Re: NYTimes.com: In Washington, Putin’s Nuclear Threats Stir Growing Alarm

[Lawrence Crowell]

On Monday, October 3, 2022 at 7:58:10 PM UTC-5 meeke...@gmail.com wrote:

>
>
> On 10/3/2022 5:32 PM, Lawrence Crowell wrote:
>
> On Monday, October 3, 2022 at 6:41:58 PM UTC-5 meeke...@gmail.com wrote:
>
>>
>>
>> On 10/3/2022 4:11 PM, Lawrence Crowell wrote:
>>
>> On Monday, October 3, 2022 at 5:02:56 AM UTC-5 johnk...@gmail.com wrote:
>>
>>> On Mon, Oct 3, 2022 at 12:07 AM Brent Meeker  wrote:
>>>
>>> * > Yes that's one way it could go bad.  But there's also the case that 
 they literally don't work. *

>>>
>>> Unfortunately I think there is little chance that Russian H-bombs won't 
>>> explode because it's not that difficult to maintain them; Plutonium 239 has 
>>> a halflife of 24,000 years, U235 has a half life of over 700 million years, 
>>> and lithium-6 deuteride is stable. It's true that modern H-bombs also have 
>>> a very small amount  of the hydrogen isotope tritium and it's half life is 
>>> only 12 years but it will explode without tritium just with a somewhat 
>>> reduced yield, and the chemical explosive used to initiate the implosion 
>>> could become unstable after a few decades and would need to be replaced 
>>> with fresh explosives, but I have a hunch if there is anything in Russia 
>>> that is well-maintained it is their nuclear bombs. And since Ukraine is 
>>> right on the Russian border a delivery system for such bombs is not really 
>>> an issue.  
>>>  
>>> John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at  Extropolis 
>>> 
>>>
>>
>> Plutonium pits have to be cycled every few years, where after 10 years 
>> their effectiveness is very reduced. It is not because the nuclei of 
>> plutonium has decayed, but the crystalline structure of the plutonium is 
>> not longer the optimal allotrope. The implosive collapse of the pit is not 
>> as effective at starting a fission chain reaction. There is a duty cycle on 
>> the plutonium that has to be remelted and metallurgically reconfigured.
>>
>>
>> And could a general skim off the money intended for this recycling and 
>> become very rich?
>>
>> Brent
>>
>
> That is how the Afghanistan fell. Officers and administrators were 
> stealing the equipment, for sale often to the Taliban, and pocketing the 
> pay. In fact with the fall of the Roman Empire, there were legions more 
> than capable of repelling the Visigoths that crossed the Rhine and 
> ultimately sacked Rome in 410 AD. The problem is the legionnaires had not 
> been paid and they refused orders.
>
>
> My point exactly.  But think how it might make Putin more dangerous if he 
> wasn't sure he could rely on his nuclear deterrent.
>
> Brent
>

One of Clancey's novels involved a scenario where the entire Russian 
nuclear system turned out to be a massive dud. The story did not involve a 
war with Russia, but where it was found that largely the post-Soviet 
nuclear armed systems were mostly crap. It is hard to know how Putin would 
behave. If he knew the Russian nuclear system is trash, he might be 
reluctant to carry out a threat to it end in a game of nuclear chicken. He 
might prove to the world that Russia is the latter day Ottoman "sick man of 
the world." This is if he is rational, which I am not sure of. If he were 
smart he would cut his loses and end this war. The referendums and other 
events illustrate he is digging his heels in deeper. 

LC 

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Re: NYTimes.com: In Washington, Putin’s Nuclear Threats Stir Growing Alarm

[Brent Meeker]

On 10/3/2022 5:32 PM, Lawrence Crowell wrote:

On Monday, October 3, 2022 at 6:41:58 PM UTC-5 meeke...@gmail.com wrote:



On 10/3/2022 4:11 PM, Lawrence Crowell wrote:

On Monday, October 3, 2022 at 5:02:56 AM UTC-5 johnk...@gmail.com
wrote:

On Mon, Oct 3, 2022 at 12:07 AM Brent Meeker
 wrote:

/> Yes that's one way it could go bad. But there's also
the case that they literally don't work. /


Unfortunately I think there is little chance that Russian
H-bombs won't explode because it's not that difficult to
maintain them; Plutonium 239 has a halflife of 24,000 years,
U235 has a half life of over 700 million years, and lithium-6
deuteride is stable. It's true that modern H-bombs also have
a very small amount  of the hydrogen isotope tritium and it's
half life is only 12 years but it will explode without
tritium just with a somewhat reduced yield, and the chemical
explosive used to initiate the implosion could become
unstable after a few decades and would need to be replaced
with fresh explosives, but I have a hunch if there is
anything in Russia that is well-maintained it is their
nuclear bombs. And since Ukraine is right on the Russian
border a delivery system for such bombs is not really an issue.
John K Clark    See what's on my new list at Extropolis



