Re: [FRIAM] numbers

[Carl Tollander]

I invite those who think 87507 to be "poor" to take a Sunday drive through
Tierra Contenta or south of the airport/west of 599.   Say, out by the polo
field.



On Mon, Nov 2, 2020 at 12:27 PM  wrote:

> Thanks, Glen, I think the relevant data line was POP100, although I don't
> know why "100".  In a  sane world, that would be the population in
> hundreds, but that would give our zip code a population of 4.5 million,
> which seems a bit  heavy.  In any case, for those of  you following case
> increments by zip code, here are some denominators as of 2010, as well as
> the most recent per day 7 day increments. .  The second two columns are
> deviation are expectation and deviation.  No surprises there, except that
> there seems to be a bit of a run of cases out by the golf course.  507 has
> a third more cases than it should have, which demonstrates once again that
> it's better for your health to be rich than poor.  *Caveat emptor:* these
> calculations were done literally on the back of an envelope by an 82 year
> old guy with poor eyesight and C's in math.
>
>
>
> 501 - 15,147  - 13% - 02.3c - 4  -
>
> 505 - 31,013  - 25% - 06.0   - 8  -
>
> 506 - 12, 580 - 09% - 05.5   - 3 +
>
> 507 - 45, 890 - 38% - 18.0   - 12 ++
>
> 508 - 18, 183 - 15% - 01.5  -  5 -
>
>
>
> Nick
>
>
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> thompnicks...@gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> -Original Message-
> From: Friam  On Behalf Of u?l? ???
> Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 12:08 PM
> To: FriAM 
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] numbers
>
>
>
> And if you don't want to download a huge file, you can use the census web
> app:
>
>
>
> E.g. for my zip code (98502):
>
>
>
>
> https://tigerweb.geo.census.gov/arcgis/rest/services/TIGERweb/PUMA_TAD_TAZ_UGA_ZCTA/MapServer/7/query?where=ZCTA5%3D%2798502%27&text=&objectIds=&time=&geometry=&geometryType=esriGeometryEnvelope&inSR=&spatialRel=esriSpatialRelIntersects&relationParam=&outFields=*&returnGeometry=false&returnTrueCurves=false&maxAllowableOffset=&geometryPrecision=&outSR=&returnIdsOnly=false&returnCountOnly=false&orderByFields=&groupByFieldsForStatistics=&outStatistics=&returnZ=false&returnM=false&gdbVersion=&returnDistinctValues=false&resultOffset=&resultRecordCount=&queryByDistance=&returnExtentsOnly=false&datumTransformation=¶meterValues=&rangeValues=&f=html
>
>
>
> I'd say this is an excellent example of government transparency.
>
>
>
> On 11/2/20 9:08 AM, Barry MacKichan wrote:
>
> > One of the first search hits is
>
> > https://www.kaggle.com/census/us-population-by-zip-code
>
> > <https://www.kaggle.com/census/us-population-by-zip-code>
>
> > —Barry
>
> >
>
> > On 2 Nov 2020, at 11:59, thompnicks...@gmail.com wrote:
>
> >
>
> > Is it possible to get population by zipcode?  It seems like it’s
>
> > proprietary info.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > How’s that for government transparency!
>
>
>
> --
>
> ↙↙↙ uǝlƃ
>
>
>
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Re: [FRIAM] numbers

[David Eric Smith]

It’s an interesting question what summary statistic would be informative across 
the several dimensions of context in demography.  Total numbers are not by 
themselves, but neither are fractions.

Here’s my candidate, though it would require a parametric model of some sort:

Complementary cumulative probability: what is the probability a typical person 
in a given locale can get through a day and _not_ spend 15 minutes inhaling 
SARS-COV2 (at or above some threshold density)?

If crowd density is higher for a typical person (people in high-rises), the 
probability rapidly goes down with increasing average infection rate, while at 
low density (people in spread-out single-family dwellings) it goes down as a 
smaller power.  The probability you can avoid the hazards also depends on 
connectivity and the likelihood that any given person can impact several 
environments.

Not easy to estimate, but not wildly harder at zeroth order than the kinds of 
models epidemiologists already make.  It takes advantage of the invariants of 
the problem: every person lives 24 hours per day, and typically takes some part 
of a week to get sick and a couple of weeks to recover (with a distribution one 
could include if desired).  So the bottom line for an individual anywhere is: 
what chance do I have of not being part of some chain of transmission.

