Re: [FRIAM] [EXTERNAL] Re: A Good Question - Should the United States join OPEC?

[David Mirly]

I contacted a chemical engineer I used to work with (I was just a computer 
monkey) and we did indeed use a lot of natural gas to fire various things and 
also to produce hydrogen.  The hydrogen was used in a process to remove sulfur 
from diesel.

So sorry, your real point that refineries consume a lot of natural gas is of 
course correct.

I'll shut up now.


On Feb 29, 2012, at 7:01 PM, q...@aol.com wrote:

> David --
> 
> Thanks for your comment. I suppose I should have been both more specific and 
> more vague. It is sometimes an "input", not an "ingredient". Steam cracking, 
> which sometimes uses LPG, appears not to be necessary for gasoline 
> production, but it is useful for other hydrocarbons.
> 
> Please excuse my speculations. I have not worked in a refinery, but rather in 
> the refined confines of energy analysis, which may explain some of my inexact 
> language. I welcome all corrections. 
> 
> - Claiborne -
> 
> -Original Message-
> From: David Mirly 
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
> Sent: Wed, Feb 29, 2012 4:10 pm
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] [EXTERNAL] Re: A Good Question - Should the United 
> States join OPEC?
> 
> True, refineries use an enormous amount of electricity.
> 
> But my point was that natural gas is not an ingredient in the production of 
> gasoline itself.  
> 
> If electricity generated by natural gas and then used by oil refineries was 
> the 
> point of the original post then I missed that.
> 
> At the refinery I worked at, we built a coke gasification unit to generate 
> our 
> own electricity.  40 Mw.
> 
> 
> On Feb 29, 2012, at 12:30 PM, Parks, Raymond wrote:
> 
> > Heaters/furnaces/burners.
> > 
> > They can be electric, either off-site or co-gen, or they can use waste 
> product.  However, natural gas is the most common.
> > 
> > Ray Parks
> > 
> > 
> > - Original Message -
> > From: David Mirly [mailto:mi...@comcast.net]
> > Sent: Wednesday, February 29, 2012 12:26 PM
> > To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
> > Subject: [EXTERNAL] Re: [FRIAM] A Good Question - Should the United States 
> join OPEC?
> > 
> > I'm not sure this statement is correct…"natural gas is an input into 
> > gasoline 
> refining (cracking the hydrocarbons)"
> > 
> > I don't think natural gas and crude oil refining typically, if ever, 
> intersect.  A crude oil refinery (which, of course, makes gasoline among 
> other 
> things) has only crude oil as it's main input.  
> > 
> > Now refineries differ from one another greatly in size and capabilities but 
> > I 
> have never heard of natural gas being used in the gasoline manufacture 
> process.
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > 
> > On Feb 29, 2012, at 10:55 AM, q...@aol.com wrote:
> > 
> >> Greetings, all --
> >> 
> >> "Gasland" is on my list, but in the meantime, I know that natural gas is 
> >> an 
> input into gasoline refining (cracking the hydrocarbons) and with natural gas 
> at 
> (artificially?) low prices, our overall cost for refining gasoline in the US 
> is 
> competitive worldwide. We're also the biggest user of gasoline (the fuel mix 
> in 
> other countries focuses more on diesel), which means we have competitively 
> priced refined gasoline in general, and a bit of extra supply in particular 
> at 
> the moment. The annual switchover of winter to summer gasoline has been 
> complicated by some scheduled maintenance and shut-downs at various 
> refineries, 
> leading to a more pronounced annual spike than usual. Oh, and there's the 
> Straits of Hormuz thing...
> >> 
> >> My $0.02,
> >> 
> >> - Claiborne Booker -
> >> 
> >> 
> >> -Original Message-
> >> From: Hugh Trenchard 
> >> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
> >> Sent: Wed, Feb 29, 2012 10:12 am
> >> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Good Question - Should the United States join OPEC?
> >> 
> >> Thanks for responding. Of course with natural gas, the first thing comes 
> >> to 
> my mind is "Gasland'.  But I suppose if some ot those environmental issues 
> can 
> be brought under control, natural gas seems like it will be a big economic 
> driver for a while.
> >> - Original Message -
> >> From: Joshua Thorp
> >> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> >> Sent: Tuesday, February 28, 2012 8:01 PM
> >> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Good Question - Should the United States

Re: [FRIAM] [EXTERNAL] Re: A Good Question - Should the United States join OPEC?

[David Mirly]

True, refineries use an enormous amount of electricity.

But my point was that natural gas is not an ingredient in the production of 
gasoline itself.  

If electricity generated by natural gas and then used by oil refineries was the 
point of the original post then I missed that.

At the refinery I worked at, we built a coke gasification unit to generate our 
own electricity.  40 Mw.


On Feb 29, 2012, at 12:30 PM, Parks, Raymond wrote:

> Heaters/furnaces/burners.
> 
> They can be electric, either off-site or co-gen, or they can use waste 
> product.  However, natural gas is the most common.
> 
> Ray Parks
> 
> 
> - Original Message -
> From: David Mirly [mailto:mi...@comcast.net]
> Sent: Wednesday, February 29, 2012 12:26 PM
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
> Subject: [EXTERNAL] Re: [FRIAM] A Good Question - Should the United States 
> join OPEC?
> 
> I'm not sure this statement is correct…"natural gas is an input into gasoline 
> refining (cracking the hydrocarbons)"
> 
> I don't think natural gas and crude oil refining typically, if ever, 
> intersect.  A crude oil refinery (which, of course, makes gasoline among 
> other things) has only crude oil as it's main input.  
> 
> Now refineries differ from one another greatly in size and capabilities but I 
> have never heard of natural gas being used in the gasoline manufacture 
> process.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> On Feb 29, 2012, at 10:55 AM, q...@aol.com wrote:
> 
>> Greetings, all --
>> 
>> "Gasland" is on my list, but in the meantime, I know that natural gas is an 
>> input into gasoline refining (cracking the hydrocarbons) and with natural 
>> gas at (artificially?) low prices, our overall cost for refining gasoline in 
>> the US is competitive worldwide. We're also the biggest user of gasoline 
>> (the fuel mix in other countries focuses more on diesel), which means we 
>> have competitively priced refined gasoline in general, and a bit of extra 
>> supply in particular at the moment. The annual switchover of winter to 
>> summer gasoline has been complicated by some scheduled maintenance and 
>> shut-downs at various refineries, leading to a more pronounced annual spike 
>> than usual. Oh, and there's the Straits of Hormuz thing...
>> 
>> My $0.02,
>> 
>> - Claiborne Booker -
>> 
>> 
>> -Original Message-
>> From: Hugh Trenchard 
>> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
>> Sent: Wed, Feb 29, 2012 10:12 am
>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Good Question - Should the United States join OPEC?
>> 
>> Thanks for responding. Of course with natural gas, the first thing comes to 
>> my mind is "Gasland'.  But I suppose if some ot those environmental issues 
>> can be brought under control, natural gas seems like it will be a big 
>> economic driver for a while.
>> - Original Message -
>> From: Joshua Thorp
>> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
>> Sent: Tuesday, February 28, 2012 8:01 PM
>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Good Question - Should the United States join OPEC?
>> 
>> This sounds right to me.  There is a lot of finger wagging at Iran for not 
>> having domestic capacity for petroleum refinement even though they are a 
>> crude exporter.  So I guess capacity works both ways.  The other thing I 
>> know is currently a hot topic is natural gas production.  I believe the US 
>> has increased its production quite a bit lately and is likely to have a lot 
>> more in the future.
>> 
>> 
>> On Feb 28, 2012, at 8:40 PM, Hugh Trenchard wrote:
>> 
>>> Just as a brief follow up, it seems to me one of the major factors in this 
>>> is that U.S. refining capacity has increased so that there is less need to 
>>> import refined petroleum products.  I haven't researched this in any detail 
>>> and I stand to be corrected on all my assertions, but it seems to me it's 
>>> not as though there are any new sources of US domestic supply or 
>>> significant increase in technological ability to extract previously hard to 
>>> obtain oil, and likely only marginal reduction in demand. There may be 
>>> some, but my thought is the hype on this is rather misleading.  Again I 
>>> don't have the figures, but my guess is that the vast majority of US crude 
>>> imports likely still come from Canada, Mexico, and other western hemisphere 
>>> nations, which the U.S. refining companies refine and re-sell as petroleum 
>>> products, both for domestic use and to export abroad.
>>&g

Re: [FRIAM] A Good Question - Should the United States join OPEC?

[David Mirly]

I'm not sure this statement is correct…"natural gas is an input into gasoline 
refining (cracking the hydrocarbons)"

I don't think natural gas and crude oil refining typically, if ever, intersect. 
 A crude oil refinery (which, of course, makes gasoline among other things) has 
only crude oil as it's main input.  

Now refineries differ from one another greatly in size and capabilities but I 
have never heard of natural gas being used in the gasoline manufacture process.





On Feb 29, 2012, at 10:55 AM, q...@aol.com wrote:

> Greetings, all --
> 
> "Gasland" is on my list, but in the meantime, I know that natural gas is an 
> input into gasoline refining (cracking the hydrocarbons) and with natural gas 
> at (artificially?) low prices, our overall cost for refining gasoline in the 
> US is competitive worldwide. We're also the biggest user of gasoline (the 
> fuel mix in other countries focuses more on diesel), which means we have 
> competitively priced refined gasoline in general, and a bit of extra supply 
> in particular at the moment. The annual switchover of winter to summer 
> gasoline has been complicated by some scheduled maintenance and shut-downs at 
> various refineries, leading to a more pronounced annual spike than usual. Oh, 
> and there's the Straits of Hormuz thing...
> 
> My $0.02,
> 
> - Claiborne Booker -
> 
> 
> -Original Message-
> From: Hugh Trenchard 
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
> Sent: Wed, Feb 29, 2012 10:12 am
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Good Question - Should the United States join OPEC?
> 
> Thanks for responding. Of course with natural gas, the first thing comes to 
> my mind is "Gasland'.  But I suppose if some ot those environmental issues 
> can be brought under control, natural gas seems like it will be a big 
> economic driver for a while.
> - Original Message -
> From: Joshua Thorp
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> Sent: Tuesday, February 28, 2012 8:01 PM
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Good Question - Should the United States join OPEC?
> 
> This sounds right to me.  There is a lot of finger wagging at Iran for not 
> having domestic capacity for petroleum refinement even though they are a 
> crude exporter.  So I guess capacity works both ways.  The other thing I know 
> is currently a hot topic is natural gas production.  I believe the US has 
> increased its production quite a bit lately and is likely to have a lot more 
> in the future.
> 
> 
> On Feb 28, 2012, at 8:40 PM, Hugh Trenchard wrote:
> 
>> Just as a brief follow up, it seems to me one of the major factors in this 
>> is that U.S. refining capacity has increased so that there is less need to 
>> import refined petroleum products.  I haven't researched this in any detail 
>> and I stand to be corrected on all my assertions, but it seems to me it's 
>> not as though there are any new sources of US domestic supply or significant 
>> increase in technological ability to extract previously hard to obtain oil, 
>> and likely only marginal reduction in demand. There may be some, but my 
>> thought is the hype on this is rather misleading.  Again I don't have the 
>> figures, but my guess is that the vast majority of US crude imports likely 
>> still come from Canada, Mexico, and other western hemisphere nations, which 
>> the U.S. refining companies refine and re-sell as petroleum products, both 
>> for domestic use and to export abroad.
>>  
>> The link below shows some of the definitions used in the petroleum/fuels 
>> industry. From my skeptical standpoint, the hype could mislead the American 
>> public toward a false sense of security.  I suppose if it stimulates the 
>> economy, then that's good, but if it gets people guzzling more gas, then 
>> it's really just a fool's game.
>>  
>> http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/TblDefs/pet_move_imp_tbldef2.asp
>>  
>> From the link: "Petroleum products are obtained from the processing of crude 
>> oil (including lease condensate), natural gas, and other hydrocarbon 
>> compounds. Petroleum products include unfinished oils, liquefied petroleum 
>> gases, pentanes plus, aviation gasoline, motor gasoline, naphtha-type jet 
>> fuel, kerosene-type jet fuel, kerosene, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel 
>> oil, petrochemical feedstocks, special naphthas, lubricants, waxes, 
>> petroleum coke, asphalt, road oil, still gas, and miscellaneous products."
>> - Original Message -
>> From: Russ Abbott
>> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
>> Cc: Hugh Trenchard
>> Sent: Monday, February 27, 2012 7:47 PM
>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] A Good Question - Should the United States join OPEC?
>> 
>> We exported more petroleum products, not more oil. We are still net oil 
>> importers.
>>  
>> -- Russ Abbott
>> _
>>   Professor, Computer Science
>>   California State University, Los Angeles
>> 
>>   Google voice: 747-999-5105
>>   Google+: https://plus.google.com/1148