Plutonium pits have to be cycled every few years, where after 10
years their effectiveness is very reduced. It is not because the
nuclei of plutonium has decayed, but the crystalline structure of
the plutonium is not longer the optimal allotrope. The implosive
collapse of the pit is not as effective at starting a fission
chain reaction. There is a duty cycle on the plutonium that has
to be remelted and metallurgically reconfigured.


And could a general skim off the money intended for this recycling
and become very rich?

Brent


That is how the Afghanistan fell. Officers and administrators were 
stealing the equipment, for sale often to the Taliban, and pocketing 
the pay. In fact with the fall of the Roman Empire, there were legions 
more than capable of repelling the Visigoths that crossed the Rhine 
and ultimately sacked Rome in 410 AD. The problem is the legionnaires 
had not been paid and they refused orders.


My point exactly.  But think how it might make Putin more dangerous if 
he wasn't sure he could rely on his nuclear deterrent.


Brent

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Re: NYTimes.com: In Washington, Putin’s Nuclear Threats Stir Growing Alarm

[Lawrence Crowell]

On Monday, October 3, 2022 at 6:41:58 PM UTC-5 meeke...@gmail.com wrote:

>
>
> On 10/3/2022 4:11 PM, Lawrence Crowell wrote:
>
> On Monday, October 3, 2022 at 5:02:56 AM UTC-5 johnk...@gmail.com wrote:
>
>> On Mon, Oct 3, 2022 at 12:07 AM Brent Meeker  wrote:
>>
>> * > Yes that's one way it could go bad.  But there's also the case that 
>>> they literally don't work. *
>>>
>>
>> Unfortunately I think there is little chance that Russian H-bombs won't 
>> explode because it's not that difficult to maintain them; Plutonium 239 has 
>> a halflife of 24,000 years, U235 has a half life of over 700 million years, 
>> and lithium-6 deuteride is stable. It's true that modern H-bombs also have 
>> a very small amount  of the hydrogen isotope tritium and it's half life is 
>> only 12 years but it will explode without tritium just with a somewhat 
>> reduced yield, and the chemical explosive used to initiate the implosion 
>> could become unstable after a few decades and would need to be replaced 
>> with fresh explosives, but I have a hunch if there is anything in Russia 
>> that is well-maintained it is their nuclear bombs. And since Ukraine is 
>> right on the Russian border a delivery system for such bombs is not really 
>> an issue.  
>>  
>> John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at  Extropolis 
>> 
>>
>
> Plutonium pits have to be cycled every few years, where after 10 years 
> their effectiveness is very reduced. It is not because the nuclei of 
> plutonium has decayed, but the crystalline structure of the plutonium is 
> not longer the optimal allotrope. The implosive collapse of the pit is not 
> as effective at starting a fission chain reaction. There is a duty cycle on 
> the plutonium that has to be remelted and metallurgically reconfigured.
>
>
> And could a general skim off the money intended for this recycling and 
> become very rich?
>
> Brent
>

That is how the Afghanistan fell. Officers and administrators were stealing 
the equipment, for sale often to the Taliban, and pocketing the pay. In 
fact with the fall of the Roman Empire, there were legions more than 
capable of repelling the Visigoths that crossed the Rhine and ultimately 
sacked Rome in 410 AD. The problem is the legionnaires had not been paid 
and they refused orders.

LC

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Re: NYTimes.com: In Washington, Putin’s Nuclear Threats Stir Growing Alarm

[Brent Meeker]

On 10/3/2022 4:11 PM, Lawrence Crowell wrote:

On Monday, October 3, 2022 at 5:02:56 AM UTC-5 johnk...@gmail.com wrote:

On Mon, Oct 3, 2022 at 12:07 AM Brent Meeker 
wrote:

/> Yes that's one way it could go bad.  But there's also the
case that they literally don't work. /


Unfortunately I think there is little chance that Russian H-bombs
won't explode because it's not that difficult to maintain them;
Plutonium 239 has a halflife of 24,000 years, U235 has a half life
of over 700 million years, and lithium-6 deuteride is stable. It's
true that modern H-bombs also have a very small amount  of the
hydrogen isotope tritium and it's half life is only 12 years but
it will explode without tritium just with a somewhat reduced
yield, and the chemical explosive used to initiate the implosion
could become unstable after a few decades and would need to be
replaced with fresh explosives, but I have a hunch if there is
anything in Russia that is well-maintained it is their nuclear
bombs. And since Ukraine is right on the Russian border a delivery
system for such bombs is not really an issue.
John K Clark    See what's on my new list at Extropolis