Eric



> On Nov 2, 2020, at 11:31 AM, Barry MacKichan  
> wrote:
> 
> The other thing that has me tearing out my hair (really a serious problem at 
> this point) is the maps where they shade the state or county by the cases or 
> deaths relative to the population. The rates are correct, but a high rate in 
> Elko County, Nevada hits you eye but the same rate in King County, New York 
> (aka Manhattan) is almost invisible.
> —Barry
> 
> On 2 Nov 2020, at 11:09, Tom Johnson wrote:
> 
> Both numbers may be accurate but not particularly helpful bcs they lack 
> context. One would have to start with, at least, a ratio of cases to some 
> level of population, per 10,000 or 100,000,etc. 
> 
> It drives me nuts that the state's health department or somebody publishes 
> daily cases by ZIP without showing the population of those ZIPs. And then 
> newspapers like the New Mexican publish the case numbers without context. 
> T. 
> 
> On Mon, Nov 2, 2020, 9:01 AM Prof David West  > wrote:
> Which is scarier?
> 
>   -- 41 out of 50 states show an increase in COVID cases.
>   -- 105 out of 3,141 counties show an increase in COVID cases.
> 
> Which is more accurate?
> 
> Which number should guide policy?
> 
> davew
> 
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Re: [FRIAM] numbers

[thompnickson2]

Oh, Gawd.  I better put my proton shields up.  Glen is grumpy.  

n

Nicholas Thompson
Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
Clark University
thompnicks...@gmail.com
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
 


-Original Message-
From: Friam  On Behalf Of u?l? ???
Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 1:57 PM
To: friam@redfish.com
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] numbers

And to make matters worse, we won't be able to trust the Census 2020 data 
*either* because they're cutting it off early:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/13/us/supreme-court-census.html

All models are always wrong. Applying the population divisor, which is a wrong 
model, over the top of your wrong model (cases) produces an even more wrong, 
wrong model. But false models atop false models sure is USEFUL.

Which brings me to a post I thought about making last week: ad hominem *as* 
critical thinking. I may find the time to make that post if I'm lucky.


On 11/2/20 11:46 AM, Tom Johnson wrote:
> Nick:
> I would suggest that the 2010 population data is pretty thin for analysis.  
> Off the top of my head, our 87505 ZIP has about 25k people as of 2019.  ZIP 
> 87507 has about 50k.  Hence the crying need for an appropriate denominator 
> when looking at cases by ZIP.

--
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Re: [FRIAM] numbers

[uǝlƃ ↙↙↙]

And to make matters worse, we won't be able to trust the Census 2020 data 
*either* because they're cutting it off early:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/13/us/supreme-court-census.html

All models are always wrong. Applying the population divisor, which is a wrong 
model, over the top of your wrong model (cases) produces an even more wrong, 
wrong model. But false models atop false models sure is USEFUL.

Which brings me to a post I thought about making last week: ad hominem *as* 
critical thinking. I may find the time to make that post if I'm lucky.


On 11/2/20 11:46 AM, Tom Johnson wrote:
> Nick:
> I would suggest that the 2010 population data is pretty thin for analysis.  
> Off the top of my head, our 87505 ZIP has about 25k people as of 2019.  ZIP 
> 87507 has about 50k.  Hence the crying need for an appropriate denominator 
> when looking at cases by ZIP.

-- 
↙↙↙ uǝlƃ

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Re: [FRIAM] numbers

[Tom Johnson]

Nick, et al. -
Here's what I sent to a friend at the New Mexican in August:

*Henry:*
*I know, I know.  I'm a bit of a crank, but...*

*The online edition of the New Mexican has many data graphics that help
readers put the virus in
context:  https://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/virus/
<https://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/virus/>  *

*Yet what we see in print (p. A-4 today), with one exception,  totally
fails to supply any context for the data.  Yes, the "Daily cases reported
in New Mexico" chart supplies the necessary context of change over time.
But using space and ink to print "Positive Cases By County" or "Virus
Tracker" are, essentially, meaningless numbers without any display of
statistical normalization, i.e. cases per thousand, etc.  And perhaps most
misleading is the ZIP code map of cases by ZIP?  *