Re: [FRIAM] FlowingData - Live coding and inventing on principle

[David Mirly]

Could someone repost the link to the talk?

Thanks.

On Feb 23, 2012, at 10:01 AM, Stephen Guerin wrote:

> This link almost got past me as it got pushed down in my queue waiting
> to be watched. Thanks to Josh and Roger yesterday at lunch for
> recommending it.
> 
> Definitely one of the better talks in the last 6 months for me.
> 
> Bruce, it seems one could just reload the script on change without
> having to mess with the compiler.
> 
> -Stephen
> 
> On Tue, Feb 21, 2012 at 11:28 PM, Bruce Sherwood
>  wrote:
>> Tom, thanks much for advertising Bret Victor's fascinating talk.
>> 
>> The programming language he's using is JavaScript, with the display made on
>> a 2D "canvas" element of a web page. Evidently he has modified the
>> JavaScript compiler to compile incrementally, compiling just the line of
>> code that has been changed.
>> 
>> His various demos, not just the JavaScript demos, are extremely interesting,
>> but also of high interest is his passionate exposition of the importance of
>> starting from a principle.
>> 
>> Bruce
>> 
>> On Tue, Feb 21, 2012 at 4:44 PM, Tom Johnson  wrote:
>>> 
>>> Yes, Nathan's right.  This is worth watching.
>>> After you've seen this, do any of you know what program this guy is using
>>> to display his code-building and editing in real time, i.e. without
>>> compiling?
>>> 
>>> -tom
>>> 
>>> 
>> 
>> 
>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
>> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
> 
> 
> 
> -- 
> --- -. .   ..-. .. ...    - .-- ---   ..-. .. ... 
> stephen.gue...@redfish.com 
> office: 505.995.0206 mobile: 505.577.5828
> 
> redfish.com |  simtable.com  |  sfcomplex.org
> 
> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org



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[FRIAM] Nice metaphor

[David Mirly]

Humans acting as individuals forecast fairly well and can be proactive.  For 
the most part, our institutions can not.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-18/descended-from-apes-acting-as-slime-molds-commentary-by-nathan-myhrvold.html

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Re: [FRIAM] Name this spider

[David Mirly]

I used to live in Wichita, Ks. and my house was infested with brown's.

I once got bitten on the inside of my arm and it quickly started looking 
"scary".

A trip to the minor emergency center and a steroid shot was all that I needed.

Other's people's mileage will vary, of course, based on their physiology.

On Oct 11, 2010, at 11:16 AM, Nicholas Thompson wrote:

> Pamela,
>  
> I stand corrected and warned.
>  
> Given that the Hospital here is such a mixed bag, I wonder if the collective 
> wisdom of this list might produce a “spider bite center” in the country which 
> one could call into if needed.  I am terrified for the children.  What did 
> the healer do?  Does your techie still have his hand?  I found the loving 
> descriptions of progressive necrosis on the web particularly alarming. 
>  
> Nick
>  
> From: friam-boun...@redfish.com [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] On Behalf 
> Of Pamela McCorduck
> Sent: Monday, October 11, 2010 11:02 AM
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Name this spider
>  
> One of my computer techies was bitten by a brown recluse in El Dorado. All 
> the rest is true--no help from the hospital, a wound that grew and grew. 
> Finally he found a local folk healer who helped. He was very skeptical but by 
> then desperate. I've been banging my open hand first against anything I 
> needed to probe into, from the wires behind my computer (which is where his 
> was lurking) to the woodpile, to... They are shy and would rather run away, 
> but if startled, will bite.
>  
>  
>  
>  
> On Oct 11, 2010, at 12:23 PM, Nicholas Thompson wrote:
> 
> 
> Carl, it never occurred to me to confide in my spiders.  I will reconsider 
> that policy on your recommendation.
>  
> According to my books, the brown recluse doesn’t make it beyond the 100th 
> meridian (blood or otherwise).  She has a local cousin, “desert recluse” or 
> some such whose bite is not a problem.
>  
> What I learned from the brief reading on the I-net and elsewhere is that 
> there are no medical miracles to deal with these bites.  I had always assumed 
> I would rush down to St. Vincents, and if I got there soon enough, they would 
> give me a shot, and that would be the end of it.  Apparently not so. 
> Particularly if children are bitten. 
>  
> Nick
>  
> From: friam-boun...@redfish.com [mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com] On Behalf 
> Of Carl Tollander
> Sent: Friday, October 08, 2010 10:23 PM
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Name this spider
>  
> Black Widows - Shiny long legs, hourglass on back - worry some, as they can 
> get agressive and the bites are persistently painful.  Ubiquitous and the big 
> one's can be resilient against 2x4's.  They make more.  Lots more.
> Brown Recluse - All brown, hides in slight creases on a newspaper - worry 
> more due to cellular toxins.
> Wolf - Short legs, big body - not so much worry, just don't mess with it.  
> They do bite, but they keep to themselves unless molested.   I call the one 
> over my front door "Kong".   From the description, probably what you have.
> Everything else, leave 'em be, they're beneficial, bites not fun but not 
> dangerous, probably.   Good listeners.
> 
> On 10/8/10 7:59 PM, Robert J. Cordingley wrote:
>   Hoping there's someone on this list that knows something about spiders in 
> New Mexico... There were two of these hanging out just on the outside of my 
> house in Santa Fe.  One had made a large somewhat circular web about 2 ft 
> across.  At night it would sit in the middle, during the day it would hide in 
> a corner.  You can get an idea of the size from the tines of the dining fork. 
>   I think they are big.   I've not yet been successful in finding anything 
> online that seems to come any where close.  Any ideas on what type it is, 
> should I be worried? 
> 
> Let me know if you'd like a higher res. image. 
> 
> Thanks, 
> Robert C 
> 
> 
> 
>  
>  
> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
>  
> "How quickly weeks glide away in such a city as New York, especially when you 
> reckon among your friends some of the most agreeable people in either 
> hemisphere."
>Fanny Trollope, "Domestic Manners of the Americans"
>  
>  
>  
> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org


FRIAM Applied Complexity 

Re: [FRIAM] The Best 10 Fictional Works

[David Mirly]

I make no claims about being among the "10 Best" but here are a few selections 
not previously mentioned.  

Cat's Cradle - Kurt Vonnegut
Candide - Voltaire
Perhaps something by John Steinbeck?  I guess the obvious is The Grapes of 
Wrath but I hated it for some reason (perhaps because I grew up in Oklahoma?).  
I liked Cannery Row.


and maybe for the kiddies... Captains Courageous - Rudyard Kipling 


aha!  I might have discovered a latent preference for the letter 'C'!  weird.



On Oct 8, 2010, at 12:44 PM, Robert J. Cordingley wrote:

> Ok, so I've decided my literary education is somewhat lacking and would like 
> to know this group's recommendations for the "10 Best Literary Works" I 
> should read.  They have to be works of fiction and available in English and 
> not just say of 2009 but of all time.  Google searches tend to list the best 
> of a year or be listed by one particular publisher.   This is a good group to 
> poll since you all (most) have at least some kind of scientific/technical 
> bent.  So I know the suggestions will be good ones for me!
> 
> Once I have a list of all suggestions maybe I'll ask you all to vote on them.
> 
> My list currently starts with Frank's recommendation today:
> 
>"Blood Meridian: Or the Evening Redness in the West" by Cormac McCarthy
> 
> Thanks!
> Robert C.
> 
> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org



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Re: [FRIAM] Econ

[David Mirly]

One pop-sci attempt on this subject is "Programming the Universe..." by Seth 
Lloyd.  I have lost my copy to the "friend-borrowing-black-hole" but I do 
remember the book having an actual equation or two.  I thought it was fairly 
well written.




On Apr 29, 2010, at 9:47 AM, Owen Densmore wrote:

>> Yet another interesting article from the economist.
> 
> Owen
> 
> 
> I am an iPad, resistance is futile!
> 
> Begin forwarded message:
> 
>> A QUANTUM CALCULATION
>> Apr 22nd 2010  
>> 
>> 
>> A physicist argues that information is at the root of everything
>> 
>> DECODING REALITY: THE UNIVERSE AS QUANTUM INFORMATION. By Vlatko
>> Vedral. OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS; 256 PAGES; $29.95 AND GBP16.99. Buy
>> from Amazon.com[1], Amazon.co.uk[2]
>> 
>> 
>> ONE of the most elusive goals in modern physics has turned out to be
>> the creation of a grand unified theory combining general relativity and
>> quantum mechanics, the two pillars of 20th-century physics. General
>> relativity deals with gravity and time and space; quantum mechanics
>> with the microscopic workings of matter. Both are incredibly successful
>> in their own domains, but they are inconsistent with one another. 
>> 
>> For decades physicists have tried to put the two together. At the heart
>> of the quest lies the question, of what is the universe made? Is it
>> atoms of matter, as most people learned in school? Or some sort of
>> energy? String theory, currently a popular idea, holds that the
>> universe is made up of tiny vibrating strings. Other equally esoteric
>> candidates abound. Indeed, cynics claim that there are as many grand
>> unified theories as there are theoretical physicists attempting
>> unification.
>> 
>> Now Vlatko Vedral, an Oxford physicist, examines the claim that bits of
>> information are the universe's basic units, and the universe as a whole
>> is a giant quantum computer. He argues that all of reality can be
>> explained if readers accept that information is at the root of
>> everything.
>> 
>> So what is information? Mr Vedral's notion of information is not the
>> somewhat fuzzy concept most people have of it, but a precise
>> mathematical definition that owes itself to Claude Shannon, an American
>> mathematician considered to be the father of "information theory".
>> Shannon worked at Bell Labs, at the time the research arm of AT&T,
>> a telephone giant, and in the 1940s became interested in how much
>> information could be sent over a noisy telephone connection. This led
>> him to calculate that the information content of any event was
>> proportional to the logarithm of its inverse probability of occurrence.
>> (Unlike many popular-science books that eschew equations, Mr Vedral
>> includes a couple and tries his best to explain them to the reader.)
>> What does the equation mean? As Mr Vedral points out, it says that an
>> unexpected, infrequent event contains much more information than a more
>> regular happening.
>> 
>> Once he has defined information, Mr Vedral proceeds to show how
>> information theory can be applied to biology, physics, economics,
>> sociology and philosophy. These are the most interesting parts of the
>> book. Of particular note is the chapter on placing bets. Mr Vedral
>> gives a good description of how Shannon's information theory can be
>> applied to winning at blackjack or in buying shares (Shannon and his
>> friends made fortunes in Las Vegas as well as on the stockmarket). And
>> his exposition of climate change and how to outwit the CIA make
>> entertaining reading. One quibble: Mr Vedral often digresses from the
>> point at hand, so the overall effect tends to be a bit meandering.
>> 
>> Mr Vedral's professional interests lie in quantum computing and quantum
>> information science, which use the laws of quantum mechanics
>> respectively to build powerful computers and render codes unbreakable.
>> There is a lot of discussion of both, which is very welcome because
>> there are not many popular science books that cover these relatively
>> young fields. Quantum computers, as Mr Vedral points out, "are not a
>> distant dream". Though still rudimentary, "they can solve some
>> important problems for us that conventional computers cannot."
>> 
>> Unusually for a physicist, Mr Vedral spends a fair bit of time talking
>> about religious views, such as how God created the universe. He asks
>> whether something can come out of nothing. Throughout the ages
>> philosophers and theologians have debated this question with respect to
>> Judeo-Christian faiths, in which dogma holds that the world was created
>> from the void, CREATION EX NIHILO. Others side with King Lear who tells
>> Cordelia that "Nothing can come of nothing." Mr Vedral makes a
>> persuasive argument for a third option: information can be created out
>> of nothing.
>> 
>> -
>> [1] http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0199237697/theeconomists-20 
>> [2]
>> http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/ASIN/0199237697/economistshop-

Re: [FRIAM] (advice needed!)

[David Mirly]

Siddharth,

You might want to take a look at Portland State's Systems Science program.

http://www.pdx.edu/sysc/

It might have the multi-disciplinary angle you are wanting.

There was mention of Melanie Mitchell's Complexity book on a previous 
post...She is a professor at PSU in the computer science department.  She is 
involved with the systems science program via this computer science link.  
Though I believe she is going on sabbatical for a year.


On Mar 22, 2010, at 4:22 PM, siddharth wrote:

> Vladimir - 
> (lurking does perhaps help in today's date, atleast only for those not 
> located in the proximity of such location-specific lists? and ofcourse, its 
> also a default position when your interests cut across numerous domains- and 
> hence lists!)
> you're right about the language issue - even a basic word in the complexity 
> debate- eg. 'modeling'- is interpreted/understood slightly differently in 
> architecture..its easier when they mean things totally different, like your 
> example- its really tricky when they mean things almost the same, yet not - 
> these micro-shifts in meaning make things, well, complex-er!
> thanks!
> 
> 
> All - 
> still waiting for some advice, if there exists some magical place that allows 
> non-traditional paths to learning/immersing into studies of complexity, and 
> then feeding that back into other disciplines...via a Masters/PhD...(after 
> all the claims of complexity being inherently trans/multi-disciplinary, its a 
> bit disheartening to know the doors arent totally open to alternate 
> backgrounds...!)
> 
> (hm, Owen- perhaps that could be my first wish! 
> a Friam resource page for courses/labs/schools, and a list of 
> interdisciplinary global 'research projects' for those interested, from the 
> list, to collaborate/participate - the many pathways to complexity...!)
> oh wait, that's 2 wishes.. :-)
> 
> 
> cheers,
> siddharth
> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org


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Re: [FRIAM] Mathematics and Music

[David Mirly]

Glenn, I personally agree with your analysis of what mathematics is  
either in large part or wholly.

But there are others who do not.  The field of mathematical philosophy  
has many branches of opposing belief.

None of which has been proven for the most part and the subject has  
mostly languished for the last 100 years
or so.  I suppose mainly due to Gödel and our interpretation and use  
of his work.

One of the more opposite views, however, is the Platonist view (I  
think I have that right) where mathematical concepts
are a set of universal truths and we just discover them as opposed to  
creating them.

We touched on this many months (maybe even a year) ago when someone (I  
think Paul?) suggested, perhaps impishly,
that pi was "magic" which of course raised my hackles.  But I have to  
admit it is strange how pi, e and other transcendental
numbers pop up in a number of places mathematically.  Others pointed  
that out when I protested, I don't remember their
names either - sorry.