Plutonium pits have to be cycled every few years, where after 10 years 
their effectiveness is very reduced. It is not because the nuclei of 
plutonium has decayed, but the crystalline structure of the plutonium 
is not longer the optimal allotrope. The implosive collapse of the pit 
is not as effective at starting a fission chain reaction. There is a 
duty cycle on the plutonium that has to be remelted and 
metallurgically reconfigured.


And could a general skim off the money intended for this recycling and 
become very rich?


Brent

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Re: NYTimes.com: In Washington, Putin’s Nuclear Threats Stir Growing Alarm

[Lawrence Crowell]

On Monday, October 3, 2022 at 5:02:56 AM UTC-5 johnk...@gmail.com wrote:

> On Mon, Oct 3, 2022 at 12:07 AM Brent Meeker  wrote:
>
> * > Yes that's one way it could go bad.  But there's also the case that 
>> they literally don't work. *
>>
>
> Unfortunately I think there is little chance that Russian H-bombs won't 
> explode because it's not that difficult to maintain them; Plutonium 239 has 
> a halflife of 24,000 years, U235 has a half life of over 700 million years, 
> and lithium-6 deuteride is stable. It's true that modern H-bombs also have 
> a very small amount  of the hydrogen isotope tritium and it's half life is 
> only 12 years but it will explode without tritium just with a somewhat 
> reduced yield, and the chemical explosive used to initiate the implosion 
> could become unstable after a few decades and would need to be replaced 
> with fresh explosives, but I have a hunch if there is anything in Russia 
> that is well-maintained it is their nuclear bombs. And since Ukraine is 
> right on the Russian border a delivery system for such bombs is not really 
> an issue.  
>  
> John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at  Extropolis 
> 
>

Plutonium pits have to be cycled every few years, where after 10 years 
their effectiveness is very reduced. It is not because the nuclei of 
plutonium has decayed, but the crystalline structure of the plutonium is 
not longer the optimal allotrope. The implosive collapse of the pit is not 
as effective at starting a fission chain reaction. There is a duty cycle on 
the plutonium that has to be remelted and metallurgically reconfigured.

LC 
 

> ezi
>
>
>>

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Re: NYTimes.com: In Washington, Putin’s Nuclear Threats Stir Growing Alarm

[John Clark]

On Mon, Oct 3, 2022 at 12:07 AM Brent Meeker  wrote:

* > Yes that's one way it could go bad.  But there's also the case that
> they literally don't work. *
>

Unfortunately I think there is little chance that Russian H-bombs won't
explode because it's not that difficult to maintain them; Plutonium 239 has
a halflife of 24,000 years, U235 has a half life of over 700 million years,
and lithium-6 deuteride is stable. It's true that modern H-bombs also have
a very small amount  of the hydrogen isotope tritium and it's half life is
only 12 years but it will explode without tritium just with a somewhat
reduced yield, and the chemical explosive used to initiate the implosion
could become unstable after a few decades and would need to be replaced
with fresh explosives, but I have a hunch if there is anything in Russia
that is well-maintained it is their nuclear bombs. And since Ukraine is
right on the Russian border a delivery system for such bombs is not really
an issue.

John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at  Extropolis

ezi


>

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Re: NYTimes.com: In Washington, Putin’s Nuclear Threats Stir Growing Alarm

[Lawrence Crowell]

The probability of this is small I think, but not zero. I do think it is 
not likely these are dysfunctional. If anything might be dysfunctional it 
would be their delivery systems. The Russians have made these a top 
priority. 

If Russia starts nuking Ukraine NATO cannot respond in kind. In the end we 
can only trust that future history will judge this regime accordingly.