*There are ~350 ZIP codes
<https://www.newmexico-demographics.com/zip_codes_by_population> in New
Mexico.  They range in population from about 80,000 to fewer than 10.  In
our local case, ZIP 87505 has about 25,000 people while 87505 has twice as
many.  To simply see a "daily" number with an arrow tells us nothing about
the rates per TK residents or the change over time in any of those ZIPs.*

*So, I fully appreciate the shortage of staff and newshole, but (a) isn't
there some way to present the data in a more meaningful way in the print
edition and, (b) why not at least direct readers of the ink-on-paper
edition to the helpful online data at the link above?*

*Adelante,*
*Tom*



Tom Johnson - t...@jtjohnson.com
Institute for Analytic Journalism   -- Santa Fe, NM USA
505.577.6482(c)505.473.9646(h)
*NM Foundation for Open Government* <http://nmfog.org>
*Check out It's The People's Data
<https://www.facebook.com/pages/Its-The-Peoples-Data/1599854626919671>*




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On Mon, Nov 2, 2020 at 12:27 PM  wrote:

> Thanks, Glen, I think the relevant data line was POP100, although I don't
> know why "100".  In a  sane world, that would be the population in
> hundreds, but that would give our zip code a population of 4.5 million,
> which seems a bit  heavy.  In any case, for those of  you following case
> increments by zip code, here are some denominators as of 2010, as well as
> the most recent per day 7 day increments. .  The second two columns are
> deviation are expectation and deviation.  No surprises there, except that
> there seems to be a bit of a run of cases out by the golf course.  507 has
> a third more cases than it should have, which demonstrates once again that
> it's better for your health to be rich than poor.  *Caveat emptor:* these
> calculations were done literally on the back of an envelope by an 82 year
> old guy with poor eyesight and C's in math.
>
>
>
> 501 - 15,147  - 13% - 02.3c - 4  -
>
> 505 - 31,013  - 25% - 06.0   - 8  -
>
> 506 - 12, 580 - 09% - 05.5   - 3 +
>
> 507 - 45, 890 - 38% - 18.0   - 12 ++
>
> 508 - 18, 183 - 15% - 01.5  -  5 -
>
>
>
> Nick
>
>
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> thompnicks...@gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> -Original Message-
> From: Friam  On Behalf Of u?l? ???
> Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 12:08 PM
> To: FriAM 
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] numbers
>
>
>
> And if you don't want to download a huge file, you can use the census web
> app:
>
>
>
> E.g. for my zip code (98502):
>
>
>
>
> https://tigerweb.geo.census.gov/arcgis/rest/services/TIGERweb/PUMA_TAD_TAZ_UGA_ZCTA/MapServer/7/query?where=ZCTA5%3D%2798502%27&text=&objectIds=&time=&geometry=&geometryType=esriGeometryEnvelope&inSR=&spatialRel=esriSpatialRelIntersects&relationParam=&outFields=*&returnGeometry=false&returnTrueCurves=false&maxAllowableOffset=&geometryPrecision=&outSR=&returnIdsOnly=false&returnCountOnly=false&orderByFields=&groupByFieldsForStatistics=&outStatistics=&returnZ=false&returnM=false&gdbVersion=&returnDistinctValues=false&resultOffset=&resultRecordCount=&queryByDistance=&returnExtentsOnly=false&datumTransformation=¶meterValues=&rangeValues=&f=html
>
>
>
> I'

Re: [FRIAM] numbers

[Tom Johnson]

Nick:
I would suggest that the 2010 population data is pretty thin for analysis.
Off the top of my head, our 87505 ZIP has about 25k people as of 2019.  ZIP
87507 has about 50k.  Hence the crying need for an appropriate denominator
when looking at cases by ZIP.
Tom
Tom


Tom Johnson - t...@jtjohnson.com
Institute for Analytic Journalism   -- Santa Fe, NM USA
505.577.6482(c)505.473.9646(h)
*NM Foundation for Open Government* <http://nmfog.org>
*Check out It's The People's Data
<https://www.facebook.com/pages/Its-The-Peoples-Data/1599854626919671>*




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On Mon, Nov 2, 2020 at 12:27 PM  wrote:

> Thanks, Glen, I think the relevant data line was POP100, although I don't
> know why "100".  In a  sane world, that would be the population in
> hundreds, but that would give our zip code a population of 4.5 million,
> which seems a bit  heavy.  In any case, for those of  you following case
> increments by zip code, here are some denominators as of 2010, as well as
> the most recent per day 7 day increments. .  The second two columns are
> deviation are expectation and deviation.  No surprises there, except that
> there seems to be a bit of a run of cases out by the golf course.  507 has
> a third more cases than it should have, which demonstrates once again that
> it's better for your health to be rich than poor.  *Caveat emptor:* these
> calculations were done literally on the back of an envelope by an 82 year
> old guy with poor eyesight and C's in math.
>
>
>
> 501 - 15,147  - 13% - 02.3c - 4  -
>
> 505 - 31,013  - 25% - 06.0   - 8  -
>
> 506 - 12, 580 - 09% - 05.5   - 3 +
>
> 507 - 45, 890 - 38% - 18.0   - 12 ++
>
> 508 - 18, 183 - 15% - 01.5  -  5 -
>
>
>
> Nick
>
>
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> thompnicks...@gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> -Original Message-
> From: Friam  On Behalf Of u?l? ???
> Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 12:08 PM
> To: FriAM 
> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] numbers
>
>
>
> And if you don't want to download a huge file, you can use the census web
> app:
>
>
>
> E.g. for my zip code (98502):
>
>
>
>
> https://tigerweb.geo.census.gov/arcgis/rest/services/TIGERweb/PUMA_TAD_TAZ_UGA_ZCTA/MapServer/7/query?where=ZCTA5%3D%2798502%27&text=&objectIds=&time=&geometry=&geometryType=esriGeometryEnvelope&inSR=&spatialRel=esriSpatialRelIntersects&relationParam=&outFields=*&returnGeometry=false&returnTrueCurves=false&maxAllowableOffset=&geometryPrecision=&outSR=&returnIdsOnly=false&returnCountOnly=false&orderByFields=&groupByFieldsForStatistics=&outStatistics=&returnZ=false&returnM=false&gdbVersion=&returnDistinctValues=false&resultOffset=&resultRecordCount=&queryByDistance=&returnExtentsOnly=false&datumTransformation=¶meterValues=&rangeValues=&f=html
>
>
>
> I'd say this is an excellent example of government transparency.
>
>
>
> On 11/2/20 9:08 AM, Barry MacKichan wrote:
>
> > One of the first search hits is
>
> > https://www.kaggle.com/census/us-population-by-zip-code
>
> > <https://www.kaggle.com/census/us-population-by-zip-code>
>
> > —Barry
>
> >
>
> > On 2 Nov 2020, at 11:59, thompnicks...@gmail.com wrote:
>
> >
>
> > Is it possible to get population by zipcode?  It seems like it’s
>
> > proprietary info.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > How’s that for government transparency!
>
>
>
> --
>
> ↙↙↙ uǝlƃ
>
>
>
> -  . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-.  . .-. .
>
> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
>
> Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6  bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe
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Re: [FRIAM] numbers

[thompnickson2]

Thanks, Glen, I think the relevant data line was POP100, although I don't know 
why "100".  In a  sane world, that would be the population in hundreds, but 
that would give our zip code a population of 4.5 million, which seems a bit  
heavy.  In any case, for those of  you following case increments by zip code, 
here are some denominators as of 2010, as well as the most recent per day 7 day 
increments. .  The second two columns are deviation are expectation and 
deviation.  No surprises there, except that there seems to be a bit of a run of 
cases out by the golf course.  507 has a third more cases than it should have, 
which demonstrates once again that it's better for your health to be rich than 
poor.  Caveat emptor: these calculations were done literally on the back of an 
envelope by an 82 year old guy with poor eyesight and C's in math.  

 

501 - 15,147  - 13% - 02.3c - 4  -

505 - 31,013  - 25% - 06.0   - 8  -

506 - 12, 580 - 09% - 05.5   - 3 +

507 - 45, 890 - 38% - 18.0   - 12 ++

508 - 18, 183 - 15% - 01.5  -  5 -

 

Nick 

 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

thompnicks...@gmail.com

https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

-Original Message-
From: Friam  On Behalf Of u?l? ???
Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 12:08 PM
To: FriAM 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] numbers

 

And if you don't want to download a huge file, you can use the census web app:

 

E.g. for my zip code (98502):

 

https://tigerweb.geo.census.gov/arcgis/rest/services/TIGERweb/PUMA_TAD_TAZ_UGA_ZCTA/MapServer/7/query?where=ZCTA5%3D%2798502%27&text=&objectIds=&time=&geometry=&geometryType=esriGeometryEnvelope&inSR=&spatialRel=esriSpatialRelIntersects&relationParam=&outFields=*&returnGeometry=false&returnTrueCurves=false&maxAllowableOffset=&geometryPrecision=&outSR=&returnIdsOnly=false&returnCountOnly=false&orderByFields=&groupByFieldsForStatistics=&outStatistics=&returnZ=false&returnM=false&gdbVersion=&returnDistinctValues=false&resultOffset=&resultRecordCount=&queryByDistance=&returnExtentsOnly=false&datumTransformation=¶meterValues=&rangeValues=&f=html

 

I'd say this is an excellent example of government transparency.

