Re: [geo] Permanently >400 ppm?

2015-11-12 Thread John Nissen 
Hi Greg,

Yes, it is the balance between emissions and removal which has to be
changed.  Hansen says the CO2 level has to be at or below 350ppm, which is
what it was thirty years ago - with 400ppm for the CO2eq level.  The Earth
System is extremely unlikely to return of its own accord to conditions of
the Holocene norm, even with CO2 level reduced, because of what is
happening in the Arctic.  We can see from the history of the planet over
the past few million years, how the Holocene was anomalously calm, and we
can expect the Earth System to lurch towards violent change if it is not
wrestled back towards the Holocene norm, with Arctic albedo as well as
greenhouse gases restored to the levels they were, thirty years ago.  Only
then can we be confident of safe and sustainable conditions for future
generations.

Cheers, John


On Tue, Nov 10, 2015 at 7:09 PM, Greg Rau  wrote:

> More "permanence":
>
> http://www.commondreams.org/news/2015/11/09/overheated-planet-entering-uncharted-territory-frightening-speed
>
> "WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud said
> 
>  this
> means that we will "soon" be living with globally averaged CO2 levels above
> the dangerous  milestone of 400 ppm
>  "as a permanent reality."
>
> GR - is it just me, or aren't such statements forgetting that there is no
> permanence to any given ppm, e.g, the CO2 ice core record; the intra annual
> variation in ppm?  The ppm is dictated  by emissions versus removal, with
> annual emissions currently beating removal by about 50%. Whether or not
> humans can/will intervene to sufficiently change/manage this ratio dictates
> a given CO2 trajectory or "permanence".  Otherwise, barring a runaway
> greenhouse, CO2 will eventually return to pre anthropogenic levels on
> geologic time scales. Might we be able to hasten this decline in CO2? Might
> air CO2 be actively managed by human intervention?-  the answers will
> determine the planet's "permanent reality".
>
> Sent from the Rau's iPad
>
>
>
> On Nov 9, 2015, at 3:55 PM, Greg Rau  wrote:
>
>
> https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/2015/11/09/measurement-note-an-adjustment-to-the-record/
> "On Nov. 5, 2015, we made an adjustment to the Scripps Mauna Loa CO2 record
> that has the effect of increasing concentrations we have reported since
> April 2015 by 0.4 parts per million (ppm).  We made the adjustment after
> comparing our short-term calibration gases with the long-term calibration
> gases, concentrations of which have been determined manometrically.
> Comparing short- and long-term calibration gases is a normal part of the
> strategy for maintaining reliable long-term measurements.  The adjustment
> increases the likelihood that concentrations will remain above 400 ppm
> permanently after 2015."
> *– Ralph Keeling*
> GR - Unless air CO2 removal is increased and/or CO2 emissions are reduced.
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Re: [geo] Permanently >400 ppm?

2015-11-10 Thread Greg Rau 
More 
"permanence":http://www.commondreams.org/news/2015/11/09/overheated-planet-entering-uncharted-territory-frightening-speed
"WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud said this means that we will "soon" be 
living with globally averaged CO2 levels above the dangerous milestone of 400 
ppm "as a permanent reality."
GR - is it just me, or aren't such statements forgetting that there is no 
permanence to any given ppm, e.g, the CO2 ice core record; the intra annual 
variation in ppm?  The ppm is dictated  by emissions versus removal, with 
annual emissions currently beating removal by about 50%. Whether or not humans 
can/will intervene to sufficiently change/manage this ratio dictates a given 
CO2 trajectory or "permanence".  Otherwise, barring a runaway greenhouse, CO2 
will eventually return to pre anthropogenic levels on geologic time scales. 
Might we be able to hasten this decline in CO2? Might air CO2 be actively 
managed by human intervention?-  the answers will determine the planet's 
"permanent reality".
Sent from the Rau's iPad


On Nov 9, 2015, at 3:55 PM, Greg Rau  wrote:


https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/2015/11/09/measurement-note-an-adjustment-to-the-record/
"On Nov. 5, 2015, we made an adjustment to the Scripps Mauna Loa CO2 record 
that has the effect of increasing concentrations we have reported since April 
2015 by 0.4 parts per million (ppm).  We made the adjustment after comparing 
our short-term calibration gases with the long-term calibration gases, 
concentrations of which have been determined manometrically.  Comparing short- 
and long-term calibration gases is a normal part of the strategy for 
maintaining reliable long-term measurements.  The adjustment increases the 
likelihood that concentrations will remain above 400 ppm permanently after 
2015."– Ralph KeelingGR - Unless air CO2 removal is increased and/or CO2 
emissions are reduced.-- 
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