LC

On Sunday, October 2, 2022 at 5:10:03 AM UTC-5 johnk...@gmail.com wrote:

> Check out this article from The New York Times. Because I'm a subscriber, 
> you can read it through this gift link without a subscription.
>
> In Washington, Putin’s Nuclear Threats Stir Growing Alarm
>
> In a gathering Cold War atmosphere, American officials are gaming out 
> responses should Russia resort to battlefield nuclear weapons.
>
>
> https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/01/world/europe/washington-putin-nuclear-threats.html?unlocked_article_code=xRIoiQS_9G47tEfSSIh12q69I8sJscUQHsXumHRednYtuLxU3HKOn79jTNmPMzbUbZXDyY2Qt8QLqF9BG9Un8IJQG4FBo6fzfp1vMm90dmrG5mo-8p5QQbSY4QXhROP6qO1hD-NhOfPhurG9l0rCO9jzoZXfbgPOYKSVPLAQQ7CBMazmXZmPF6mPOL6FTgJx56wPmRE_WNgkURTMaTRsnj05_meP7svWDzdIxku7JkBDIrX7GiyHlrx-inAlPtLbUL2TDgvfFhyH0GImfmEdW9l8RM02Kvc_3s94yYuwOzUqkiO8KiLRgxqprvCmlwDns6jdliL8Nt4Pe2Dt71WFc5pjI_AXqJl4fzfHc_jk4A&smid=em-share
>

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Re: NYTimes.com: In Washington, Putin’s Nuclear Threats Stir Growing Alarm

[Brent Meeker]

Yes that's one way it could go bad.  But there's also the case that they 
literally don't work.  What if it's found that the Russia nuclear 
arsenal is like the Moskova.  An unmaintained, unreliable, and 
ineffective weapon.  Putin will think, "SHIT!  No only can I not depend 
on the Army, I can't depend on my nukes AND I'VE JUST DEMONSTRATED THIS 
TO THE WEST!".  Desperate men will do desperate things.  I just hope the 
oligarchs can have him assassinated quickly enough.


Brent

On 10/2/2022 3:14 PM, John Clark wrote:

On Sun, Oct 2, 2022 at 5:42 PM Brent Meeker  wrote:

/> Think how bad it will be if Putin uses tactical nuclear weapons
in Ukraine and*they don't work!
*/



That's what I'm worried about. Tactical nukes won't give much military 
help in this sort of war, so a autocrat like Putin may think that if 
kiloton level nuclear bombs don't work then, since the 77 year old 
taboo against nuclear weapons had already been broken then  try the 
strategic megaton variety. It wouldn't be a smart thing for Putin to 
do but then it wasn't a smart thing for him to invade Ukraine in the 
first place, so that's why I think the world is closer to the nuclear 
war that it's been since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis.
John K Clark    See what's on my new list at Extropolis 


obt



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Re: NYTimes.com: In Washington, Putin’s Nuclear Threats Stir Growing Alarm

[John Clark]

On Sun, Oct 2, 2022 at 5:42 PM Brent Meeker  wrote:


> * > Think how bad it will be if Putin uses tactical nuclear weapons in
> Ukraine and they don't work!*
>


That's what I'm worried about. Tactical nukes won't give much military help
in this sort of war, so a autocrat like Putin may think that if kiloton
level nuclear bombs don't work then, since the 77 year old taboo against
nuclear weapons had already been broken then  try the strategic megaton
variety. It wouldn't be a smart thing for Putin to do but then it wasn't a
smart thing for him to invade Ukraine in the first place, so that's why I
think the world is closer to the nuclear war that it's been since the 1962
Cuban missile crisis.
John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at  Extropolis

obt



>

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Re: NYTimes.com: In Washington, Putin’s Nuclear Threats Stir Growing Alarm

[Brent Meeker]

Think how bad it will be if Putin uses tactical nuclear weapons in 
Ukraine and*they don't work!


*Brent*
*
On 10/2/2022 3:09 AM, John Clark wrote:
Check out this article from The New York Times. Because I'm a 
subscriber, you can read it through this gift link without a subscription.


In Washington, Putin’s Nuclear Threats Stir Growing Alarm

In a gathering Cold War atmosphere, American officials are gaming out 
responses should Russia resort to battlefield nuclear weapons.


https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/01/world/europe/washington-putin-nuclear-threats.html?unlocked_article_code=xRIoiQS_9G47tEfSSIh12q69I8sJscUQHsXumHRednYtuLxU3HKOn79jTNmPMzbUbZXDyY2Qt8QLqF9BG9Un8IJQG4FBo6fzfp1vMm90dmrG5mo-8p5QQbSY4QXhROP6qO1hD-NhOfPhurG9l0rCO9jzoZXfbgPOYKSVPLAQQ7CBMazmXZmPF6mPOL6FTgJx56wPmRE_WNgkURTMaTRsnj05_meP7svWDzdIxku7JkBDIrX7GiyHlrx-inAlPtLbUL2TDgvfFhyH0GImfmEdW9l8RM02Kvc_3s94yYuwOzUqkiO8KiLRgxqprvCmlwDns6jdliL8Nt4Pe2Dt71WFc5pjI_AXqJl4fzfHc_jk4A&smid=em-share 


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