subject:"\[FRIAM\] Enamine"

EricS writes:

< It seems to me that Mearsheimer’s argument does do an induction for what to 
do next, and it is a 19th-century induction, in which a small number of actors 
simply dictate what the world will do, and there should be some kind of US 
retreat [..] >

There’s another option, possibly within reach, to create the conditions to have 
the current Russian government implode and give Russia the opportunity to join 
NATO.  It’s not like it hasn’t happened before.

From: Friam  On Behalf Of David Eric Smith
Sent: Wednesday, March 9, 2022 3:58 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

It’s a good list of wrongdoings, Roger, and no argument can be sound that 
doesn’t keep it present and active.  Facts are facts.

I wasn’t saying I can’t follow Mearsheimer’s frame or its reasoning.  I was 
saying that the adequacy of working within the frame seems questionable and 
bothers me. To put in a metaphor where I am sure it would be better if I stuck 
to the particulars, it seems like a Baconian error to me: to suppose that (a 
subset of) the facts are self-interpreting.

You mention:
Mearshimer's point of view is not pretty, and fairness is not part of its 
calculus, but it's the way of the world that we, the United States of America, 
have made.  And when we screw up in our enthusiasm for truth, justice, and the 
amurkan way, we should not blame others for the consequences.

I agree, and I also understand that you didn’t say my summary included either 
the word or the theme of blaming anybody (while acknowledging that both the 
political and media rhetoric is full of that).  But I want to reiterate that 
apportioning blame and with it responsibility is the opening part of a 
discussion, but not obviously enough to say what to do next.  It seems to me 
that Mearsheimer’s argument does do an induction for what to do next, and it is 
a 19th-century induction, in which a small number of actors simply dictate what 
the world will do, and there should be some kind of US retreat, after which we 
can conclude (?) that the Russian government will pull back and return directly 
to what they were prioritizing in 2012 (broader-based prosperity, certain 
conditional integrations, etc., while still operating mainly as a 
partly-kleptocratic petro-state, an economic model that is not universal and 
that does bring in other biases in what kind of governance and social structure 
are most robust).  I guess also that Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia will 
recognize that they were duped and quickly withdraw from NATO to become more 
Finland-like buffer states, and that an even easier decision of that kind can 
be reached with respect to Poland and Hungary, since they were backsliders 
anyway.  (I am being absurdist here because, even if one thought Mearsheimer’s 
analysis of the optimal decisions in the past are different from those taken, I 
don’t see what paths to comparable outcomes are available now.)

Here’s one take, on whether there are other dimensions outside Mearsheimer’s 
frame that bear on its adequacy.  A mock-dialogue:

QUESTION: Does the Russian (either) annexation or destruction of Ukraine at 
this time move the world toward or away from a rules-based system of 
international constraint?  How does an analytic answer to that serve as a 
criterion for valuing the event and deciding what to do in response to it?
REJOINDER: Does not exist as a question because the U.S. has taken many actions 
that, by not being constrained, undermined the role of constraint, whether they 
were taken by being misguided or by being cynically self-interested.

QUESTION: There are these patches of geography, often referred to by 
non-IR-specialists as “countries”.  We believe there are people who live there, 
and by a kind of abduction, we imagine those people have preferences, about 
engaging in trade relations or military alliances.  Should decisions they 
adopt, through various internal negotiations — yes, in contexts also shaped by 
external actors — have some right of persistence?
REJOINDER: Does not exist as a question because the U.S. haas taken actions 
that undermine rules-based international relations.

One can try to make the argument that there really are no other questions, 
because there is only ONE QUESTION, which is the one on which Mearsheimer’s 
frame settles.  But I think that is a hard argument to make analytically.  I 
recognize the possibility that, with short-term and blunt-force choices, the 
identities of actors and their lack of trustworthiness may make this frame so 
dominant that it overshadows most else.

But in any case, if those other questions do exist, even in a world where the 
U.S. haas taken actions that undermine rules-based international relations, I 
imagine a discussion of them would include elements that arise in this:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/08/podcasts/transcript-ezra-klein-interviews-fiona-hill.html

I don’t even know how

Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

What is going to happen in Ukraine is that Russia is going to teach Ukraine
a lesson for flirting with the EU, NATO and western liberalism and signing
that NATO document in November 2021.

Putin is going to annex the Eastern and Southern parts of Ukraine by
setting them up as autonomous regions/states within Ukraines' boundaries as
Russian protectorates. He is then going to make Kyiv sue for peace under
his terms with Russia taking over some aspects of Ukraine's foreign affairs
and defence/security (think back to the former East Germany). Putin has no
intention of taking over Ukraine or ruling it.

Russian's are very direct communicators (like Klingons), Putin, is doing
exactly what he said he would do before the invasion started. This is a
special military operation, not an invasion. The sooner Ukraine folds up
the better for everyone, and especially the Ukranians, since it's the US
and UK who are stoking the fires for their own selfish (war mongering
defence industry) interests.  And interestingly the Muslim world is lining
up behind the Russia-China axis as nobody really trusts the US and UK
anymore over there.

On Wed, Mar 9, 2022 at 9:57 PM Marcus Daniels  wrote:

> EricS writes:
>
>
>
> < It seems to me that Mearsheimer’s argument does do an induction for what
> to do next, and it is a 19th-century induction, in which a small number of
> actors simply dictate what the world will do, and there should be some kind
> of US retreat [..] >
>
>
>
> There’s another option, possibly within reach, to create the conditions to
> have the current Russian government implode and give Russia the opportunity
> to join NATO.  It’s not like it hasn’t happened before.
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam  *On Behalf Of *David Eric Smith
> *Sent:* Wednesday, March 9, 2022 3:58 AM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam@redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Enamine
>
>
>
> It’s a good list of wrongdoings, Roger, and no argument can be sound that
> doesn’t keep it present and active.  Facts are facts.
>
>
>
> I wasn’t saying I can’t follow Mearsheimer’s frame or its reasoning.  I
> was saying that the adequacy of working within the frame seems questionable
> and bothers me. To put in a metaphor where I am sure it would be better if
> I stuck to the particulars, it seems like a Baconian error to me: to
> suppose that (a subset of) the facts are self-interpreting.
>
>
>
> You mention:
>
> Mearshimer's point of view is not pretty, and fairness is not part of its
> calculus, but it's the way of the world that we, the United States of
> America, have made.  And when we screw up in our enthusiasm for truth,
> justice, and the amurkan way, we should not blame others for the
> consequences.
>
>
>
> I agree, and I also understand that you didn’t say my summary included
> either the word or the theme of blaming anybody (while acknowledging that
> both the political and media rhetoric is full of that).  But I want to
> reiterate that apportioning blame and with it responsibility is the opening
> part of a discussion, but not obviously enough to say what to do next.  It
> seems to me that Mearsheimer’s argument does do an induction for what to do
> next, and it is a 19th-century induction, in which a small number of actors
> simply dictate what the world will do, and there should be some kind of US
> retreat, after which we can conclude (?) that the Russian government will
> pull back and return directly to what they were prioritizing in 2012
> (broader-based prosperity, certain conditional integrations, etc., while
> still operating mainly as a partly-kleptocratic petro-state, an economic
> model that is not universal and that does bring in other biases in what
> kind of governance and social structure are most robust).  I guess also
> that Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia will recognize that they were duped and
> quickly withdraw from NATO to become more Finland-like buffer states, and
> that an even easier decision of that kind can be reached with respect to
> Poland and Hungary, since they were backsliders anyway.  (I am being
> absurdist here because, even if one thought Mearsheimer’s analysis of the
> optimal decisions in the past are different from those taken, I don’t see
> what paths to comparable outcomes are available now.)
>
>
>
> Here’s one take, on whether there are other dimensions outside
> Mearsheimer’s frame that bear on its adequacy.  A mock-dialogue:
>
>
>
> QUESTION: Does the Russian (either) annexation or destruction of Ukraine
> at this time move the world toward or away from a rules-based system of
> international constraint?  How does an analytic answer to that serve as a
> criterion for valuing the e

Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

That sounds plausible.   What I don’t see is a release of sanctions before a 
lot of damage is done to the Russian economy.   North America doesn’t really 
need the oil, although I could see Germany and others folding when winter comes 
again.   As long as the sanctions hold up, Putin is in for a world of hurt.

From: Friam  On Behalf Of Sarbajit Roy
Sent: Wednesday, March 9, 2022 9:02 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

What is going to happen in Ukraine is that Russia is going to teach Ukraine a 
lesson for flirting with the EU, NATO and western liberalism and signing that 
NATO document in November 2021.

Putin is going to annex the Eastern and Southern parts of Ukraine by setting 
them up as autonomous regions/states within Ukraines' boundaries as Russian 
protectorates. He is then going to make Kyiv sue for peace under his terms with 
Russia taking over some aspects of Ukraine's foreign affairs and 
defence/security (think back to the former East Germany). Putin has no 
intention of taking over Ukraine or ruling it.

Russian's are very direct communicators (like Klingons), Putin, is doing 
exactly what he said he would do before the invasion started. This is a special 
military operation, not an invasion. The sooner Ukraine folds up the better for 
everyone, and especially the Ukranians, since it's the US and UK who are 
stoking the fires for their own selfish (war mongering defence industry) 
interests.  And interestingly the Muslim world is lining up behind the 
Russia-China axis as nobody really trusts the US and UK anymore over there.

On Wed, Mar 9, 2022 at 9:57 PM Marcus Daniels 
mailto:mar...@snoutfarm.com>> wrote:
EricS writes:

< It seems to me that Mearsheimer’s argument does do an induction for what to 
do next, and it is a 19th-century induction, in which a small number of actors 
simply dictate what the world will do, and there should be some kind of US 
retreat [..] >

There’s another option, possibly within reach, to create the conditions to have 
the current Russian government implode and give Russia the opportunity to join 
NATO.  It’s not like it hasn’t happened before.

From: Friam mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com>> On 
Behalf Of David Eric Smith
Sent: Wednesday, March 9, 2022 3:58 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
mailto:friam@redfish.com>>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

It’s a good list of wrongdoings, Roger, and no argument can be sound that 
doesn’t keep it present and active.  Facts are facts.

I wasn’t saying I can’t follow Mearsheimer’s frame or its reasoning.  I was 
saying that the adequacy of working within the frame seems questionable and 
bothers me. To put in a metaphor where I am sure it would be better if I stuck 
to the particulars, it seems like a Baconian error to me: to suppose that (a 
subset of) the facts are self-interpreting.

You mention:
Mearshimer's point of view is not pretty, and fairness is not part of its 
calculus, but it's the way of the world that we, the United States of America, 
have made.  And when we screw up in our enthusiasm for truth, justice, and the 
amurkan way, we should not blame others for the consequences.

I agree, and I also understand that you didn’t say my summary included either 
the word or the theme of blaming anybody (while acknowledging that both the 
political and media rhetoric is full of that).  But I want to reiterate that 
apportioning blame and with it responsibility is the opening part of a 
discussion, but not obviously enough to say what to do next.  It seems to me 
that Mearsheimer’s argument does do an induction for what to do next, and it is 
a 19th-century induction, in which a small number of actors simply dictate what 
the world will do, and there should be some kind of US retreat, after which we 
can conclude (?) that the Russian government will pull back and return directly 
to what they were prioritizing in 2012 (broader-based prosperity, certain 
conditional integrations, etc., while still operating mainly as a 
partly-kleptocratic petro-state, an economic model that is not universal and 
that does bring in other biases in what kind of governance and social structure 
are most robust).  I guess also that Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia will 
recognize that they were duped and quickly withdraw from NATO to become more 
Finland-like buffer states, and that an even easier decision of that kind can 
be reached with respect to Poland and Hungary, since they were backsliders 
anyway.  (I am being absurdist here because, even if one thought Mearsheimer’s 
analysis of the optimal decisions in the past are different from those taken, I 
don’t see what paths to comparable outcomes are available now.)

