to fall from there.

But reaching the $100 threshold by 2030 would require material costs to remain 
flat for the next decade, during a period when global demand for lithium-ion 
batteries is expected to rise sharply, the MIT reports notes. It projects that 
costs will likely fall only to $124 per kilowatt-hour by then. At that point, 
the “total cost of ownership” between the categories would be about the same, 
given the additional fuel and maintenance costs of gas-fueled vehicles. (Where 
these lines cross precisely depends heavily on local fuel costs, among other 
factors.)

But the sticker price of an EV with 200 miles of range would still run 
thousands of dollars more than a comparable gas-fueled vehicle in many areas. 
While closing the gap on total cost of ownership would be a solid step for 
electric vehicles, the average consumer is very sensitive to the upfront price 
tag—and what it equates to in monthly payments.

Costs are likely to continue to improve as, among other things, companies 
reduce the level of pricey cobalt in battery components and achieve 
manufacturing improvements as production volumes rise. But metals mining is 
already a mature process, so further declines there are likely to slow rapidly 
after 2025 as the cost of materials makes up a larger and larger portion of the 
total cost, the report finds.

Deeper cost declines beyond 2030 are likely to require shifts from the dominant 
lithium-ion chemistry today to entirely different technologies, like 
lithium-metal, solid-state and lithium-sulfur batteries. Each of these are 
still in much earlier development stages, so it’s questionable whether any will 
be able to displace lithium-ion by 2030, Field says.

Gene Berdichevsky, chief executive of anode materials maker Sila 
Nanotechnologies, agrees it will be hard for the industry to consistently break 
through the $100/kWh floor with current technology.

But he also thinks the paper discounts some of the nearer-term improvements 
we’ll see in lithium-ion batteries without full-fledged shifts to different 
chemistries. By 2030, Berdichevsky expects, battery packs will be able to store 
significantly more energy and last many more miles on the road, which can cut 
costs, improve performance, and otherwise boost the relative appeal of EVs.

Driving forward

The good news is a growing number of manufacturers around the world are moving 
into EVs, rolling out different models at different price points.

On Sunday, Ford unveiled an electric SUV set to hit showrooms next year, dubbed 
the Mustang Mach E.