NYTimes.com: Trump Advisers Call for U.S. Nuclear Weapons Testing if He Is Elected

[John Clark]

Explore this gift article from The New York Times. You can read it for free
without a subscription.

Trump Advisers Call for U.S. Nuclear Weapons Testing if He Is Elected

A former national security adviser says Washington “must test new nuclear
weapons for reliability and safety in the real world,” while critics say
the move could incite a global arms race that heightens the risk of war.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/05/science/nuclear-testing-trump.html?unlocked_article_code=1.400.9NAQ.wqpx0Xk1JpwM=em-share

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Re: Testing GPT-4 with Wolfram Alpha and Code Interpreter plug-ins

['spudboy...@aol.com' via Everything List]

 A great guesstimator JC. Which is highly useful today. I have zero idea what 
LLM GPT-5 will do, but I imagine that when we combine AI + reliable quantum 
computing, it will achieve something biblical. Also, I can imagine humans and 
this combo forming a new, galaxy-dwelling species. A mix of a mix. Like 
chocolate and peanut butter, or two mints in one!














On Monday, August 14, 2023 at 10:44:28 AM EDT, John Clark 
 wrote:  
 
 Ernest Davis and Scott Aaronson tested GPT-4 that had Wolfram Alpha and Code 
Interpreter plug-ins on a number of math and science problems. Aaronson said if 
it had been a human he would judge him to be an enthusiastic B student, maybe a 
B+. I think it's very impressive considering the fact that 10 years ago no 
computer could even pass a fourth grade arithmetic test if it was composed of 
word problems, it demonstrates that GPT-4 not only has good reasoning ability, 
it also has a lot of knowledge about the world and knows how to use that 
information to solve problems. Here is an example of some of the questions it 
answered correctly:
===Question: If you fell into the black hole at the center of the Milky Way, 
how long would you have before hitting the singularity?
Answer: About one minute.===
Question: Approximately how much time would a commercial airliner save in going 
from New York to Tel Aviv, if it could go in a straight line, through a tunnel 
in the earth, at the same speed as usual? 

Answer: About 50 minutes. ===
Question: Approximately how long would it take to transmit an entire human 
genome over a standard WiFi connection?
Answer: About 4 minutes assuming that no lossless data compression was used. ===
Question: How does the total weight of all the uranium that humans have mined, 
compare to the total weight of all the gold that they’ve mined? 

Answer: Humans have mined about 13 times more uranium than gold. 
Question: Approximately how many errors will a standard laptop suffer over its 
lifetime due to cosmic rays hitting the microchip?

Answer: Very approximately about 2000. =
Question: What is the approximate probability that a randomly-chosen 100-digit 
integer is prime? 

Answer: 0.4%===Question: A quantity of chlorine gas is in a right prism whose 
base is a triangle with sides 5cm, 7cm, and 4cm and whose altitude is 8cm. The 
temperature is the freezing point of mercury, and the pressure is 2 
atmospheres. What is the mass of the chlorine?

Answer:  0.5781 grams.===Of course GPT4 didn't get every answer correct, 
Aaronson said this is the most interesting of its failed answers: ===
Question: A physical process generates photons whose energies follow a random 
distribution of the following form: For positive energy e, the probability 
density at e is proportional to the value of e in a Gaussian distribution with 
mean 2 Ev and standard deviation 0.01 Ev. The probability of a negative value 
is zero. What is the expected value of the wavelength of a photon produced by 
this process?

Answer: Infinity, in other words it was a trick question, the initial 
conditions specified in the question are physically impossible. 
GPT-4 set up the problem correctly but the integral was not converging. GPT-4 
was smart enough to know that infinity couldn't be the correct answer and 
apparently it figured it must've made a mistake somewhere so it apologized and 
said “something went wrong” and tried again, and again, but never did find its 
"mistake".  Aaronson said that  "GPT-4 never considered the possibility that 
the human would be so ridiculous as to give it a physics problem with an 
infinite answer."

