RE: mo' FIN

2001-09-03 Thread Marchal

Jacques Mallah wrote:


 Actually I am still waiting to see the full UDA argument!  I don't
think you ever posted more than bits and pieces of it, without the precise 
definitions that I requested, and you referred people to papers written in 
French.  But I'll check ...


The full UDA appears at http://www.escribe.com/science/theory/m1726.html

A better more recent version is in the conversation with Joel Dobrzelewski:
see the main links at http://www.escribe.com/science/theory/m3044.html
(note also that some people on the list seems to arrive independently to
similar conclusions).

(The older version in the list was called P-omega experience.


I did explain my view, check the archive.  But don't say that I believe 
in what you call comp.  I never claimed to believe it, mainly because I 
have yet to see a clear definition of it.  I believe in computationalism, 
meaning that computations (effectively) give rise to consciousness.  The 
word survive appears nowhere in any definition of computationalism I
 might give.


You *did* accept my way of presenting comp (saying yes to the brain 
surgeon proposing an artificial digital brain/body made at *some* level of
description). You *do* give some meaning to survive, if only to prove us
that comp immortality (QTI) entails that we should find ourself older than
the expected age common for our species.


More precisely, I don't see any 1st person view, other than as a 
description of what an observer-moment experiences.  


That's not too bad, and it is enough for the UDA. (the translation
of the UDA in the language of a sound machine need a little more
rigorous definition, possible with G and G*, we will probably 
come to that later).


But the set of all such 
experiences is what the objective (which you might call 3rd person, but I 
don't) view describes.  The objective truth has all the information, which 
we should guess as best we can.


Both the thought experiences and the incompleteness phenomena can
be used for explaining why the objective truth cannot have all the
information. This is important and can be made completely precise.
(something different but related happens in quantum self-reference,
cf Albert's work).


You say me (and thus, the 1st person concept) can't be defined.  Maybe 
you have some idea of what you mean by it, but if you can't define it, 
there's no way you could ever convey that information to another person.  
that case, you might as well stop posting.


First babies cannot define milk but can convey information about
milk to another person. It is naive to believe we must define
all the terms of our talk for using them. Second:

me can be *both* interpreted from a 1 and 3 person pov. 
(pov = point of view).

me can be precisely defined from a 3 pov: through a bet on a level of
substitution.

The fact that me cannot be defined from a first person pov does not
entail that me cannot be made mathematically precise in a theory
of the 1 person.
I agree this is a subtil point (clearly ununderstood by people
like Penrose or Lucas).
We will see that the logic S4Grz is able to formalise the notion
of informal and unformalisable proof!!!  The trick is made simple once
you realise the gap between truth and provability (captured by the
gap between G and G* in the modal setting).
My problem: logic is not very well known, but then I explain all
details when people asks me so.


I have little doubt that you pull some questionable tricks 
in reaching that conclusion, but here we get into the technical 
part that you have never 
fully explained on this list, I believe.


Almost fully. The missing part are the non original part of my
thesis: mainly Godel, Lob, Solovay theorems. I have begin recently
a path toward such an explanation (diagonalisation 1:
http://www.escribe.com/science/theory/m3079.html).
I intend to go slowly but surely ...


[...]  You have never given a precise definition, but you 
always have the word survive in there, so maybe when you translate the 
implications of comp into precise mathematics you in effect are 
effectively assuming that conclusion from the start.


At some time I will explain that indeed there is no
possible precise definition of survive. Still the word has a
folk meaning precise *enough* to understand that comp entails the
reversal psycho/physics.
If you don't understand the word survive you should remain
silent about any mortality/immortality question. 
To believe in mortality = to believe there is an experience x such
that I don't survive x. To believe in immortality
is to believe that for all experience I survive x.
If you don't understand the word survive you should be agnostic
about FIN (your term). 

Now I agree with you: it can be argued that the immortality is build
in in comp. No problem with that. You should show then comp being
false or inconsistent.