 

On 11/2/20 9:08 AM, Barry MacKichan wrote:

> One of the first search hits is 

>  <https://www.kaggle.com/census/us-population-by-zip-code> 
> https://www.kaggle.com/census/us-population-by-zip-code 

> < <https://www.kaggle.com/census/us-population-by-zip-code> 
> https://www.kaggle.com/census/us-population-by-zip-code>

> —Barry

> 

> On 2 Nov 2020, at 11:59,  <mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com> 
> thompnicks...@gmail.com wrote:

> 

> Is it possible to get population by zipcode?  It seems like it’s 

> proprietary info.

> 

>  

> 

> How’s that for government transparency!

 

--

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Re: [FRIAM] numbers

[Tom Johnson]

Sure.  That's relatively easy:
 
https://www.mapbusinessonline.com/Solution.aspx/DemographicMapping?msclkid=330ecefd29021db98663915d73f04876&utm_source=bing&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=Campaign+%231&utm_term=demographic+data+by+zip+code&utm_content=Demographic+maps&vid=cd0e5586-e53d-4b1c-b9c2-8bb55a87109a
<https://www.mapbusinessonline.com/Solution.aspx/DemographicMapping?msclkid=330ecefd29021db98663915d73f04876&utm_source=bing&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=Campaign+%231&utm_term=demographic+data+by+zip+code&utm_content=Demographic+maps&vid=cd0e5586-e53d-4b1c-b9c2-8bb55a87109a>
and
http://zipatlas.com/us/nm/zip-code-comparison/population-density.htm

TJ


Tom Johnson - t...@jtjohnson.com
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On Mon, Nov 2, 2020 at 9:59 AM  wrote:

> Is it possible to get population by zipcode?  It seems like it’s
> proprietary info.
>
>
>
> How’s that for government transparency!
>
>
>
> N
>
>
>
> Nicholas Thompson
>
> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology
>
> Clark University
>
> thompnicks...@gmail.com
>
> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* Friam  *On Behalf Of *Barry MacKichan
> *Sent:* Monday, November 2, 2020 10:31 AM
> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <
> friam@redfish.com>
> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] numbers
>
>
>
> The other thing that has me tearing out my hair (really a serious problem
> at this point) is the maps where they shade the state or county by the
> cases or deaths relative to the population. The rates are correct, but a
> high rate in Elko County, Nevada hits you eye but the same rate in King
> County, New York (aka Manhattan) is almost invisible.
> —Barry
>
> On 2 Nov 2020, at 11:09, Tom Johnson wrote:
>
> Both numbers may be accurate but not particularly helpful bcs they lack
> context. One would have to start with, at least, a ratio of cases to some
> level of population, per 10,000 or 100,000,etc.
>
>
>
> It drives me nuts that the state's health department or somebody publishes
> daily cases by ZIP without showing the population of those ZIPs. And then
> newspapers like the New Mexican publish the case numbers without context.
>
> T.
>
>
>
> On Mon, Nov 2, 2020, 9:01 AM Prof David West  wrote:
>
> Which is scarier?
>
>   -- 41 out of 50 states show an increase in COVID cases.
>   -- 105 out of 3,141 counties show an increase in COVID cases.
>
> Which is more accurate?
>
> Which number should guide policy?
>
> davew
>
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Re: [FRIAM] numbers

[uǝlƃ ↙↙↙]

And if you don't want to download a huge file, you can use the census web app:

E.g. for my zip code (98502):

https://tigerweb.geo.census.gov/arcgis/rest/services/TIGERweb/PUMA_TAD_TAZ_UGA_ZCTA/MapServer/7/query?where=ZCTA5%3D%2798502%27&text=&objectIds=&time=&geometry=&geometryType=esriGeometryEnvelope&inSR=&spatialRel=esriSpatialRelIntersects&relationParam=&outFields=*&returnGeometry=false&returnTrueCurves=false&maxAllowableOffset=&geometryPrecision=&outSR=&returnIdsOnly=false&returnCountOnly=false&orderByFields=&groupByFieldsForStatistics=&outStatistics=&returnZ=false&returnM=false&gdbVersion=&returnDistinctValues=false&resultOffset=&resultRecordCount=&queryByDistance=&returnExtentsOnly=false&datumTransformation=¶meterValues=&rangeValues=&f=html

I'd say this is an excellent example of government transparency.