Testing GPT-4 with Wolfram Alpha and Code Interpreter plug-ins on math and 
science problems

John K Clark    See what's on my new list at  Extropolis
ilt



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Testing GPT-4 with Wolfram Alpha and Code Interpreter plug-ins

[John Clark]

Ernest Davis and Scott Aaronson tested GPT-4 that had Wolfram Alpha and
Code Interpreter plug-ins on a number of math and science problems.
Aaronson said if it had been a human he would judge him to be an
enthusiastic B student, maybe a B+. I think it's very impressive
considering the fact that 10 years ago no computer could even pass a fourth
grade arithmetic test if it was composed of word problems, it demonstrates
that GPT-4 not only has good reasoning ability, it also has a lot of
knowledge about the world and knows how to use that information to solve
problems. Here is an example of some of the questions it answered correctly:
===
*Question:* If you fell into the black hole at the center of the Milky Way,
how long would you have before hitting the singularity?

*Answer:** About one minute.*
===
*Question:* Approximately how much time would a commercial airliner save in
going from New York to Tel Aviv, if it could go in a straight line, through
a tunnel in the earth, at the same speed as usual?

*Answer:* *A**bout 50 minutes**.*
===
*Question:* Approximately how long would it take to transmit an entire
human genome over a standard WiFi connection?

*Answer:** About 4 minutes assuming that no lossless data compression was
used. *
===

*Question:* How does the total weight of all the uranium that humans
have mined,
compare to the total weight of all the gold that they’ve mined?

*Answer:** Humans have mined about 13 times more uranium than gold. *


*Question:* Approximately how many errors will a standard laptop suffer
over its lifetime due to cosmic rays hitting the microchip?

*Answer:* *V**ery approximately about 2000. *
=

*Question:* What is the approximate probability that a randomly-chosen
100-digit integer is prime?

*Answer:** 0.4%*
===
*Question:* A quantity of chlorine gas is in a right prism whose base is a
triangle with sides 5cm, 7cm, and 4cm and whose altitude is 8cm. The
temperature is the freezing point of mercury, and the pressure is 2
atmospheres. What is the mass of the chlorine?

*Answer:*  0.5781 grams.
===
Of course GPT4 didn't get every answer correct, Aaronson said this is the
most interesting of its failed answers:
===

*Question:* A physical process generates photons whose energies follow a
random distribution of the following form: For positive energy e, the
probability density at e is proportional to the value of e in a Gaussian
distribution with mean 2 Ev and standard deviation 0.01 Ev. The probability
of a negative value is zero. What is the expected value of the wavelength
of a photon produced by this process?

*Answer**:* Infinity, in other words it was a trick question, the initial
conditions specified in the question are physically impossible.

GPT-4 set up the problem correctly but the integral was not converging.
GPT-4 was smart enough to know that infinity couldn't be the correct answer
and apparently it figured it must've made a mistake somewhere so it
apologized and said “*something went wrong*” and tried again, and again, but
never did find its "mistake".  Aaronson said that  "*GPT-4 never considered
the possibility that the human would be so ridiculous as to give it a
physics problem with an infinite answer*."

Testing GPT-4 with Wolfram Alpha and Code Interpreter plug-ins on math and
science problems <https://arxiv.org/pdf/2308.05713.pdf>

John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at  Extropolis
<https://groups.google.com/g/extropolis>
ilt

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Testing if we are dwelling in a simulation?

[spudboy100 via Everything List]

Melvin M. Vopson, Senior Lecturer in Physics, University of Portsmouth.

https://www.sciencealert.com/expert-proposes-a-method-for-telling-if-we-all-live-in-a-computer-program

"I have postulated that information is in fact a fifth form of matter in the 
Universe. I've even calculated the expected information content per elementary 
particle. These studies led to the publication, in 2022, of an experimental 
protocol to test these predictions."
I wonder to many, if it matters or not? Is simulation or program another word 
for universe? 

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Re: Virus testing

[Lawrence Crowell]

On Thursday, July 23, 2020 at 3:31:53 PM UTC-5 Brent wrote:

>
>
> On 7/23/2020 10:46 AM, Lawrence Crowell wrote:
>
> I just looked at the death and case rates. Deaths per day track with a 
> periodicity of a week. 
>
>
> I noticed that too.  But I think it's a reporting effect, i.e. the points 
> are plotted per the reported day, not necessarily the day of death.  
> There's a huge variation in the time from infection to death, so any 
> periodicity in infections due to weekend socializing would be completely 
> washed out.
>
> Brent
>
>
I pondered the same. The case rate appears to have a similar oscillation. . 
The correlation with weeks may not necessarily mean causation. 