Here’s one take, on whether there are other dimensions outside Mearsheimer’s 
frame that bear on its adequacy.  A mock-dialogue:

QUESTION: Does the Russian (either) annexation or destruc

Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

Not really,
Russia is low down on the list of world economies and the Russian people
are quite used to deprivation if they see a positive outcome soon.
Putin paints it as an "EXISTENTIAL" threat for Mother Russia which had to
be done, no matter what.

On Wed, Mar 9, 2022 at 10:41 PM Marcus Daniels  wrote:

> That sounds plausible.   What I don’t see is a release of sanctions before
> a lot of damage is done to the Russian economy.   North America doesn’t
> really need the oil, although I could see Germany and others folding when
> winter comes again.   As long as the sanctions hold up, Putin is in for a
> world of hurt.
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam  *On Behalf Of *Sarbajit Roy
> *Sent:* Wednesday, March 9, 2022 9:02 AM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam@redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Enamine
>
>
>
> What is going to happen in Ukraine is that Russia is going to teach
> Ukraine a lesson for flirting with the EU, NATO and western liberalism and
> signing that NATO document in November 2021.
>
> Putin is going to annex the Eastern and Southern parts of Ukraine by
> setting them up as autonomous regions/states within Ukraines' boundaries as
> Russian protectorates. He is then going to make Kyiv sue for peace under
> his terms with Russia taking over some aspects of Ukraine's foreign affairs
> and defence/security (think back to the former East Germany). Putin has no
> intention of taking over Ukraine or ruling it.
>
> Russian's are very direct communicators (like Klingons), Putin, is doing
> exactly what he said he would do before the invasion started. This is a
> special military operation, not an invasion. The sooner Ukraine folds up
> the better for everyone, and especially the Ukranians, since it's the US
> and UK who are stoking the fires for their own selfish (war mongering
> defence industry) interests.  And interestingly the Muslim world is lining
> up behind the Russia-China axis as nobody really trusts the US and UK
> anymore over there.
>
>
>
> On Wed, Mar 9, 2022 at 9:57 PM Marcus Daniels 
> wrote:
>
> EricS writes:
>
>
>
> < It seems to me that Mearsheimer’s argument does do an induction for what
> to do next, and it is a 19th-century induction, in which a small number of
> actors simply dictate what the world will do, and there should be some kind
> of US retreat [..] >
>
>
>
> There’s another option, possibly within reach, to create the conditions to
> have the current Russian government implode and give Russia the opportunity
> to join NATO.  It’s not like it hasn’t happened before.
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam  *On Behalf Of *David Eric Smith
> *Sent:* Wednesday, March 9, 2022 3:58 AM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam@redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Enamine
>
>
>
> It’s a good list of wrongdoings, Roger, and no argument can be sound that
> doesn’t keep it present and active.  Facts are facts.
>
>
>
> I wasn’t saying I can’t follow Mearsheimer’s frame or its reasoning.  I
> was saying that the adequacy of working within the frame seems questionable
> and bothers me. To put in a metaphor where I am sure it would be better if
> I stuck to the particulars, it seems like a Baconian error to me: to
> suppose that (a subset of) the facts are self-interpreting.
>
>
>
> You mention:
>
> Mearshimer's point of view is not pretty, and fairness is not part of its
> calculus, but it's the way of the world that we, the United States of
> America, have made.  And when we screw up in our enthusiasm for truth,
> justice, and the amurkan way, we should not blame others for the
> consequences.
>
>
>
> I agree, and I also understand that you didn’t say my summary included
> either the word or the theme of blaming anybody (while acknowledging that
> both the political and media rhetoric is full of that).  But I want to
> reiterate that apportioning blame and with it responsibility is the opening
> part of a discussion, but not obviously enough to say what to do next.  It
> seems to me that Mearsheimer’s argument does do an induction for what to do
> next, and it is a 19th-century induction, in which a small number of actors
> simply dictate what the world will do, and there should be some kind of US
> retreat, after which we can conclude (?) that the Russian government will
> pull back and return directly to what they were prioritizing in 2012
> (broader-based prosperity, certain conditional integrations, etc., while
> still operating mainly as a partly-kleptocratic petro-state, an economic
> model that is not universal and that does bring in other biases in what
> kind of governance an

Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

I guess it is possible that the northern activities are just an intended 
distraction, but it kind of looks like they are untrained for what they are 
doing.
Incompetence and deprivation are related.   
https://russiandefpolicy.com/2021/12/27/russian-military-pay-still-lags/
What’s the positive outcome?  That the border is a little better protected?   I 
mean, obviously, Putin will lie about “good outcomes”.

A contrast to Norway, which has a high standard of living but is still 
basically an oil economy.   Norway which pours money into education rather than 
defense like the US.   I mean, Russian mights like to be like Norwegians, 
driving around their own Teslas.

From: Friam  On Behalf Of Sarbajit Roy
Sent: Wednesday, March 9, 2022 9:17 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

Not really,
Russia is low down on the list of world economies and the Russian people are 
quite used to deprivation if they see a positive outcome soon.
Putin paints it as an "EXISTENTIAL" threat for Mother Russia which had to be 
done, no matter what.

On Wed, Mar 9, 2022 at 10:41 PM Marcus Daniels 
mailto:mar...@snoutfarm.com>> wrote:
That sounds plausible.   What I don’t see is a release of sanctions before a 
lot of damage is done to the Russian economy.   North America doesn’t really 
need the oil, although I could see Germany and others folding when winter comes 
again.   As long as the sanctions hold up, Putin is in for a world of hurt.

From: Friam mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com>> On 
Behalf Of Sarbajit Roy
Sent: Wednesday, March 9, 2022 9:02 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
mailto:friam@redfish.com>>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

What is going to happen in Ukraine is that Russia is going to teach Ukraine a 
lesson for flirting with the EU, NATO and western liberalism and signing that 
NATO document in November 2021.

Putin is going to annex the Eastern and Southern parts of Ukraine by setting 
them up as autonomous regions/states within Ukraines' boundaries as Russian 
protectorates. He is then going to make Kyiv sue for peace under his terms with 
Russia taking over some aspects of Ukraine's foreign affairs and 
defence/security (think back to the former East Germany). Putin has no 
intention of taking over Ukraine or ruling it.

Russian's are very direct communicators (like Klingons), Putin, is doing 
exactly what he said he would do before the invasion started. This is a special 
military operation, not an invasion. The sooner Ukraine folds up the better for 
everyone, and especially the Ukranians, since it's the US and UK who are 
stoking the fires for their own selfish (war mongering defence industry) 
interests.  And interestingly the Muslim world is lining up behind the 
Russia-China axis as nobody really trusts the US and UK anymore over there.

On Wed, Mar 9, 2022 at 9:57 PM Marcus Daniels 
mailto:mar...@snoutfarm.com>> wrote:
EricS writes:

< It seems to me that Mearsheimer’s argument does do an induction for what to 
do next, and it is a 19th-century induction, in which a small number of actors 
simply dictate what the world will do, and there should be some kind of US 
retreat [..] >

There’s another option, possibly within reach, to create the conditions to have 
the current Russian government implode and give Russia the opportunity to join 
NATO.  It’s not like it hasn’t happened before.

From: Friam mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com>> On 
Behalf Of David Eric Smith
Sent: Wednesday, March 9, 2022 3:58 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
mailto:friam@redfish.com>>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

It’s a good list of wrongdoings, Roger, and no argument can be sound that 
doesn’t keep it present and active.  Facts are facts.

I wasn’t saying I can’t follow Mearsheimer’s frame or its reasoning.  I was 
saying that the adequacy of working within the frame seems questionable and 
bothers me. To put in a metaphor where I am sure it would be better if I stuck 
to the particulars, it seems like a Baconian error to me: to suppose that (a 
subset of) the facts are self-interpreting.

You mention:
Mearshimer's point of view is not pretty, and fairness is not part of its 
calculus, but it's the way of the world that we, the United States of America, 
have made.  And when we screw up in our enthusiasm for truth, justice, and the 
amurkan way, we should not blame others for the consequences.

I agree, and I also understand that you didn’t say my summary included either 
the word or the theme of blaming anybody (while acknowledging that both the 
political and media rhetoric is full of that).  But I want to reiterate that 
apportioning blame and with it responsibility is the opening part of a 
discussion, but not obviously enough to say what to do next.  It seems to me 
that Mearsheimer’s argument does do an induction for what to do next, and it i

Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

2022-03-09 Thread Prof David West

I must agree that sanctions are a feckless response to Putin's aggression, 
past, present, and future. Yes, ordinary people will suffer; both in Russia and 
in the West, but neither policy nor outcomes will be effected and certainly not 
anything resembling regime change. North Korea and Iran are exemplars for the 
(in)effectiveness of sanctions.

davew


On Wed, Mar 9, 2022, at 9:17 AM, Sarbajit Roy wrote:
> Not really,
> Russia is low down on the list of world economies and the Russian people are 
> quite used to deprivation if they see a positive outcome soon.
> Putin paints it as an "EXISTENTIAL" threat for Mother Russia which had to be 
> done, no matter what.
> 
> On Wed, Mar 9, 2022 at 10:41 PM Marcus Daniels  wrote:
>> That sounds plausible.   What I don’t see is a release of sanctions before a 
>> lot of damage is done to the Russian economy.   North America doesn’t really 
>> need the oil, although I could see Germany and others folding when winter 
>> comes again.   As long as the sanctions hold up, Putin is in for a world of 
>> hurt.
>> __ __
>> *From:* Friam  *On Behalf Of *Sarbajit Roy
>> *Sent:* Wednesday, March 9, 2022 9:02 AM
>> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
>> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Enamine
>> 
>> __ __
>> What is going to happen in Ukraine is that Russia is going to teach Ukraine 
>> a lesson for flirting with the EU, NATO and western liberalism and signing 
>> that NATO document in November 2021. 
>> 
>> Putin is going to annex the Eastern and Southern parts of Ukraine by setting 
>> them up as autonomous regions/states within Ukraines' boundaries as Russian 
>> protectorates. He is then going to make Kyiv sue for peace under his terms 
>> with Russia taking over some aspects of Ukraine's foreign affairs and 
>> defence/security (think back to the former East Germany). Putin has no 
>> intention of taking over Ukraine or ruling it. 
>> 
>> Russian's are very direct communicators (like Klingons), Putin, is doing 
>> exactly what he said he would do before the invasion started. This is a 
>> special military operation, not an invasion. The sooner Ukraine folds up the 
>> better for everyone, and especially the Ukranians, since it's the US and UK 
>> who are stoking the fires for their own selfish (war mongering defence 
>> industry) interests.  And interestingly the Muslim world is lining up behind 
>> the Russia-China axis as nobody really trusts the US and UK anymore over 
>> there.
>> 
>> __ __
>> On Wed, Mar 9, 2022 at 9:57 PM Marcus Daniels  
>> wrote:
>>> EricS writes:
>>>  
>>> < It seems to me that Mearsheimer’s argument does do an induction for what 
>>> to do next, and it is a 19th-century induction, in which a small number of 
>>> actors simply dictate what the world will do, and there should be some kind 
>>> of US retreat [..] >
>>>  
>>> There’s another option, possibly within reach, to create the conditions to 
>>> have the current Russian government implode and give Russia the opportunity 
>>> to join NATO.  It’s not like it hasn’t happened before.
>>>  
>>> *From:* Friam  *On Behalf Of *David Eric Smith
>>> *Sent:* Wednesday, March 9, 2022 3:58 AM
>>> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
>>> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Enamine
>>> 
>>>  
>>> It’s a good list of wrongdoings, Roger, and no argument can be sound that 
>>> doesn’t keep it present and active.  Facts are facts.
>>>  
>>> I wasn’t saying I can’t follow Mearsheimer’s frame or its reasoning.  I was 
>>> saying that the adequacy of working within the frame seems questionable and 
>>> bothers me. To put in a metaphor where I am sure it would be better if I 
>>> stuck to the particulars, it seems like a Baconian error to me: to suppose 
>>> that (a subset of) the facts are self-interpreting.  
>>>  
>>> You mention:
 Mearshimer's point of view is not pretty, and fairness is not part of its 
 calculus, but it's the way of the world that we, the United States of 
 America, have made.  And when we screw up in our enthusiasm for truth, 
 justice, and the amurkan way, we should not blame others for the 
 consequences.  
>>>  
>>> I agree, and I also understand that you didn’t say my summary included 
>>> either the word or the theme of blaming anybody (while acknowledging that 
>>> both the political and media rhetoric is full of that).  But I want to 
>>> reiterate that apportioning blame and with it responsibility is the opening 
>>> part of a discussion, but not obviously enough to say what to do next.  It 
>>> seems to me that Mearsheimer’s argument does do an induction for what to do 
>>> next, and it is a 19th-century induction, in which a small number of actors 
>>> simply dictate what the world will do, and there should be some kind of US 
>>> retreat, after which we can conclude (?) that the Russian government will 
>>> pull back and return directly to what they were priorit

Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

2022-03-09 Thread Jochen Fromm

Sarbajit, what is the relationship of India and Russia? Is it true that Russia 
is India's biggest arms supplier?https://time.com/6154734/india-ukraine/-J.
 Original message From: Sarbajit Roy  Date: 
3/9/22  18:03  (GMT+01:00) To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee 
Group  Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Enamine What is going to happen 
in Ukraine is that Russia is going to teach Ukraine a lesson for flirting with 
the EU, NATO and western liberalism and signing that NATO document in November 
2021. Putin is going to annex the Eastern and Southern parts of Ukraine by 
setting them up as autonomous regions/states within Ukraines' boundaries as 
Russian protectorates. He is then going to make Kyiv sue for peace under his 
terms with Russia taking over some aspects of Ukraine's foreign affairs and 
defence/security (think back to the former East Germany). Putin has no 
intention of taking over Ukraine or ruling it. Russian's are very direct 
communicators (like Klingons), Putin, is doing exactly what he said he would do 
before the invasion started. This is a special military operation, not an 
invasion. The sooner Ukraine folds up the better for everyone, and especially 
the Ukranians, since it's the US and UK who are stoking the fires for their own 
selfish (war mongering defence industry) interests.  And interestingly the 
Muslim world is lining up behind the Russia-China axis as nobody really trusts 
the US and UK anymore over there.On Wed, Mar 9, 2022 at 9:57 PM Marcus Daniels 
 wrote:







EricS writes:
 
< It seems to me that Mearsheimer’s argument does do an induction for what to 
do next, and it is a 19th-century induction, in which a small number of actors 
simply dictate what the world will do, and there should be some kind of US 
retreat
 [..] >
 
There’s another option, possibly within reach, to create the conditions to have 
the current Russian government implode and give Russia the opportunity to join 
NATO.  It’s not like it hasn’t happened before.
 


From: Friam  On Behalf Of
David Eric Smith
Sent: Wednesday, March 9, 2022 3:58 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Enamine


 
It’s a good list of wrongdoings, Roger, and no argument can be sound that 
doesn’t keep it present and active.  Facts are facts.

 


I wasn’t saying I can’t follow Mearsheimer’s frame or its reasoning.  I was 
saying that the adequacy of working within the frame seems questionable and 
bothers me. To put in a metaphor where I am sure it would be better if I stuck 
to the
 particulars, it seems like a Baconian error to me: to suppose that (a subset 
of) the facts are self-interpreting.  


 


You mention:





Mearshimer's point of view is not pretty, and fairness is not part of its 
calculus, but it's the way of the world that we, the United States of America, 
have made.  And when we screw up in our enthusiasm for truth, justice, and the 
amurkan
 way, we should not blame others for the consequences.  




 

I agree, and I also understand that you didn’t say my summary included either 
the word or the theme of blaming anybody (while acknowledging that both the 
political and media rhetoric is full of that).  But I want to reiterate that 
apportioning
 blame and with it responsibility is the opening part of a discussion, but not 
obviously enough to say what to do next.  It seems to me that Mearsheimer’s 
argument does do an induction for what to do next, and it is a 19th-century 
induction, in which a small
 number of actors simply dictate what the world will do, and there should be 
some kind of US retreat, after which we can conclude (?) that the Russian 
government will pull back and return directly to what they were prioritizing in 
2012 (broader-based prosperity,
 certain conditional integrations, etc., while still operating mainly as a 
partly-kleptocratic petro-state, an economic model that is not universal and 
that does bring in other biases in what kind of governance and social structure 
are most robust).  I guess
 also that Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia will recognize that they were duped 
and quickly withdraw from NATO to become more Finland-like buffer states, and 
that an even easier decision of that kind can be reached with respect to Poland 
and Hungary, since they
 were backsliders anyway.  (I am being absurdist here because, even if one 
thought Mearsheimer’s analysis of the optimal decisions in the past are 
different from those taken, I don’t see what paths to comparable outcomes are 
available now.)


 


Here’s one take, on whether there are other dimensions outside Mearsheimer’s 
frame that bear on its adequacy.  A mock-dialogue:


 


QUESTION: Does the Russian (either) annexation or destruction of Ukraine at 
this time move the world toward or away from a rules-based system of 
international constraint?  How does an analytic answer to that serve as a 
criterion for valuing
 the event

Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

My sense is that Moscow is a sophisticated city.   One sees resistance groups 
that talk about using VPNs and so forth.  (The gal from Pussy Riot is 
periodically on CNN for example.)   I am more worried about the elites being 
completely bought off.And like North Korea, one just needs enough 
well-trained ones to nurture a weapons program.Now people that had a 
comfortable city lifestyle like in Europe or the US will have a less 
comfortable one.   Ukrainians really hate Russians now, and it is a little 
unclear how much of that is justified.  Roger is claiming the hatred IS 
justified because the Russian democracy wants this.   I have a hard time buying 
that.

From: Friam  On Behalf Of Prof David West
Sent: Wednesday, March 9, 2022 9:32 AM
To: friam@redfish.com
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

I must agree that sanctions are a feckless response to Putin's aggression, 
past, present, and future. Yes, ordinary people will suffer; both in Russia and 
in the West, but neither policy nor outcomes will be effected and certainly not 
anything resembling regime change. North Korea and Iran are exemplars for the 
(in)effectiveness of sanctions.

davew


On Wed, Mar 9, 2022, at 9:17 AM, Sarbajit Roy wrote:
Not really,
Russia is low down on the list of world economies and the Russian people are 
quite used to deprivation if they see a positive outcome soon.
Putin paints it as an "EXISTENTIAL" threat for Mother Russia which had to be 
done, no matter what.

On Wed, Mar 9, 2022 at 10:41 PM Marcus Daniels 
mailto:mar...@snoutfarm.com>> wrote:

That sounds plausible.   What I don’t see is a release of sanctions before a 
lot of damage is done to the Russian economy.   North America doesn’t really 
need the oil, although I could see Germany and others folding when winter comes 
again.   As long as the sanctions hold up, Putin is in for a world of hurt.


From: Friam mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com>> On 
Behalf Of Sarbajit Roy
Sent: Wednesday, March 9, 2022 9:02 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
mailto:friam@redfish.com>>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Enamine


What is going to happen in Ukraine is that Russia is going to teach Ukraine a 
lesson for flirting with the EU, NATO and western liberalism and signing that 
NATO document in November 2021.

Putin is going to annex the Eastern and Southern parts of Ukraine by setting 
them up as autonomous regions/states within Ukraines' boundaries as Russian 
protectorates. He is then going to make Kyiv sue for peace under his terms with 
Russia taking over some aspects of Ukraine's foreign affairs and 
defence/security (think back to the former East Germany). Putin has no 
intention of taking over Ukraine or ruling it.

Russian's are very direct communicators (like Klingons), Putin, is doing 
exactly what he said he would do before the invasion started. This is a special 
military operation, not an invasion. The sooner Ukraine folds up the better for 
everyone, and especially the Ukranians, since it's the US and UK who are 
stoking the fires for their own selfish (war mongering defence industry) 
interests.  And interestingly the Muslim world is lining up behind the 
Russia-China axis as nobody really trusts the US and UK anymore over there.



On Wed, Mar 9, 2022 at 9:57 PM Marcus Daniels 
mailto:mar...@snoutfarm.com>> wrote:

EricS writes:



< It seems to me that Mearsheimer’s argument does do an induction for what to 
do next, and it is a 19th-century induction, in which a small number of actors 
simply dictate what the world will do, and there should be some kind of US 
retreat [..] >



There’s another option, possibly within reach, to create the conditions to have 
the current Russian government implode and give Russia the opportunity to join 
NATO.  It’s not like it hasn’t happened before.


From: Friam mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com>> On 
Behalf Of David Eric Smith
Sent: Wednesday, March 9, 2022 3:58 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
mailto:friam@redfish.com>>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Enamine



It’s a good list of wrongdoings, Roger, and no argument can be sound that 
doesn’t keep it present and active.  Facts are facts.



I wasn’t saying I can’t follow Mearsheimer’s frame or its reasoning.  I was 
saying that the adequacy of working within the frame seems questionable and 
bothers me. To put in a metaphor where I am sure it would be better if I stuck 
to the particulars, it seems like a Baconian error to me: to suppose that (a 
subset of) the facts are self-interpreting.



You mention:

Mearshimer's point of view is not pretty, and fairness is not part of its 
calculus, but it's the way of the world that we, the United States of America, 
have made.  And when we screw up in our enthusiasm for truth, justice, and the 
amurkan way, we should not blame others for the consequences.



I agree, and I also understand that you didn’t say my

Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

Yes Jochen.

India is Russia;'s largest buyers of arms, followed closely by China,
India also buys a lot of spares for Soviet equipment from the former Warsaw
pact countries, many of whom are now in NATO.

After the Soviet breakup, Russia has become unreliable in supplying spares,
and the quality of spares has also gone down, with former Soviet states
giving much better quality spares to us much cheaper. Russia was also
involved in too many corrupt deals to sell their arms here, which has
backfired on them and lowered their reputation as a trusted arms supplier
to us.