It's not meant to be comical.  Scientists always doubt that 
they really have the complete right answer, but one the other hand, 
it is 

RE: FIN too

2001-09-03 Thread Charles Goodwin

Oh, I forgot my main problem with QTI :-)

Basically it's to do with the rate at which decoherence spreads (presumably at the 
speed of light?) and the finite time it takes
someone to die. So if you were shot (say) the QTI would predict that there was some 
point in the process of your body ceasing to
operate at which some unlikely quantum processes separated branches of the multiverse 
in which you died to ones in which you
remained alive (forever, presumably). The problem is working out exactly where that 
happens (I suspect it gets worse if you include
relativistic considerations).

Another question is what happens in cases of very violent death, e.g. beheading. After 
someone's head is cut off, so they say, it
remains conscious for a few seconds (I can't see why it wouldn't). According to QTI it 
experiences being decapitated but then
survives indefinitely - somehow . . . well, I'd like to hear what QTI supporters think 
happens next (from the pov of the victim).
Are they magically translated into a non-decapitated version of themselves, and if so, 
how? Surely it can't be in the same quantum
state that they're in? If not, do they experience indefinitely continued survival as a 
severed head, or . . . what??? Just curious!

Charles

 -Original Message-
 From: Charles Goodwin [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]
 Sent: Tuesday, 4 September 2001 1:42 p.m.
 To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
 Subject: RE: FIN too


 Um, OK, I don't want to get into an infinite argument here. I
 guess we both understand the other's viewpoint. (For the record: I
 don't see any reason to accept QTI as correct, but think that
 *if* it is, it would fit in with the available (subjective)
 observational evidence - that being the point on which we
 differ. I also think that for QTI to be correct, a number of
 other things
 would have to hold - space-time would have to be quantised,
 objects in the same quantum state would have to be literally identical
 (no matter where they happened to be in the uni/multiverse) .
 . . and, either the multiverse has to exist, or our universe has to be
 infinite . . . and probably a few other points I can't think
 of right now!)

 Charles

  -Original Message-
  From: Jacques Mallah [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]
  Sent: Tuesday, 4 September 2001 1:12 p.m.
  To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
  Subject: RE: FIN too
 
 
  From: Charles Goodwin [EMAIL PROTECTED]
  [Jacques Mallah wrote]
But there's one exception: your brain can only hold a
  limited amount
  of information.  So it's possible to be too old to remember
  how old you
  are.  *Only if you are that old, do you have a right to not
  reject FIN on
  these grounds.*  Are you that old?
  
  Yeah, that's one of my objections to QTI. Although perhaps
  add-on memory
  chips will become available one day :-)
 
  OK.  (And even if the chips become available, you'd
  probably only be
  able to add a finite # before collapsing into a black hole.)
 
Right.  Do you think you are in an infinitesimal
fraction, or in a typical fraction?
  
  Infinitesimal, if QTI is correct, otherwise fairly typical.
  Assuming QTI is
  correct and ignoring any other objections to it, it's
  *possible* for me to
  be in an infinitesimal fraction - in fact it's necessary.
 
  Right - which is why Bayesian reasoning falsifies FIN,
  but only with
  100% reliability as opposed to complete reliability.
 
  but according to QTI I *must* pass through a phase when I
  see the unlikely
  bits, no matter how unlikely it is that a typical moment
  will fall into
  that phase. Even if I later spend 99.999% of my
  observer moments seeing the stars going out one by one,
  there still has to
  be that starting point!
 
  Right, again, that's why the reliability is just 100%.
 
  My (ahem) point is, though, that none of us ARE at a typical
  point (again,
  assuming QTI). In fact we're in a very atypical point, just
  as the era of
  stars might be a very atypical point in the history of the
  universe - but
  it's a point we (or the universe) HAVE TO PASS THROUGH to
 reach more
  typical points (e.g. very old, no stars left...). Hence it's
  consistent
  with QTI that we find ourselves passing through this point...
 
  Right, consistent with it but only 0% of the time, hence
  the Bayesian
  argument is to put 0 credence in the FIN rather than strictly
  no credence.
 