We have also talked about the lack of rigorous mathematical  
representation of complexity and that being a barrier to progress
in the science.  So I think conversations like these are very relevant  
and necessary.


On Jul 11, 2008, at 11:58 AM, glen e. p. ropella wrote:

> Nicholas Thompson wrote:
>> Somebody called it "neutral", i.e., neither of the mind nor of the  
>> world by lying between.
>
> This is a weird discussion.  But, it seems like I ought to point out
> that math is a language just like any other.  Granted, it is less like
> English and more like first order logic; but, it's a language none  
> the less.
>
> So, the study of mathematics is exactly analogous to linguistics.   
> It's
> not that math isn't _about_ anything, any more than English isn't  
> about
> anything.  Languages are methods by which we communicate, describe,  
> and
> represent.  So, the study of language is the methodology of
> communication, description, and representation.
>
> Various constructs (stories, arguments, etc.) in the language (e.g.  
> the
> Calculus) do build up over time.  But we have to distinguish between a
> build up of the language, itself (methods in the toolbox), versus a
> build up of any given construct within the language.
>
> It's been shown (dead horse alert) that mathematics, itself, as the
> study of a set of formal languages, is ill-defined in the same sense
> (but more precisely) that English is ill-defined.  But there are
> particular constructs within mathematics that are well-defined.
>
> Mathematics, as a language, is a toolbox created, evolved, and used by
> humans to describe aspects of reality.  The constructs in math like  
> the
> Calculus represent some idealization/abstraction/aspect of reality  
> (e.g.
> the apparent smoothness of spatio-temporal extent, velocities,
> acceleration, etc.).  Other constructs described in math (e.g. graphs)
> describe other (again particular) aspects of reality.
>
> But it is a mistake to confuse the language with the constructs in the
> language.  That's like confusing a John Grisham novel  (a particular
> construct) with English (the language in which the construct is  
> written).
>
> -- 
> glen e. p. ropella, 971-219-3846, http://tempusdictum.com
>
>
> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org



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Re: [FRIAM] Google & IBM giving students a distributed systems lab using Hadoop

[David Mirly]

I am currently in an Agent Based Simulation class and I am going to  
do a report comparing and contrasting ABS
in parallel (distributed, etc.) environments vs. running a simulation  
in a purely sequential environment.

It seems obvious to me that you could get very different results from  
one computational architecture vs. another.

Does anyone have any experience with truly parallel systems in this  
regard they would like to share?

Thanks!



On Oct 10, 2007, at 7:43 PM, Owen Densmore wrote:

> "Super computing" is facing an interesting challenge with the advent
> of multi-core, multi-memory, blade/cluster/grid systems.
>
> The issue is the architecture one uses for powerful architectures.
> It's very difficult to have a generalized system that works well over
> a number of application architectures.  And the choices are becoming
> larger by the minute.  The newer "blade" systems offer both multi-
> processor and shared memory systems.  They can be configured as
> clusters or as a sorta many processor system looking like a single
> memory system .. far easier to program.  Grid systems are popular,
> and figuring out how to adapt to the latest hardware advances.
>
> My guess is any realistic solution will be hybrid, combining the
> features of all these large scale architectures.
>
> Here's the gotcha: how does it impact the programming language used?
> One wants an "agile" multi-processor, multi-memory architecture that
> can be reconfigured for advances in hardware and software.  Thus far,
> there's no silver bullet.
>
>  -- Owen [EMAIL PROTECTED]
> Beer is proof that God loves us, and wants us to be happy.
>
> On Oct 10, 2007, at 9:48 AM, Tom Johnson wrote:
>
>> FYI.  Following on a brief discussion Tuesday at the data mining
>> session
>>
>> Google & IBM giving students a distributed systems lab using Hadoop
>>
>> Posted: 09 Oct 2007 04:07 PM CDT
>>
>> By Jesse Robbins
>>
>> Google & IBM have partnered to give university students hands-on
>> experience developing software for large-scale distributed systems.
>> This initiative focuses on parallel processing for large data sets
>> using Hadoop, an open source implementation of Google's MapReduce.
>> (See Tim's earlier post about Yahoo & Hadoop )
>>
>> "The goal of this initiative is to improve computer science
>> students' knowledge of highly parallel computing practices to
>> better address the emerging paradigm of large-scale distributed
>> computing. IBM and Google are teaming up to provide hardware,
>> software and services to augment university curricula and expand
>> research horizons. With their combined resources, the companies
>> hope to lower the financial and logistical barriers for the
>> academic community to explore this emerging model of computing."
>> The project currently includes the University of Washington,
>> Carnegie-Mellon University, MIT, Stanford, UC Berkeley and the
>> University of Maryland. Students in participating classes will have
>> access to a dedicated cluster of "several hundred computers"
>> running Linux under XEN virtualization. The project is expected to
>> expand to thousands of processors and eventually be open to
>> researchers and students at other institutions.
>>
>> As part of this effort, Google and the University of Washington
>> have released a Creative Commons licensed curriculum to help teach
>> distributed systems concepts and techniques. IBM is also providing
>> Hadoop plug-ins for Eclipse.
>>
>> Note: You can also build similar systems using Hadoop with Amazon
>> EC2 . Tom White recently posted an excellent guide and Powerset has
>> been using this in production for quite some time.
>>
>>
>> --tj
>> -- 
>> ==
>> J. T. Johnson
>> Institute for Analytic Journalism -- Santa Fe, NM USA
>> www.analyticjournalism.com
>> 505.577.6482(c) 505.473.9646(h)
>> http://www.jtjohnson.com [EMAIL PROTECTED]
>>
>> "You never change things by fighting the existing reality.
>> To change something, build a new model that makes the
>> existing model obsolete."
>>-- Buckminster
>> Fuller
>> ==
>> 
>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
>> lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
>
>
> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
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Re: [FRIAM] Does this include you, Owen?