On Wed, Mar 9, 2022 at 11:11 PM Jochen Fromm  wrote:

> Sarbajit, what is the relationship of India and Russia? Is it true that
> Russia is India's biggest arms supplier?
> https://time.com/6154734/india-ukraine/
>
> -J.
>
>
>  Original message 
> From: Sarbajit Roy 
> Date: 3/9/22 18:03 (GMT+01:00)
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
>
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Enamine
>
> What is going to happen in Ukraine is that Russia is going to teach
> Ukraine a lesson for flirting with the EU, NATO and western liberalism and
> signing that NATO document in November 2021.
>
> Putin is going to annex the Eastern and Southern parts of Ukraine by
> setting them up as autonomous regions/states within Ukraines' boundaries as
> Russian protectorates. He is then going to make Kyiv sue for peace under
> his terms with Russia taking over some aspects of Ukraine's foreign affairs
> and defence/security (think back to the former East Germany). Putin has no
> intention of taking over Ukraine or ruling it.
>
> Russian's are very direct communicators (like Klingons), Putin, is doing
> exactly what he said he would do before the invasion started. This is a
> special military operation, not an invasion. The sooner Ukraine folds up
> the better for everyone, and especially the Ukranians, since it's the US
> and UK who are stoking the fires for their own selfish (war mongering
> defence industry) interests.  And interestingly the Muslim world is lining
> up behind the Russia-China axis as nobody really trusts the US and UK
> anymore over there.
>
> On Wed, Mar 9, 2022 at 9:57 PM Marcus Daniels 
> wrote:
>
>> EricS writes:
>>
>>
>>
>> < It seems to me that Mearsheimer’s argument does do an induction for
>> what to do next, and it is a 19th-century induction, in which a small
>> number of actors simply dictate what the world will do, and there should be
>> some kind of US retreat [..] >
>>
>>
>>
>> There’s another option, possibly within reach, to create the conditions
>> to have the current Russian government implode and give Russia the
>> opportunity to join NATO.  It’s not like it hasn’t happened before.
>>
>>
>>
>> *From:* Friam  *On Behalf Of *David Eric Smith
>> *Sent:* Wednesday, March 9, 2022 3:58 AM
>> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
>> friam@redfish.com>
>> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Enamine
>>
>>
>>
>> It’s a good list of wrongdoings, Roger, and no argument can be sound that
>> doesn’t keep it present and active.  Facts are facts.
>>
>>
>>
>> I wasn’t saying I can’t follow Mearsheimer’s frame or its reasoning.  I
>> was saying that the adequacy of working within the frame seems questionable
>> and bothers me. To put in a metaphor where I am sure it would be better if
>> I stuck to the particulars, it seems like a Baconian error to me: to
>> suppose that (a subset of) the facts are self-interpreting.
>>
>>
>>
>> You mention:
>>
>> Mearshimer's point of view is not pretty, and fairness is not part of its
>> calculus, but it's the way of the world that we, the United States of
>> America, have made.  And when we screw up in our enthusiasm for truth,
>> justice, and the amurkan way, we should not blame others for the
>> consequences.
>>
>>
>>
>> I agree, and I also understand that you didn’t say my summary included
>> either the word or the theme of blaming anybody (while acknowledging that
>> both the political and media rhetoric is full of that).  But I want to
>> reiterate that apportioning blame and with it responsibility is the opening
>> part of a discussion, but not obviously enough to say what to do next.  It
>> seems to me that Mearsheimer’s argument does do an induction for what to do
>> next, and it is a 19th-century induction, in which a small number of actors
>> simply dictate what the world will do, and there should be some kind of US
>> retreat, after which we can conclude (?) that the Russ

Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

Well, yeah.   I’d say start flying sorties of F-16s and F-35s now, forget the 
cruddy old MiGs.   The distinctions between arms hardware supplier and arms 
services one of those rulebook distinctions for diplomats.  The rules are being 
ignored, obviously.

From: Friam  On Behalf Of Prof David West
Sent: Wednesday, March 9, 2022 9:32 AM
To: friam@redfish.com
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

I must agree that sanctions are a feckless response to Putin's aggression, 
past, present, and future. Yes, ordinary people will suffer; both in Russia and 
in the West, but neither policy nor outcomes will be effected and certainly not 
anything resembling regime change. North Korea and Iran are exemplars for the 
(in)effectiveness of sanctions.

davew

On Wed, Mar 9, 2022, at 9:17 AM, Sarbajit Roy wrote:
Not really,
Russia is low down on the list of world economies and the Russian people are 
quite used to deprivation if they see a positive outcome soon.
Putin paints it as an "EXISTENTIAL" threat for Mother Russia which had to be 
done, no matter what.

On Wed, Mar 9, 2022 at 10:41 PM Marcus Daniels 
mailto:mar...@snoutfarm.com>> wrote:

That sounds plausible.   What I don’t see is a release of sanctions before a 
lot of damage is done to the Russian economy.   North America doesn’t really 
need the oil, although I could see Germany and others folding when winter comes 
again.   As long as the sanctions hold up, Putin is in for a world of hurt.

From: Friam mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com>> On 
Behalf Of Sarbajit Roy
Sent: Wednesday, March 9, 2022 9:02 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
mailto:friam@redfish.com>>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

What is going to happen in Ukraine is that Russia is going to teach Ukraine a 
lesson for flirting with the EU, NATO and western liberalism and signing that 
NATO document in November 2021.

Putin is going to annex the Eastern and Southern parts of Ukraine by setting 
them up as autonomous regions/states within Ukraines' boundaries as Russian 
protectorates. He is then going to make Kyiv sue for peace under his terms with 
Russia taking over some aspects of Ukraine's foreign affairs and 
defence/security (think back to the former East Germany). Putin has no 
intention of taking over Ukraine or ruling it.

Russian's are very direct communicators (like Klingons), Putin, is doing 
exactly what he said he would do before the invasion started. This is a special 
military operation, not an invasion. The sooner Ukraine folds up the better for 
everyone, and especially the Ukranians, since it's the US and UK who are 
stoking the fires for their own selfish (war mongering defence industry) 
interests.  And interestingly the Muslim world is lining up behind the 
Russia-China axis as nobody really trusts the US and UK anymore over there.

On Wed, Mar 9, 2022 at 9:57 PM Marcus Daniels 
mailto:mar...@snoutfarm.com>> wrote:

EricS writes:

< It seems to me that Mearsheimer’s argument does do an induction for what to 
do next, and it is a 19th-century induction, in which a small number of actors 
simply dictate what the world will do, and there should be some kind of US 
retreat [..] >

There’s another option, possibly within reach, to create the conditions to have 
the current Russian government implode and give Russia the opportunity to join 
NATO.  It’s not like it hasn’t happened before.

From: Friam mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com>> On 
Behalf Of David Eric Smith
Sent: Wednesday, March 9, 2022 3:58 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
mailto:friam@redfish.com>>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

It’s a good list of wrongdoings, Roger, and no argument can be sound that 
doesn’t keep it present and active.  Facts are facts.

I wasn’t saying I can’t follow Mearsheimer’s frame or its reasoning.  I was 
saying that the adequacy of working within the frame seems questionable and 
bothers me. To put in a metaphor where I am sure it would be better if I stuck 
to the particulars, it seems like a Baconian error to me: to suppose that (a 
subset of) the facts are self-interpreting.

You mention:

Mearshimer's point of view is not pretty, and fairness is not part of its 
calculus, but it's the way of the world that we, the United States of America, 
have made.  And when we screw up in our enthusiasm for truth, justice, and the 
amurkan way, we should not blame others for the consequences.

I agree, and I also understand that you didn’t say my summary included either 
the word or the theme of blaming anybody (while acknowledging that both the 
political and media rhetoric is full of that).  But I want to reiterate that 
apportioning blame and with it responsibility is the opening part of a 
discussion, but not obviously enough to say what to do next.  It seems to me 
that Mearsheimer’s argument does do an induction for what to do next, and it is 
a 19th-cent

Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

Marcus if I can clarify some of this.

The "West Ukrainian" people feel BETRAYED by Russia's attack on their
country, As fraternal Slavs they did not expect it considering their past
history with Russia.

Putin is making it clear that he is not targeting the Ukrainian people, per
se, but the ZELENKSY regime personally. The "Z" stands for Zelenksy regime
which has incorporated "neo-Nazi" armed irregular divisions which fought
the East Ukranians into the regular Ukranian army.

The Russian battle against these "Nazis" will be fought in Mariuopl and
perhaps Odessa, and it will be extremely brutal and uncivilised.
Putin has also sent in mainly conscripts (although he denies it) elsewhere
as (a) it bloodies them cheaply and b) they are less brutal than his
hardened troops and foreign mercenaries who will be used in urban warfare
assaults against the southern port cities.

Lastly as a reminder, Putin was prepared for deaths of 150 of his own
civilians to take out 40 hardcore Chechen rebels in the Oct 2002 opera
house hostage crisis. Something unacceptable in the West.

Sarbajit


>
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Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

2022-03-09 Thread Jochen Fromm

Zelensky is Jewish. There are no Nazis in Ukraine. Russia behaves like Nazi 
Germany because it invades - unprovoked - an innocent democratic country. I am 
afraid you are repeating Russian state propaganda.The headline at 
theguardian.com is right now: "children buried in rubble after Russian 
airstrike on Mariupol hospital". Please tell me what kind of special military 
operation this is? Is it the one Tolstoy describes in "Special military 
operation and peace" ?-J.
 Original message From: Sarbajit Roy  Date: 
3/9/22  19:31  (GMT+01:00) To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee 
Group  Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Enamine Marcus if I can clarify 
some of this.The "West Ukrainian" people feel BETRAYED by Russia's attack on 
their country, As fraternal Slavs they did not expect it considering their past 
history with Russia.Putin is making it clear that he is not targeting the 
Ukrainian people, per se, but the ZELENKSY regime personally. The "Z" stands 
for Zelenksy regime  which has incorporated "neo-Nazi" armed irregular 
divisions which fought the East Ukranians into the regular Ukranian army.The 
Russian battle against these "Nazis" will be fought in Mariuopl and perhaps 
Odessa, and it will be extremely brutal and uncivilised.Putin has also sent in 
mainly conscripts (although he denies it) elsewhere as (a) it bloodies them 
cheaply and b) they are less brutal than his hardened troops and foreign 
mercenaries who will be used in urban warfare assaults against the southern 
port cities.Lastly as a reminder, Putin was prepared for deaths of 150 of his 
own civilians to take out 40 hardcore Chechen rebels in the Oct 2002 opera 
house hostage crisis. Something unacceptable in the West.Sarbajit






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Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

2022-03-09 Thread Frank Wimberly

CNN's headline is WHO confirms Russian attacks on 18 hospitals.  That's
World Health Organization.

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Wed, Mar 9, 2022, 11:52 AM Jochen Fromm  wrote:

> Zelensky is Jewish. There are no Nazis in Ukraine. Russia behaves like
> Nazi Germany because it invades - unprovoked - an innocent democratic
> country. I am afraid you are repeating Russian state propaganda.
>
> The headline at theguardian.com is right now: "children buried in rubble
> after Russian airstrike on Mariupol hospital". Please tell me what kind of
> special military operation this is? Is it the one Tolstoy describes in
> "Special military operation and peace" ?
>
> -J.
>
>
>  Original message 
> From: Sarbajit Roy 
> Date: 3/9/22 19:31 (GMT+01:00)
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
>
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Enamine
>
> Marcus if I can clarify some of this.
>
> The "West Ukrainian" people feel BETRAYED by Russia's attack on their
> country, As fraternal Slavs they did not expect it considering their past
> history with Russia.
>
> Putin is making it clear that he is not targeting the Ukrainian people,
> per se, but the ZELENKSY regime personally. The "Z" stands for Zelenksy
> regime  which has incorporated "neo-Nazi" armed irregular divisions which
> fought the East Ukranians into the regular Ukranian army.
>
> The Russian battle against these "Nazis" will be fought in Mariuopl and
> perhaps Odessa, and it will be extremely brutal and uncivilised.
> Putin has also sent in mainly conscripts (although he denies it) elsewhere
> as (a) it bloodies them cheaply and b) they are less brutal than his
> hardened troops and foreign mercenaries who will be used in urban warfare
> assaults against the southern port cities.
>
> Lastly as a reminder, Putin was prepared for deaths of 150 of his own
> civilians to take out 40 hardcore Chechen rebels in the Oct 2002 opera
> house hostage crisis. Something unacceptable in the West.
>
> Sarbajit
>
>
>>
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>>
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Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

2022-03-09 Thread Jochen Fromm

Look at this CNN video. It shows an Ukrainian who has lost 5 family members 
because his home was struck by Russian missiles. The terror on his face is 
real. An innocent civilian who has lost everything: his family and his home. If 
this is not a war, then what is? It is a war of Putin against Ukraine because 
he feels threatened by the democracy there. He wants to submit the neighboring 
country to his authoritarian rule where his opponents are poisoned, shot or 
imprisoned. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MU3wJc9WmRI-J.
 Original message From: Sarbajit Roy  Date: 
3/9/22  19:31  (GMT+01:00) To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee 
Group  Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Enamine Marcus if I can clarify 
some of this.The "West Ukrainian" people feel BETRAYED by Russia's attack on 
their country, As fraternal Slavs they did not expect it considering their past 
history with Russia.Putin is making it clear that he is not targeting the 
Ukrainian people, per se, but the ZELENKSY regime personally. The "Z" stands 
for Zelenksy regime  which has incorporated "neo-Nazi" armed irregular 
divisions which fought the East Ukranians into the regular Ukranian army.The 
Russian battle against these "Nazis" will be fought in Mariuopl and perhaps 
Odessa, and it will be extremely brutal and uncivilised.Putin has also sent in 
mainly conscripts (although he denies it) elsewhere as (a) it bloodies them 
cheaply and b) they are less brutal than his hardened troops and foreign 
mercenaries who will be used in urban warfare assaults against the southern 
port cities.Lastly as a reminder, Putin was prepared for deaths of 150 of his 
own civilians to take out 40 hardcore Chechen rebels in the Oct 2002 opera 
house hostage crisis. Something unacceptable in the West.Sarbajit






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Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

2022-03-09 Thread thompnickson2

Jochen, 

 

There are no Nazis in Ukraine.