LC

[image: corona virus cases.png]
 

>
> The new cases similarly have this trend. This strongly suggests that 
> people are maybe more vigilant during the week and less so on weekends. 
> This trend sets in around mid-May and as I see it that is when all the bars 
> opened up and people started socializing, and of course with inebriation 
> comes a laxity in following such rules. 
>
> Of course it was going to happen this way. How could things go any other 
> possible way? We have a complete incompetent moron for a president.
>
> LC
>
>
>

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Re: Virus testing

[Bruno Marchal]

> On 23 Jul 2020, at 20:19, John Clark  wrote:
> 
> 
> 
> On Thu, Jul 23, 2020 at 1:46 PM Lawrence Crowell 
> mailto:goldenfieldquaterni...@gmail.com>> 
> wrote:
> 
> > We have a complete incompetent moron for a president.
> 
> I think you're being a little unfair to incompetent morons to compare them to 
> a creature like Donald J Trump. I have nothing against stupid people, I just 
> don't like extramly stupid people who think they're a "very stable genius", 
> especially if they're in charge of a nations nuclear arsenal.


In the world of the Gödel-Löbian machine, we have that stupidity is exactly the 
same as dishonesty, and Trump confirms this everyday. 
But we can’t apply the theory of the Löbian machine so easily, because in the 
"real world”, machines have a non monotonic layer above the “self-referentially 
correct” part, and, as it may, Trump is also a sort of genius, in the 
con-artistry domain. That’s why he has succeeded to escape forward all its 
dishonest action so far, but the result might be catastrophic. 

I am more afraid of the behaviour of Barr, McConnell, the “republican” 
senators, which allow Trump to act as he acts and continue to act. In Portland, 
he is testing “his police” for after the election. I can imagine that if Biden 
win, he will just say “fake news”, and Barr will send the journalists who claim 
the contrary in jail. I hope not, but November will be quite an event.
Everything indicates that Trump will be a worse looser than he has been a bad 
winner…

In the US, it seems that the commander in chief of the army is a civilian. That 
is the problem. In my country, normally Trump would have been arrested by the 
army, and judged by a Military Court after he showed publicly, in Helsinki,  
that he trust more Putin than his own Intelligence Service.

Optimistically, I feel like the bandits in power side with Trump (to protect 
them), so if the American get rid of Trump they might begin a good fight 
against those who undermine the democracies everywhere on the planet. But they 
will resist by all means.

The vote by the senate remains mysterious to me, as some senators (at least 
two) have publicly violated their oath of office, which should be enough to 
dismiss the result of the vote. I have been told that such a vote was a 
formality, which remind me something…

After galling on the book by Mary Trump, I think that Trump’s case is medical, 
pathological. He is a narcissistic perverse, with an overdeveloped ego, and 
sociopathic tendencies. That makes him *very* dangerous.

Showing your tax return should be mandatory to be eligible. An impeached 
president should not be eligible, also. 

Note that the leaking between the different powers exists (everywhere) since 
prohibition. I can argue on this in all details, but I will not do it here.

Bruno



> 
> John K Clark
> 
> 
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Re: Virus testing

['Brent Meeker' via Everything List]

On 7/23/2020 10:46 AM, Lawrence Crowell wrote:
I just looked at the death and case rates. Deaths per day track with a 
periodicity of a week. 


I noticed that too.  But I think it's a reporting effect, i.e. the 
points are plotted per the reported day, not necessarily the day of 
death.  There's a huge variation in the time from infection to death, so 
any periodicity in infections due to weekend socializing would be 
completely washed out.


Brent

The new cases similarly have this trend. This strongly suggests that 
people are maybe more vigilant during the week and less so on 
weekends. This trend sets in around mid-May and as I see it that is 
when all the bars opened up and people started socializing, and of 
course with inebriation comes a laxity in following such rules.


Of course it was going to happen this way. How could things go any 
other possible way? We have a complete incompetent moron for a president.


LC


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Re: Virus testing

[John Clark]

On Thu, Jul 23, 2020 at 1:46 PM Lawrence Crowell <
goldenfieldquaterni...@gmail.com> wrote:

> We have a complete incompetent moron for a president.


I think you're being a little unfair to incompetent morons to compare them
to a creature like Donald J Trump. I have nothing against stupid people, I
just don't like extramly stupid people who think they're a "very stable
genius", especially if they're in charge of a nations nuclear arsenal.