[David Mirly]

For Apple stock in particular, I would zoom out a little further than  
a few days and you will
see that it is fairly normal for this stock to have really wide  
swings for a variety of reasons and
sometimes for no reason at all (at least that I can tell).  For  
instance, it was way down into
the 120's when the credit news first started to come out a few weeks  
ago.  Apple stock has
been heavily traded and very volatile for the last few years.  So I  
don't really think Apple's
management is guided very much by their day to day stock price.  At  
least I hope not.

On Sep 7, 2007, at 9:53 AM, Raymond Parks wrote:

> Folks,
>
>   The really interesting part of this situation is Apple's stock
> performance since Tuesday.  I think that drove the refund as much  
> as the
> complaints on user forums.
>
>   Or, perhaps, the stock price drop is investors fearing that the real
> reason for the iPhone price drop is slow sales.  If so, they're not
> going to resolve that with a price drop - they might get somewhere by
> getting out of the exclusive AT&T contract.  I wonder if Apple had
> counted on the hacker community opening up the iPhone for use on T- 
> Mobile?
>
>   Their  for the new iPod release may also have helped to drive  
> the
> stock down by 13 points (from 145) in two days.
>
> -- 
> Ray Parks   [EMAIL PROTECTED]
> Consilient Heuristician Voice:505-844-4024
> ATA Department  Mobile:505-238-9359
> http://www.sandia.gov/scada Fax:505-844-9641
> http://www.sandia.gov/idart Pager:800-690-5288
> http://www.sandia.gov/redteam2007
>
>
> 
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Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics

[David Mirly]

In 1993, Paul Hawken wrote a good book on externalities titled "The  
Ecology of Commerce".

I imagine most of the readers of this list already know of this book,  
but for those who don't it's
a decent work.

On Aug 12, 2007, at 1:26 PM, Owen Densmore wrote:

> On Aug 12, 2007, at 12:07 PM, Roger Critchlow wrote:
>> On 8/12/07, David Mirly <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>>> 2) It would be wise to attempt to minimize our impacts on such a
>>> complex system when we don't even partially understand the
>>> consequences.
>>
>> Just to beat on the defenders of the status quo some more, their
>> rationale
>> for denying climate change and not messing with the economy is
>> essentially
>> the same:  it, the economy, is a complex system where we don't even
>> partially understand the consequences of even small changes, so it
>> would be
>> wise to minimize our impacts on it.
>>
>> So we have the same rhetoric of conservatism on both sides of the
>> question.
>
> One of the best retorts against the status quo is "total cost" of a
> product, including its entire life cycle.  Many opportunistic
> capitalists "cheat" by leaving much of the cost of their products to
> others.
>
> The computer industry is improving in this regard: offering
> responsible recycling for every product, included in the original
> cost.  Apple lets you send computers back to them at their end of
> life.  HP includes ink jet recycling envelopes.  This is at least
> hopeful.  And Gore, for all his faults, is doing an astounding job of
> raising awareness.
>
>  -- Owen
>
>
>
> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
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Re: [FRIAM] Book trade.

[David Mirly]

Try powells.com.

If you aren't set on owning, your library has the best price of all.   
And if they don't have

a particular title, they will get it from another library somewhere.


On Aug 12, 2007, at 9:49 AM, Marko A. Rodriguez wrote:


Hello,

Does anyone read Greg Egan (Australian Sci-Fi author)? If so, does  
anyone have any of his books that are NOT:


Permutation City
Teranesia
Schilde's Ladder

Most of his books seem to be out of print and are super expensive  
on Amazon. If anyone would like to do some book trading for Greg  
Egan, it would make me happy.


Thanks,

Marko A. Rodriguez
Los Alamos National Laboratory (P362-proto)
Los Alamos, NM 87545
Phone +1 505 606 1691
http://www.soe.ucsc.edu/~okram



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Re: [FRIAM] Edge: The Need for Heretics

[David Mirly]

I can't remember the source (sorry) but I do remember some "expert"  
saying that the problem isn't just that the climate
is warming.  We've already pointed out the the Earth has been much  
hotter than it is now.  He said the problem is that
it is warming up too fast (because of human activity) and the  
ecosystem isn't able to adapt as fast.  He gave specific examples
including the current average temperature rate change at various  
latitudes and correlated that with the migration speed of plants,
insects, etc. and said the additional velocity we have added makes  
the temperature change outpace the migration speed of the
organisms.

On the other hand, the Earth has gone through significant climate  
changes before and life has a way of adapting and surviving.  The  
problem
from some peoples perspective is that the surviving organisms may not  
include humans.  For others, that might not be a problem.  ;)

Personally I have enough "evidence" to have the following conclusions.

1) The Earth's climate is changing at a rate that we can observe in  
our lifetime or at least observe within a couple of generations or so.
2) It would be wise to attempt to minimize our impacts on such a  
complex system when we don't even partially understand the consequences.
3) As a whole we are not interested and/or too stupid to minimize our  
impact.  At least until it's too late.