 

Perhaps a bridge too far?  I regret to say that there are SOME nazis in 
Ukraine.   Evidence: an npr (?) reporter embedded with them.  Perhaps not more 
than there are in the US, or Germany, at the moment.  But they are there, they 
are, many of them battle hardened, and they are fighting on “our” side.  For 
good or ill.   I say this because eventually one of them will turn up on State 
TV in Moscow, and we have to be prepared for that.  

 

n

 

Nick Thompson

 <mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com> thompnicks...@gmail.com

 <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> 
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

From: Friam  On Behalf Of Jochen Fromm
Sent: Wednesday, March 9, 2022 12:52 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

 

Zelensky is Jewish. There are no Nazis in Ukraine. Russia behaves like Nazi 
Germany because it invades - unprovoked - an innocent democratic country. I am 
afraid you are repeating Russian state propaganda.

 

The headline at theguardian.com is right now: "children buried in rubble after 
Russian airstrike on Mariupol hospital". Please tell me what kind of special 
military operation this is? Is it the one Tolstoy describes in "Special 
military operation and peace" ?

 

-J.

 

 

 Original message 

From: Sarbajit Roy mailto:sroy...@gmail.com> > 

Date: 3/9/22 19:31 (GMT+01:00) 

To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group mailto:friam@redfish.com> > 

Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Enamine 

 

Marcus if I can clarify some of this.

The "West Ukrainian" people feel BETRAYED by Russia's attack on their country, 
As fraternal Slavs they did not expect it considering their past history with 
Russia.


Putin is making it clear that he is not targeting the Ukrainian people, per se, 
but the ZELENKSY regime personally. The "Z" stands for Zelenksy regime  which 
has incorporated "neo-Nazi" armed irregular divisions which fought the East 
Ukranians into the regular Ukranian army.


The Russian battle against these "Nazis" will be fought in Mariuopl and perhaps 
Odessa, and it will be extremely brutal and uncivilised.

Putin has also sent in mainly conscripts (although he denies it) elsewhere as 
(a) it bloodies them cheaply and b) they are less brutal than his hardened 
troops and foreign mercenaries who will be used in urban warfare assaults 
against the southern port cities.

Lastly as a reminder, Putin was prepared for deaths of 150 of his own civilians 
to take out 40 hardcore Chechen rebels in the Oct 2002 opera house hostage 
crisis. Something unacceptable in the West.

Sarbajit

 


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Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

2022-03-09 Thread glen


Yes. There's a lot of them in the US here in WA, in spite of our overwhelmingly 
blue election results. So my guess is that the accusations of Svaboda's links 
to neo-nazis is at least somewhat true. Svoboda's results are pretty small ... 
nothing like Trump's share in our elections. But non-zero is infinitely greater 
than zero.

And given Nuland's encouragement that Yatseniuk talk to Tyahnybok four times 
per week added some smoke to the conspiracy theory.

But for anyone with a shred of skeptical ability to accept Putin's "denazification" 
rhetoric is preposterous. That rhetoric is clear manipulative propaganda. If the 
"democracy" in Russia accepts that rhetoric, it's because they've been stripped of that 
skeptical ability.

On 3/9/22 11:07, thompnicks...@gmail.com wrote:

Perhaps a bridge too far?  I regret to say that there are SOME nazis in 
Ukraine.   Evidence: an npr (?) reporter embedded with them.  Perhaps not more 
than there are in the US, or Germany, at the moment.  But they are there, they 
are, many of them battle hardened, and they are fighting on “our” side.  For 
good or ill.   I say this because eventually one of them will turn up on State 
TV in Moscow, and we have to be prepared for that.




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Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

THis may help you re: the Nazi issue
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/1/who-are-the-azov-regiment

On Thu, Mar 10, 2022 at 12:22 AM Jochen Fromm  wrote:

> Zelensky is Jewish. There are no Nazis in Ukraine. Russia behaves like
> Nazi Germany because it invades - unprovoked - an innocent democratic
> country. I am afraid you are repeating Russian state propaganda.
>
> The headline at theguardian.com is right now: "children buried in rubble
> after Russian airstrike on Mariupol hospital". Please tell me what kind of
> special military operation this is? Is it the one Tolstoy describes in
> "Special military operation and peace" ?
>
> -J.
>
>
>  Original message 
> From: Sarbajit Roy 
> Date: 3/9/22 19:31 (GMT+01:00)
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
>
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Enamine
>
> Marcus if I can clarify some of this.
>
> The "West Ukrainian" people feel BETRAYED by Russia's attack on their
> country, As fraternal Slavs they did not expect it considering their past
> history with Russia.
>
> Putin is making it clear that he is not targeting the Ukrainian people,
> per se, but the ZELENKSY regime personally. The "Z" stands for Zelenksy
> regime  which has incorporated "neo-Nazi" armed irregular divisions which
> fought the East Ukranians into the regular Ukranian army.
>
> The Russian battle against these "Nazis" will be fought in Mariuopl and
> perhaps Odessa, and it will be extremely brutal and uncivilised.
> Putin has also sent in mainly conscripts (although he denies it) elsewhere
> as (a) it bloodies them cheaply and b) they are less brutal than his
> hardened troops and foreign mercenaries who will be used in urban warfare
> assaults against the southern port cities.
>
> Lastly as a reminder, Putin was prepared for deaths of 150 of his own
> civilians to take out 40 hardcore Chechen rebels in the Oct 2002 opera
> house hostage crisis. Something unacceptable in the West.
>
> Sarbajit
>
>
>>
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Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

2022-03-09 Thread Carl Tollander

Hmm, 1860's.   Treaty of Aigun, and others at the time, regarded by China
as one of many unequal treaties, since they were imposed on it when it was
weakened by internal issues.   Historically, China would only consider
negotiating treaties among equals, maybe now, since Russia and China are
best buds, China might bring up that it's time to reconsider those
treaties.  Maybe if Russia were just a bit less equal due to recent
military overextension.  Say, would be nice to have all of the Amur basin
reunified.   Not to mention all the beachfront property!

BTW, there's a lot of Ukrainians living on the Kurils, the southernmost of
which are claimed by Japan.  Wonder how they are looking at current events.

Anyhow, let's not get too Eurocentric.   Russia has a lot of border.

C



On Wed, Mar 9, 2022 at 10:48 AM Marcus Daniels  wrote:

> Well, yeah.   I’d say start flying sorties of F-16s and F-35s now, forget
> the cruddy old MiGs.   The distinctions between arms hardware supplier and
> arms services one of those rulebook distinctions for diplomats.  The rules
> are being ignored, obviously.
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam  *On Behalf Of *Prof David West
> *Sent:* Wednesday, March 9, 2022 9:32 AM
> *To:* friam@redfish.com
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Enamine
>
>
>
> I must agree that sanctions are a feckless response to Putin's aggression,
> past, present, and future. Yes, ordinary people will suffer; both in Russia
> and in the West, but neither policy nor outcomes will be effected and
> certainly not anything resembling regime change. North Korea and Iran are
> exemplars for the (in)effectiveness of sanctions.
>
>
>
> davew
>
>
>
>
>
> On Wed, Mar 9, 2022, at 9:17 AM, Sarbajit Roy wrote:
>
> Not really,
>
> Russia is low down on the list of world economies and the Russian people
> are quite used to deprivation if they see a positive outcome soon.
>
> Putin paints it as an "EXISTENTIAL" threat for Mother Russia which had to
> be done, no matter what.
>
>
>
> On Wed, Mar 9, 2022 at 10:41 PM Marcus Daniels 
> wrote:
>
> That sounds plausible.   What I don’t see is a release of sanctions before
> a lot of damage is done to the Russian economy.   North America doesn’t
> really need the oil, although I could see Germany and others folding when
> winter comes again.   As long as the sanctions hold up, Putin is in for a
> world of hurt.
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam  *On Behalf Of *Sarbajit Roy
>
> *Sent:* Wednesday, March 9, 2022 9:02 AM
>
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam@redfish.com>
>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Enamine
>
>
>
> What is going to happen in Ukraine is that Russia is going to teach
> Ukraine a lesson for flirting with the EU, NATO and western liberalism and
> signing that NATO document in November 2021.
>
>
>
> Putin is going to annex the Eastern and Southern parts of Ukraine by
> setting them up as autonomous regions/states within Ukraines' boundaries as
> Russian protectorates. He is then going to make Kyiv sue for peace under
> his terms with Russia taking over some aspects of Ukraine's foreign affairs
> and defence/security (think back to the former East Germany). Putin has no
> intention of taking over Ukraine or ruling it.
>
>
>
> Russian's are very direct communicators (like Klingons), Putin, is doing
> exactly what he said he would do before the invasion started. This is a
> special military operation, not an invasion. The sooner Ukraine folds up
> the better for everyone, and especially the Ukranians, since it's the US
> and UK who are stoking the fires for their own selfish (war mongering
> defence industry) interests.  And interestingly the Muslim world is lining
> up behind the Russia-China axis as nobody really trusts the US and UK
> anymore over there.
>
>
>
> On Wed, Mar 9, 2022 at 9:57 PM Marcus Daniels 
> wrote:
>
> EricS writes:
>
>
>
> < It seems to me that Mearsheimer’s argument does do an induction for what
> to do next, and it is a 19th-century induction, in which a small number of
> actors simply dictate what the world will do, and there should be some kind
> of US retreat [..] >
>
>
>
> There’s another option, possibly within reach, to create the conditions to
> have the current Russian government implode and give Russia the opportunity
> to join NATO.  It’s not like it hasn’t happened before.
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam  *On Behalf Of *David Eric Smith
>
> *Sent:* Wednesday, March 9, 2022 3:58 AM
>
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam@redfish.com>
>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Enamine
>
>
>
> It’s a good list of

Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

Lol!  I am all for denazification of Oregon!For those I shall draw the 
relevant foreign legion a map!
For other states, I am sure others can draw maps.

-Original Message-
From: Friam  On Behalf Of glen
Sent: Wednesday, March 9, 2022 11:10 AM
To: friam@redfish.com
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

Yes. There's a lot of them in the US here in WA, in spite of our overwhelmingly 
blue election results. So my guess is that the accusations of Svaboda's links 
to neo-nazis is at least somewhat true. Svoboda's results are pretty small ... 
nothing like Trump's share in our elections. But non-zero is infinitely greater 
than zero.

And given Nuland's encouragement that Yatseniuk talk to Tyahnybok four times 
per week added some smoke to the conspiracy theory.

But for anyone with a shred of skeptical ability to accept Putin's 
"denazification" rhetoric is preposterous. That rhetoric is clear manipulative 
propaganda. If the "democracy" in Russia accepts that rhetoric, it's because 
they've been stripped of that skeptical ability.

On 3/9/22 11:07, thompnicks...@gmail.com wrote:
> Perhaps a bridge too far?  I regret to say that there are SOME nazis in 
> Ukraine.   Evidence: an npr (?) reporter embedded with them.  Perhaps not 
> more than there are in the US, or Germany, at the moment.  But they are 
> there, they are, many of them battle hardened, and they are fighting on “our” 
> side.  For good or ill.   I say this because eventually one of them will turn 
> up on State TV in Moscow, and we have to be prepared for that.