On 11/2/20 9:08 AM, Barry MacKichan wrote:
> One of the first search hits is 
> https://www.kaggle.com/census/us-population-by-zip-code 
> 
> —Barry
> 
> On 2 Nov 2020, at 11:59, thompnicks...@gmail.com wrote:
> 
> Is it possible to get population by zipcode?  It seems like it’s 
> proprietary info. 
> 
>  
> 
> How’s that for government transparency!

-- 
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Re: [FRIAM] numbers

[Barry MacKichan]

One of the first search hits is 
https://www.kaggle.com/census/us-population-by-zip-code

—Barry

On 2 Nov 2020, at 11:59, thompnicks...@gmail.com wrote:

Is it possible to get population by zipcode?  It seems like it’s 
proprietary info.




How’s that for government transparency!



N



Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

 <mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com> thompnicks...@gmail.com

 <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> 
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/






From: Friam  On Behalf Of Barry MacKichan
Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 10:31 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 


Subject: Re: [FRIAM] numbers



The other thing that has me tearing out my hair (really a serious 
problem at this point) is the maps where they shade the state or 
county by the cases or deaths relative to the population. The rates 
are correct, but a high rate in Elko County, Nevada hits you eye but 
the same rate in King County, New York (aka Manhattan) is almost 
invisible.

—Barry

On 2 Nov 2020, at 11:09, Tom Johnson wrote:

Both numbers may be accurate but not particularly helpful bcs they 
lack context. One would have to start with, at least, a ratio of cases 
to some level of population, per 10,000 or 100,000,etc.




It drives me nuts that the state's health department or somebody 
publishes daily cases by ZIP without showing the population of those 
ZIPs. And then newspapers like the New Mexican publish the case 
numbers without context.


T.



On Mon, Nov 2, 2020, 9:01 AM Prof David West <mailto:profw...@fastmail.fm> > wrote:


Which is scarier?

  -- 41 out of 50 states show an increase in COVID cases.
  -- 105 out of 3,141 counties show an increase in COVID cases.

Which is more accurate?

Which number should guide policy?

davew

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Re: [FRIAM] numbers

[thompnickson2]

Is it possible to get population by zipcode?  It seems like it’s proprietary 
info.  

 

How’s that for government transparency!

 

N 

 

Nicholas Thompson

Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology

Clark University

 <mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com> thompnicks...@gmail.com

 <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> 
https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/

 

 

From: Friam  On Behalf Of Barry MacKichan
Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 10:31 AM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group 
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] numbers

 

The other thing that has me tearing out my hair (really a serious problem at 
this point) is the maps where they shade the state or county by the cases or 
deaths relative to the population. The rates are correct, but a high rate in 
Elko County, Nevada hits you eye but the same rate in King County, New York 
(aka Manhattan) is almost invisible.
—Barry

On 2 Nov 2020, at 11:09, Tom Johnson wrote:

Both numbers may be accurate but not particularly helpful bcs they lack 
context. One would have to start with, at least, a ratio of cases to some level 
of population, per 10,000 or 100,000,etc. 

 

It drives me nuts that the state's health department or somebody publishes 
daily cases by ZIP without showing the population of those ZIPs. And then 
newspapers like the New Mexican publish the case numbers without context. 

T. 

 

On Mon, Nov 2, 2020, 9:01 AM Prof David West mailto:profw...@fastmail.fm> > wrote:

Which is scarier?

  -- 41 out of 50 states show an increase in COVID cases.
  -- 105 out of 3,141 counties show an increase in COVID cases.

Which is more accurate?

Which number should guide policy?

davew

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Re: [FRIAM] numbers

[Gary Schiltz]

For me, neither is scary. It contributes to my personal policy of avoiding
densely populated areas.