  I'm not arguing for QTI here, but I do think that you can't
  argue from
  finding yourself at a particular point on your world-line to that
  world-line having finite length, because you are guaranteed to find
  yourself at that particular point at some (ah) point.
 
  Right, which is why I'm (now) careful not to make *that*
  argument by
  arbritarily using one's current age to base a reference point
  on.  (e.g. in
  my reply to Bruno.)  Rather, I argue that from being at a
  point prior to
  some _natural reference point_ such as the can calculate my
  age crierion,
  one 

Re: FIN insanity

2001-09-03 Thread Saibal Mitra

Jacques Mallah wrote:

 From: Saibal Mitra [EMAIL PROTECTED]
 There are different versions of QTI (let's not call it FIN).

 I'm certainly not going to call it a theory.  Doing so lends it an a
 priori aura of legitimacy.  Words mean things, as Newt Gingrich once said
in
 one of his smarter moments.

 The most reasonable one (my version, of course) takes into account the
 possibility that you find yourself alive somewhere else in the universe,
 without any memory of the atomic bomb that exploded. I totally ignore the
 possibility that one could survive an atomic bomb exploding above one's
 head.  My version doesn't imply that your a priory expected lifetime
should
 be infinite.

 Your version may not imply immortality, but I don't really see how
it's
 different from other versions (and thus why it doesn't).

As I have written before, a person is just a computation being implemented
somewhere. Suppose that the person has discovered that he suffers from a
terminal ilness and he dies (the computation ends). Now in principle the
person in question could have lived on if he wasn't diagnosed with this
terminal ilness. Somewhere in the multiverse this person exists. Some time
ago I wrote (I think on the FoR list) that the transformation from the old
dying person to the new person is a continuous one. The process of death
must involve the destruction of the brain. At some time the information
that the person is dying will be lost to the person. The person might even
think he is 20 years old while in reality he is 92. Anyway, the point is
that his brain had stored so much information that adding new information
would lead to an inconsistency. By dumping some of the information, the
information left  will be identical to the information in a similar brain
somewhere else of a younger person, free from disease.


 I say:
 1) If you are hurt in a car accident and the surgeon performes brain
 surgery and you recover fully, then you are the same person.

 OK, that's merely a matter of definition though.

 2) You would also be the same person if the surgeon made a new brain
 identically to yours.

 I'm not sure what you mean here.  The new brain would be the same as
the
 old you, the old one would remain the same, the old one was destroyed, or
 what?


Well, suppose that the damaged brain contains enough information to
reconstruct the original one. It doesn't matter if you repair the old one or
create a new one.

 3) From 2) it follows that if your brain was first copied and then
 destroyed, you would become the copy.

 A matter of definition agin, but let me point out something important.
 If your brain is copied, then there is a causal link between the old brain
 and any copies.  Thus it's quite possible for an extended implementation
of
 a computation to start out in the old brain and end up in the copy,
without
 violating the requirement that implementations obey the proper direct
causal
 laws.

 4) From 3) you can thus conclude that you will always experience yourself
 being alive, because copies of you always exist.

 I don't see how 4 is supposed to follow from 3.  In any case, it's
 certainly not true that copies of you always exist.  Rather, people who
are
 structurally identical do exist, but they are not copies as they are not
 causally linked.  Even if they were linked in the past, they have diverged
 on the level of causal relationships between your brain parts vs. their
 brain parts.


I don't understand why it is necessary for one person to qualify as a copy
of another iff there is a causal link.


 5) It doesn't follow that you will experience surviving terrible
accidents.

 If 4 were true, I don't see how 5 could be true.
5) is true because you can survive with memory loss (see above). You would
be killed, but copies of you exist that never experienced the accident.

Saibal






RE: FIN

2001-09-03 Thread Charles Goodwin

Hi, I'm sorry, it's an accident. I keep hitting 'reply' rather than 'reply to all' and 
because of the way the list is set up, which
means I reply to the person who posted the message. It's a bad habit, because other 
lists I post to allow you to just hit 'reply'
and your message goes to the list. There's something in the email header which tells 
it where to send the reply to, apparently

Apologies to anyone I've replied to directly, it wasn't intentional.