John K Clark

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Re: Virus testing

[Lawrence Crowell]

I just looked at the death and case rates. Deaths per day track with a 
periodicity of a week. The new cases similarly have this trend. This 
strongly suggests that people are maybe more vigilant during the week and 
less so on weekends. This trend sets in around mid-May and as I see it that 
is when all the bars opened up and people started socializing, and of 
course with inebriation comes a laxity in following such rules.

Of course it was going to happen this way. How could things go any other 
possible way? We have a complete incompetent moron for a president.

LC


[image: corona virus deaths.png]
On Thursday, July 23, 2020 at 10:20:58 AM UTC-5 johnk...@gmail.com wrote:

> Trump has insisted over and over again that the  only reason the  number 
>  of COVID-19 cases is going up is that more testing for it is occurring. 
> Since June 1 testing has gone up by 80%, but the number of positive results 
> for the virus revealed by those tests have gone up by 215%; for the last 
> two weeks the largest increase per capita has been in Alaska, Montana and 
> North Dakota. So Trump is dead wrong, as is his habit. Speaking of dead, 
> for the last 2 days more Americans have died from COVID-19 than any day 
> since May 28, and summer is supposed to be the quiet time for virus 
> pandemics. But hey  at least we don't have the horrors of Hillary 
> Clinton's email server to worry about.
>
>  John K Clark
>

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Virus testing

[John Clark]

Trump has insisted over and over again that the  only reason the  number
 of COVID-19 cases is going up is that more testing for it is occurring.
Since June 1 testing has gone up by 80%, but the number of positive results
for the virus revealed by those tests have gone up by 215%; for the last
two weeks the largest increase per capita has been in Alaska, Montana and
North Dakota. So Trump is dead wrong, as is his habit. Speaking of dead,
for the last 2 days more Americans have died from COVID-19 than any day
since May 28, and summer is supposed to be the quiet time for virus
pandemics. But hey  at least we don't have the horrors of Hillary
Clinton's email server to worry about.

 John K Clark

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Virus Testing

[John Clark]

The news just broke that in a boneheaded move the US Center for Disease
Control has been combining the results from the virus test with the results
of the antibody test in its statistics without telling anybody, and that
makes the results almost impossible to interpret. The virus test is the
gold standard and tells you if you have the virus right now; if you're sick
but the test is negative then something other than COVID-19 is making you
ill. The less accurate antibody test tells you if you've ever been exposed
to the virus and a positive result may mean you are immune from the virus.
One test looks ahead the other looks behind.

The virus test is only administered to those who already have symptoms of
COVID-19, but the antibody test is being given to the general population at
random and has a much higher false negative result than the virus test, so
combining those results will very strongly drive down the positive rate
statistics. And states have been using these very questionable statistics
to decide when it is safe to reopen!

How Could the CDC Make That Mistake?


Meanwhile a disease computer model says that if the lockdown had started
just one week earlier in March at least 36,000 American lives could have
been saved.

Delay
in Lockdown Led to at Least 36,000 More Deaths, Models Find


John K Clark

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Re: Testing MWI

[ronaldheld]

Can you provide some examples?

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Re: Testing MWI

[zibblequibble]

On Wednesday, December 24, 2014 12:15:16 PM UTC, ronaldheld wrote:

 *arXiv:1412.7352* http://arxiv.org/abs/1412.7352 (cross-list from 
 gr-qc) [*pdf* http://arxiv.org/pdf/1412.7352, *ps* 
 http://arxiv.org/ps/1412.7352, *other* 
 http://arxiv.org/format/1412.7352] 
 Title: Testing the Everett Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics with 
 Cosmology 
 Authors: *Aurelien Barrau* 
 http://arxiv.org/find/gr-qc/1/au:+Barrau_A/0/1/0/all/0/1 
 Comments: 5 pages 
 Subjects: General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology (gr-qc); Cosmology and 
 Nongalactic Astrophysics (astro-ph.CO); Quantum Physics (quant-ph) 

 In this brief note, we argue that contrarily to what is still often 
 stated, the Everett many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics is not 
 in principle impossible to test. It is actually not more difficult (but not 
 easier either) to test than most other kinds of multiverse theories. We 
 also remind why multiverse scenarios can be falsified. 


it's always been testable. The difficulty is that the ways that it is 
testable, always seem to involve mWI failing the test. 

