Re: The prediction market and Superconductivity
OK the probability just dropped, it's now down to 36% and I think I know why: Reported Failure To Reproduce Superconductivity At Room Temperature In LK-99 <https://www.science20.com/hontas_farmer/reported_failure_to_reproduce_superconductivity_at_room_temperature_in_lk99-256723> John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at Extropolis <https://groups.google.com/g/extropolis> vvc On Tue, Aug 1, 2023 at 8:18 AM John Clark wrote: > Although far from perfect the prediction market has a better record of > correct predictions than just about anybody or anything else, it changes > from minute to minute but at the time I'm writing, 8AM eastern time in > the US, it gives a 52% chance that the Korean claim that LK-99, the > material they made that they claim is superconducting at room temperature > and pressure, will be independently duplicated by different researchers > before 2025. To give you an idea of its volatility, at 7 AM it was only 51%. > I'm surprised it rated it so high. > > > Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print > replicate before 2025? > <https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre> > > John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at Extropolis > <https://groups.google.com/g/extropolis> > scc > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAJPayv2z799bpC%3DNmoXFAoizRjtZ_ptr4u8vNU-_Os1YQC4j%3Dw%40mail.gmail.com.
The prediction market and Superconductivity
Although far from perfect the prediction market has a better record of correct predictions than just about anybody or anything else, it changes from minute to minute but at the time I'm writing, 8AM eastern time in the US, it gives a 52% chance that the Korean claim that LK-99, the material they made that they claim is superconducting at room temperature and pressure, will be independently duplicated by different researchers before 2025. To give you an idea of its volatility, at 7 AM it was only 51%. I'm surprised it rated it so high. Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025? <https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre> John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at Extropolis <https://groups.google.com/g/extropolis> scc -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAJPayv2YvgOVVjq-XKNd6vGaA7bfLBAiOdT_HnoLfn%2BA5rLZrg%40mail.gmail.com.
Re: Superconductivity
Well, I am a fool for good news, so lets hope. Thanks. On Saturday, July 29, 2023 at 05:48:20 AM EDT, smitra wrote: We'll have to see! Commentary from experts leans to this result more likely being due to strong paramagnetism rather than the Meissner effect characteristic of superconductivity. Saibal On 26-07-2023 22:55, 'spudboy...@aol.com' via Everything List wrote: > So, what is next, manufacturing for zero-G on earth, MagLev trains? > Baby Fusion reactors? > > On Wednesday, July 26, 2023 at 04:20:28 PM EDT, smitra > wrote: > > There were two preprints, this is the other one: > > https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037 > > Saibal > > On 26-07-2023 17:27, John Clark wrote: > >> In March the journal Nature published an article claiming that a >> room >> temperature Superconductor had been discovered. >> >> Evidence of near-ambient superconductivity in a N-doped lutetium >> hydride [1 [1]] >> >> I was a little surprised Nature decided to publish it because the >> same >> people made the same claim a few years ago but the journal had to >> retract it, and now to their intense embarrassment it looks like >> history is going to be repeating itself; the lead author sent >> another >> paper to the Physical Review Journal and now it looks like they're >> going to have to retract that paper too: >> >> ‘A very disturbing picture’: another retraction imminent for >> controversial physicist [2 [2]] >> >> Meanwhile a completely different group has claimed to have found a >> different substance that superconducts at room temperature and >> pressure. I'll believe it when I see it: >> >> The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor [3 [3]] >> >> John K Clark See what's on my new list at Extropolis [4 [4]] >> >> 9kd >> >> -- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google >> Groups "Everything List" group. >> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, >> send >> an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. >> To view this discussion on the web visit >> > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAJPayv3FkeLSj-AfFvOmm6AwJzYUNWZw-BZwmtXc3dr6aPEBuw%40mail.gmail.com >> [5]. >> >> Links: >> -- >> [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05742-0 >> [2] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02401-2 >> [3] https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008 >> [4] https://groups.google.com/g/extropolis >> [5] >> > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAJPayv3FkeLSj-AfFvOmm6AwJzYUNWZw-BZwmtXc3dr6aPEBuw%40mail.gmail.com?utm_medium=email_source=footer > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google > Groups "Everything List" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send > an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. > To view this discussion on the web visit > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/35c084baecad279f6ef28ca300b49fde%40zonnet.nl > [5] > . > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google > Groups "Everything List" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send > an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. > To view this discussion on the web visit > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/1117422481.3143174.1690404941350%40mail.yahoo.com > [6]. > > > Links: > -- > [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05742-0 > [2] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02401-2 > [3] https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008 > [4] https://groups.google.com/g/extropolis > [5] > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/35c084baecad279f6ef28ca300b49fde%40zonnet.nl?utm_medium=email_source=footer > [6] > https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/1117422481.3143174.1690404941350%40mail.yahoo.com?utm_medium=email_source=footer -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/f0c746073df6c2d96404d990c9f594bb%40zonnet.nl. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/1686145790.3879211.1690689530993%40mail.yahoo.com.