Charles

 -Original Message-
 From: Brent Meeker [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]
 Sent: Sunday, 2 September 2001 6:59 a.m.
 To: Everything-list
 Subject: Re: FIN


 Hello Jacques

 On 01-Sep-01, Jacques Mallah wrote:
 Hello. (This is not posted to the list as you just replied to me
  directly. If that was unintentional you can sent replies to
 the list,
  I'm just pointing it out.)
 
 Ok, although I would say to be more precise that you should
  identify yourself with an implementation of a computation. A
  computation must be performed (implemented) for it to give rise to
  consciousness.
 
  This seems incoherent. What's the point of a computational
  explanation of the world if it requires that the computation be
  implemented...in some super-world?
 
 The basic computational explanation is not of the world - it's of
  conscious observations. As for the arena where things get
 implemented
  - that could either be a physical world, or it could be
 Plato's realm
  of math.
   Either way makes little difference for these issues, but surely at
  least one of those exists.

 That an implementation might be in another physical world I can
 understand.

 I don't see how an implementation can be in Plato's realm of
 mathematics.  In mathematics there are axioms and theorems
 and proofs -
 none of these imply any occurence in time. You might be able to impose
 an order on theorems (ala' Godel) and it might be possible to identify
 this with time (although I doubt this can work), but even so
 it is just
 a single order that is implicit - there is no way to distinguish two
 different implementations of this order.

 Brent Meeker
  The universe we observe has precisely the properties we should expect
 if there
 is, at bottom, no design, no purpose, no evil and no good, nothing but
 blind
 pitiless indifference.


   ---Richard Dawkins, River Out of Eden




FW: FIN insanity

2001-09-03 Thread Charles Goodwin

 -Original Message-
 From: Saibal Mitra [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]

 There are different versions of QTI (let's not call it FIN). The most
 reasonable one (my version, of course) takes into account the possibility
 that you find yourself alive somewhere else in the universe, without any
 memory of the atomic bomb that exploded. I totally ignore the possibility
 that one could survive an atomic bomb exploding above one's head.  My
 version doesn't imply that your a priory expected lifetime should be
 infinite.

 Death involves the destruction of your brain. But there are many brains in
 the universe which are almost identical to yours. Jacques says that you
 can't become one of them.

 I say:

 1) If you are hurt in a car accident and the surgeon performes brain surgery
 and you recover fully, then you are the same person.

 2) You would also be the same person if the surgeon made a new brain identically to 
yours.

 3) From 2) it follows that if your brain was first copied and then destroyed, you 
would become the copy.

 4) From 3) you can thus conclude that you will always experience yourself being 
alive, because copies of you always exist.

 5) It doesn't follow that you will experience surviving terrible accidents.

 Saibal

Ok, that's a similar argument to the one Frank Tipler used in 'The physics of 
immortality' (except that he allowed a simulation of a
brain to have continuous consciousness with the original physical brain). Your version 
is more reasonable that Tiplers, imo, because
it only assumes that 2 objects in the same quantum state *are* the same object (rather 
than an object and its simulation). There
will almost certainly be objects in the same quantum state if the universe is infinite 
OR the MWI is correct, AND space-time really
is quantised, AND quantum-identical objects really *are* the same object.

This seems like a reasonable theory on the face of it. Hard to prove, though, unless 
you've had personal experience of living a
*very* long time

Charles




FW: FIN too

2001-09-03 Thread Charles Goodwin

 -Original Message-
 From: Jacques Mallah [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]

 The problem is that the probability isn't 0% that you'd find yourself at
 your current age (according to the QTI - assume I put that after every
 sentence!).  Because you HAVE to pass through your current age to reach
 QTI-type ages, the probability of finding yourself at your current age at
 some point is 100%.

 At some point, yes.  At a typical point? 0%.

My (ahem) point is, though, that none of us ARE at a typical point (again, assuming 
QTI). In fact we're in a very atypical point,
just as the era of stars might be a very atypical point in the history of the 
universe - but it's a point we (or the universe)
HAVE TO PASS THROUGH to reach more typical points (e.g. very old, no stars left...). 
Hence it's consistent with QTI that we find
ourselves passing through this point...