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Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

2022-03-09 Thread glen


Sheesh. We have so many neo-nazis in our US forces the Azov regiment looks like 
kids playing cowboys and indians (no offense intended). We've even had to 
commission well-funded efforts not only to root them out, but also to sideline 
the radicalization of new recruits. Combine that with the III%ers and Oath 
Keepers who are actively trying to infiltrate all branches of our government 
and these piddly little accusations in that Aljazeera article are laughable, 
true or not.

Top that off with "the enemy of my enemy is my friend", which is a solid 
element of any conflict, and I don't see that much wrong as long as the nazis are 
fighting the equally toxic Russians.

But, again, Putin's denazification is ridiculous as justification for bombing 
infrastructure and civilian targets.

On 3/9/22 11:22, Sarbajit Roy wrote:

THis may help you re: the Nazi issue
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/1/who-are-the-azov-regiment 





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Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

Jochen

Actually this CNN video supports my observations that ordinary Ukrainians
simply can't understand the "geo-political" reasons why Russia is attacking
them. The sooner this stops the better.

All these "barbaric" assaults on civilians are part and parcel of Russian
methods and they write it off to collateral damage. In any case, Russian
missiles /rockets are not designed for precision, but to make it up in
sheer numbers.

PS: I personally have considerable knowledge of Soviet munition platforms
and their tactics, which I can't really disclose over a public forum, but
there is no way I hold a brief for the Russians or swallow their propaganda.

On Thu, Mar 10, 2022 at 12:35 AM Jochen Fromm  wrote:

> Look at this CNN video. It shows an Ukrainian who has lost 5 family
> members because his home was struck by Russian missiles. The terror on his
> face is real. An innocent civilian who has lost everything: his family and
> his home. If this is not a war, then what is? It is a war of Putin against
> Ukraine because he feels threatened by the democracy there. He wants to
> submit the neighboring country to his authoritarian rule where his
> opponents are poisoned, shot or imprisoned.
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MU3wJc9WmRI
>
> -J.
>
>
>  Original message 
> From: Sarbajit Roy 
> Date: 3/9/22 19:31 (GMT+01:00)
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
>
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Enamine
>
> Marcus if I can clarify some of this.
>
> The "West Ukrainian" people feel BETRAYED by Russia's attack on their
> country, As fraternal Slavs they did not expect it considering their past
> history with Russia.
>
> Putin is making it clear that he is not targeting the Ukrainian people,
> per se, but the ZELENKSY regime personally. The "Z" stands for Zelenksy
> regime  which has incorporated "neo-Nazi" armed irregular divisions which
> fought the East Ukranians into the regular Ukranian army.
>
> The Russian battle against these "Nazis" will be fought in Mariuopl and
> perhaps Odessa, and it will be extremely brutal and uncivilised.
> Putin has also sent in mainly conscripts (although he denies it) elsewhere
> as (a) it bloodies them cheaply and b) they are less brutal than his
> hardened troops and foreign mercenaries who will be used in urban warfare
> assaults against the southern port cities.
>
> Lastly as a reminder, Putin was prepared for deaths of 150 of his own
> civilians to take out 40 hardcore Chechen rebels in the Oct 2002 opera
> house hostage crisis. Something unacceptable in the West.
>
> Sarbajit
>
>
>>
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Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

Did NATO forget to pack surface-to-surface missiles in the goodie bag?The 
US knows where the Russian artillery forces are, and are telling the 
Ukrainians, right?
Why are they not yet Sunflowers?  It seems like the Russians are distracting 
everyone with these civilian attacks why they work for territory in the south.

From: Friam  On Behalf Of Jochen Fromm
Sent: Wednesday, March 9, 2022 11:05 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

Look at this CNN video. It shows an Ukrainian who has lost 5 family members 
because his home was struck by Russian missiles. The terror on his face is 
real. An innocent civilian who has lost everything: his family and his home. If 
this is not a war, then what is? It is a war of Putin against Ukraine because 
he feels threatened by the democracy there. He wants to submit the neighboring 
country to his authoritarian rule where his opponents are poisoned, shot or 
imprisoned.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MU3wJc9WmRI

-J.

 Original message 
From: Sarbajit Roy mailto:sroy...@gmail.com>>
Date: 3/9/22 19:31 (GMT+01:00)
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
mailto:friam@redfish.com>>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

Marcus if I can clarify some of this.
The "West Ukrainian" people feel BETRAYED by Russia's attack on their country, 
As fraternal Slavs they did not expect it considering their past history with 
Russia.

Putin is making it clear that he is not targeting the Ukrainian people, per se, 
but the ZELENKSY regime personally. The "Z" stands for Zelenksy regime  which 
has incorporated "neo-Nazi" armed irregular divisions which fought the East 
Ukranians into the regular Ukranian army.

The Russian battle against these "Nazis" will be fought in Mariuopl and perhaps 
Odessa, and it will be extremely brutal and uncivilised.
Putin has also sent in mainly conscripts (although he denies it) elsewhere as 
(a) it bloodies them cheaply and b) they are less brutal than his hardened 
troops and foreign mercenaries who will be used in urban warfare assaults 
against the southern port cities.
Lastly as a reminder, Putin was prepared for deaths of 150 of his own civilians 
to take out 40 hardcore Chechen rebels in the Oct 2002 opera house hostage 
crisis. Something unacceptable in the West.
Sarbajit

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Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

Maybe they are blocking evacuations because they make good human shields.   
Otherwise just do the obvious thing and vaporize the Russians forces once they 
settle in.

From: Friam  On Behalf Of Sarbajit Roy
Sent: Wednesday, March 9, 2022 10:30 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

Marcus if I can clarify some of this.
The "West Ukrainian" people feel BETRAYED by Russia's attack on their country, 
As fraternal Slavs they did not expect it considering their past history with 
Russia.

Putin is making it clear that he is not targeting the Ukrainian people, per se, 
but the ZELENKSY regime personally. The "Z" stands for Zelenksy regime  which 
has incorporated "neo-Nazi" armed irregular divisions which fought the East 
Ukranians into the regular Ukranian army.

The Russian battle against these "Nazis" will be fought in Mariuopl and perhaps 
Odessa, and it will be extremely brutal and uncivilised.
Putin has also sent in mainly conscripts (although he denies it) elsewhere as 
(a) it bloodies them cheaply and b) they are less brutal than his hardened 
troops and foreign mercenaries who will be used in urban warfare assaults 
against the southern port cities.
Lastly as a reminder, Putin was prepared for deaths of 150 of his own civilians 
to take out 40 hardcore Chechen rebels in the Oct 2002 opera house hostage 
crisis. Something unacceptable in the West.
Sarbajit

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Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

Sarbajit wrote:
< Lastly as a reminder, Putin was prepared for deaths of 150 of his own 
civilians to take out 40 hardcore Chechen rebels in the Oct 2002 opera house 
hostage crisis. Something unacceptable in the West.>
I think this argues against incrementalism with Putin.

Marcus

From: Friam  On Behalf Of Sarbajit Roy
Sent: Wednesday, March 9, 2022 10:30 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

Marcus if I can clarify some of this.
The "West Ukrainian" people feel BETRAYED by Russia's attack on their country, 
As fraternal Slavs they did not expect it considering their past history with 
Russia.

Putin is making it clear that he is not targeting the Ukrainian people, per se, 
but the ZELENKSY regime personally. The "Z" stands for Zelenksy regime  which 
has incorporated "neo-Nazi" armed irregular divisions which fought the East 
Ukranians into the regular Ukranian army.

The Russian battle against these "Nazis" will be fought in Mariuopl and perhaps 
Odessa, and it will be extremely brutal and uncivilised.
Putin has also sent in mainly conscripts (although he denies it) elsewhere as 
(a) it bloodies them cheaply and b) they are less brutal than his hardened 
troops and foreign mercenaries who will be used in urban warfare assaults 
against the southern port cities.
Lastly as a reminder, Putin was prepared for deaths of 150 of his own civilians 
to take out 40 hardcore Chechen rebels in the Oct 2002 opera house hostage 
crisis. Something unacceptable in the West.
Sarbajit


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Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

2022-03-09 Thread Prof David West

The US claims to be giving the Ukraine government intel "in real time" but the 
Ukraine claims, and points to several examples, that often there is a lag of 
hours to as much as a day between our knowing something and transmitting it to 
the Ukraine.

davew


On Wed, Mar 9, 2022, at 11:44 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> Did NATO forget to pack surface-to-surface missiles in the goodie bag?The 
> US knows where the Russian artillery forces are, and are telling the 
> Ukrainians, right?
> Why are they not yet Sunflowers?  It seems like the Russians are distracting 
> everyone with these civilian attacks why they work for territory in the south.
>  
> *From:* Friam  *On Behalf Of *Jochen Fromm
> *Sent:* Wednesday, March 9, 2022 11:05 AM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Enamine
> 
>  
> Look at this CNN video. It shows an Ukrainian who has lost 5 family members 
> because his home was struck by Russian missiles. The terror on his face is 
> real. An innocent civilian who has lost everything: his family and his home. 
> If this is not a war, then what is? It is a war of Putin against Ukraine 
> because he feels threatened by the democracy there. He wants to submit the 
> neighboring country to his authoritarian rule where his opponents are 
> poisoned, shot or imprisoned. 
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MU3wJc9WmRI
>  
> -J.
>  
>  
>  Original message 
> From: Sarbajit Roy 
> Date: 3/9/22 19:31 (GMT+01:00)
> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Enamine
>  
> Marcus if I can clarify some of this.
> The "West Ukrainian" people feel BETRAYED by Russia's attack on their 
> country, As fraternal Slavs they did not expect it considering their past 
> history with Russia.
> 
> Putin is making it clear that he is not targeting the Ukrainian people, per 
> se, but the ZELENKSY regime personally. The "Z" stands for Zelenksy regime  
> which has incorporated "neo-Nazi" armed irregular divisions which fought the 
> East Ukranians into the regular Ukranian army.
> 
> 
> The Russian battle against these "Nazis" will be fought in Mariuopl and 
> perhaps Odessa, and it will be extremely brutal and uncivilised.
> 
> Putin has also sent in mainly conscripts (although he denies it) elsewhere as 
> (a) it bloodies them cheaply and b) they are less brutal than his hardened 
> troops and foreign mercenaries who will be used in urban warfare assaults 
> against the southern port cities.
> Lastly as a reminder, Putin was prepared for deaths of 150 of his own 
> civilians to take out 40 hardcore Chechen rebels in the Oct 2002 opera house 
> hostage crisis. Something unacceptable in the West.
> Sarbajit
>>>  
>> 
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Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

Even the integrated tactical data links are remarkably slow compared to 
consumer CDMA.   It's amazing that the bandwidth is adequate to do anything.  
It's like old modems (2400 baud).   One could imagine have automated engagement 
programs where drone imagery would be processed to enumerate targets with 
computer vision algorithms and then send it to aircraft.   
Bit...by...bit...by..bit..  In this case, writing on sticky notes and running 
it down the hall.   I heard that Zelensky had a secure communications system 
that the U.S. provided him to talk to Biden.

From: Friam  On Behalf Of Prof David West
Sent: Wednesday, March 9, 2022 2:18 PM
To: friam@redfish.com
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

The US claims to be giving the Ukraine government intel "in real time" but the 
Ukraine claims, and points to several examples, that often there is a lag of 
hours to as much as a day between our knowing something and transmitting it to 
the Ukraine.

davew


On Wed, Mar 9, 2022, at 11:44 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:

Did NATO forget to pack surface-to-surface missiles in the goodie bag?The 
US knows where the Russian artillery forces are, and are telling the 
Ukrainians, right?

Why are they not yet Sunflowers?  It seems like the Russians are distracting 
everyone with these civilian attacks why they work for territory in the south.