Re: Superconductivity
On Sat, Jul 29, 2023 at 5:48 AM smitra wrote: > > *> We'll have to see! Commentary from experts leans to this result more > likely being due to strong paramagnetism rather than the Meissner effect > characteristic of superconductivity.* > Yeah, it sounds a little too good to be true, but I hope I'm wrong. John K Clark > > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAJPayv1rnbmW%2B8FxZO6K%2BZNEQhd%3DHyC%2B-mGPOGKvf5t1HiHgUQ%40mail.gmail.com.
Re: Superconductivity
We'll have to see! Commentary from experts leans to this result more likely being due to strong paramagnetism rather than the Meissner effect characteristic of superconductivity. Saibal On 26-07-2023 22:55, 'spudboy...@aol.com' via Everything List wrote: So, what is next, manufacturing for zero-G on earth, MagLev trains? Baby Fusion reactors? On Wednesday, July 26, 2023 at 04:20:28 PM EDT, smitra wrote: There were two preprints, this is the other one: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12037 Saibal On 26-07-2023 17:27, John Clark wrote: In March the journal Nature published an article claiming that a room temperature Superconductor had been discovered. Evidence of near-ambient superconductivity in a N-doped lutetium hydride [1 [1]] I was a little surprised Nature decided to publish it because the same people made the same claim a few years ago but the journal had to retract it, and now to their intense embarrassment it looks like history is going to be repeating itself; the lead author sent another paper to the Physical Review Journal and now it looks like they're going to have to retract that paper too: ‘A very disturbing picture’: another retraction imminent for controversial physicist [2 [2]] Meanwhile a completely different group has claimed to have found a different substance that superconducts at room temperature and pressure. I'll believe it when I see it: The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor [3 [3]] John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at Extropolis [4 [4]] 9kd -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAJPayv3FkeLSj-AfFvOmm6AwJzYUNWZw-BZwmtXc3dr6aPEBuw%40mail.gmail.com [5]. Links: -- [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05742-0 [2] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02401-2 [3] https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008 [4] https://groups.google.com/g/extropolis [5] https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAJPayv3FkeLSj-AfFvOmm6AwJzYUNWZw-BZwmtXc3dr6aPEBuw%40mail.gmail.com?utm_medium=email_source=footer -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/35c084baecad279f6ef28ca300b49fde%40zonnet.nl [5] . -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/1117422481.3143174.1690404941350%40mail.yahoo.com [6]. Links: -- [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05742-0 [2] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02401-2 [3] https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008 [4] https://groups.google.com/g/extropolis [5] https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/35c084baecad279f6ef28ca300b49fde%40zonnet.nl?utm_medium=emailutm_source=footer [6] https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/1117422481.3143174.1690404941350%40mail.yahoo.com?utm_medium=email_source=footer -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/f0c746073df6c2d96404d990c9f594bb%40zonnet.nl.
Superconductivity
In March the journal Nature published an article claiming that a room temperature Superconductor had been discovered. Evidence of near-ambient superconductivity in a N-doped lutetium hydride <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05742-0> I was a little surprised Nature decided to publish it because the same people made the same claim a few years ago but the journal had to retract it, and now to their intense embarrassment it looks like history is going to be repeating itself; the lead author sent another paper to the Physical Review Journal and now it looks like they're going to have to retract that paper too: ‘A very disturbing picture’: another retraction imminent for controversial physicist <https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02401-2> Meanwhile a completely different group has claimed to have found a different substance that superconducts at room temperature and pressure. I'll believe it when I see it: The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor <https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12008> John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at Extropolis <https://groups.google.com/g/extropolis> 9kd -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAJPayv3FkeLSj-AfFvOmm6AwJzYUNWZw-BZwmtXc3dr6aPEBuw%40mail.gmail.com.