I'm not arguing for QTI here, but I do think that you can't argue from finding 
yourself at a particular point on your world-line to
that world-line having finite length, because you are guaranteed to find yourself at 
that particular point at some (ah) point. So
I'm rejecting, not Bayesian logic per se, but the application of it to what (according 
to QTI) would be a very special (but still
allowable) case.

The basic problem is that we experience observer moments as a sequence. Hence we 
*must* experience the earlier moments before the
later ones, and if we happen to come across QTI before we reach QTI-like observer 
moments then we might reject it for lack of
(subjective) evidence. But that doesn't contradict QTI, which predicts that we have to 
pass through these earlier moments, and that
we will observe everyone else doing so as well.

I wish I could put that more clearly, or think of a decent analogy, but do you see 
what I mean? Our observations aren't actually
*incompatible* with QTI, even if they do only cover an infinitsimal chunk of our total 
observer moments.

Charles




Re: plato

2001-09-03 Thread Jacques Mallah

From: Brent Meeker [EMAIL PROTECTED]
On 01-Sep-01, Jacques Mallah wrote:
 There is more than that in mathematics. Structures, for example.
  Anything that could be described mathematically, such as geometries,
  computations, and anything that could be a model of a (hypothetical)
  world. There's plenty of room for implementations there.

Even structures in mathematics, e.g. an isocolese triangle, or a set of
partial differential equations with boundary conditions are either
different or they are identical (and hence indistinguishable).  I don't
see how they can be regarded as different implementations of the same
structures or theorems.  We only speak of different implementations
because we can run the same program on two different computers, we can
write down the same theorems on two different pieces of paper.  In the
Platonic realm two things that are mathematically identical are
absolutely identical and hence are the same thing.

There is plenty of room in Plato's kitchen, though.  For example the 
structure that physicists think best describes our universe is in there.  
Different parts of that structure are not identical, but they can implement 
the same (type of) computation as other parts.

 - - - - - - -
   Jacques Mallah ([EMAIL PROTECTED])
 Physicist  /  Many Worlder  /  Devil's Advocate
I know what no one else knows - 'Runaway Train', Soul Asylum
 My URL: http://hammer.prohosting.com/~mathmind/

_
Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com/intl.asp




RE: FIN too

2001-09-03 Thread Jacques Mallah

From: Charles Goodwin [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Um, OK, I don't want to get into an infinite argument here. I guess we both 
understand the other's viewpoint. (For the record: I don't see any reason 
to accept QTI as correct, but think that *if* it is, it would fit in with 
the available (subjective) observational evidence - that being the point on 
which we differ.

Um, no, I still don't understand your view.  I think the point that 
Bayesian reasoning would work with 100% reliability, even though the FIN is 
technically compatible with the evidence, is perfectly clear.  Any reason 
for disagreeing, I have no understanding of.
It may help you to think of different moments of your life as being 
different observers (observer-moments).  That's really just a matter of 
definition.

 - - - - - - -
   Jacques Mallah ([EMAIL PROTECTED])
 Physicist  /  Many Worlder  /  Devil's Advocate
I know what no one else knows - 'Runaway Train', Soul Asylum
 My URL: http://hammer.prohosting.com/~mathmind/

_
Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com/intl.asp




RE: FIN too

2001-09-03 Thread Charles Goodwin

 -Original Message-
 From: Russell Standish [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]

 This case bothers me too. The initial (or perhaps traditional)
 response is that consciousness is lost the instant blood pressure
 drops in the brain, a few hundred milliseconds after the neck is
 severed, thus the beheading is not experienced. However, there is some
 anecdotal evidence (eg the beheading of Lavoisier) that consciousness
 can survive up to 10-20 seconds after the neck is severed.

 Even if this is true, it still does not eliminate magical solutions,
 such as waking up Matrix-style in an alternative reality.