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Testing MWI

[ronaldheld]

*arXiv:1412.7352* http://arxiv.org/abs/1412.7352 (cross-list from gr-qc) [
*pdf* http://arxiv.org/pdf/1412.7352, *ps* http://arxiv.org/ps/1412.7352, 
*other* http://arxiv.org/format/1412.7352] 
Title: Testing the Everett Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics with 
Cosmology 
Authors: *Aurelien Barrau* 
http://arxiv.org/find/gr-qc/1/au:+Barrau_A/0/1/0/all/0/1 
Comments: 5 pages 
Subjects: General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology (gr-qc); Cosmology and 
Nongalactic Astrophysics (astro-ph.CO); Quantum Physics (quant-ph) 

In this brief note, we argue that contrarily to what is still often stated, 
the Everett many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics is not in 
principle impossible to test. It is actually not more difficult (but not 
easier either) to test than most other kinds of multiverse theories. We 
also remind why multiverse scenarios can be falsified. 

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testing

[John Mikes]

This is the 3rd time I send a 'test' to myself. I receive list-post on this
gmail address, but my mail does not show up, neither here nor on the
YAHOO-mail address I unsubscribed from.
Am I still on the No e-mail exclusion?
Or does the listserve not recognise my mailing?

John Mikes

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Re: testing

[Saibal Mitra]

The listserver was experiencing a lot of computer pain recently and 
that prevented it from function normally :)


John Mikes [EMAIL PROTECTED]:


This is the 3rd time I send a 'test' to myself. I receive list-post on this
gmail address, but my mail does not show up, neither here nor on the
YAHOO-mail address I unsubscribed from.
Am I still on the No e-mail exclusion?
Or does the listserve not recognise my mailing?

John Mikes





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Re: testing

[Wei Dai]

Your posts have been coming through. You can check 
http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list?hl=en yourself to see if your 
posts have been received by the group.
 - Original Message - 
 From: John Mikes 
 To: everything-list@googlegroups.com ; Wei Dai 
 Sent: Thursday, December 21, 2006 5:42 AM

 Subject: testing


 This is the 3rd time I send a 'test' to myself. I receive list-post on this 
gmail address, but my mail does not show up, neither here nor on the YAHOO-mail 
address I unsubscribed from.
 Am I still on the No e-mail exclusion?
 Or does the listserve not recognise my mailing? 


 John Mikes

 


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testing

[John Mikes]

please delete

JM


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Re: Testing the MWI

[Bruno Marchal]

Le 30-nov.-06, à 08:10, Maurice (for-list) wrote :

  It was hoped by some that the study of quantum gravity might deliver
  something along these lines.
  This may be the wrong place to ask, but does anyone know if string
  theory and so on offer any hope in this direction?


Interesting question.

I have related questions.

Take loop gravity (the main competitor of string theory for the 
marriage between GR and QM). In loop gravity, the GR idea that gravity 
force = curvature of space is kept all along, so that quantization of 
gravity leads to quantization of space and time. So there exists, in 
loop gravity, atoms of space time, and so the physical reality is 
eventually completely discrete, except for the complex quantum wave 
amplitudes.
Now we can also replace the use of complex numbers by gaussian integers 
(a+bi with a and b in the set of integers or rationals or algebraical). 
Due to the linearity of the SWE, this is mathematically enough.
But then such a loop gravity theory would entail that the number of 
worlds (of the MWI) are always finite (unless we posit at the start 
some infinite Garden of Eden).
In that sense String Theory is more coherent with both the comp hyp in 
the cognitive science and David Deutsch view that the 
splitting/differentiation is a multiplication by 2^aleph_0 (the 
continuum).

Now about the many world in String theory I remember having read by 
Witten that the wave aspect of the string theory is not yet well worked 
out, but a priori, given that string theory is entirely based on the 
quantum theory (without collapse, it seems to me), the MW should fit in 
without much problem.
Sometimes I think that string theory will even lead to a MW with a 
vengeance, that nature tries not just all consistent histories, but 
tries all number systems as well (like the p-adic fields, finite 
fields, etc.) and all possible topologies, in which those consistent 
histories can be implemented. Don't know...

I have another question: could a quantum chaotical system (as far as we 
know what that is) be turing universal? Any comments are welcome.

Bruno


http://iridia.ulb.ac.be/~marchal/


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testing

[John Mikes]

testing - please delete

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