From: Friam mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com>> On 
Behalf Of Jochen Fromm
Sent: Wednesday, March 9, 2022 11:05 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
mailto:friam@redfish.com>>
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Enamine



Look at this CNN video. It shows an Ukrainian who has lost 5 family members 
because his home was struck by Russian missiles. The terror on his face is 
real. An innocent civilian who has lost everything: his family and his home. If 
this is not a war, then what is? It is a war of Putin against Ukraine because 
he feels threatened by the democracy there. He wants to submit the neighboring 
country to his authoritarian rule where his opponents are poisoned, shot or 
imprisoned.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MU3wJc9WmRI



-J.





 Original message 

From: Sarbajit Roy mailto:sroy...@gmail.com>>

Date: 3/9/22 19:31 (GMT+01:00)

To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
mailto:friam@redfish.com>>

Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Enamine



Marcus if I can clarify some of this.

The "West Ukrainian" people feel BETRAYED by Russia's attack on their country, 
As fraternal Slavs they did not expect it considering their past history with 
Russia.

Putin is making it clear that he is not targeting the Ukrainian people, per se, 
but the ZELENKSY regime personally. The "Z" stands for Zelenksy regime  which 
has incorporated "neo-Nazi" armed irregular divisions which fought the East 
Ukranians into the regular Ukranian army.

The Russian battle against these "Nazis" will be fought in Mariuopl and perhaps 
Odessa, and it will be extremely brutal and uncivilised.

Putin has also sent in mainly conscripts (although he denies it) elsewhere as 
(a) it bloodies them cheaply and b) they are less brutal than his hardened 
troops and foreign mercenaries who will be used in urban warfare assaults 
against the southern port cities.

Lastly as a reminder, Putin was prepared for deaths of 150 of his own civilians 
to take out 40 hardcore Chechen rebels in the Oct 2002 opera house hostage 
crisis. Something unacceptable in the West.

Sarbajit



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Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

2022-03-09 Thread Roger Critchlow

EOs are highly
>> motivated, because their motives can be articulated, and because they have
>> the capacity for impact, that gives a kind of tautological legitimacy to
>> their wishes to stay in power and freeze industries in place, no matter
>> what the cost to those who wouldn’t share that choice.
>>
>> A country is not one thing.  Russia has clearly identifiable four large
>> groups (at least).  There are the former KGB, not necessarily ultra-wealthy
>> but accumulating wealth to try to re-establish a past government where
>> agency remains with them.  There are the oligarchs, who live as a kind of
>> parasitic outgrowth of oligarchs worldwide, but in a less productive
>> society.  Then there are the populist nationalists going around wearing Zs
>> on their shirts.  And then there are the other several layers of society
>> who could consider Boris Nemtsov a spokesman for them.  Mearsheimer’s
>> expressions “Russia wants XYZ” are, in the sense of decision makers, "the
>> KGB-cabal of Russia wants XYZ", and it can solidify a network of oligarchs
>> and Zs to backstop and facilitate the decisions in which the KGB-cabal are
>> the decisionmakers and prime movers.  That, to me, seems like a
>> foreshortened notion of what “Russia wants”.
>>
>> Of course, there is another sort of bizarre Louis XIV disease that has
>> bothered me in those who love power and live in academic places as long as
>> I have got to experience them directly.  Even if one wanted to fully adopt
>> Mearsheimer’s frame, it is only sequitur if the next 100 years,
>> ecologically and climatologically, will look more or less like the past
>> 100.  That that will not be the case is the thing we can be surest of, in
>> all this conversation.  But the power brokers, I think, haven’t
>> internalized the view that there are things in the world bigger than them.
>> In some superficial cognitive way they have, maybe, but I feel like not
>> really.
>>
>> Eric
>>
>>
>>
>> On Mar 7, 2022, at 5:05 PM, Marcus Daniels  wrote:
>>
>> I guess Mearsheimer would say this poor guy is brainwashed by his Western
>> puppet masters, or an elite acting against the interests of his (non)
>> countrymen?
>>
>>
>> *From:* Friam  *On Behalf Of *Jon Zingale
>> *Sent:* Monday, March 7, 2022 1:15 PM
>> *To:* friam@redfish.com
>> *Subject:* [FRIAM] Enamine
>>
>>
>> https://enamine.net/news-events/press-releases/1333-the-official-appeal-of-enamine-founder-and-ceo-andrey-tolmachov-to-the-drug-discovery-and-scientific-community
>> <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fenamine.net%2fnews-events%2fpress-releases%2f1333-the-official-appeal-of-enamine-founder-and-ceo-andrey-tolmachov-to-the-drug-discovery-and-scientific-community&c=E,1,7_zuyurFyFe4I5VmXYseRz4O1YKW2dXzJUpMFUJ1uKzGzmiajeukuIw86vhfy544XC4ZzJBEG8h2kU7I0OK47-XzUD_mq3Cq3wydLhJscA,,&typo=1>
>>
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Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

< And his second point is that given the balance of our actions and inactions 
in Ukraine, we created this outcome.  We encouraged the Ukrainians to thumb 
their noses at Russia and pursue integration with Europe.  >

If they want that, they can want that.If the US or the EU are prepared to 
support them in that goal, then we should be ready to pay that cost.If we 
aren’t prepared for the costs, then just state that directly.   If we are 
prepared to some of the cost by donating arms, then we can say that is our 
intent.   I don’t see a lot of evidence of deception here.   What I remember is 
Zelensky bending over backward to persuade Trump to give them the Javelins and 
Trump screwing him over.   And it looks to me like they were well received.  
https://www.saintjavelin.com/


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Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

2022-03-10 Thread Barry MacKichan


WHO’s on first?

My last year at Harvard, after all the mathmematics students had been 
matched to graduate schools, some of us were talking at lunch.

One of them was going to UCLA.
I asked, “Who’s at UCLA?”
“Yes”, he answered.

*Sze-tsen Hu wrote a book on Homotopy Theory


On 9 Mar 2022, at 14:04, Frank Wimberly wrote:

CNN's headline is WHO confirms Russian attacks on 18 hospitals.  
That's

World Health Organization.

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Wed, Mar 9, 2022, 11:52 AM Jochen Fromm  wrote:

Zelensky is Jewish. There are no Nazis in Ukraine. Russia behaves 
like

Nazi Germany because it invades - unprovoked - an innocent democratic
country. I am afraid you are repeating Russian state propaganda.

The headline at theguardian.com is right now: "children buried in 
rubble
after Russian airstrike on Mariupol hospital". Please tell me what 
kind of
special military operation this is? Is it the one Tolstoy describes 
in

"Special military operation and peace" ?

-J.


 Original message 
From: Sarbajit Roy 
Date: 3/9/22 19:31 (GMT+01:00)
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 



Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

Marcus if I can clarify some of this.

The "West Ukrainian" people feel BETRAYED by Russia's attack on their
country, As fraternal Slavs they did not expect it considering their 
past

history with Russia.

Putin is making it clear that he is not targeting the Ukrainian 
people,
per se, but the ZELENKSY regime personally. The "Z" stands for 
Zelenksy
regime  which has incorporated "neo-Nazi" armed irregular divisions 
which

fought the East Ukranians into the regular Ukranian army.

The Russian battle against these "Nazis" will be fought in Mariuopl 
and

perhaps Odessa, and it will be extremely brutal and uncivilised.
Putin has also sent in mainly conscripts (although he denies it) 
elsewhere

as (a) it bloodies them cheaply and b) they are less brutal than his
hardened troops and foreign mercenaries who will be used in urban 
warfare

assaults against the southern port cities.

Lastly as a reminder, Putin was prepared for deaths of 150 of his own
civilians to take out 40 hardcore Chechen rebels in the Oct 2002 
opera

house hostage crisis. Something unacceptable in the West.

Sarbajit




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Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

2022-03-10 Thread Frank Wimberly

That's funny.

---
Frank C. Wimberly
140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
Santa Fe, NM 87505

505 670-9918
Santa Fe, NM

On Thu, Mar 10, 2022, 10:13 AM Barry MacKichan <
barry.mackic...@mackichan.com> wrote:

> WHO’s on first?
>
> My last year at Harvard, after all the mathmematics students had been
> matched to graduate schools, some of us were talking at lunch.
> One of them was going to UCLA.
> I asked, “Who’s at UCLA?”
> “Yes”, he answered.
>
> *Sze-tsen Hu wrote a book on Homotopy Theory
>
> On 9 Mar 2022, at 14:04, Frank Wimberly wrote:
>
> CNN's headline is WHO confirms Russian attacks on 18 hospitals.  That's
> World Health Organization.
>
> ---
> Frank C. Wimberly
> 140 Calle Ojo Feliz,
> Santa Fe, NM 87505
>
> 505 670-9918
> Santa Fe, NM
>
> On Wed, Mar 9, 2022, 11:52 AM Jochen Fromm  wrote:
>
>> Zelensky is Jewish. There are no Nazis in Ukraine. Russia behaves like
>> Nazi Germany because it invades - unprovoked - an innocent democratic
>> country. I am afraid you are repeating Russian state propaganda.
>>
>> The headline at theguardian.com is right now: "children buried in rubble
>> after Russian airstrike on Mariupol hospital". Please tell me what kind of
>> special military operation this is? Is it the one Tolstoy describes in
>> "Special military operation and peace" ?
>>
>> -J.
>>
>>
>>  Original message 
>> From: Sarbajit Roy 
>> Date: 3/9/22 19:31 (GMT+01:00)
>> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
>>
>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Enamine
>>
>> Marcus if I can clarify some of this.
>>
>> The "West Ukrainian" people feel BETRAYED by Russia's attack on their
>> country, As fraternal Slavs they did not expect it considering their past
>> history with Russia.
>>
>> Putin is making it clear that he is not targeting the Ukrainian people,
>> per se, but the ZELENKSY regime personally. The "Z" stands for Zelenksy
>> regime  which has incorporated "neo-Nazi" armed irregular divisions which
>> fought the East Ukranians into the regular Ukranian army.
>>
>> The Russian battle against these "Nazis" will be fought in Mariuopl and
>> perhaps Odessa, and it will be extremely brutal and uncivilised.
>> Putin has also sent in mainly conscripts (although he denies it)
>> elsewhere as (a) it bloodies them cheaply and b) they are less brutal than
>> his hardened troops and foreign mercenaries who will be used in urban
>> warfare assaults against the southern port cities.
>>
>> Lastly as a reminder, Putin was prepared for deaths of 150 of his own
>> civilians to take out 40 hardcore Chechen rebels in the Oct 2002 opera
>> house hostage crisis. Something unacceptable in the West.
>>
>> Sarbajit
>>
>>
>>>
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We call on Biden to reject reckless demands for a no-fly zone
We deplore Russia’s aggression. However, it strains credulity to think that a
US war with Russia would make the American people safer or more prosperous
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/11/we-call-on-biden-to-reject-reckless-demands-for-a-no-fly-zone

Directly on the heels of counter-arguing with EricC about the inadequacy of hypocrisy as an
argument, this open letter "peacenick" rhetoric really gets on my nerves. The sanctions
are anemic, and damn near cowardly. The tagline to the open letter "safer or more
prosperous" is spot on. Because *that's* why we do things, right? So we can be safe and
prosperous? Safety and prosperity are the foundations of our ethics? Bullshit.

Buffers and proxy wars are the epitome of manipulative exploitation. I'm no
war-monger. But this democratic backsliding and trend toward dictators with
leaders like Modi, Orbán, Lukashenko, et al *are* the actual front line. And
that front line isn't geographical. It's ethical.

War, even nuclear, might serve as a tacit demonstration to our right-wing
friends that freedom, the word they love so much, doesn't lie in safety and
prosperity. It lies in the recognition of, and united stance against,
exploitative bullies.

We're lucky I'm not in charge, I guess. 8^D

On 3/11/22 02:49, David Eric Smith wrote:

The notion of “using” buffer states — which I hate, by the way, as an attitude
of consigning people and regions to disposability categories — as a way to
allow graded responses and stalemates from which large bully-powers could
withdraw, would have been the template for most alliance treaties.