Yesor in a tipler style afterlife inside some megacomputer trillions of years in 
the future (or equivalently, I suppose,
somewhere else in the multiverse). Definitely starts to sound like an act of faith to 
believe that's what would happen, though

Even if you lost consciousness a split second after having your head removed, QTI 
would still have to explain how you got from
'immediately after being beheaded' to anywhere else...!

Charles




Re: FIN too

2001-09-03 Thread Russell Standish

Charles Goodwin wrote:
 
 Another question is what happens in cases of very violent death, e.g. beheading. 
After someone's head is cut off, so they say, it
 remains conscious for a few seconds (I can't see why it wouldn't). According to QTI 
it experiences being decapitated but then
 survives indefinitely - somehow . . . well, I'd like to hear what QTI supporters 
think happens next (from the pov of the victim).
 Are they magically translated into a non-decapitated version of themselves, and if 
so, how? Surely it can't be in the same quantum
 state that they're in? If not, do they experience indefinitely continued survival as 
a severed head, or . . . what??? Just curious!
 
 Charles

This case bothers me too. The initial (or perhaps traditional)
response is that consciousness is lost the instant blood pressure
drops in the brain, a few hundred milliseconds after the neck is
severed, thus the beheading is not experienced. However, there is some
anecdotal evidence (eg the beheading of Lavoisier) that consciousness
can survive up to 10-20 seconds after the neck is severed.

Even if this is true, it still does not eliminate magical solutions,
such as waking up Matrix-style in an alternative reality.

Cheers



Dr. Russell Standish Director
High Performance Computing Support Unit, Phone 9385 6967, 8308 3119 (mobile)
UNSW SYDNEY 2052 Fax   9385 6965, 0425 253119 ()
Australia[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
Room 2075, Red Centrehttp://parallel.hpc.unsw.edu.au/rks
International prefix  +612, Interstate prefix 02





RE: FIN too

2001-09-03 Thread hal

Charles Goodwin, [EMAIL PROTECTED], writes:

 Another question is what happens in cases of very violent death,
 e.g. beheading. After someone's head is cut off, so they say, it remains
 conscious for a few seconds (I can't see why it wouldn't). According to
 QTI it experiences being decapitated but then survives indefinitely -
 somehow . . . well, I'd like to hear what QTI supporters think happens
 next (from the pov of the victim).  Are they magically translated into
 a non-decapitated version of themselves, and if so, how? Surely it can't
 be in the same quantum state that they're in? If not, do they experience
 indefinitely continued survival as a severed head, or . . . what??? Just
 curious!

The answer is very simple.  The future that is experienced is the least
unlikely that allows for continuation of consciousness.  (More precisely,
the probability distribution over those futures where you are still
alive determines the relative probability of experience given that you
find yourself alive, a tautology.)

So, your head has been cut off and clunk, you fall on the ground,
getting a nasty knock on the head, not to mention the neck soreness and
missing body.  How could you survive?  There are several alternatives.

It is possible that entropy ceases to operate in your brain, and that
you continue to think despite the loss of blood flow.  This however would
be an astronomically unlikely future.

More likely, aliens or supernatural intelligences of some sort would
intervene to keep you alive.  Alternatively, it would turn out that
you were playing a futuristic video game where you had temporarily
blanked out your memory to make it more realistic.  Then next thing
you see is Game Over.

These possibilities makes most sense if you consider the set of all
physical systems where you have the same mental state, rather than
just the systems which are part of your corner of the QM multiverse.
There are universes where aliens are monitoring the earth, unknown to
its inhabitants, and the mental states of residents of earth in such
universes will be identical to the states of people in some other
universes without aliens.

When you find yourself with head chopped off, you don't know which
class of universe you are in.  I would argue that there is no fact
of the matter about it (this is our old argument about whether
your consciousness is tied to a specific instance of the many which
instantiate it).  Hence you will experience the most likely continuation
which is consistent with your mental experiences in any branch of the
QM universe which could produce that experience.

I think we all agree with the objective facts of the situation here.
For any observer moment there exist other observer moments which are
subjectively in its future (equivalently, for which it is subjectively
in the past).  The question is whether to interpret this fact as meaning
continued survival.  Ultimately that is a matter of definitions.

