Re: "lesson of the cake"
I don't know if there is anyone out there who believes Jay Hanson is actually right about things. But if there is, I'd suggest you look carefully at his posting "lesson of the cake" and then take Jay to task for being so irresponsible. If Jay is right, then the survival of humanity as a species depends on us taking his dire warnings to heart and establishing the world-dictatorship he apparently sees as our only hope for survival. But the "lesson of the cake" message reads like a caricature, lampoon, or parody of his views and can only detract from his message. If the survival of our species depends on taking Jay seriously, then writing such silly messages is placing us all in danger and he should never be so irresponsible. On the other hand, I happen to think Jay is completely wrong, and would normally be pleased to at any message that confirmed that -- but even so I hate to see him make such a fool of himself. I'd still like to put his theories to the test by writing and running a similation, but that means taking him and his remarks somewhat seriously, which the "lesson of the cake" makes difficult. So, I will just ignore it, for now. Elsewhere Jay argues for his theories as if they have some genuine content and writes about "biophysical laws", by which he presumably means something empirically verifiable -- something based on verifiable facts, something we can test -- and I'd like still like to test it. I don't know if Jay is aware of it, but one of the classical sources for views like his is a book by another Jay, Jay W. Forrester -- World Dynamics, Wright-Allen Press, Cambridge, Mass., 1971. That book is a report on a simulation somewhat similar to what I have in mind, and it includes graphs which look a lot like the ones Jay Hanson makes so much of -- and has a similar conclusion, that "Obvious Responses Will Not Suffice". That's an interesting result, one that Jay Hanson should applaud and I should disagree with. But having little taste for mere argument, I'd like to see if those results hold up under a more modern approach with better data. If they do, I'll happily admit to being wrong, and just to keep me honest I'll agree to put source code and data up on the web. If Jay won't help, I'll have to dig up the data myself, but I'd prefer it if he'd stop writing these self-parodying messages that aren't any use to anyone. dpw Douglas P. Wilson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.island.net/~dpwilson/index.html
Re: "lesson of the cake"
[ By the way, this is not personal in any way. Debating this stuff on the internet is my idea of having a good time. ] From: Douglas P. Wilson <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >I hate to see him make such a fool of himself. I'd still like to put his >theories to the test by writing and running a similation, but that Everyday life IS putting my theories to the test and the results will be in soon. But one doesn't need to "run a simulation" in order to discern the nature of reality, all one needs to do is pay attention. The "lesson of the cake" simply demonstrates that one can not have his cake and eat it too. This elementary concept -- which most people would consider common sense -- is denied by economic cargo cult members: --- JUST LIKE MAGIC by Jay Hanson Once upon a time, Daddy Economist, Mommy Economist, and a litter of little Economists were in a mountain cabin, sitting in front of a small coal- burning stove to keep warm. Although most people know that when coal burns, it's gone forever, Daddy Economist isn't worried because he was trained to believe that when the coal is gone, a substitute will magically appear. So when the coal is gone, he looks around, and his furniture pops into view -- just like magic! So Daddy Economist starts breaking up his furniture and burning it in the small stove. Now the Economists must sit on the floor, but heck, it's better than the alternative: dying. Then one day, SURPRISE!!! All the furniture is nearly gone. But Daddy Economist isn't worried because he believes a substitute will magically appear. So when the furniture is gone, he starts ripping the boards off the walls of his cabin and burning them in the stove to keep warm. Now the Economists must sit on the floor very close to the stove, but heck, it's better than the alternative: dying. Then one day, SURPRISE!!! All of the cabin that will burn is gone. But Daddy Economist isn't worried. He starts pulling the clothes off his family and burning them in the stove to keep warm. Now the Economists are forced to stand right next to the stove and constantly turn, but heck, it's better than the alternative: dying. Then in a few hours, SURPRISE!!! All the Economists' clothes have been burnt in the stove. But Daddy Economist isn't worried because
"lesson of the cake"
- Original Message - From: Douglas P. Wilson <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >I'd like to write a program to run a simulation of the world economy, >first to see if Jay's conclusions follow from his own data, and then >to do a sensitivity analysis to see what are the most important >variables. No need to write a program Douglas. Here's an experiment you can try at home. #1. The candidate economist must go to a library. There they will notice spheres sitting on wooden stands. These represent the planet we live on: Earth. Spheres like Earth are by definition finite -- they only hold just so much stuff. Economists are required to memorize this key point and say it over and over, "The Earth only holds just so much stuff cause it's a sphere. The Earth only holds just so much stuff cause it's a sphere. The Earth only holds just so much stuff cause it's a sphere. ..." Economists are required to say it over and over until he or she can remember it without peeking at notes. Next, the economist is ready for his or her very first BIG scientific experiment! The economist is advised to stay calm, and be sure to get a good night's sleep before attempting the experiment. #2. Put a piece of cake on a plate. #3. Eat the cake. #4. See if you still have the cake. Economists aren't used to empirical science and will have to do the experiment (#2 through #4) a few times before the implications finally sink in. Now, write a report on the "lesson of the cake". Isn't science fun!!! Jay
Re: The Lesson of the Cake
> >Isn't science fun!!! Once they have mastered "the lesson of the cake", >economists are ready to move on to "The Lesson of the Shit". It would appear that you have already fully mastered the latter lesson. Ed Weick
The Lesson of the Cake
>>The formula is extremely simple: economic growth = dieoff > >No, Jay, it really isn't extremely simple. You just make it sound that way. >The problem the world is faced with is one of being damned if you do and >damned if you don't. Rich countries may not need growth in excess of the I am working on a twelve step program for economists, here are the first few steps: #1. The candidate economist must go to a library. There they will notice spheres sitting on wooden stands. These represent the planet we live on: Earth. Spheres like Earth are by definition finite -- they only hold just so much stuff. Economists are required to memorize this key point and say it over and over, "The Earth only holds just so much stuff cause it's a sphere. The Earth only holds just so much stuff cause it's a sphere. The Earth only holds just so much stuff cause it's a sphere. ..." Economists are required to say it over and over until he or she can remember it without peeking at notes. Next, the economist is ready for his or her very first BIG scientific experiment! The economist is advised to stay calm, and be sure to get a good night's sleep before attempting the experiment. #2. Put a piece of cake on a plate. #3. Eat the cake. #4. See if you still have the cake. Economists aren't used to empirical science and will have to do the experiment (#2 through #4) a few times before the implications finally sink in. Isn't science fun!!! Once they have mastered "the lesson of the cake", economists are ready to move on to "The Lesson of the Shit". For more lessons, subscribe to my "JunkEconomics" mailing list at: http://onelist.com/subscribe.cgi/JunkEconomics Jay - COMING SOON TO A LOCATION NEAR YOU! http://dieoff.com/page1.htm