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Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

One issue seems to be classified tech.

https://dnyuz.com/2022/03/09/screw-removal-allows-us-to-send-classified-stinger-missiles-to-ukraine/

We can always make more classified tech.

I agree completely.  Stand for something or fall for nothing.  The maximalist 
MAD scenario is a made-up thing.

On Mar 11, 2022, at 7:07 AM, glen  wrote:

We call on Biden to reject reckless demands for a no-fly zone
We deplore Russia’s aggression. However, it strains credulity to think that a 
US war with Russia would make the American people safer or more prosperous
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/11/we-call-on-biden-to-reject-reckless-demands-for-a-no-fly-zone

Directly on the heels of counter-arguing with EricC about the inadequacy of 
hypocrisy as an argument, this open letter "peacenick" rhetoric really gets on 
my nerves. The sanctions are anemic, and damn near cowardly. The tagline to the 
open letter "safer or more prosperous" is spot on. Because *that's* why we do 
things, right? So we can be safe and prosperous? Safety and prosperity are the 
foundations of our ethics? Bullshit.

Buffers and proxy wars are the epitome of manipulative exploitation. I'm no 
war-monger. But this democratic backsliding and trend toward dictators with 
leaders like Modi, Orbán, Lukashenko, et al *are* the actual front line. And 
that front line isn't geographical. It's ethical.

War, even nuclear, might serve as a tacit demonstration to our right-wing 
friends that freedom, the word they love so much, doesn't lie in safety and 
prosperity. It lies in the recognition of, and united stance against, 
exploitative bullies.

We're lucky I'm not in charge, I guess. 8^D


On 3/11/22 02:49, David Eric Smith wrote:
 The notion of “using” buffer states — which I hate, by the way, as an attitude 
of consigning people and regions to disposability categories — as a way to 
allow graded responses and stalemates from which large bully-powers could 
withdraw, would have been the template for most alliance treaties.


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Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

2022-03-11 Thread Carl Tollander

>>The maximalist MAD scenario is a made-up thing.

As are orange juice futures.  Useful as a trade instrument, but you don't
want to take delivery.

C


On Fri, Mar 11, 2022, 08:18 Marcus Daniels  wrote:

> One issue seems to be classified tech.
>
>
> https://dnyuz.com/2022/03/09/screw-removal-allows-us-to-send-classified-stinger-missiles-to-ukraine/
>
> We can always make more classified tech.
>
> I agree completely.  Stand for something or fall for nothing.  The
> maximalist MAD scenario is a made-up thing.
>
> On Mar 11, 2022, at 7:07 AM, glen  wrote:
>
> We call on Biden to reject reckless demands for a no-fly zone
> We deplore Russia’s aggression. However, it strains credulity to think
> that a US war with Russia would make the American people safer or more
> prosperous
>
> https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/11/we-call-on-biden-to-reject-reckless-demands-for-a-no-fly-zone
>
> Directly on the heels of counter-arguing with EricC about the inadequacy
> of hypocrisy as an argument, this open letter "peacenick" rhetoric really
> gets on my nerves. The sanctions are anemic, and damn near cowardly. The
> tagline to the open letter "safer or more prosperous" is spot on. Because
> *that's* why we do things, right? So we can be safe and prosperous? Safety
> and prosperity are the foundations of our ethics? Bullshit.
>
> Buffers and proxy wars are the epitome of manipulative exploitation. I'm
> no war-monger. But this democratic backsliding and trend toward dictators
> with leaders like Modi, Orbán, Lukashenko, et al *are* the actual front
> line. And that front line isn't geographical. It's ethical.
>
> War, even nuclear, might serve as a tacit demonstration to our right-wing
> friends that freedom, the word they love so much, doesn't lie in safety and
> prosperity. It lies in the recognition of, and united stance against,
> exploitative bullies.
>
> We're lucky I'm not in charge, I guess. 8^D
>
>
> On 3/11/22 02:49, David Eric Smith wrote:
>
>  The notion of “using” buffer states — which I hate, by the way, as an
> attitude of consigning people and regions to disposability categories — as
> a way to allow graded responses and stalemates from which large
> bully-powers could withdraw, would have been the template for most alliance
> treaties.
>
>
>
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Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

2022-03-11 Thread Steve Smith

On 3/11/22 8:18 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:

...
The maximalist MAD scenario is a made-up thing.

I'm not sure how to parse this. Not possible (technically) or not
likely (sociopolitically)?

Is your belief that there is no scenario where those who hold nuclear
weapons cannot launch enough to effectively wipe out humanity within
hours/days/weeks? I honestly don't know the accuracy of the public
numbers of nuclear weapons in-hand around the world, but as I remember
my last glance at those numbers they were on the order of 6K each for
US/Russia/China with hundreds in the hands of most of the other
identified nuclear powers.

If you are suggesting that the use of nuclear weapons by NATO or Russia
in this conflict would be limited to "a handful" (1, 2, 3 digits?)
exchanged from each side, and the result of *that* would result instead
in Glen's "tacit demonstration". Or your/Frank's ideation that a
significant reduction in population and a nuclear winter which could
well be what Gaia (Medea?) needs to put the scourge that is modern
humanity/civilization back in our box (for a while)? This I believe
is possible (with a huge delta on both population reduction and global
cooling reset and the myriad modes of ringing in the system that is our
biosphere).

In a 'flip' moment I might endorse this course... but it feels a little
like being an out of control skier deliberately *flinging* myself into
the trees at top speed hoping I survive the crash... possible, but only
as a true last-ditch effort. I *do* think there are political and even
technical stops in the MAD machine designed to avoid a complete emptying
of all arsenals against all other arsenals in one giant death spasm, but
I don't know what the scale of the ratcheted mini-spasms would be. The
cure that kills the patient before the malady can?

Meanwhile let's argue about the details of the tech to use H2 as a
storage/transportation alternative to fossil fuels and keep on endorsing
the stacking of the house of cards higher and higher, because after all,
like the tower of babel we will eventually get to heaven that way?
Techno-utopian paths forward seem inevitable so I *am* interested in the
details of these kinds of things, but without an equal focus on reducing
our appetite by orders of magnitude, I think we are just rearranging
deck chairs.

Bending this pretzeled thread further...

- Steve

On Mar 11, 2022, at 7:07 AM, glen wrote:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/11/we-call-on-biden-to-reject-reckless-demands-for-a-no-fly-zone

Directly on the heels of counter-arguing with EricC about the
inadequacy of hypocrisy as an argument, this open letter "peacenick"
rhetoric really gets on my nerves. The sanctions are anemic, and damn
near cowardly. The tagline to the open letter "safer or more
prosperous" is spot on. Because *that's* why we do things, right? So
we can be safe and prosperous? Safety and prosperity are the
foundations of our ethics? Bullshit.

Buffers and proxy wars are the epitome of manipulative exploitation.
I'm no war-monger. But this democratic backsliding and trend toward
dictators with leaders like Modi, Orbán, Lukashenko, et al *are* the
actual front line. And that front line isn't geographical. It's ethical.

War, even nuclear, might serve as a tacit demonstration to our
right-wing friends that freedom, the word they love so much, doesn't
lie in safety and prosperity. It lies in the recognition of, and
united stance against, exploitative bullies.

We're lucky I'm not in charge, I guess. 8^D

On 3/11/22 02:49, David Eric Smith wrote:
The notion of “using” buffer states — which I hate, by the way, as
an attitude of consigning people and regions to disposability
categories — as a way to allow graded responses and stalemates from
which large bully-powers could withdraw, would have been the
template for most alliance treaties.

.-- .- -. - / .- -.-. - .. --- -. ..--.. / -.-. --- -. .--- ..- --.
.- - .

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Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

< Meanwhile let's argue about the details of the tech to use H2 as a 
storage/transportation alternative to fossil fuels and keep on endorsing the 
stacking of the house of cards higher and higher, because after all, like the 
tower of babel we will eventually get to heaven that way? Techno-utopian paths 
forward seem inevitable so I *am* interested in the details of these kinds of 
things, but without an equal focus on reducing our appetite by orders of 
magnitude, I think we are just rearranging deck chairs. >

It just irritates me when a promising system has some property that may need to 
be addressed is dismissed in some drive-by shooting sort of way.
I rarely travel and think that face-to-face communication takes away as much as 
it adds.  People pull their punches when they feel they can be punched.

Marcus

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Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

2022-03-11 Thread glen


Exactly. I'd endorse not only a no-fly zone, but also active counter attacks on 
their deployed forces like that convoy. If Sarbajit is right that the highly 
skilled forces will be largely deployed in the South and the conscripts in the 
North are mostly a sacrificable feint, then I'd even support some special 
forces boots on the ground in the South.

But I vacillate on whether we should do anything outside Ukraine territory. I suppose 
slight fuzzification of the boundary is unavoidable to some extent. I'd like to retain my 
sanctimonious conception of "defensive" action.

On 3/11/22 09:06, Marcus Daniels wrote:


I’m just saying it could go on a while.   I think Putin doesn’t give a damn 
about his armed forces, and would not treat a battlefield exchange the same way 
he would treat an attack on Moscow.



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Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

It makes some sense to get the Russian forces overextended and then ramp up an 
insurgency.He will spend a ton of money that he doesn't have.  
To keep the high moral ground, it is better if he escalates.  For example, if 
he used a tactical nuke, then scale larger but somewhat proportionate response. 
  It could even be conventional.  Make clear to the Russian people and Russian 
leaders that he will destroy the country.  

-Original Message-
From: Friam  On Behalf Of glen
Sent: Friday, March 11, 2022 10:26 AM
To: friam@redfish.com
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

Exactly. I'd endorse not only a no-fly zone, but also active counter attacks on 
their deployed forces like that convoy. If Sarbajit is right that the highly 
skilled forces will be largely deployed in the South and the conscripts in the 
North are mostly a sacrificable feint, then I'd even support some special 
forces boots on the ground in the South.

But I vacillate on whether we should do anything outside Ukraine territory. I 
suppose slight fuzzification of the boundary is unavoidable to some extent. I'd 
like to retain my sanctimonious conception of "defensive" action.

On 3/11/22 09:06, Marcus Daniels wrote:
> 
> I’m just saying it could go on a while.   I think Putin doesn’t give a damn 
> about his armed forces, and would not treat a battlefield exchange the same 
> way he would treat an attack on Moscow.

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Re: [FRIAM] Enamine

2022-03-11 Thread Steve Smith



On 3/11/22 10:29 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:

< Meanwhile let's argue about the details of the tech to use H2 as a 
storage/transportation alternative to fossil fuels and keep on endorsing the stacking 
of the house of cards higher and higher, because after all, like the tower of babel 
we will eventually get to heaven that way? Techno-utopian paths forward seem 
inevitable so I *am* interested in the details of these kinds of things, but without 
an equal focus on reducing our appetite by orders of magnitude, I think we are just 
rearranging deck chairs. >

It just irritates me when a promising system has some property that may need to 
be addressed is dismissed in some drive-by shooting sort of way.
I rarely travel and think that face-to-face communication takes away as much as 
it adds.  People pull their punches when they feel they can be punched.


yes, the situation we are in (as always and forever really) is tricky 
business.   I accept that we need to do lots of things that can feel (to 
purists) like 2 steps forward and 3 steps sideways/back.   A partially 
hydrogen-fueled industrial/transportation system may be part of a key 
transition path away from fossil fuels and even a final residual resting 
place if magically humanity ends up in a healthy homeostasis with mother 
Gaia (and Auntie Medea appeased enough to avoid her wrath?)  That is a 
long and windy path, and it feels like both need to proceed briskly but 
also thoughtfully... that doesn't seem to be in our 
hyper-capitalist/techno-utopianist DNA?


I've lived long enough to have a lng list of "good ideas" that I 
either initiated or threw my energy behind or at least tacitly agreed 
with enough not to question, and sooo many of them have turned out to be 
actually a step in the wrong direction, that I'm feeling very skitchy 
about those kinds of solutions.


- Steve



Marcus

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