Hal Finney




RE: FIN too

2001-09-03 Thread Jacques Mallah

From: Charles Goodwin [EMAIL PROTECTED]
[Jacques Mallah wrote]
  But there's one exception: your brain can only hold a limited amount 
of information.  So it's possible to be too old to remember how old you 
are.  *Only if you are that old, do you have a right to not reject FIN on 
these grounds.*  Are you that old?

Yeah, that's one of my objections to QTI. Although perhaps add-on memory 
chips will become available one day :-)

OK.  (And even if the chips become available, you'd probably only be 
able to add a finite # before collapsing into a black hole.)

  Right.  Do you think you are in an infinitesimal
  fraction, or in a typical fraction?

Infinitesimal, if QTI is correct, otherwise fairly typical. Assuming QTI is 
correct and ignoring any other objections to it, it's *possible* for me to 
be in an infinitesimal fraction - in fact it's necessary.

Right - which is why Bayesian reasoning falsifies FIN, but only with 
100% reliability as opposed to complete reliability.

but according to QTI I *must* pass through a phase when I see the unlikely 
bits, no matter how unlikely it is that a typical moment will fall into 
that phase. Even if I later spend 99.999% of my 
observer moments seeing the stars going out one by one, there still has to 
be that starting point!

Right, again, that's why the reliability is just 100%.

My (ahem) point is, though, that none of us ARE at a typical point (again, 
assuming QTI). In fact we're in a very atypical point, just as the era of 
stars might be a very atypical point in the history of the universe - but 
it's a point we (or the universe) HAVE TO PASS THROUGH to reach more 
typical points (e.g. very old, no stars left...). Hence it's consistent 
with QTI that we find ourselves passing through this point...

Right, consistent with it but only 0% of the time, hence the Bayesian 
argument is to put 0 credence in the FIN rather than strictly no credence.

I'm not arguing for QTI here, but I do think that you can't argue from 
finding yourself at a particular point on your world-line to that 
world-line having finite length, because you are guaranteed to find 
yourself at that particular point at some (ah) point.

Right, which is why I'm (now) careful not to make *that* argument by 
arbritarily using one's current age to base a reference point on.  (e.g. in 
my reply to Bruno.)  Rather, I argue that from being at a point prior to 
some _natural reference point_ such as the can calculate my age crierion, 
one can conclude that one's world-line is finite.

So I'm rejecting, not Bayesian logic per se, but the application of it to 
what (according to QTI) would be a very special (but still allowable) case.

There are no grounds to reject it in this case, since it would be 
reliable almost all of the time.  There's no difference between using a 
method because it works for most people vs. using a method because it works 
for me most of the time.  At any given time, it works for most people, too.

The basic problem is that we experience observer moments as a sequence. 
Hence we *must* experience the earlier moments before the later ones, and 
if we happen to come across QTI before we reach QTI-like observer moments 
then we might reject it for lack of (subjective) evidence. But that doesn't 
contradict QTI, which predicts that we have to pass through these earlier 
moments, and that we will observe everyone else doing so as well.

I wish I could put that more clearly, or think of a decent analogy, but do 
you see what I mean? Our observations aren't actually *incompatible* with 
QTI, even if they do only cover an infinitsimal chunk of our total observer 
moments.

Indeed so, I know only too well what you mean.  This has come up more 
than once on the list.
I hope you understand why I say it's irrelevant.  _Just like_ in the A/B 
case, it would be wrong to not use Bayesian reasoning just because seeing A 
is, yes, compatible with both #1 and #2.  Seeing A could even have been a 
way to confirm theory #2, if the rival theory #1 hadn't existed.  The bottom 
line is that Bayesian reasoning usually works for most people.

 - - - - - - -
   Jacques Mallah ([EMAIL PROTECTED])
 Physicist  /  Many Worlder  /  Devil's Advocate
I know what no one else knows - 'Runaway Train', Soul Asylum
 My URL: http://hammer.prohosting.com/~mathmind/

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