On Aug 12, 2007, at 8:09 AM, Marcus G. Daniels wrote:

> Robert Holmes wrote:
>> But then the rational part of me recognizes that you probably do get
>> far more bang for your buck (in social welfare terms) with these
>> problems: they are (relatively) well understood and interventions  
>> have
>> a rapid effect on a huge number of people. In contrast, climate
>> control is poorly understood and it takes decades to measure the
>> effect. Where would you put your limited $$?
> It depends what's measured.  Climate control may be hard to measure  
> and
> correlate to mitigation efforts but output of CO2 can be identified,
> measured, and mitigated.
> Further it matters what the question is.   For example, if someone  
> owns
> valuable coastal property that risks being underwater in a century,  
> they
> might well care about the impact on their grandkids more than what
> happens to someone they don't know on the other side of the planet.
>
>
> 
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
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Re: [FRIAM] Can you guess the source.

[David Mirly]

I'll play.

Theodore Kaczynski?

Now I have to go see if I am right.  It's scary playing this game and  
quite possibly making a fool of oneself.



On Apr 11, 2007, at 6:10 PM, Nicholas Thompson wrote:



I am curious to know if anybody in Friam-land will recognize the  
following passage.  No Fair using google.


It is NOT from the Gettysburg Address.

"Our work is guided by the sense that we may be the last generation  
in the experiment with living. But we are a minority--the vast  
majority of our people regard the temporary equilibriums of our  
society and world as eternally functional parts. In this is perhaps  
the outstanding paradox; we ourselves are imbued with urgency, yet  
the message of our society is that there is no viable alternative  
to the present. Beneath the reassuring tones of the politicians,  
beneath the common opinion that America will "muddle through,"  
beneath the stagnation of those who have closed their minds to the  
future, is the pervading feeling that there simply are no  
alternatives, that our times have witnessed the exhaustion not only  
of Utopias, but of any new departures as well. Feeling the press of  
complexity upon the emptiness of life, people are fearful of the  
thought that at any moment things might be thrust out of control.  
They fear change itself, since change might smash whatever  
invisible framework seems to hold back chaos for them now. For most  
Americans, all crusades are suspect, threatening. The fact that  
each individual sees apathy in his fellows perpetuates the common  
reluctance to organize for change. The dominant institutions are  
complex enough to blunt the minds of their potential critics, and  
entrenched enough to swiftly dissipate or entirely repel the  
energies of protest and reform, thus limiting human expectancies.  
Then, too, we are a materially improved society, and by our own  
improvements we seem to have weakened the case for further change."



Nicholas S. Thompson
Research Associate, Redfish Group, Santa Fe, NM ([EMAIL PROTECTED])
Professor of Psychology and Ethology, Clark University  
([EMAIL PROTECTED])






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Re: [FRIAM] Fwd: Your chance to attend the TED conference in person...

[David Mirly]

I highly recommend taking a look at www.ted.com.  The nice thing  
about the conference
is that the website publishes past sessions for those like me who  
have zero chance of attending.  ;)


On Feb 10, 2007, at 1:00 AM, Russell Standish wrote:

> Um - pardon my ignorance, but what exactly are TEDtalks?
>
> On Mon, Feb 12, 2007 at 03:36:07PM -0500, [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
>>
>> Hello there, TEDTalks listener.  It's Chris Anderson,  
>> TED's
>> Curator here. A quick note to let you know that we've just opened
>> registration for next year's TED and we welcome new members.
>>
>> Here are the quick bullet points.
>>
>> - TED2008 will take place as usual in Monterey, California
>> - Dates: February 27-March 1, 2008
>> - Theme: "The Big Questions" (details
>> here> 2Eted%2Ecom%2Fted2008% 
>> 2F&tempid=e1458aa30f9c4eabbac487e96237120b&mailid=2c5a8060a0324767aa4 
>> 69e100c75da22>
>> )
>
> -- 
>
> -- 
> --
> A/Prof Russell Standish  Phone 0425 253119 (mobile)
> Mathematics   
> UNSW SYDNEY 2052   [EMAIL PROTECTED]
> Australiahttp://www.hpcoders.com.au
> -- 
> --
>
> 
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Re: [FRIAM] The yin and yang of numbers across cultures

[David Mirly]

Is pi really inherent throughout the universe?

Won't the concept of pi break down in the presence of sufficiently  
strong gravity?
i.e. Euclidian plane geometry is only a good approximation for our  
"normal/every day" applications.



On Dec 6, 2006, at 9:52 AM, [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

There seems to be a constant about the nature of number across all  
cultures: that they have a magically aspect and seem to be an  
integral part of the nature of the universe.  Of course some  
numbers seem to be more magic than others, e.g. Pi.  Why numbers  
are inherent in the universe is another interesting question  
considering wave and field theory. Magic?


cheers Paul Paryski

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Re: [FRIAM] Amazon.com: The Wisdom of Crowds: Books: James Surowiecki

[David Mirly]

I have not personally read the book but it is on my list.

However, I did recently read this article which focuses on the  
negative results of collective thinking.
It does give a mention or two to positive uses of crowd thinking though.

http://www.edge.org/documents/archive/edge183.html


On Jun 5, 2006, at 9:02 PM, Owen Densmore wrote:

> I've been reading this critter:
>http://tinyurl.com/hexhe
> .. and am interested in its application to social modeling, and
> possibly business/organizational modeling.
>
> The thesis is that good decisions can be made by crowds if they are:
> - Diverse
> - Independent
> - Decentralized
> - Good method for aggregating the results.
>
> I started on the book a while back while discouraged after the
> democrats shot themselves in the foot the last election.  Thinking
> crowds were stupid, I was surprised a bit by the author's thesis.
>
> Anyone read it?  Have opinions?  Got ideas how to apply it to
> community modeling?
>
>  -- Owen
>
> Owen Densmore
> http://backspaces.net - http://redfish.com - http://friam.org
>
>
>
> 
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