On Mon, Nov 2, 2020 at 11:01 AM Prof David West 
wrote:

> Which is scarier?
>
>   -- 41 out of 50 states show an increase in COVID cases.
>   -- 105 out of 3,141 counties show an increase in COVID cases.
>
> Which is more accurate?
>
> Which number should guide policy?
>
> davew
>
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Re: [FRIAM] numbers

[Barry MacKichan]

The other thing that has me tearing out my hair (really a serious 
problem at this point) is the maps where they shade the state or county 
by the cases or deaths relative to the population. The rates are 
correct, but a high rate in Elko County, Nevada hits you eye but the 
same rate in King County, New York (aka Manhattan) is almost invisible.

—Barry

On 2 Nov 2020, at 11:09, Tom Johnson wrote:

Both numbers may be accurate but not particularly helpful bcs they 
lack
context. One would have to start with, at least, a ratio of cases to 
some

level of population, per 10,000 or 100,000,etc.

It drives me nuts that the state's health department or somebody 
publishes
daily cases by ZIP without showing the population of those ZIPs. And 
then
newspapers like the New Mexican publish the case numbers without 
context.

T.

On Mon, Nov 2, 2020, 9:01 AM Prof David West  
wrote:



Which is scarier?

  -- 41 out of 50 states show an increase in COVID cases.
  -- 105 out of 3,141 counties show an increase in COVID cases.

Which is more accurate?

Which number should guide policy?

davew

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Re: [FRIAM] numbers

[George Duncan]

Agreed, Tom. Also, what does "increase" mean?

George Duncan
Emeritus Professor of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University
georgeduncanart.com
See posts on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram
Land: (505) 983-6895
Mobile: (505) 469-4671

My art theme: Dynamic exposition of the tension between matrix order and
luminous chaos.

"Attempt what is not certain. Certainty may or may not come later. It may
then be a valuable delusion."
>From "Notes to myself on beginning a painting" by Richard Diebenkorn.

"It's that knife-edge of uncertainty where we come alive to our truest
power." Joanna Macy.




On Mon, Nov 2, 2020 at 9:11 AM Tom Johnson  wrote:

> Both numbers may be accurate but not particularly helpful bcs they lack
> context. One would have to start with, at least, a ratio of cases to some
> level of population, per 10,000 or 100,000,etc.
>
> It drives me nuts that the state's health department or somebody publishes
> daily cases by ZIP without showing the population of those ZIPs. And then
> newspapers like the New Mexican publish the case numbers without context.
> T.
>
> On Mon, Nov 2, 2020, 9:01 AM Prof David West  wrote:
>
>> Which is scarier?
>>
>>   -- 41 out of 50 states show an increase in COVID cases.
>>   -- 105 out of 3,141 counties show an increase in COVID cases.
>>
>> Which is more accurate?
>>
>> Which number should guide policy?
>>
>> davew
>>
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>>
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Re: [FRIAM] numbers

[Marcus Daniels]

Dollars should have a positive superlinear relationship to population density 
because the risk of transmission is higher in more densely populated regions.

-Original Message-
From: Friam  On Behalf Of Prof David West
Sent: Monday, November 2, 2020 8:01 AM
To: friam@redfish.com
Subject: [FRIAM] numbers

Which is scarier?

  -- 41 out of 50 states show an increase in COVID cases.
  -- 105 out of 3,141 counties show an increase in COVID cases.

Which is more accurate?

Which number should guide policy?

davew

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Re: [FRIAM] numbers

[Tom Johnson]

Both numbers may be accurate but not particularly helpful bcs they lack
context. One would have to start with, at least, a ratio of cases to some
level of population, per 10,000 or 100,000,etc.

It drives me nuts that the state's health department or somebody publishes
daily cases by ZIP without showing the population of those ZIPs. And then
newspapers like the New Mexican publish the case numbers without context.
T.

On Mon, Nov 2, 2020, 9:01 AM Prof David West  wrote:

> Which is scarier?
>
>   -- 41 out of 50 states show an increase in COVID cases.
>   -- 105 out of 3,141 counties show an increase in COVID cases.
>
> Which is more accurate?
>
> Which number should guide policy?
>
> davew
>
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[FRIAM] numbers

[Prof David West]

Which is scarier?

  -- 41 out of 50 states show an increase in COVID cases.
  -- 105 out of 3,141 counties show an increase in COVID cases.

Which is more accurate?

Which number should guide policy?

davew

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